Members Daily Post: 28/12/17 (complete)

Section 1 + test zone (complete) , results summary, Leopardstown horse…

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

 

Catterick

1.05 – Paddling (hncp chase) H1 I3 11/4  WON 11/4> 4/1 

2.40 –

Red Danaher (all hncps + hncp chase + m2) ES+ 13/2 S3A

Golden Investment (hncp chase + m1 + m1) 14,30 ESH1 I1 G1 4/1 S3 S4 

 

Leicester Abandoned

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 17th Dec)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (01/09/17-) (31/175, +111.75) (1 point win bets)

None today.

A decent enough day yesterday. The ‘tip’ didn’t run much of a race but I can live with those. Hopefully you read the write up and if you are not a systematic S2 or S5 follower, you had something on the winner. If you follow my ‘notes’ and I ‘tip’ a horse in a race with multiple qualifiers in section 1, it probably pays to have something on any other bigger priced ones!

Maybe S2 is slowly finding some form after a torrid run. They shipped another 22 points last week (Mon-Sun) but in the last two days have won +25 points. Hopefully they can build on that, still +276 points for 2017, but the last couple of months haven’t been much fun. I do need to touch on Each Way betting if you are an S2 follower…(I’ll get something up below asap) from the evidence that Mike shared with me a couple of weeks back, essentially backing EW when priced 16/1-25/1 on morning prices is worth it. It doesn’t appear there is much difference in terms of profit (against backing win only) but of course you get a return more often from the placed horses, which helps mentally if nothing else, and that is important. If you have been backing them EW anyway, then do post a comment with any thoughts etc. Maybe from 1st Jan I should start tracking the placed horses/stats on a few more angles!

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3.Micro System Test Zone

TTP All-Weather

Lingfield

1.15 – Liberty Lynx (2YO) 14,30  8/1

(Haggas 6/23,9p with 2YO first time at Ling in last 5 years, prob includes turf runners also…did have a 20s qualifier go close at last meeting from memory) 

 

Irish Angles

3.35 Leop – Wishmoor (12/1 < best, 1x 66/1 winner)

 

D McCain (14/1< guide)

2.05 Catt – Middlebrow (m1/m2)

2.40 Cat – Golden Investment (m1/m2/m3)

 

R Hobson (33/1< guide)

2.05 Catt – Ramonex

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Results Update: Summary below, link in Key to be updated ASAP

Weekly Results Update:Advised Strategies

Summary

Weekly TOTAL (advised strategies) (all Jumps now): 

  • Backing all strategy quals every time they hit a strategy: 2/48,10p, -39.5 
  • Backing all strategy quals just once, regardless of how many strategies they hit: 2/30, -20.5 
  • S1 (0/2,0p, -2) S2 (0/22,7p, -22) S3 (0/10,0p, -10) S3A (1/5,1p, +1) S4 (1/5,1p, -2.5) S5 (0/4,1p,-4)

NOTES – 1/8, -2.4

Thoughts… well last week was rather poor again… the one angle that is really concerning and is neatly perched on the naughty step is S3 (Elite Squad) – that had a very good start but has had a horribly run. Really poor. And because it isn’t based on any ratings pointers, or like S2 has a really big sample size, it’s hard to be as confident moving forwards. Maybe it will turn around, or, it could be that approach isn’t valid. Gulp.  S3A is doing ok and focussing on angles with a more solid stats base. 

Not to sound like a broken record but as I have said before, if you want a narrow focus for a systematic approach then I think S4 is a must. What with how that performed over the flat, and the fact it’s based on three different ratings sets, it should just keep ticking long, over time. As should S1, and hopefully S5. As always a case of having an adequate bank (at least 150-200 points) and starting small, £2-£2.50s, with any systematic approach you take. With any luck many of you get enjoyment from trying to use section 1/test zone as a starting point (the magic formula as one idea) and using your own subjective judgement to pick which ones to back etc. You’ll nail that approach in time, if you like the idea of ‘becoming your own expert’. 

In the last two day’s ‘backing all strategy qualifiers just once’ has won +24 points and shows how quickly things can change when you play big odds. Hopefully a few more nice priced winners are on their way across the strategies. 

On we go. 

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12.50 Leopardtown

I did just have a brief look at the stats/trends here and I couldn’t really find much (albeit haven’t dived in as such) I did note that C Roche is 3/10,6p all runners in this, and runs  Waaheb at 66/1 – 10 year old, formerly smart, 1st time blinkers. I mean if you’re bored and want an interest EW bet (£2.50EW!) he may give you/us some fun. Or he may not 🙂

 

 

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

25 Responses

  1. In the 3.05 Knockaderry Flyer may be a bit of value at 8/1.Winning a cheltenham hunter chase is not bad form and probably market doesn’t know what that form amounts too,has won a chase which none of the others have yet done,he might be not up to it or he might run them into the ground.I think we know how Paddy will play this

    1. Whats your current take on Paddy, Gearoid180468 . In December he has had 37 rides and rode 3 winners (2 for O’Brien and one for P Henderson). It looks like the Rooneys have said no thanks and for some reason he doesnt get many good outside rides (the odd one for Tizzard).
      On an interview after he had rode a winner at Towcester i think, the interviewer asked him how things were.He replied, Fergal tries to get me on as many of his horses as possible and works hard getting the owners to put me up. For a jockey who i believe is in the top ten in England and Ireland i couldnt believe what i was hearing. I have asked this question before but still await an answer. His career is littered with jobs at big yards but after a few seasons its on your bike Paddy. Expect his job at O’Briens to go the same way.

