Members Daily Post: 26/01/18 (complete)

NOTES x2, Section 1, Test Zone (+AW)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Doncaster

3.05 –

Amber Gambler (all hncps) H3 I3 G3 4/1 S4 UP

Capard King (m1) H3 11/2 UR

4.10 –

Hidden Cargo (all hncps +m1) 14,30 12/1 S2 UP

Kings Temptation (hncp h) G1 25/1 S1 S2

Little Bruce (hncp h) 14 14/1 S2 UP

Big Penny (m1) H3 G3 14/1 S1 S2  UP

Dreams of Theatre (m1) 25/1 S2 UP

 

Huntingdon 

3.15 – Tajbadalandabad (m1) G3 12/1  S1 S2 WON 12/1>9/1 

3.50 –

Larry (hncp hurdle) ES 8/1 S3 3rd 11/2 

Cloth Cap (m2) H1  3/1 UP

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 21st Jan 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (2017: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 2/19,10p, +7)  (1 point win bets)

NOTES

3.50 Hunt – Larry – 7/1 (gen)  3rd 11/2 

4.10 Donc – Hidden Cargo – 12/1 (gen)  UP

 

I will crack the ‘jumps’ magic formula one day and part of that journey may be having a slightly more systematic mindset to some qualifiers when they are in the price range where plenty can be over-looked, and where you over-thinking can kill you… 6/1+ as a benchmark…

Larry… well he is unexposed, makes handicap hurdle debut, drops in class, different track, slightly better ground, 2 or Moore’s last three runners have won, TJC are 3/13,6p in handicap hurdles at the track last 5 years, Moore is 2/5 with his handicap hurdle debutants here in the last 5 years, the horse is fit, 6/1+, bet. Well, that was the thinking! His rest pattern also interested me. He returned the last day after 40 days off, suggesting maybe a slight hold up at home given his two previous runs were with 18 day breaks. He returns 19 days after his last run here. Clearly he needs to step forward but there are reasons for doing so and at that price I will take a dart. Cloth Cap could follow up again if handling slightly more testing ground and he won a weak race the last day. But should go well. Market confidence for the Greater horse is significant given the break and his ‘could be anything’ profile. Sheehan is the most in form jockey riding at the moment I think. There are a few other handicap debutants etc and I may not have mentioned the winner. Happy to have a stab. With the non runner he actually becomes 3rd rated in Geeegeez and 3rd rated HorseRaceBase.

Hidden Cargo… he is 12/1 here, the yard continue in decent form, the jockey knows the horse, it’s his 3rd run in a handicap, he’s up 5f and down in class. Another with a mildly interesting rest pattern given he ran after 196 days and PU on first run of the season. No doubt an issue as he ran 63 days later LTO and returns after 43 days here. I didn’t want to over think this sort of profile as not doing so should help me land on a few more nice priced winners. If he wins he is just the sort where I would go ‘why the hell didn’t I tip him’. Out of the qualifiers above he does have the most unexposed profile in race conditions. There is now a non runner which makes the race less daunting from a systematic perspective. I will fall of my seat if Dreams of Theatre wins but maybe stranger things have happened! BigPenny… I have backed here with the S1 systematic brain… gets a strong pace again here, CP are on and soft ground… no idea if the latter will help..she seems a bit if a monkey and has failed to go through with the effort the last twice when every chance. But if you are an S1 follower or even S2, certainly no reason not to have a go. I didn’t want to upgrade my system stake though. She does have a big weight here and back against the boys. Little Bruce is no forlorn hope but more exposed in handicaps. He is unexposed over this distance though, with a question make against stamina. I won’t fall off my seat if he runs an ok race. Yard are in form. This is a horror of a race really… the fav looks good but there are plenty of unexposed sorts in this. The Lavelle horse would be a danger also and I can see why Nick likes him below. I don’t need to build on those reasons. A race where you ‘could’ (I may have) throw around plenty of confetti and not land on the winner, but then again, I do like a good wedding.

