Members Daily Post: 15/02/18 (complete)

6/1 shot of interest, Section 1, Test Zone (+AW)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Kelso 

None. 

 

Leicester

2.45 – 

Colins Brother (all hncps + hncp c) w1 14 ES I3 G3 4/1 S3 WON 4/1>11/1

(S1+S5 as drifted, didn’t expect him to take that big a walk esp in small field,apols if you didn’t do the 11.00+ BFSP approach due to lack of note, bugger)

O’Maonlai (all hncps + hncp c + m1)  11/2 UP

 

Fontwell

3.10 – Rothman (m1/m2) 30 ES H1 I1 G1 10/11 S4 UP

3.45- 

Minellatillmorning (all hncps+hncp h+m1/m1) w1 ES+ H1 I3 G1 4/5 S3A S4  WON 4/5 

Prettylittlething (all hncps + m1) ES+ I1 22/1 S2 S3A S5  UP

The Green Ogre (m1) ES H3 6/1  2nd 

4.20 – 

Matrow’s Lady (all hncps + m1) ES+  7/2 S3A UP

Howlongisafoot (m1/m2) 30 ES I1 G3  18/1 S1 S2 S3 S5  PU

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 28th Jan 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 2/28,12p, -4)  (1 point win bets)

NOTES

None. Nothing I want to tip at the prices from any of today’s qualifiers on this page. A few shorties, nothing really at a price at the unexposed end, and a couple of biggies (Pretty Little Thing/Howlongisafoot) that will leave me head-scratching if they go anywhere near to winning- the sort that would leave you miffed as I can’t find any reason for why they should suddenly bounce back into form. They both just look woefully out of form and have done for at least 5 runs. No headgear/equipment changes etc. Egg at the ready. The type you would only ever back to victory with a systematic approach as they surely can’t be winning to my subjective analysis eyes! 

I looked closely at Colin’s Brother given he is a LTO winner. (well, it’s a game of odds…sent off 11/1..which was clearly too big, I thought 4s was short, shame he wasn’t that price this morning. Hopefully some of you may have had a go at that price, never be put off a drifter) That looks a hot enough little contest and he has stamina to prove, has never run at Leicester before and is on a career high mark. That may make 4/1, 9/2 look short enough/not overly generous. I suppose in that price range you want every box ticked but the yard is in form, I think he will stay, and he should run his race. He may improve further for this trip over fences. Only his 10th chase. The 58 day break is a niggle, suggests a hold up of sorts. Anyway, I’m not going to tip him, and try and remain disciplined with ‘magic formula’ horses… at least the flat isn’t too far off! Permission to shoot me 🙂 

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Horse of Interest…

2.15 Leic – Heresmynumber – 6/1 / 11/2 UP 6/1.. hmm, not much to report there, ran ok, nowhere near good enough on the day. 

I’ve had a flick through the cards with some of the ‘fact sheet’ stats/individuals in my head and this horse looks interesting on what is currently a quiet enough punting day for me. Gavin Sheehan was the ‘way in’ and if I focus on him for a moment…

-since start of 2017… when he has just 1 ride at the track, 12/1< SP… 23/90,45p, +58 BFSP all runners. 3/7,4p in Novice handicap chases. 

-the trainer… well she is 6/25,9p in Novice handicap chases (more favourable than her 3/45 or so in handicap chases), 1/2 at Leicester, 2/10,3p those making their chase debut. She is 3/12,4p all runners at the track in the last year and is 2/8,4p when teaming up with Sheehan in C4-chases-handicaps. 

I find it interesting that Gavin comes here for the one ride, and that ride being a horse making chase debut. Not necessarily the type you would drag yourself out of bed for but he has ridden him before and maybe he is relishing today’s test. I like it when trainers don’t hang around over hurdles if they think they’ve a nice chaser on their hands. This one returned from a monster lay-off two starts ago and built on that LTO. He jumped a hurdle late on very very big, as if he has done plenty of schooling over fences already. That was a decent enough run, only beaten 6l. The first few fences will tell us plenty but I suspect Gavin may be aggressive on him and it isn’t impossible he makes all, or tries to. That may depend on his jumping. It’s a weak race that won’t take much winning but he could have stacks in hand, if taking to fences. There is a strong stats case for why he may go well, a logical case also (Sheehan 1 ride at track etc), and he is a decent enough price. I’ve had a nibble but you are free to do with that as you please. A solid stats chance on paper, I’ll just hope he doesn’t unseat at the first! 

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Hmm, a couple of blanks on Wednesday but given their unexposed profiles with any luck I may back them to victory soon enough.. I really need to improve on tracking ‘tips’ (3 recent losing chase tips won on their next start…Frodon/Wakanda/Itstimeforapint… yep, unbacked!) and given the ‘notes’ horses are generally unexposed types, in theory they should improve at some point. Both of Russell’s ran their best races to date really and I’ll keep an eye on them. Some hope there I think for connections. 

