Free Daily Post: 08/02/18 (TIPS/complete)

TIPS + write up

TIPS

1.55 Donc

Capard King – 1 point win – 10/1 (gen)

Amiral Collonges – 1 point win – 20/1 (gen)

 

This race seems wide open to me where you could make a case for plenty. I wanted a couple at a price who I thought would run their race. The Ben Pauling fav may go in again but 4s seems about right, if not a little short, for one 8lb above his last winning mark, had a break, and carries 12-00. This could be the deepest chase he’s raced in also. Pauling may improve him further, can ready them, and is in cracking form. I won’t be shocked if he wins but is worth taking on I think. Whether I am taking him on with the right ones, we shall see!

Capard King… 10s just seemed a shade too big for a horse who has his ideal conditions I think and has been running well. Two starts ago he ran a decent race here over 2f further, just giving out over the last. He was upsides the winner to that point. 13 days ago he tried to make all and was still there 5 out before unseating. His jumping fell apart a little bit. Richie M takes over today and at least it is a chance- no 100% convinced a positive one! – but if he can boot him out and get him jumping, he could be the one to catch here. He doesn’t have to lead but usually races up there, which is where I like all chasers to be. He may clout one again but at 10s i’ll take a chance. He had been running as if his turn wasn’t far away, is fit, and is 18lb below his last winning mark. Jonjo is in one of his ‘is he in form or out of form’ spells. No idea. But the horse was running 13 days ago as if he were in form so that will do.

Amiral Collonges – this horse may well have lost a leg in the previous 44 days! I was surprised he was this big a price and it may indicate all is not well/there is little expectation. But at this price I couldn’t resist. He is a solid yardstick at this level, generally jumps well, stays very well, and comes here in form. His last two runs have been decent enough and on paper it’s as good, if not better, than what many in here have achieved over fences recently. There is every chance that he gets outpaced and gets out of sync with the rhythm of the race. He is better over much further. But he did run well over 3m at Market Rasen, was able to keep tabs on them, and stayed on well at the end. There is a chance of a strong pace in this if a few others go forward and their jumping holds (a bit unsure, I think Capard could lead if he is aggressive/jumps as he can) and their is a chance a few fall in a hole here, taking a few fences with them in the process. He is no forlorn hope. IF he runs his race and can lob along in mid division, he may not be far away. I just thought he looked a bit too big. If he keeps drifting  I will know my fate no doubt.

Of the rest…well, where to start. Gibbes Bay is in the ‘could be anything’  category but will need to jump better than the last day and stamina an unknown. He may relish it. IF he jumps and stays he could be thrown in. Two big Ifs for 7/1 shot returning after 63 days or so. I won’t be surprised if we see better but happy to leave him. Nicholls continues in fine form. Had he jumped well/placed/’ran on’ the last day, then you’d seriously consider him. Buster Thomas is in a similar category and is another whose jumping has been suspect. It will all click one day and maybe on this better ground that will be today. He steps back up to 3m here but still has stamina to prove. Again at 7s, i wasn’t eager to dive in. But he is another unexposed on in here who could step forward. Nightline doesn’t like winning and they crawled around the last day- his jumping was a tad suspect – he is consistent and lightly raced but I wasn’t convinved enough. Too many placed efforts and I don’t know how strong that race was LTO, due to it being a small field/slow gallop to the eye. This is a different sort of test. A question mark. He may do ok. Washed Ashore…if this is ‘dead’ ground he has a question, ground outside of ‘summer good’ is an unknown. He may be fine. He has a 98 day break to overcome and his jumping was only OK when last seen. Maybe I have picked the wrong Jonjo horse but he needs to step up on previous form. He may do that here but given the break, that last run, and the fact he only has ‘summer form’ to his name so far, I was happy to leave. Good Man Vinnie is interesting. Another lightly raced one, he can be held up, and this is a deeper race than most he has encountered. Another I wasn’t totally convinced on but has the sort of profile where you can’t be shocked if they step forward.

So it is open. Probably one of those where you shouldn’t play but I can rarely help myself!

There could be 8 comments follow below and you all fancy a different horse!

GL with whatever you’re on.

 

 

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

None.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

25 Responses

  1. Good Luck with those Josh, both have solid each way chances. We did Amiral Collonges last time in a 1-2 on Boxing Day from memory and one to follow whatever happens today. On the other hand old Capard will win in turn when it jumps, especially at Donny. Solid and good chances both.

    Was just a bit narked that Donny did not put up an early Going Stick reading, appreciate covers are down but you never know what ground is really like under them and more often than not is “pudding”…

    1. I think nearly every horse in that race has some sort of ‘EW chance’ haha. IF AC runs his race, he is no 20/1 shot. But maybe they have eased off his work etc and he wont do much. On paper that seemed big – he will be staying on well at the end, just whether he is close enough when he does/has jumped well/kept tabs..at that price I can live with him doing that, i’d have been inconsolable were he to win this!
      Capard is solid.. change of jockey prob tipped me over- just something different for the horse and maybe RM can get him jumping… in general he has jumped fine the last twice, just a handful of fences each time he’s got slightly wrong..has looked a communication problem to my eye, esp LTO. Run before he jumped well but was just outstayed over 26f. We shall see.
      Ground is an uknown for all really having been under the covers!
      GL with yours, I can see the case at the odds. Another unexposed chaser.
      Josh

    2. The problem with selection in this race, is as Ian says….On different criteria i would have 4/5 choices….but it’s the unknown going…..The first race is needed to tell us what the true going will be for the rest of the card…Good to Soft is rarely the true ground state after covers have been on for a while…Football in the 60s and Cricket have used them….but til the middle covers are off. One just does not know….so BOL… i’m tempted but i think i’ll leave except for the sp2a choice.

