2.15 Market Rasen
Boric – 2 point win – 6/1 (gen) 13/2 (Bet365/places) UP
*oh bugger, well I expected him to lead and he didn’t, and after that it wasn’t the best of viewing. Much of a nothing run. Damn. Another great finish. Moving on.
As always on Boxing Day I am running out of time. I have gone for a ‘less is more’ approach today on the tipping front, having spread myself too thin in previous years, tipping in races without looking properly. I picked this race out as the one I wanted to attack and have gone with Boric here. IF he runs his race and doesn’t take a fence home with him (he’s a very solid jumper usually) I think he may decimate this field. I toyed with bringing out the 3 pointer but have stuck with 2. I think there is every chance he makes all here and on what he has done this season he should be the favourite for this. He hasn’t run a bad race this year. At Carlisle he just got caught when maybe a lack of race fitness just caught up with him but it was a photo. The front two were miles clear that day. He chased home Audacious Plan next time out and he has since gone in again as has the horse who was third behind him. Those two were miles clear that day, AP was miles clear with one other NTO- and the horse he beat that day has since come out and won also. All in all he has the best recent form in this. Oh and he ran with credit LTO in a much hotter race than this. He was in a pace battle for the most part and was leading to 5 out or so, rallied a bit up the straight, before fading. He was simply outclassed but no harm in that. Provided that race didn’t take too much out of him he should go close here. I can’t see an excuse. He is the only one in this with proven stamina really and soft ground is no question. The rest have a few questions against them, including class. There were not any ‘unexposed’ ones I wanted to be on at the prices. He will have track position and the rest will have to close on him.
I will be disappointed if he doesn’t go close here. Well. I think he could sluice up. He does keep creeping up the handicap and something with more in hand could nap him. But in these long distance chases I think stamina, handling conditions, jumping and track position , as well as recent wellbeing, are far more important than weight and handicap ratings.
I expect a big run, hence the 2 points. I think he is 2 points too big here. With any luck he is leading after 2 fences and in a nice rhythm. He will play catch me if you can. I’m banking on no one catching him here. Solid. To glory.
Elsewhere… well I have no strong views on the King George. It looks a cracker and I won’t be betting in it. I do fear that Thistlecrack is more likely to be PU than to win but I hope I’m wrong on that. It would be magical if he could win. if BDM wins then he is clearly a GC contender- we will know after today I think. If MB runs his race clearly he is the one to beat. Just a great race to watch.
I like Wakanda in 2.10 Wetherby… but I have missed his price really. 6s-8s maybe ok but 4s seemed about right. And I think he was around 10s a couple days ago, for a race he was always going to run in. Another BlackLion!! (I did nearly deliberate tipping this one at 10s, I may live to regret that) They will try and make all and he ran a cracker in this last year. It will have been the target but there are a couple of interesting ones in this near the head of the market also. 4s is not a bankable price to my eyes but hopefully he runs his race. Greatrex and Skelton may have something to say about that though.
Kerry Lee (12/1< SP)
1.40 Weth – Grey Gold
V Williams November (tracking in Dec, she’s been very quiet this autumn)
3.00 Hunt – Becauseshesaidso
Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live Test
12.30 Weth – Dick Darsie
2.10 Weth – Wakanda
1.30 Winc – Padge (12/1< guide)
Harry Fry Mares
3.15 Winc – Secret Door
2.10 Weth -Actinpieces
That’s the lot for today.
GL with any bets,