Free Daily Post: 07/01/18 (complete)

12/1 TIP + micro

TIPS

(2016: +75 points ; 2017 18/185, +79.5; 2018 1/4, +13)

2.35 Plump

Coolking – 1 point win – 12/1 (gen) UP 12/1

 

This one is well worth playing at a double figure price here. This could be a right old slog and on a going day he could take this. Firstly he is the only distance winner in the field, so we know he stays. Everything else has stamina to prove. And not only that, stamina in heavy. Coolking ticks those two boxes. It looks like he needs heavy to run his race. In handicaps… 3/9,7p on heavy, 6/19,10p in Jan-March (this is when he comes alive) and he is 6/15,5p LH (awful the other way). So, he ticks all those boxes. He has pulled up plenty in his career and I am not too concerned about that especially given that there are valid excuses for his two runs this season. Firstly he probably needed them both and it isn’t impossible that this has been the target. Secondly they have been on decent ground. He has probably gone too hard up front in both and without doubt will have found the pace to hot in the latter stages. 3m on GS is not his thing, it never has been over fences on what we can see. Josh takes the ride and he has ridden him before. I wondered if Jamie would have had the choice but he hasn’t ridden him before and at the prices I won’t get hung up on such things. Coolking usually races prominently and I hope they are aggressive on him. If he can get the lead and get into a rhythm he will just keep going here. He has no weight on his back either. Clearly I won’t be shocked if he is a PU. He could down tools and maybe he will find this too hot. But many jocks in here won’t be sure if their mounts will stay in this ground and may be very patient with them. I’d like to think he could do his own thing up front. Worth a dart at that price. Perfect conditions for him. It has been a weekend for the old boys and this one could join the party.

Of the rest… well Vinnie Lewis could hack up and he is in the ‘could be anything’ category. He may relish conditions. He may still have stacks in hand. He may not. He could flounder. I can leave him at that price, no problem. Shanroe Santos is a frustrating horse but he has a chance. This could be ideal for him and that run at Carlisle suggested heavy is no problem. He arrives in some form but he can clout a fence, and the trip is an unknown. That makes anything under 6s/7s short enough to my eyes. Henri Pari- I am never destined to get him right. He has so much weight here and has to prove himself in the ground. He may find these fences easier but he can clout one. He has a touch of class and if he takes this then well done to him. I can’t back him at a single figure price now, too scarred! Leo Luna – stamina to prove but he may be fine. I hope Jamie pulls him back and doesn’t fight his brother/stablemate. Surely he won’t. It would ruin both their chances. There is a chance he ‘bounces’ here, second run after a long long time off. And he had a hard enough race the last day. But no forlorn hope.

I can’t really have the others. I tipped Clondaw Cian LTO at a big price and he was awful. It would be typical for him to rock up here but stamina/ground an unknown. He may improve for it having been taken off his feet LTO in a much much deeper race. Maybe i’ll have a saver on him! (mug)

That’s the lot for today. I tipped the winner of this last year on here, Morney Wing at 12s, hoping for a repeat!

Josh

 

 

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Trainer/Jockey combo – Live Test

2.35 Plump – Leo Luna (14/1< shorter SP)

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

8 Responses

  1. My own take
    225 Plumpton Sussex national
    Trends
    9 Irish/2French/2 GB 1/2 US
    Bear rails only US bred.

    15/15 Male ..Frank N fair only female

    15/15 7-10 year old .. negative for Shotgun/Coolking … optimum 8-9 years positive for Clondaw/Shanroe/Leo/Bear/Bindon.

    15/15 No favourite

    15/15 rated 100-127 neg for Shotgun/Clondaw/Henri…. opt 113-120 9/15 poss for Frank/Bindon/Coolking/Big/Bear.

    14/15 all racing from higher marks than previously won from neg for Leo.

    15/15 weight 9-13 to 11-11 neg for Henri/ Clondaw… opt 10-9 to 11-1 9/15 poss for Big/Bear/Leo

    15/15 had at least finished in top 4 in last 3 races. Neg for Shotgun / Coolking

    14/15 won at least 3m+

    15/15 least 3 chase runs neg Big meadow

    12/15 LTO ran btwn 3m – 3m2f neg Bindon

    11/15 LTO finished top 5.. 2 fell neg Coolking

    Putting all these together gives me Bear rails EW whos trainer is slightly out of form and the progressive Vinnie Lewis who’s only neg appears to be the fav trend .

  2. Well done with Buywise yesterday Josh, I was on each way at 16/1. I am also on Coolking today.

    I was speaking with Ian at SP2A earlier via email. He is improving and feeling better.

    1. Yep, nice when they do as you hoped, his big day at last! Yep we speak daily, he is doing better I think,but has to take his time to make sure spot on. Horrid experience by all accounts.

      Coolking will go one of two ways, I am more leaning towards PU, the legs may just be too old, but his price made the play, given liking for conditions/proven stamina/time of year/prominent running style etc. I found it hard to make a case for anything else at the odds, suspect fav or Shanroe may take this, but can let them beat me.
      GL

  3. Although no winners Alfie Spinner at 33s pulled my other bets back..leaving a small profit.
    Based on the same criteria while the ground is like glue.

    2.35 P.
    Shotgun Paddy 3 places on going 1 place class
    Leo Luna…2 wins…going…..class 1w 2p’s
    Coolking…2w 4p….0w 3ps.

    No real ew bets here but this race does seem to be an age dominated one.

    Tony Mc

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