Members Daily Post: 08/02/18 (complete)

Betfair hurdle trends + NOTES x1 (+ hncp debut watch) Section 1, test zone (+AW), weekly article

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Huntingdon

2.50 – Dell’Arca (m1) 14 I1  16/1  S2 S5

3.55 –

Innistree Lad (all hncps) 8/1

Braw Angus (hncp hurdle) 30 I3 8/1  UP

 

Towcester

2.55 – Fairy Pol (all hncps) 14 11/1 S2 UP

 

Doncaster

1.55-

Twojayslad (all hncps) 8/1 UP

Washed Ashore (m1) I3 9/1  S5  UP 20/1 

Capard King (m1) 9/1

3.30 –

Dueling Banjos (all hncps) 30 10/1 S2 UP

Nautical Nitwit (hncp hurdle) I3 20/1 S2 S5  2nd 

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 28th Jan 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 2/25,12p, -1)  (1 point win bets)

NOTES

2.55 Towc – Fairy Pol – 14/1 (gen)

Well this is the sort of horse, with the sort of profile, that I have to back at 14/1. I could talk myself out of her by deliberating all the other runners in the race but at this price, worth a roll of the dice. I’m sure I/we would do just fine if just backing every qualifier on this page who was also making handicap debut! Best not to over think them like I did with the Lucinda Russell winner at Musselburgh, 10/1. So yes, this one makes handicap hurdle debut. Oliver is 4/17,6p,+10 with such types in the last two years, 1/3 at the track. He is 9/30,14p, +32 in the last 5 years. At Towcester he is 10/34,17p,+25 with all runners in the last 5 years. And he is ‘in form’, 2/10,3p the last 14 days. This one has had a little break and may come here fresh having had 3 runs on the bounce in deep ground. She runs as if wanting further but this dead ground and stiff climb to the line may help. As may her light weight, compared to some others in here. She’s won a hurdle before and clearly has some ability, and most/all of the others come here with some sort of question also. Ben Pauling’s fav has an engagement at Huntingdon and jockey bookings suggest that is first preference. He looks to have a touch of class and will be a big danger if lining up. The Keighley horse needs the Wind Op to have worked, which it may well have done. She has a touch of class. I’d struggle to touch anything of Venetia’s at a short price, given her in and out form. I can’t think the Skelton horse will benefit from this drop in trip, even around here. And he has won for us already, at 16/1, making handicap hurdle debut. So really, at 14/1, I don’t want to be overthinking this. She may not be good enough, she could win well, esp if a few others flounder. I won’t go agonising in that price range. The handicap debutants will see us come out ahead over time, of that i’m fairly confident.

That’s it for ‘tips’, i’m now trying desperately hard to stick to ‘magic formula’ horses (article HERE>>) and be disciplined. I really need to up my game on the jumps front.

I will mention Viserion from the McCain test below… I had a small nibble at 18s with the system bank… this race looks like second preference for Red Indian, so my tip above has him to beat also. The race could be open enough.. the Fry horse may not actually be very good (although this is a weak race, ‘could be anything’) and Alan King’s could bounce. That horse has had so many issues it would be good to see him win and we wouldn’t begrudge him that. McCain’s hacked up two starts ago and was outpaced over 16f at Kempton, in the race won by Jenkins. There is a stamina doubt, but it is an unknown, and it isn’t impossible he improves for it (that or he won’t stay). Anyway, the market may guide and those sent off 14/1< do much the best. But if you follow that micro or keep a close eye on it, at that price I think he’s worth a tickle to find out.

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Talking of handicap debutants, you can call what follows ‘handicap debut watch’, you may wish to note/use as starting points for further analysis, the following…

Charlie Mann : 4/10,6 places with such types in the last 2 years.

  • 1.45 Hunt – The Ogle Gogle Man 8/1 .. makes handicap chase (and chase) debut here, they haven’t kept him over hurdles for long which I like. Previous point winner who should relish this step up in trip. Just a case of how he jumps i think, in what looks an open race. Harry B is on, these two are 10/31,16p, +26 when teaming up in C4 handicaps. A ‘could be anything’ horse.
  • 2.20 Towc – The Lion Dancer 20/1... Gavin Sheehan rides this one, of some interest. He is a regular for Mann if available, as is Harry B. Not much to go on but worth a closer look maybe! We shall see what ‘Lambourn Trainer’ quotes say in the morning. The market may well guide for both.

 

Gary Moore… not prolific with handicap debutants but he has his fare share and is 2/7,3p at Huntingdon. Runs ‘Now Listen Here’ 8/1, in the 1.15. (NR) Jamie on. He has another in here also who won LTO and is better fancied. But this is a shocker of a race, horse drops in trip, better ground, ‘could be anything’ and the yard is in form.

Do take a closer look at those if you wish. No doubt they’ll all fall out the telly now but from a stats perspective they are interesting! (and hit that ‘magic formula’ idea)

 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

D McCain (12/1<)

2.50 Hunt – Viserion (m2) UP

Handicap Chase ‘System’ (Starting Points) (10/1< best)

4.00 Towc – Dontminddaboys UP

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TTP All-Weather

Newcastle

4.55 – Newmarket Warrior (m1) 14 I3

Chelmsford

7.00 – De Little Engine (m1) ES S3

7.30 –

Haraz (m1) ES H3 I1 G3  S2 S3 S4

Fikhaar (m1) 14,30 I3

8.00 –

Ascot Day (all hncps) ES  S3

Reckless Endeavour (m1) ES H3 G3 S3 S5

Nautical Haven (m1) 14,30 

9.00 –

Samphire Coast (4yo+) H1 G1 S1

What Usain (m2) ES I1  S3 S6

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

A few notebook horses + a look at two distinct sets of silks and how they get on at The Festival…

Weekly Article: READ HERE>>>

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Advised Strategies Results: Updated Link in Key to follow

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Newbury: Betfair Hurdle – stats/trends/pointers:

This is a strong strong stats profile race and was one of the first handicap hurdle stats/trends profiles I posted in the members’ as a test/something extra to read etc. The winner and 2nd were highlighted I think, although short odds. In fact the winner was the only one to hit all the main stats…so…

16/19 top 3 LTO

19/19 Aged 5-7

19/19 , 11-7 max on back including any claims

10/19 Top 3 in market

10 years

10/10 aged 5/6

10-10 11-2 or less on back exc claims (0/49,7p, tentative,use weight as last resort I think!)