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I am about to have a look at the 3.05 for ‘tipping’ purposes in the free blog. I have had something on Amber Gambler at 9/2 for S4 purposes. He was an eye-catcher LTO also…a slight niggle that they can hold him up which I never like in general over fences, but certainly not with a horse under 6s really. He is lightly raced for his age, Ian’s horses could now be coming back to themselves after their jabs, and he will appreciate the step back up in trip. Some of the jockey stats niggled at me and dampened all out enthusiasm, as well as his hold up style – all in the context of price. He should go well.

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Jonjo Handicap Debut

12.50 Donc – Spiritual Man (10/1< best, 16/1<) 6/1 UP 16/1

R Hobson

1.25 Donc – Going Gold (33/1<) 9/1 UP

 

TTP All-Weather 

Lingfield – NONE

Kempton

8.45 – Curious Fox (all hncps) I3

Dundalk

5.30 – Asian Wing (m1)

6.00- Space Meadow (m1)

6.30 – Red Avenger (4yo+) 14 

8.00-

Baile An Roba (4yo+)

Wild Shot (4yo) H3

8.30 – Blues Breaker (4yo+) 14 H3 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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The Chasing Game... there’s a new post and feature length video looking at my approach to 3m+ handicap chases and a few things I can improve on. You can check that out HERE>>>

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Handicap Chase ‘System’ 

I haven’t got round to typing up my notes yet but in the meantime the main thrust of my research was…

  • Handicap Chase (not novice) 
  • WON LTO
  • Aged 4-9 
  • Class 3/4/5
  • Ran 1-20 days ago
  • 0-2 wins in handicap chases (inc Novice)
  • 2013-

865 bets / 254 wins / 430 places / 29.36% SR / 50% w|p SR / +15 SP / +68 BFSP / AE 1.01

Notes:-

  • 11/1 or bigger: 0/20,3p
  • Drop in Class from last run: 16/81,34p, -30
  • 3m-3m4f: 82/268,137p, +50, +70 BFSP, AE 1.17

 

As a ‘starting point’ for finding bets/helping with chase analysis, I thought that looked quite promising. Anyway, use/ignore that how you please. All being well I will post ‘qualifiers’ in the test zone..NOT to be backed systematically I don’t think. There are no qualifiers on Thursday. 

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

32 Responses

  1. oops, too many bumps on the train.

    D 3.05 – Capard King (micro class)

    H 3.15 – Taj Badalandabad (micro TJC)

    Mike

      1. Had a cracking w/end in Bristol a few years ago on a rugby tour. Played Southmead on a pitch next to a school that looked like a bomb had hit. Had to have a few ciders of dutch courage before venturing on the pitch but once we got playing it was a good game. Still in touch with a couple of lads there and was invited to a christening last year. We played in pink shirts with black stars ffs. Theme for the w/end was ‘Blues Brothers’ and all the doormen in the city were sound. There was 51 of us and not a problem. I forget how/why but a few of of us (after a most informative chat with some locals) ended up at a very swank brothel at the end of the clifton bridge. ahem.

          1. haha, both those comments made me smile.
            I’m currently in Yatton, small village on outskirts..well, a few miles out on my mates farm. Already rounded up a few sheep, moved them from one field to another, and absorbed the country air!
            Will be out and about in Bristol on Saturday evening I think, it is a nice City. Hopefully I’ll still have some money left post Cheltenham for the festivities!
            Josh

          2. Josh,

            Try the Cauldron Restaurant if you can get in. My sister’s stepson is the owner/chef. Highly recommended by my wife (I’ve not been yet).

  2. Not had much of a bet for a while so very much looking forward to heading across to Doncaster tomorrow.

    As ever guys any thoughts would be much appreciated.

    Going to trust my paddock eyes a bit more this time as I picked out a 16s winner last time which of course I didn’t back as already had an ew fancy in the race. Doh!

