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Boxing Day 2017 (complete)

Section 1 (complete) , NOTES x4, + Test Zone

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

 

Huntingdon

11.40 – Laval Noir (hncp hurdle) 8/1  WON 9/2 

12.40 – Norse Light (all hncps) H1 I3 G3 5/2 S4  WON 4/1 

1.15 –

Seven Kingdoms (all hncps)  25/1 S2 UP

Cloth Cap (m2) 11/1 S2 WON 11/1>10/1

Sisania (hncp hurdle) 20/1 S2 UP

1.50 – 

King Cool (nov hncps) I3 8/1 S5    UP

As You Like (nov hncps) G3 6/1  UP 

 

Sedgefield

12.25 – Jokers and Rogues (all hncps) ES+ 9/2 S3A UP

1.35 – 

Tontos Spirit (all hncps + m1) ES+ I1 7/2  S3A UP

Dark And Dangerous (all hncps) 14,30  I3 G3 8/1   UP

Danceintothelight (m2) 14,30  ES I1 12/1  S2 S3 S5  UP

2.05 – Whitsundays (m2) H3 3/1 2nd 

2.40 – 

Instant Replay (m1) 7/1 UP

Hit And Run (m1) 14,30  H1 I3 G1 3/1 S4  WON 3/1>2/1 

 

Wetherby

2.10 – 

Baywing (all hncps) 14,30  I1 13/2 UP

Get On The Yager (hncp chase) 30 H3 G1 7/2  WON 7/2 

2.45 – 

Cape Hideaway (all hncps) I3 G3 16/1 S1 S2 S5 UP

Nicely Indeed (m1+ m2)  9/1  UP

Little Bruce (m1 + m2) H3 I1 11/2  3rd 

3.20 – 

Miss Amelia (all hncps + hncp hurdle) 12/1 S2 UP

Asum (m1 + m1) 16/1 S2 WON 16/1>10/1 (R4 tbc) 

 

Market Rasen

3.25 – Tyrell (hncp hurdle) ES I3 11/1 S2 S3 S5 UP

 

Fontwell 

12.20 – 

Minellatillmorning (all hncps + hncp hurdle) ES+

Alka Step (m1) 14 ES  16/1 S2 S3 UP

Jebs Gamble (m1)14 ES H3 I1 G3 7/1 S3 S4  3rd 

Be Daring (m1) 7/1 UP

Yukon Delta (m2) ES 12/1 S2 S3 UP

2.00 – 

Atlantic Roller (m1) G3 6/1  2nd 

Brown Bear (m1) 14 ES H3 I1 G3 11/8  S3 S4  UP

2.35 – 

Champagne George (all hncps + hncp hurdle) ES+ 12/1 S2 S3A   UP

Vicenza Mio (m1) G3 11/2 UP

Notre Ami (m1) 14 ES H3 5/1 S3  2nd 

Knocknanuss (m2) ES H1 I1 G1 15/8  S3 S4  WON 15/8>5/4 

3.10 – Colmers Hill (hncp chase)  14/1 S2 2nd 

3.45 – Molly Carew (all hncps + hncp hurdle) ES+ H1 2/1  S3A

 

Wincanton

1.30 – 

Differen Gravy (all hncps)  20/1 S2 UP

Persian Delight (hncp hurdle + m1+ m2) ES+ H3 G3 5/1 S3A. UP

Poker Play (m1) 5/1 UP

Saffron Wells (m1) 30  ES H3 G3 8/1  S3 UP

2.05 – 

Wizards Bridge (hncp chase,m2) 30 ES+ H3 G3 15/2  S3A UP

Abracadabrasivola (m1) 16/1 S2 UP

2.40 – Monsieur Co (m2) ES+ H3 G3 9/4 S3A UP

 

Kempton 

1.20 – 

Reigning Supreme (nov hncp) 14,30  H3 9/2 UP

Wenyerreadyfreddie (nov hncps) 14,30 8/1 UP

3.40 – 

Wolfcatcher (all hncps) 20/1 S2 UP

Take To Heart (m1 + m2) 14,30 10/1 S2 

 

Bonus (Ireland)

2.45 Limerick – Rosie Alice (hncp hurdle) H3 7/2 UP

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HERE      Jumps 2017/18: HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 17th Dec)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

*

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (01/09/17-) (30/171, +109) (1 point win bets)

 

NOTES

  1. 11.40 Hunt – Laval Noir – 1 point win – WON 6.75/1 (10p R4 on 15/2)
  2. 1.50 Hunt – As You Like – 1 point win – 6/1 (gen) UP 3/1
  3. 3.20 Weth – Miss Amelia – 1 point win – 11/1 (gen) UP
  4. 3.25 Market R – Tyrell – 1 point win – 11/1 (gen) UP

 

That’s it for ‘tips’ from what looks most interesting from all sections/qualifiers, to my ‘magic formula’ eyes (unexposed/doing something different/6/1+ etc).

