Free Daily Post: 27/01/18 (complete)

TIPS

3.15 Donc 

Pilgrims Bay – 1 point EW – 16/1 (Betfair Sports/PP) 14/1 (BV/SB) 12/1 (gen) 

NON RUNNER… Damn.. I won’t be replacing him. 

Stats/trends (UK/Irish form) 

10/10 places at least once last 3 starts (0/32,7p had not) 

10/10 had won over 2m7.5f+ in career (0/41,6p had not) 

9/10 had 1-4 career wins (9/57) (1/86,15p had 5+) 

Shortlist: Pilgrims Bay / Mustmeetalady  / Coologue / Minella Online 

Pilgrims Bay.. in part I have been influenced by the stats shortlist here – he does look the most interesting on that to my eye and arguably the only one with the form/class to win this of those listed. Famous last words. But at 16/1 > 12/1 (various place terms, I’d go for 4 if you can, even though 1/5th odds but that won’t matter so much if he romps home!) I thought he looked the most interesting outsider.  I have gone EW because a) he is hard to win with and needs plenty to drop right and b) Henderson’s charge ‘could’ out-class them all. Plenty in here have form, fitness or stamina questions, but not Pilgrims Bay. He ran a decent 5th in the Hennessy where he cruised into the race a couple out- I think the trip then found him out, as well as his ability to find very little. He was never going to win but it was a decent run. There is a chance of a decent pace in this and provided he can jump fluently (he can clout the odd fence) he looks sure to travel into this well enough. There are a few in here who could fall in a hole/go backwards come the business end. If he jumps and completes I’d hope for a top 3 finish at worst. The yard are going better having been very quiet – I think they had some illness issues with dodgy hay and may have also had the winter flu jab lull that affects many yards at this time of year. As such his recent runs could be marked up. He is a former G3 handicap winner (so a touch of class) and arrives here in form. He ran well at Kempton the last day beaten by a progressive chaser who went well for a long way in the Peter Marsh before the ground found him out. He does need cajoling and if he gets out the wrong side of the bed he won’t run his race. He has been consistent enough recently. Fingers crossed he can be smuggled into it. I thought 16s/14s was a bit insulting given his form on paper. With any luck he looks like the winner at some point and I get a run for my money. 

He was the only one that really interested me in this, at the prices. 

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MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Kerry Lee (12/1<)

3.50 Donc – Gino Trail (m1+m2)

Sat TJC

1.15 Chelt – War Sound (14/1<)