    Cheers

    1. Have fun Luke, I’m sure there may be the odd comment re any horses of interest At Donny, I’ll have a flick through also… and try and get my head around the best plays in that 4.10!! I think Amber Gambler may be a play at 4s+, esp as S4 and he ran a good race LTO.. a couple of bad errors didn’t help but ran as if he was coming back to himself the last day. Haven’t looked in too much depth at race mind but fingers crossed he may give us a run for our money. Something else may stand out.
      Yep always trust your paddock eye, if only for £2-£2.50 bets if a price..those winners are very satisfying…some horses just leap out and it’s always fun trying to hone the paddock eye! Mine is still fairly dodgy and not an exact science but great fun nonetheless.
      Ah, nothing wrong with not betting too often…if you can control that and don’t feel like you ‘have to’ bet then you are halfway there…frees up time to absorb, ponder, and get used to ‘missing winners’ and controlling emotions- which is most of the battle in this game! And with any luck means you may enjoy your trip to the races more.
      Josh

    2. Hi Luke, enjoy your day wish I was racing instead of working, I’m not suggesting a bet but one to look at in the paddock, 3.05 Steel Summit, 2/3 on soft, 3/1/7 in Jan is 7lbs below his last chase win, the big negative is PU the last twice since a long lay off, can excuse as both on heavy, the question is has he lost his love for racing,dropped 8lb since his last run and a 7lb claimer on, trainer form ok.
      Good luck with whatever you back.

      Greg

    3. I like Thomas Blossom in the 12.50. Could be improving enough to best these? In the 4.10 the Nick Williams and Lizzie Kelly bandwagon rolls up with One Of Us. Good luck.

    4. At Doncaster , strangely enough the 1.55 caught my eye with only 4 runners and a fav currently 4/7 (B365) that i think should be taken on here … Wotzizname opened last night @ 3/1 and this is a solid 140 rated performer .
      Mount Mews won from the front over 19f last time getting 12lb from a horse rated below WOTZIZNAME …… stepping up to a longer trip for the 1st time and off level weights , doesnt make this a “shoe in” , so my pennies will go with wotzizname .

      Have a good day Luke

  3. D 4.10 Volt Face @ 33’s 4 places or 25’s 5 places
    Runs anywhere betwixt 2 & 3mile with moderate success. Not any younger so why not chuck it in a race 1/2 mile longer than has run for a year and add a claimer.
    Mike

  4. Not a great day. Just the one winner at 4s. I’ll do the calcs later but suspect we’ll be back in the red for the week.

    Back to Lingfield and Kempton tomorrow. Qualifiers as follows:
    Lingfield
    1.15 Ladofash 9/1 (10.50)
    2.20 Chelwood Gate 8/1 (8.20) & Baby Gal 4/1 (5.70)
    2.55 Runaiocht 7/1 (7.40)
    3.30 Krazy Paving 16/1 (17.00)
    4.00 Bertie Moon 7/1 (8.20)

    Kempton
    5.45 Deer Song (8.60)
    7.15 Sotomayor 9/1 (8.00)
    1pt Win each.

    Good Luck

    1. Hi Ken, Not backing but following and I think you’ll find 2 x winners today at CAW. sp 7/2 both. You’re doing well either way.
      Mike

      1. Thanks folks for the clarification. The reason I didn’t note the second winner is because I forgot to place the bet myself. Doh!! Must’ve checked the prices but forgot to hit the bet button. What a dope! I’ll record both wins for the stats.

        My head is all over the place this week. I have a meeting with a Financial Advisor tomorrow about possible retirement. I think I’m looking into the future and all the time I might have to play around with my stats. Fingers crossed.

        Anyway after all that I ended all square on the day to adv prices.

        Hopefully after tomorow, I’ll have my head screwed back on.

        1. Keep going Ken. Tips for retirement – Dont invest in Bitcoin; Retire when the weather is warming up (May is good); Get a decent set of golf clubs; Tell the wife to keep working as it good for her to engage with others on a daily basis. Good luck.

