(2016: +75 points ; 2017 18/185, +79.5; 2018 2/23,8p, -0.5)
Captain Mowbray – 1 point win – 15/2 (coral/Boyle/BV) 7/1 (gen) 3rd 8/1
Amber Gambler – 1 point win – 9/2 (gen) UP
Ah. Well, the 1-2 no surprise and part of me happy with how I read that, I can live with a winner like that at 5s given my stamina concern..a chance he would relish it but I could make a case for a couple with proven stamina who still had upside potential to my eyes. I also thought the ground would be harder work than that – I have no idea what the clock will say but it didn’t look overly hard work to my eyes.. I thought it would be softer and more of a test, hence more doubts about the winner…still, that doesn’t excuse Amber Gambler who didn’t run very well… Captain Mowbray.. I don’t know what to think of that ride..he is a hold up horse so no shock as to the tactics, 7s+ allowed that chance I thought…but why the jockey has held him up 10l behind the last horse for first half of race I have no idea…were he near the back of the main pack he would have been in there pitching at the end..maybe the early pace/ground/class too him out of his comfort zone..the way he travelled and picked up suggests he could have been ridden a bit closer through that. Jockey didn’t give him a chance.. he has motored in home straight but gave front 2 such a lead that come the last he had run out of steam. I’ll get my money back on him, that or impaled at the bottom of another cliff!
The ‘could be anything’ horse won yesterday but I can live with that at his morning price. He was very inexperienced and the historical stats for a horse with that sort of profile (esp the big jump in class) were poor. It’s when that type wins at 10s/14s>5/1 that it hurts. He was short enough on morning prices given his profile in that sort of race. Of more annoyance was just how poor the two tips ran. Poor. It’s been a stop and start month but we crack on…
Captain Mowbray… I thought he was a shade overpriced here given his form. He is fit and running well. He has come into his own with the CP added and upped to a staying trip. He is unexposed over this trip and may appreciate the more galloping home straight here, as opposed to Catterick LTO. That race has worked out well enough…Attention Please would have gone close to winning NTO but for falling two out and a horse who came second in that race won this week. So , some substance. There should be more to come over this trip and he could still be ahead of his mark. I didn’t think he should have been bigger price than Capard King or Amber Gambler really. We shall see if that price judgement is right.
Amber Gambler… well I thought he could be a point shorter here as he looks solid… he is still lightly enough raced over fences and ran well LTO in far from ideal conditions..the trip was a bit short and they went hard enough…he struggled to keep tabs at times and his jumping got a bit out of sync. He somewhat powered up the hill like a horse really coming into form. Williams’ horses are starting to run well again after a recent ‘flu jab’ lull, like many yards I suspect. Baring an accident he shouldn’t be far away here. He stays well in soft ground and there could be more progress in him this season.
Of the rest.. Capard King is a danger but his price felt about right. Jonjo’s are in one of their hit and miss phases again and this one has had 43 days off. There is a question over soft ground for him also…his soft ground wins were in very small fields and he does have to prove it in a truly run big field handicap. He does drop in class here and is a danger. As is the Rose Dobbin Fav but he seems about the right price, if not a little on the short side. He is ‘the’ ‘could be anything’ horse in this but it is only his second start and this will very different to last time out. His jumping should be put under more pressure and there is a small chance he bounces after his last run. I won’t be shocked if he wins…but I can’t have him at this price and can more than live with it. He has stamina to prove over fences as well…I’d want a bigger price for that sort. I should mention the Longsdon horse as he is unexposed as well. Having looked through his form I am not convinced he looks like a stayer but he is doing something different here – moving up in distance. It could unlock more. It may not. Again, 5s didn’t feel overly generous for one that has to go and prove it. The booking of Hughes caught the eye but my judgement was that he wasn’t over-priced. I’m often wrong on that front though! I couldn’t have any of the other ones and will be quite surprised if one of the top 5 in the market doesn’t take this.
GL with any bets.