      1. Good Morning Roddo,i answered that question but maybe you didn’t see it.If you go back to your original question you will find my reply

          1. Had a quick search in the comments from Gerry, and this may be the reply, or it may not..

            “Good evening Roddo,
            Can’t say with any certainty why Brennan split with Hobbs,Nicholls and NTD,but as regards Tom George I don’t think they ever really had a formal arrangement,and is still usually first choice when George has double entries or horses at 2 courses.I think things came to a head because Brennan had strong ties with FOB and Tizzard and couldn’t guarantee him that commitment to first refusal,Heskin probably has a retainer now with George.Brennan at 36 probably has 3 or 4 years left at the top of his game and its no coincidence that the upturn in Fergal O Briens yard has come with the arrival of Paddy,together with the better standard of horses,he is an integral part of the team.I wouldn’t be surprised to see him as assistant trainer there at some stage”

          2. Thanks Josh and Gearoid180468 for finding the answer.
            Well you certainly read the current situation different to me. I agree that Paddy should be an integral part of the O’Brien stable but feel the influence of the Rooneys will force Fergals hand. I think Paddy is on borrowed time and i am sure if you had seen the interview after he had ridden that winner at Towcester you might feel the same.
            What makes racing such a great sport is the difference of opinions. I hope this time i have got it wrong. Just feel though that Paddy will be one of those sportsmen with masses of talent but never fulfill the undoubted potential.

          3. We shall see in the course of tine what the outcome will be Roddo,but I think Fergall and Sally Randal wouldn’t be dictated to by an owner with a few horses.My own take on the rooneys is they are fairly volatile,probably the horses with Fergal aren’t quite as good as they think,so the jockey is changed,pretty much the same results.They look at how Fergal has had great success with middling horses like Chase The Spud,Colins Sister and old timer Perfest Candidate and why can’t he do the same with theirs.Master Dee is fairly decent,Luccombe Down and Lovely Job just average and Pemba is pretty uselsss.You never know,Paddy might have said as much.Can’t recall any new arrivals from them recently and Fergal is much more into buying in and syndicating.That allows him to have a degree of control over the quality.Maybe the Rooneys don’t bring cakes

  2. 3 shortish priced winners today but even after taking Rule 4’s (65p & 30p) and one NR into account we came out with just over 7pts profit to advised odds. AW racing at Lingfield tomorrow. Qualifiers as follows:
    11.40 Michigan 6/1
    12.45 Haraz 9/1
    3.30 Zipedeedoodah 8/1 & Very Honest 9/2
    All 1pt win.

    Good Luck

          1. Really? .. i got this from their website ..When a horse is declared a non-runner, Matchbook will apply an adjustment or deduction factor to the odds on all horses in the field. The deduction factor is calculated based on the non-runners odds at time of withdrawal.

          2. No, checked my results and no deduction was made. If you say that it says that on the website then it says it. I cannot explain why? We are talking the 3.25 aren’t we?

  3. sod’s law looks like i have the afternoon to myself and can settle down with ATR on the telly Catterick’s on RUK and i know bugger all about Irish racing so if anyone has any Irish tips just for a fun bet please post.

  4. Josh
    Just to say a big thank you for all your hard work over the past 12 months that you have put into this site and i for one hope the success continues next year.
    Belated Merry Christmas and a Happy and New Year to you and all subscribers.
    Cheers
    Colin

    1. Thanks Colin, a rocky end to the year but the overall picture looks just fine. Always things to improve on but I’ll keep chipping away. Hope you’ve had an enjoyable festive period also. As always, your ongoing support is appreciated,
      Josh

  5. intresting runner today 12.10 lingfield muhajjal trained at newmarket by george peckham lightly raced showed real promise three runs ago at kempton with first time tonque tie hampered at the start next time out and last time out drawn wide in ten. Well drawn in five today with apprentice rossa ryan aboard it could be well placed for its first win

    1. GL Paul, looks like the money is coming. He does look interesting, drops to C6 here which is intriguing and his mark has fallen 13lb in only 4 runs or so! Mad. Like you say possible excuses for odd recent run. I wouldn’t discount them chasing tactics either- they did lead with him in maidens- I wonder if they have been trying to teach him to settle in his races/finish them off. Not impossible they blast out and try and make all. We shall see.

  6. Amuse Me 1pt e/w-I think Moffatt has found a nice race for this one. Would have needed the run two starts ago and wasn’t utterly disgraced in a class 2 LTO (even if it was a poor one). Drops down into a class 5 for the first time in 2 years. Is 4/7, 5p in class 5 handicaps including two wins and a 2nd in chases. Prefers undulating tracks and is back to his last winning mark. Ground and break ideal too. Should go well.

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