    2. Sometimes all you need is one big winner to put tat smile back on your face. Today I’ve had a 16/1 (my own tip), 14/1ew & 7/1 winners. And I’ll be retiring in March!! Does life get any better 🙂 🙂

  5. Allez Jacques Doncaster Friday 16:10 0.75pt e/w-Going back to the Emma Lavelle well at Donny where she has a wonderful record (11/36, 14p in handicaps) including 2 of her last 3 handicap hurdles in the past 2 years. The horse ran a cracker 2 starts ago finishing 2nd in a race which has thrown up countless winners with the 4th, 5th, 7th, 9th and 10th following up. NTO was made fav in a falsely ran race on handicap debut. The step up in trip looks to suit. Trainer is still in great form with 5 winners and 8 places from her 19 runners
    Taquin Du Seuil Huntingdon Friday 15:15 1pt e/w-I agree his last run was a bad one but he has been running pretty well at the highest level in his previous 3 runs and this is his first race worth less than £15k since 2013. Jonjo has a great record at the track and Coleman is 2/5, 3p when riding for him over handicap hurdles at the track. Barring the fav a lot of these look exposed or in the handicappers grip and considering he has only once failed to place below class 1 level (and that was in the Silver Trophy which is traditionally one of the harder handicaps to win in the autumn before winning the BetVictor GC) I thought 10/1 looked too big.

  6. From the 8 runners that have had a wind op only two I feel are worth an investment

    14.55 Lingfield FEEL THE VIBES (1/2 pt each way 10/1 with most major firms)
    Clearly did not stay the 1m4f trip last time and is dropped back to 1m today a distance over which he showed some promise 3 runs ago at Kempton satying on over 1f out to finish 4th. He has tumbled down the weights and if the op brings about a slight improvement he should be able to get involved in this race.

    15.15 Huntingdon OUR KAEMPHER (1/2 pt each way 10/1 Ladbrokes/Corals)
    Has not shown too much in last 4 runs albeit those runs where in better company but the horse does have a good record on RH tracks (41117) and does go well on flat tracks (3 wins from 9 starts). If he can show the form of his 3l beating in Pertemps Network Final at Cheltenham in 2016 he will have every chance today.

  7. Those of you off to Cheltenham on Saturday, enjoy. I have been many times and it is super duper. I would have gone but the gang want to go to see the Lions beat Rochdale in the cup! I would lay Bristol De Mai now as it will drift. I am on L’Ami Serge at 6/1 but am keen to lay on the day. Bit of a monkey.

    1. Hi martin
      enjoy the game do not now if Shackell is cup tied or not but you are welcome to him happy to pick up his £30000 a week injured all the time now that he is playing for a future contract no doubt he will be fit and give is all,please keep him.

      1. We are going well this season based upon the funds we have and so he will have to work to get in the league side. We were trying to get Tim Cahill back re his prep for the world cup but he wanted too much money!

        Away to Man City next round!

  8. Gradually getting to absorb the masses of the informed messages coming at me 🙂
    Currently getting very excited with my 10 squids e/w on mr finnau ( top 10 finish) currently sat on top of the farmers leader board :)!
    can i ask my first “nugget” question ….. the selections with “m1/2/3/” etc …. i cant see that on the key .. but is that a micro system selection ??

    and just a little chestnut for you the horse mentioned in Paul Jacobs flyers going around to entice us into joining him is ” allez jacques” in the 4.10 donc ( maximum e/w bet , he left enough clues in his blurb to work it out 🙂

    good luck and thanks for all your informal informative information so far 🙂

    lgb 🙂

    1. Hi Brian?… sorry, ‘I’m a stickler for first name terms!

      The codes in brackets… so, in section 1 they simply refer to the section of the trainer track profile that the stat derived from. This is only useful if you ever wish to cross reference the horse posted in section 1 with my stats research… you may with to make an assessment as to strength of the stat /include in any deliberations. In order for it to be of use you need to cross reference it with the TTP stats reports which can be found in the research link in the Key. The M1 and M2 refer to the two sets of micro stats for each track. Makes sense if you read through those reports…likewise a ‘hncp c’ would refer to the horse hitting the ‘handicap chase’ stats from said track profile from the report etc.

