Members Daily Post: 27/12/17 (complete)

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Wetherby 

2.05 – Duke of Navan (all hncps) 14, 30 G3 5/2 2nd 9/2

3.15 –

Final Fling (all hncps) 30 H3 I3 12/1 S2 S5 WON 12/1> 10/ 1

Pineapple Crush (m1) 12/1 S2 UP

ChepstowAbandoned 

Kempton

3.05 – Brandon Hill (m1) G1 3/1 UP

3.40 –

Kayf Grace (m1 + m2) 14, 30  11/2 WON 11/2>11/4 (R4) 

Demon D’Aunou (m2) H1 G1 5/1 S1 (IF 11.00+ BFSP) 

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Similar reasons to yesterday’s missed winner from the same yard – this is the mares first run for the yard and the hope is she may improve for the switch. She is also unexposed in handicap hurdles (this her third run) and is doing something different- well other than the trainer switch she is moving up in trip to 3 miles. She is related to s decent staying chaser and it could be the making of her. She also now runs at a much more galloping/conventional track having been racing at Cartmel. It doesn’t look like she took to chasing the last twice and hopefully the return to hurdles sparks her up. This is one of the trainer’s target tracks I think and hopefully he has her spot on here. The ground is an unknown built into the price for me. We are taking fitness on trust, but his record of 60+ day horses over this distance in handicaps is decent enough, and in hurdles. While I can live with missing his 16/1 winner yesterday it will still irk me, and I was too dismissive of the fitness factor also. The jockey situation is interesting- Downson has a decent enough record on Kirby’s so no concerns on that front (could be owner related)- but Adam Nichol has ridden the horse before for his old trainer and rides plenty of Kirby. I’m not sure if he has first refusal on Rose Dobbin’s horses or what the relationship is – but that does make Final Fling of interest – and given he is a qualifier on a couple of strategies I’ve had something on him also. He is a bit less exposed but returns to hurdles here and if running up to his more recent Hexham form, he would be in the mix. Flemerina stood out on geegeez Instant Expert tab also, and may appreciate the return to soft. He was the only one to stand out which suggests this could be an open enough/mediocre race that is there for the taking. There are no unexposed hotspots from big yards in it, 5/1 the field.

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Elsewhere… well the two in the 3.40 have solid chances, but are both under 6/1 in a competitive enough race on paper, and I know if I tip one of them the other will bolt up. They are both unexposed making handicap hurdle debut. No trip moves though but I’m intrigued to see how Jonjo’s goes. I’d need to check the stats but he doesn’t have many novice/maiden hurdle winners, suggesting those that do win them/place (rather than saved for handicaps!) could be quite smart. Kayf Grace really needs to settle better but if she does she may bolt up too. Very smart bumper form. Jonjo’s is at least ‘double top rated’ – I’ll dig out those stats again from an update a few weeks back but they do well enough, and even more so when it is a H1 + a speed rating (G1/I1).

Brandon Hill- well you know me and my price dilemmas. 3s seems ok- were he treble rated (s4) I would back him at that price. He looks sure to get an easy lead here and Tom George seems to be finding some more consistent form having been very quiet. If he needed his last run- he ran as such – he could bolt up here and make 3s look a massive price. George has won this race a couple of times recently and this could well have been the plan – well, I suspect it has been. If you have a decent jumper who can make all, you’d look to find them a race at Kempton.

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That’s the lot for today.

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Re cap-

Ah well I would have taken the results on Boxing Day before the first race. 1/4, +3.75 was solid enough on the ‘tips’ and sadly I couldn’t add to the early win. Well done to Norman for picking that one out at 16s a couple of days ago.

S4 had a decent enough day of it and they just seem to tick along – they are very good at finding value at the top end of the market also 2/1< . In recent days there have been 6/4>11/10 and 15/8>5/4 winners. If S4 can continue to tick along at 30-40% win SR (or even 25%, I see no reason logically why it shouldn’t continue) hopefully it can pull in 60-100 points a year, across both codes. At £5 per point that pays for subs, leaves you with a bit left over, and with any luck ensures you have a solid foundation with which to attack/ponder/deliberate/test/absorb all the other content/comments etc. Despite the odd wobble, which is to be expected, my ‘Notes’ total isn’t too bad either – although that will dip, that ROI isn’t sustainable but I will try.

The Magic Formula – well yet more evidence that it works. There was one winner that got away from Section 1 – Jonjo’s handicap debutant, Cloth Cap, at Huntingdon. That was an error at 11s, but is said with hindsight. He was lightly raced and making handicap hurdle debut. Jonjo is only 5/85 with such types in the last 2 years, but 2/8 at Huntingdon in the last 5 and on that basis alone was probably worth a poke. He moved up in class from his C5 maiden hurdle and there was no distance move. Nor a ratings pointer to spur me into action. Had there been ether of the latter two I’d have had a go. I didn’t have a penny on. If you picked him out then well done, S2 backers would have got stuck in hopefully. He ran at a more galloping track here and knowing Jonjo’s yard there was every chance he was out of form when the horse last ran! Or they trained him hard for this handicap debut which is more likely. I think the track and racing in a more moderate race helped. He was there to tip, I didn’t. I wondered why McLernon came here and I backed the wrong one. He’d have another winner for Honeyball also! Brilliant and rather typical! Still, that happens. More positives than negatives moving forwards. There is gold in these unexposed horses that qualify against some of my trainer angles….

Kimberlite Candy would be another one…I hope some of you follow the Tracey angle as he is in flying form at the moment and this added to his recent haul – he was making handicap chase debut here- they moved him up massively in trip and changed tactics, making all. The buggers. He had shown nothing on his last three stars, showing no interest at all – running poorly long before a lack of class or a shorter trip were a problem. That put me off. Given Lacey’s form and his record with handicap debutants + moving horses in trip, I probably should have had a dart. I am more cautious with wading into unexposed chasers, hurdlers have been more fruitful. Plenty to improve on, as always. These unexposed Lacey horses don’t go long before winning. This one received a brilliant ride and he seemed to respond to more aggressive tactics.

I can live with missing Kirby’s 16/1 winner, having tipped his other one in the race. He improved a horse from the Skeltons! That has been noted. I think the fact he was trained there, the 60+ day break (trainer not prolific with those but can clearly ready them) his poor form when last seen, lack of form on soft (an unknown though) and Kirby’s record with ‘trainer change’ horses – 3/35 last 2 years, all combined to put me off. It looks like the one I tipped needs further. Got that wrong, but I can live with those. You have to deal with ‘missed winners’ and hopefully you came out ahead on the day, or not much damage was done.

Moving On.

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Thanks for all of your Christmas messages/best wishes, much appreciated. I’m still yet to come to terms with the fact that Roddo listens to Stormzy!! I’d better fire up Spotify and have a listen 🙂 

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Other Updates… well I have lost track of the days of the week. I need to update results for the advised strategies and write a ‘week that was’ article, but I may have a week off on that front and return next week, I’ll see.

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As always GL with any bets today,

Josh