      1. I remember the old covers. We used to have pitches resembling straw come spring.

        It does remind me of the football club Groundsman and the NH Clerk of The Course, both Midlands based, who around the same time had the idea of pouring thousands of gallons of boiling water on to frozen pitch/take-off/landings.

        Of course we all know that boiling water quickly cools and freezes and both surfaces were more use to Torvill and Dean than sports intended.

        1. Capard King 1.04
          Nautical Nitwit 1.01
          And for SP2A followers:
          Fearsome Fred 1.16
          Minella Whisper 2.12

          What a frustrating day!

          1. Indeed. I may have added a few more Fs in that final sentence haha. One of those. That’s how it goes. Very frustrating!

          2. The saying goes “if you can’t win, don’t lose”

            So; it is frustration with a little “f” as opposed to a capital “F” as the beauty of each way Betting when they lose in a photo or get nabbed on the line is “I did not win BIG but I won small”.

            From little acorns great oaks are built….and the enemy (the bookmaker) has to pay out a little.

            We will obviously be trying to win BIG but winning small is better than losing!

  2. i had this sent me today off a friend
    it makes good reading if nowt else

    HUNTINGDON 2:50 DELL’ARCA 20/1

    Trainer David Pipe is

    5 WINS from 21 RUNNERS A 24% S/R

    +16pts to SP

    10 Of the 21 placed A 48% place S/R

    With his runners in handicaps at the track since 2014.

    That record is much improved if you focus on when he just sends the one runner to the course =

    5 WINS from 11 RUNNERS A 45% S/R +25.13 pts to SP

    7 of the 11 Placed A 64% Place S/R

    Dell’ Arca is is sole runner at the course today.

    ———————————–

    TOWCESTER 2.55 FAIRY POL 9/1

    Henry Oliver is a trainer whose runners in handicaps are worth having onside at Towcester.

    Since the start of 2014

    He’s had 8 WINS from 19 RUNNERS A 42% S/R +23.93 pts to SP

    12 of the 19 have placed A 63% place S/R.

    He also is a trainer who does well with his handicap hurdle debutants =

    7 WINS from 24 RUNNERS A 29% S/R +24.5 pts to SP

    12 of the 24 have placed A 50% S/R since 2014.

    Fairy Pol is his runner in the 2m 3f handicap hurdle.

    The 5-year-old has only had the 4 starts under rules and won a maiden hurdle here over 2m back in October.

    The mare seems to be improving with her races and makes her handicap debut here.

    A mark of 117 is tough but she has scope for a bit more progress.

    At the price it might be wise to go E-W about her chance here.

    ————————–

    1. GL Cliff, yep I tipped her last night in members post ‘notes’ at 14s (20p R4) – she hit my Oliver track stats as a starting point. And then for many of the reasons you outline. Handicap debut interesting. Was worth a nibble at that price. Race may be too hot/mark too high, but an unknown and you don’t know until you try! Price seemed worth a punt. Fingers crossed

      Del’arca.. I thought they may be plotting for the Festival with him…well, he’s qualified for Pertemps I think, and his mark is in the right rang. This trip seems too short these days but you never know, I could have read him wrong! Open to attack from anything more progressive. They may be trying to get the mark down a couple lbs now while revving him up for March. Although he’ll be open to attack from plenty of younger legs there also. Some decent stats in that snippet though, cheers.

  3. I am not betting from my own pick in the 1.55 Don., but if ground was right and on my historical ratings…a true outsider would be Thoonavolla….it lies about 5 down…..but at 33/1 i’d have put a small wager on it….But you must have the right ground….If this rain falls on it now the covers are off…it could be anything….but more likely porriadge and treacle…lol.

    Tony Mc

  4. The 5.00 at Thurles looks interesting I like
    stoutly bred Mullins horses in bumpers
    who get beat FTO when held up in the pack.

    and then switch to front running 2nd time out
    Clinton Hall fits the bill held right off the pace before finishing 2nd

    13/8 is a bit shorter than I hoped for but will be watching to see if they change tactics
    now they have had a run

    This type seem to do well for him.
    They are mainly future chasers and are not usually Cheltenham,Aintree or Punchestown festival winners
    The difference between being held up in slowly run bumper
    and let these staying type make it a test of stamina is massive and their form win or lose usually
    in much improved.
    obviously there is always a chance of running into a horse with a bit of class
    in bumpers but valuable races to watch a horse who can beat this type of Mullins horse
    is often very useful.

    for example if Clinton Hill was beaten a couple of lengths today with the third way back it
    would suggest the winner was a top prospect

  5. Hi Josh
    Can’t log in Members area despite my quarterly payment been taken.
    I know you’ve posted a contact email address in posts before but could one not be on the front page for such matters?.

    1. I have emailed you… PayPal has your payment ‘pending’ until the 15th Feb for some reason! I have added you in for the next week or so at which point it will have righted itself. A very strange system sometimes!

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