      The m1/2/e etc used in the Test Zone again refer to the research for said angles and whether they came from micro 1 2 or 3 etc, depending on how many there were for said research. I think there were 3 angles for Paddy Brennan, 3/4 for McCain… I think the rest off top of my head are just single micros

      Hope that makes sense, I may have complicated things no doubt, as is my want! In essence if there is one thing not to concern yourself with on this page, it may well be what’s in those brackets!
      Josh

      1. The best approach is to take some time to absorb and take a ‘less is more’ approach, having a handful of areas you may wish to focus on. You can’t absorb everything or follow everything but a case of taking time to work out what you enjoy etc.

  9. thanks josh ………. and thanks for your patience and explanation for a newbie 🙂 read and read again .. and absorb ………… got it get it ……..good !!!
    bc

    1. Mr Lord George seems to have lived an interesting life! Learning something new every day.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lord_George_Bentinck

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      Oh well it is my job to methodically explain. if you wish to get to grips with the content approach/take your time, you will ‘get it’ at some point. I have to realise I live it so it’s clear in my head but quite apparent that it can take some getting used to, hence why I’ve made the trial periods what they are. I can do the ‘just back X’ as I have in welcome email notes etc but to really enjoy it the more you are able to put in, the more you probably get out. While realising you won’t cover everything and you will miss winners/won’t back all winners. You just have to get to a point (which can take weeks/couple months+) where you are happy with your own progress/betting bank progress
      All questions welcome in these parts,
      Josh

  10. a spare half hour so a quick look at tomorrows Don 3-15. (info stolen from betbright statzone) 🙂
    3.15 – Sky Bet Chase (A Handicap) (formerly The Great Yorkshire Chase) (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (5yo+ 0-155) CH4 3m ITV4
    12/12 – Had won between 0-3 times over fences before
    11/12 – Carried 11-2 or less
    11/12 – Aged 9 or younger
    9/12 – Officially rated 130 or higher
    9/12 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
    9/12 – Carried 10-12 or less
    8/12 – Unplaced favourites
    7/12 – Finished unplaced last time out
    7/12 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
    7/12 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
    7/12 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
    6/12 – Irish bred
    4/12 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
    3/12 – Won last time out
    2/12 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
    2/12 – Trained by the Pipe stable
    2/12 – Ridden by Andrew Thornton
    2/12 – Winning favourites
    2/12 – Trained by Alan King
    The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9.5/1
    Note: The 2007 running was staged at Southwell
    Other Stats:
    4 of the last 11 winners of this race went onto contest the William Hill Trophy (now JLT Chase) at the Cheltenham Festival that season (1 winner)
    4 of the last 11 winners went onto run in that season’s Grand National (no winners, all unplaced)

    The two I like here are VIBRATO VALTAT (e/w) and WARRIORS TALE (e/w). The first-named represents the winning owners from the last two runnings of this race and will be keen to make it three! A recent close second here at Doncaster was a solid run from this 9 year-old and having once been rated in the 160’s then off a mark of 149 he still looks well-handicapped. Now with the Emma Lavelle yard and he’d have had this race as a target since that last run in the middle of December, plus is up just 4lbs. He’ll have the experienced Leighton Aspell on his back. Warriors Tale is another 9 year-old and comes from the powerful Paul Nicholls yard, that have a decent record in this race. With 11-2 to carry, and plenty of key trends on his side, then he looks decent value to me. He’s up just 4lbs for a close second to Gold Present at Newbury last time out and won’t mind the softer ground. Sean Bowen takes over from Bryony Frost, but he’s ridden the horse seven times before (2 wins) so knows him well. The Nicholls camp would have had a few horses aimed at this so the fact this is their only runner catches the eye.

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