Well time has got the better of me, as I thought it may. I wasn’t getting up earlier than 7 and yesterday was the first day of 2017 where I haven’t turned on a computer, it was quite relaxing!

All four of those above are unexposed and doing something different (a few are doing a few things). I though there were solid reasons for why they all looked a shade overpriced.

Elsewhere I think there is every chance McCain has a good day at Sedgefield…of the shorties on the page today I thought his Hit And Run looked the best, but hopefully S4 can have a solid enough day. His other shortie looks decent also.

Time well tell.

GL with any bets, and enjoy the day. If that means setting a ‘Boxing Day Budget’ then so be it,

Josh

 

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3.Micro System Test Zone

TTP All-Weather

Wolvs

1.10 Top Offer (m1) ES I1 18/1  S3 S6 

1.45 – Born To Be Alive (3yo+) ES 15/2 S3 

3.25 – My Amigo (3yo+) ES H3 11/2 S3

4.00 – Outer Space (m1) ES I1 G3 7/1 S2 S3

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S Dow Nov/Dec AW

1.45 Wolv – Eminem

3.25 Wolv – Dutiful Son

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D McCain (14/1< guide)

2.40 Sedg – Hit And Run (m3) WON

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Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

1.50 Hunt – Land League (m3) UP

2.25 Hunt – Grageelagh Girls (m1 + m2) UP

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Tom Lacey (any odds)

12.35 MR – Silk Run UP

1.45 MR – Kimberlite Candy WON 8/1>13/2 

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4.Any general messages/updates etc

Crikey…well as expected it’s a bit like three Saturday’s worth of qualifiers all in one. Plenty of handicaps etc. There are many ways you can approach section 1 

  • Don’t bother looking/ignore them/just put your feet up and watch ITV/RUK 🙂 
  • If you follow any strategies systematically then clearly they should be backed. 
  • If you like to attack the qualifiers and using them as starting points..as always, you could ignore any qualifiers that are under a certain price (excluding any S4 quals, that’s usually under 6/1 for me generally, rarely under 9/2), or try attacking them with the Magic Formula (section 1 qualifiers / unexposed/lightly raced in race type/doing something different)- I haven’t looked through the list yet, but the likes of Laval Noir fit into that category. If you pick any of those out then do post a comment! You could just focus on those with ratings pointers or ‘trainer form indicators” (they are to follow, not up on Geegeez yet from what I can see) etc. Fingers crossed there are some decent priced winners up there. I’ll do my best to trawl through and pick out in ‘the notes’ what looks most interesting to my eyes. 

 

MERRY CHRISTMAS TO YOU AND YOUR FAMILIES. 

 

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That’s the lot for today.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

39 Responses

  1. Merry Christmas to you too Josh. I posted this on Saturday’s page but just in case it was missed, I’ve pasted it below as well.

    As promised, here are my results to date. For completeness and at the request of Colin, I’ve also given results to SP.
    Week 1 (12-17 Dec)
    Early/BOG – Staked 46 pts, Profit 28.2pts, ROI 61.3%
    To SP – Profit 13.75, ROI 29.89%

    Week 2 (18 – 23 Dec)
    Early/BOG – Staked 69pts, Profit -1.8pts, ROI -2.61%
    To SP – Profit -21pts, ROI -30.43%

    Profits also include Rule 4 deductions.

    Clearly Early/BOG is the way to go and I don’t think there is much value in providing results to SP going forward.

    Another few weeks like Week 1 would be nice.

    Back with AW action from Wolves on Tuesday. Wishing you all a Merry Christmas.

    Reply

    1. I hope you all had a very merry Christmas.

      AW action from Wolves tomorrow. Qualifiers as follows:
      12.05 Little Boy Blue 5/1 & Los Camachos 13/2
      12.40 Blue Harmony 13/2
      1.10 Top Offer 16/1 & Ingleby Angel 6/1
      1.45 Emenem 5/1 & Mythical Madness 11/1
      3.25 Dutiful Son 6/1 & Mr Christopher 7/1
      4.00 Outer Space 6/1 & Right Action 8/1
      Good Luck.