The test zone jumps angles were 3/3 and added another +17 points to the pot. Good to see the A Dunn test angle get off the mark. I’ll tot up the totals asap but since Sept they have collectively performed well enough and with any luck some of you may be landing on the odd one, esp if using them as starting points. 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Angles

R Hobson (33/1< guide) 

2.25 Kelso – Dame Rose  9/2  NR

Paddy Brennan (14/1<) 

4.20 Font – Turban  9/2  UP 

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TTP All-Weather

5.55 Chelm – Tagur (m1) 14,30  H3 I1 G1 9/2 S1 S2 S4  WON 11/2 

7.30 Chelm –

Loyalty (4yo+, m1) I1 14/1 S5  UP

Arnarson (m1) ES I3 G1 S2 S3 WON 5/1 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Results Update: Summary below, link in Key to be updated asap

Weekly Results Update: Advised Strategies 5th Feb-11th Feb

Summary

Weekly TOTAL (advised strategies) (Section 1): 

  • Backing all strategy quals every time they hit a strategy: 0/23,1p, -23
  • Backing all strategy quals just once, regardless of how many strategies they hit: 0/16,1p, -16 
  • S1 (0/2,0p,-2) S2 (0/11,1p,-11) S3 (0/2,0p,-2) S3A (0/2,0p,-2) S4 (0/2,0p,-2) S5 (0/4,1p, -4)

 

NOTES (‘tips’, Section 2):  0/2,0p, -2

TEST ZONE (Jumps angles) : 0/9,3p, -9

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Weekly Article: To follow 

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

24 Responses

  1. Evening Josh.

    I’m heading over to Haydock on Saturday which is my first time. I’m looking forward to it.

    I wondered (not that you’ll take much convincing!) if you’d be able to do cast your eye over the card and try pick out a couple of winners? The card looks a decent one. The 3.15 race been the kind you relish getting stuck into! Should be a good day!

    Cheers.
    Matt M

    1. Evening Matt, I’m sure I can have a go 🙂 I’m travelling back up to Liverpool Friday afternoon, so I’ll be up early Sat to get stuck into everything properly. Haydock’s paddock may be the best feature. Fingers crossed for some decent field sizes. Best post a comment on Saturday’s post (I’ll get it up Friday) to remind me. I’m in one of my extended ‘meh’ fazes where I’m not really in form, nor totally out of it…there will be a big spike at some point! Well, that’s what I keep telling myself. I need a +90 point month like Jan 2016. Or the +120 odd Sept/Oct 2017. It’s a long game. 🙂
      Josh

  2. 3.00 kelso lucinda writes in the scottish sun,she has high hopes for big river,skinny price 6/4 thought i would just mention it

  3. A nice 12/1 winner at Lingfield but unfortunately that was the only winner today. Still we have 2pts to add to the pot.
    AW racing comes from Chelmsford tomorrow. Qualiers as follows:
    5.55 Maraakib 4/1 & Tagur 6/1
    8.00 Tasaaboq 7/1 & Rising Sunshine 4/1
    8.30 Be Bold 9/2 & Burauq 5/1
    9.00 Navajo Star 4/1 & Miss Dusky Diva 10/1
    1pt win each.

    Good Luck.

    1. Hi Ken….. My conversation with Martin yesterday got me thinking about what you were saying about applying filters when you have more time. The thing about filters is that you need to plan them in advance of there application so as you can gather the data you require. Using yesterday as an example, one of the filters I discussed was number of runners. This is a fixed parameter so it can be applied retrospectively without changing reality for obvious reasons, whereas the jockey score is a dynamic and cannot be retrospectively applied.

      A lot of the races in your sample are apprentice/conditional jockeys and many of the standard races have inexperienced riders in too. Most of these jockeys have only a few rides on any particular course so it only takes one or two wins to make a huge difference to their percentage. If the wins come after the particular race in question then you wouldn’t have had the bet. Betting talented but inexperienced jockeys before the market latches on to them can be very profitable, but you cannot afford to distort the reality of the fact that you can’t back all of them on the off chance that one of them is another Oisin Murphy. So you have to accept the fact that you will miss out on their first wins.

      Point I’m making is that if the filter you are planning is dynamic by nature you need to take that into account BEFORE you start doing the maths. From my experience many respected statisticians in the racing game do not appear to take this obvious factor into account, but with field sizes, race distance and ground conditions excepted, most every other variable we take into account when designing our filters is dynamic and should be treated accordingly.

      Tim

      1. I think race distance is important on the all weather as is the jockey. I regularly see races over the shorter distances where a horse gets a bad position and then when they hit the straight with 2F to go they cannot make up the ground. Position is all important in these races. I like Adam Kirby on the sand as he seems to get it and knows a number of jockeys just like a jog around and then try to sprint the last 2F. So re filters, and I do not have any stats to back this up, What about a filter at 8F either way and 10 runners either way? So four filters. Just a starting point really.

