Capard King – 1 point win – 10/1 (gen)
Amiral Collonges – 1 point win – 20/1 (gen)
This race seems wide open to me where you could make a case for plenty. I wanted a couple at a price who I thought would run their race. The Ben Pauling fav may go in again but 4s seems about right, if not a little short, for one 8lb above his last winning mark, had a break, and carries 12-00. This could be the deepest chase he’s raced in also. Pauling may improve him further, can ready them, and is in cracking form. I won’t be shocked if he wins but is worth taking on I think. Whether I am taking him on with the right ones, we shall see!
Capard King… 10s just seemed a shade too big for a horse who has his ideal conditions I think and has been running well. Two starts ago he ran a decent race here over 2f further, just giving out over the last. He was upsides the winner to that point. 13 days ago he tried to make all and was still there 5 out before unseating. His jumping fell apart a little bit. Richie M takes over today and at least it is a chance- no 100% convinced a positive one! – but if he can boot him out and get him jumping, he could be the one to catch here. He doesn’t have to lead but usually races up there, which is where I like all chasers to be. He may clout one again but at 10s i’ll take a chance. He had been running as if his turn wasn’t far away, is fit, and is 18lb below his last winning mark. Jonjo is in one of his ‘is he in form or out of form’ spells. No idea. But the horse was running 13 days ago as if he were in form so that will do.
Amiral Collonges – this horse may well have lost a leg in the previous 44 days! I was surprised he was this big a price and it may indicate all is not well/there is little expectation. But at this price I couldn’t resist. He is a solid yardstick at this level, generally jumps well, stays very well, and comes here in form. His last two runs have been decent enough and on paper it’s as good, if not better, than what many in here have achieved over fences recently. There is every chance that he gets outpaced and gets out of sync with the rhythm of the race. He is better over much further. But he did run well over 3m at Market Rasen, was able to keep tabs on them, and stayed on well at the end. There is a chance of a strong pace in this if a few others go forward and their jumping holds (a bit unsure, I think Capard could lead if he is aggressive/jumps as he can) and their is a chance a few fall in a hole here, taking a few fences with them in the process. He is no forlorn hope. IF he runs his race and can lob along in mid division, he may not be far away. I just thought he looked a bit too big. If he keeps drifting I will know my fate no doubt.
Of the rest…well, where to start. Gibbes Bay is in the ‘could be anything’ category but will need to jump better than the last day and stamina an unknown. He may relish it. IF he jumps and stays he could be thrown in. Two big Ifs for 7/1 shot returning after 63 days or so. I won’t be surprised if we see better but happy to leave him. Nicholls continues in fine form. Had he jumped well/placed/’ran on’ the last day, then you’d seriously consider him. Buster Thomas is in a similar category and is another whose jumping has been suspect. It will all click one day and maybe on this better ground that will be today. He steps back up to 3m here but still has stamina to prove. Again at 7s, i wasn’t eager to dive in. But he is another unexposed on in here who could step forward. Nightline doesn’t like winning and they crawled around the last day- his jumping was a tad suspect – he is consistent and lightly raced but I wasn’t convinved enough. Too many placed efforts and I don’t know how strong that race was LTO, due to it being a small field/slow gallop to the eye. This is a different sort of test. A question mark. He may do ok. Washed Ashore…if this is ‘dead’ ground he has a question, ground outside of ‘summer good’ is an unknown. He may be fine. He has a 98 day break to overcome and his jumping was only OK when last seen. Maybe I have picked the wrong Jonjo horse but he needs to step up on previous form. He may do that here but given the break, that last run, and the fact he only has ‘summer form’ to his name so far, I was happy to leave. Good Man Vinnie is interesting. Another lightly raced one, he can be held up, and this is a deeper race than most he has encountered. Another I wasn’t totally convinced on but has the sort of profile where you can’t be shocked if they step forward.
So it is open. Probably one of those where you shouldn’t play but I can rarely help myself!
There could be 8 comments follow below and you all fancy a different horse!
GL with whatever you’re on.