      Reply

  4. Merry Christmas Josh, thanks for all the hard work and hopefully a prosperous time over the Christmas period..
    I`m on Thistlecrack on Boxing Day and Chase the Spud for Welsh National!

    Reply

  5. Merry Christmas to All and to all…have a great day

    start the day with a bet on LAVAL NOIR (11.40 Huntingdon) currently 16/1 on BF…..in a handicap 1st time, up 4 furlongs in distance, Trainer has best course record for past 5 seasons of the runners, and it’s a past course winner of a bumper !

    Reply

    1. Yes looks good at 16/1 and am on. Going through the Boxing Day cards today and so will post thoughts later.

      Merry Christmas to all.

      Reply

    3. Well done Norman, you got a good price there, as did many others hopefully. Still looked good to my eyes at 8s today. His handicap debutants at Hunt have served us well in last two seasons, 16/1 winner last season also. very similar profile. Thanks for posting that when you did, ensure many would have had a nice bonus!

      Reply

  7. Merry Christmas Josh & Thanks for all your hard work throughout the year producing the racing to profit content for all your subscribers keep up the great work in 2018!

    Reply

  9. Merry Christmas everyone and happy new year – Thank you for all the hard work that goes on here, much appreciated.

    Reply

  10. merry christmas Josh and to all on here, boxing day looks a bit of a battle and i’m going to limit myself to the ratings pointers
    £3 g3 or h3
    £4 g3 and h3
    £4 g1 or h1
    £5 g1 and h3,h1 and g3
    £6 g1 and h1
    i make that £78 be interesting to see what the returns are.

    Reply

  14. Thanks very much for all the hard work you put into the site Josh and to all who regularly post there thoughts and selections. It really is an education too get so many insights from some very astute people and yet never an angry word exchanged
    May yourselves and loved ones have a peaceful day tomorrow
    And continued success and a prosperous new year to everybody
    Thanks very much all
    Aaron

    Reply

  15. Listening to ELO and Johnny Cash !! Are you a child of the fifties ? Get some Stormzy on and i’m a pensioner soon.
    Merry Christmas Josh and all. Top man who produces the best site there is.

    Reply

  16. Merry Xmas All,

    Haven’t got my micro codes with me but the odd qualifier to add.

    Hunt
    1.15 – Cloth Cap (micro runs)

    Sisania (HcH)

    Font
    3.10 – Colmers Hill (HcCh)

    Mike

    Reply

  17. Merry Christmas guys. Hope you’re all having a good one. As my main celebrations were yesterday I managed to spend the last four hours flicking between HRB and GGG so here you go(I have no energy left for any sort of write ups)
    Trojan Star Huntingdon 12:40 1pt e/w
    Running Wolf Market Rasen 13:45 1pt e/w
    Boric Market Rasen 14:15 1pt e/w (try and get on with Sky who are best price and paying 4)

    Have also thrown a fiver e/w on Satellite and Doesyourdogbite in the last race at Market Rasen and Kempton respectively.

    Reply

  18. OK, I hope Christmas Day went well for you? It went well at this end. I am at football Boxing Day watching Millwall beat the league leaders (well someone has to do it!). I have been through the Boxing Day cards and have the following thoughts:

    11.40 Hun, Laval Noir, on at 16/1, already mentioned above;
    12.30 Wet, Honest Intent, on at 8/1, looks a reasonable price in a race of this standard;
    12.45 KP, Diese Des Bieffes, will trade at 3/1+, looked a good winner LTO and will follow until beaten;
    1.20 KP, Reigning Supreme, will trade at 3/1+, highly rated by Hendo and will follow until beaten; Also if it runs Theo’s Charm, will trade at 8/1+, brought down at the first the other day when fancied;
    1.30 Win, Bastien, on at 5/1; ran on well to win LTO and should relish another test;
    1.55 KP, Ballyoptic, will trade at 7/2+, looking to fulfil his promise at last;
    2.00 MR, Bredon Hill Lad, will trade at 3/1+, good win LTO and may have the beating of this lot;
    2.10 Wet, Aloomono, on at 7/2, promising run LTO and can progress;
    2.15 MR, Boric, on at 10/1. will be suited by extreme distances I think;
    2.30 KP, Buvier Dair, will trade at 1/3+, will outclass these if all is well;
    3.05 KP, Might Bite, will trade at 2/1+ and Bristol De Mai, will trade at 4/1+, both high class horses.