9/10 had WON over at least 2m 1/2 a furlong and no further than 2m1f in their careers so far

6/10 were making handicap hurdle debut

3 hurdles runs only: 5/19 runners, 5p, +16

10/10- 0-10 hurdles runs

10/10 had placed at least once on last two starts

10/10 1st or 2nd at least once on last 3 starts

10/10 0-1 handicap hurdle wins

9/10 Top 3 LTO

7/10 ran in non handicap LTO

Track LTO: Sandown (3/16) 1 x win (the rest); Leop 0/15, Ascot 0/36,6p, Kemp 0/22,4p

Trainers: Gary Moore (3/10,4p) , NTD (2/9) 1x win the rest (JJ Quinn, Nicholls,N Williams,Henderson) Mullins 0/12,0p

 

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PLEASE NOTE: I am training it down to London at around 2.30pm. A few pints of beer with Matt Bisogno and a few other online racing folk before I head onto Cambridge station later in the evening.  So, Friday’s post is most likely to be up first thing Friday morning, as will Saturday’s. I fly out to Krakow at 6pm on Friday from Stansted, helping Mr O’Leary fund some more purchases! I may get 45 mins in the departure lounge to do some work, we shall see. I’ll try and keep you posted.

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

15 Responses

  1. I am unsure which of Thursdays meetings are on or in doubt, so I will go with them being all on for now:

    1.55 DON – Powerful Symbol, 4/1 BOG at present. Two good wins in the class and Nico on board. Has to carry 12 stone though in ground described as good to soft. Could still be progressing?

    3.30 DON – Cake D’isle 11/2 BOG at present. Reasonable 2nd in the grade LTO. Jonjo trained. Well up in distance now. I also like Clondaw Native in this race but think that the 3 miles will suit the selection.

    3.20 HUN – Russborough, 7/1 BOG at present. Dropped to class 4 here. Beaten by the progressive Drumcliff LTO. Carries 12 stone but Charlie Deutsch takes 3 off on soft ground. The opposition is nothing special.

    Good luck.

  2. Well done Colin, at least you got 1 winner. Another dire day on the AW for me. The bookies have had their money back and some after we kicked their arse last week. Keep the faith, it will turn around in our favour again.
    Newcastle and Chelmsford tomorrow, the scene of our big day last week. Let’s hope for a repeat. Qualifiers as follows:
    Newcastle
    2.05 Archibelle 25/1 (ew) & Empressario 8/1
    2.40 Lexington Law 9/2
    3.10 Optima Petamus 11/2 & Gallilee Chapel 9/2
    3.45 Falcons Fire 15/2
    4.20 Rubenesque 15/2
    4.55 Cadeau Magnifique 10/1 & Sir Ottoman 25/1 (ew)

    Chelmsford
    5.55 Tigerfish 7/1 & Joys Delight 8/1
    6.30 Ocean Side 14/1
    7.30 Haraz 13/2 & Monarch Maid 9/1
    8.00 Kasbah 15/2 & Eljaddaaf 9/2
    9.00 Mister Music 4/1
    1pt win except where noted.

    Good luck

    1. Punting highs and lows summed in the space of five mins. The disappointment of CK being agonisingly beaten, to Ken pulling out a 25/1 winner. Well done Ken.

  3. Two for me tomorrow Nightline Doncaster 13:55 1pt e/w (looks a much better value bet than the favourite considering how closely they are matched not to mention the fact that the 60 day break is a concern for Powerful Symbol. Very consistent and I expect him to be thereabouts) and Fingerontheswitch 1pt e/w (back to his last winning mark; has won here; better ground will suit; a lot of these appear to be on recovery missions or are untested at the trip; Fehily has a great record here with Mullholland and a solid one on the horse)

  4. Glad there is some jump racing on today.

    13:55 Doncaster

    GIBBES BAY 7/1 gen
    Trainer in form, jockey in form ,P Nicholls has an exceptional record with this type of horse and it could be a “Anything” horse.
    AMIRAL COLLONGES 12/1 gen
    Another of the “Anything” horses, it`s one of those horses and on a going day could romp home, mind you a lot in this are like that, price i feel is value though.

    15:55 Huntingdon
    INNISFREE LAD 8/1 gen
    Dennis/Hughes combination will come into play here, not harshly treated and was unlucky last time, can gain compensation here.
    MINELLA WHISPER 25/1 gen
    Stamina looks his forte and its interesting he makes his handicap debut with a step back up in trip, to what should play to his strengths.

    After yesterday I`m looking for a turn in fortunes, saw a lone magpie yesterday and I`m blaming that for the luck draining out of me…sassafrazzin betting gods!!

      1. so painful. So so painful! Has jumped so well, looked the winner all the way up the straight, and he has just tied up/idled/out-stayed in the dying yards. Awful. I just thought he would keep going. Alas. Moving on! As annoyed the 1st/2nd were not considered more closely, but a lot of early carnage in that race, fav took out two inc my other one.

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