        1. Couldn’t agree more Martin. AW racing is as much an art when it comes to jockeyship as it is a science when it comes to speed figures. Problem with ‘art’ is it is difficult to subject it to meaningful statistical analysis. Jockeys like Kirby don’t just find themselves in the plum position to kick off the bend by accident despite being poorly drawn in the first place, but it appears to happen statistically a lot more times that it theoretically should.

          I notice that other jockeys are becoming aware of this tactic, some with more success than others, but that could be down to the fact that Kirby gets better rides because of his reputation for being a successful go to jockey for trainers that find themselves with a well handicapped horse on there yard.

          Tim

  4. anybody else come across this: since starting to use VPN only betting site i have problems with is bet365 won’t let me log in because my security software is stopping it loading scripts from unauthenticated sources , this never happened before i used VPN anyone got any ideas whats going on?

      1. cheers Roger, i know enough about internet security to bullshit a bit so had a chat with bet365 tech and they admitted as much , they said that as my security system hides my identity it looks like i’m using a VPN and they stopped probing me as we chatted 🙂 in the end i just told them i couldn’t reduce security on my PC so would just use my chromebook to place bets.

        1. They’re even more devious than that.

          Last year a friend of mine opened an account with 365 using a vpn. They allowed that process and the site only disabled when he came to use it over vpn.

          They admitted vpn was the cause. The account was allowed to continue using 4g but was restricted immediately the sign-up bonus had been used up despite being in loss.

          A good way of identifying potential ‘problem’ accounts for them.

  5. 4.20 Fakenham, Royals And Rebel’s

    A qualifier on a Charlie Mann distance and class chase micro system and which is improved when Harry Bannister is booked.

    Bets wins Places profit@sp. ROI@sp. A/E
    24 8 12 50.5 210.42 3.04

    The horse looks out of form and the distance is not optimum if his 2 previous wins are any guide although he hasn’t run over this shorter distance since chasing.
    There was a glimmer of improvement on his last run 81 days ago in a hurdle race (at least he finished) and I think we will see a much improved performance today.
    12/1 with 8 runners allows for an ew poke otherwise win only as tbh it could finish tailed off or pu.

  6. As Kenny Rogers says, “You gotta know when to hold em”, etc..
    Well today I`m playing..
    15:35 Kelso
    BRUICHLADDACH 5/1
    Brings good form to this race and has been lightly raced for a spring campaign.
    MACNCHEESE 9/1
    dissapointed when well backed at Ayr, maybe today is the take back day?

    15:45 Fontwell
    THE GREEN OGRE 6/1
    The favourite i believe is vulnerable, has had two runs back over hurdles and should be spot on now!
    NAVAJO WAR DANCE 14/1
    Needs to turn flat form over to hurdle form, if it does, will go close.

    1. i’ve dillied and dallied with Mac N Cheese but gone in for it. Dotted up by 18 lengths off 100 at Perth, runs off 117 today, Dalgleish is 4/9 in last year at Kelso in last year, 6/17 in last 5 years, Bewley 7/29 in last year, pair are 4/16 together.

  7. 4.20 Fontwell Royals And Rebel’s 12/1

    An out of form horse running over a distance which may be too short, however he is a qualifier on a Charlie Mann micro chase system which is improved when Harry Bannister is up.

    24 runs, 8 wins, 12 places, 50.5 points to sp and a 210% ROI to sp.

    I think we will see a much improved display today and 12/1 with 8 runners allows an ew poke otherwise win only as really he could flounder again.

  8. The Nick Williams and Lizzie Kelly over hurdles micro has a runner in the 2.05 FP, Monsieur Lecoq, 20/1 ish.

    I like Better Getalong, 2.25 Kel, as a horse and hope it can win today and go on to run at the festival.

    Saeed Bin Suroor sends one to Chelmsford, Beautiful Memory, 7.00.

    Loyalty, 7.30 CHE, hits some course stats at a decent price.

    Good luck.

  9. I am probably just bored on another terrible day of racing but if you look at Howlongisafoot record between 2m4.5f to 2m7.5f in handicap chases below class 2 you get a record of 211214. On top of that he get dropped 7lbs for his last run. Now like Josh said he looks woefully out of form so this is likely money I am donating but have chucked £5 e/w on him in the 16:20 at Fontwell.

    1. We shall see, not running in those ‘ideal conditions’ hasn’t been a reason for his poor run, has been beaten very early on/miles from home, on most of his recent runs. My head can’t have him but he’s had some sort of systematic stake as the odd S1/S5 will drop in where I can’t make a case, they have before, and that’s partly the point of such an approach! Maybe he just has going days, and if on one today and the rest fall in a hole, he will win. I’ll be surprised and expect him to be beat before halfway.

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