    I obviously wont get matched on all these trades on the exchanges but some I will and I do not want to take anything lower for value.

    Good luck.

    Reply

  19. Merry Christmas Josh hope you had a lovely day.

    I live about 8 miles NW of Kempton and its there’s been plenty of rain this evening here. Bristol De Mai weather.
    Hugh

    Reply

  20. HY everywhere I think.
    2.45 Wetherby Modulus 25/1 EW
    1.30 Wincanton Persian Delight 9/2
    2.05 Wincanton Krackatoa King 9/2
    1.15 Huntingdon Marvelous Monty 14/1 EW NAP
    2.40 Sedgefield Wind of Hope 20/1 EW (PTP HY ground horse, back in trip, jockey won on horse before)

    Reply

  21. 5 races on ITV.
    Kempton
    1-20. Whenyerreadyfreddie 8-1
    1-55.Black Corton 5-1 (close call with Ballyoptic )
    3-05. Whisper 7-1
    Wetherby
    2-10. Wakanda 5-1

    in the kempton 2-30 Buveur D’air is 1-5 fav which is unplayable at that price so i’ll probably have a silly £2 on Mohaayed 66-1,100-1+ on betfair.
    best of the rest.
    Hunt 11-40 Laval Noir missed the boat price wise but there’s still a bit of 10-1 around.
    12-40 Norse Light 3-1
    Sedge 2-40 Hit and Run 7-2

    gl if your having a punt today.

    Reply

  22. I don’t usually have dreams about horseracing but Kaloci in 2.25 Hunt. i saw in racing post results first.Dont think that’s a proven method but it did provide Royal Vacation last year and Chase The spud Midlands Grand National

    Reply

    1. It is just that you have been thinking about it and then your sub conscious decided to download it whilst you were asleep. Good luck anyway.

      Reply

      1. Your right there Martin,hope my sub consious is working a litte better than my consious mind at the moment

        Reply

  23. Merry Christmas Josh and all here…Woke up on top of the bed..one shoe on…foot freezing. Wife in other room…..Bad sign.
    Just going with Josh’s 4 in notes…Then off to anther bash….O well. Have a large all.

    Tony Mc……Best wishes.

    Reply

  24. regarding dreaming about winners

    a close friend of mine, came into a betting office one morning

    he told me he had dreamt of the first 3 dog races
    trap 5 to win first race
    trap 6 to win second race
    and the third race was a photo between 1 & 2

    i don’t expect anyone to believe this
    i’m writing this and i still find it hard to believe it happened

    however it happened exactly has he had dreamed.

    makes me wonder about feelings we get when we see a horse
    and we no it’s going to win.
    and everyone has done that even though a majority of us never bet the horse
    because we don’t bet on just feelings.

    Reply

  25. As we are on the “Dream” theme ……. this has happened to me twice in my life (and im an old man ) i dreamt Garrison Savannha won the Gold cup (the night before) and it duly obliged …….. several years later i had a dream ,whilst on holiday with the family , that a horse had won at Worcester … i had not seen any newspapers or horse racing during this holiday , cant even remember the name of it now but convinced the misses i had to go get a paper ….. weirdly i saw the horse in question entered at Warwick ( i think) shot off to find a bookies and whacked 20quid on it …… duly obliged !

    I have never had another horse race dream since and believe me ive tried !! 🙂

    So i would certainly back it yourself Gearoid

    Good Luck 🙂

    Reply

  29. Good to start the day with a 16/1 winner put up a few days ago

    Now hoping to finish the day with 3.25 M Rasen TYRELL & 3.45 Fontwell ROYAL CLARET

    I backed OUR KAEMPFER 3.40 Kemp a few days ago but I thought conditions might have changed, with a few non-runners but it never happened, so ever hopeful…..

    Reply

  30. Didn’t get 16s with lavell Noir but a good winner anyway…..had a nice few winners with sp2a…so happy.

    Watched the reds destroy Swansea 5-0…so a happy man.

    Tony Mc,,,

    Reply

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Thank you for reading my blog and being part of the Racing to Profit community. As always if you’ve any questions or thoughts, post a comment on today’s blog post or hit the ‘contact Josh’ button to the right hand side.  If you’re about to leave the blog, I can’t wait to welcome you back soon. 

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