Members Daily Post:23/12/17 (complete)

Section 1 + test zone + Hurdle shortlist

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Newcastle 

2.00-

The Lady Rules (all hncps) 16/1 S2 3rd 25/1 

Christmas In USA (m1) G3 8/1 UP

Morning With Ivan (m1) H3 G3 11/2  WON 11/2>9/2 

 

Haydock

1.35 –

Eamon An Cnoic (all hncps + m1+m1) H1 G1 5/2  UP

Positively Dylan (m1) I1 5/1  UP

2.45 –

Broadway Buffalo (all hncps +m1+m1) ES 8/1 S3 UP

Three Faces West (m2) H1 G3  3/1 Fell

3.20 – The Gipper (hncp hurdle) G3 20/1 S1 S2 UP

 

Ascot

1.50 –

Casse Tete (hncp chase) I3 10/1 S2 S5 UP

Volt Face (hncp chase) 16/1 S2 PU

Pougne Bobbi (m2) 14,30 I3 11/2 UP

3.00-

Ptit Zig (hncp chase) 20/1 S2 UP

Frodon (hncp chase) H3 I3 11/1 S2 S5 2nd 11/1>8/1

Yala Enki (m1) ES  14/1 S2 S3 UP

OO Seven (m2) 14,30 12/1 S2 UP

Gold Present (m2) 14,30  8/1  WON 17/2 

3.35 –

Air Horse One (hncp hurdle) I3 G3 11/1 S1 S2 S5  UP

Verdana Blue (m1 + m2) 14,30 H3 I3 9/1 3rd 5/1 

 

*

KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 17th Dec)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (01/09/17-) (30/171, +109) (1 point win bets)

No ‘tips’ today.

It all looks rather competitive and nothing from above I wish to ‘tip’. I am about to dive into the 3pm properly on the free post, given it’s a 3m+ handicap chase- although that could give me a headache. I have backed Verdana Blue / Elgin / Air Horse One, and they are listed in order of my own preference. Those three could well be battling this out over the last, not impossible. Soft is a question for VB and I don’t know if he will handle it, but it’s an unknown. He could still have a stack in hand. They hit plenty of my stats below and I’d be disappointed if one or more didn’t go very close, but we shall see. Some interest bets on those. I have very much gone with the trends and haven’t analysed all the other horses in much depth. Looking at the test zone and I think the McCain/Lacey horses could both go very close. McCain’s could well make all, 11/2 looked ok and he is being supported. Lacey’s looked like he’d learnt to settle LTO but he will need to again here. Lacey does well when moving horses in distance. The ground is an unknown but in a race where plenty may have handicaps in mind further down the line I thought he looked interesting. He is there to win I suspect. But then again it’s a novice hurdle so anything could happen!

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

TTP All-Weather

NONE.

 

D McCain (14/1< guide)

3.20 Had – Chti Balko (m2/m3) WON 11/2>10/3

 

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

1.00 Had – Cap Soleil WON 11/10

 

Tom Lacey (any odds)

11.45 News – Snapdragon Fire 3rd 5/1>10/3

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

Big Race Stats/Trends

SAT: Ascot 2m Hncp Hurdle

11 renewals, 11/193 runners, 40 placed horses

11/11 Official Rating was higher than LTO (0/85,13p same or lower)

11/11 had 2+ runs in handicap hurdles (0/53,11p had 0-1)

  • 9/11 had 2-4 runs in handicap hurdles
  • 3 runs only in handicap hurdles: 6/19 runners, 9p, +65 BFSP

11/11 had 0-2 runs in prev 90 days (3+ 0/55,8p)

11/11 had 0-2 handicap hurdle wins

11/11 had 2-4 hurdle wins (0-1, 0/38,8p)

11/11 Top 4 LTO

11/11 had placed at least once on last two starts (0/42,4p had not)

9/11 had won at least once on last three starts

8/11 aged 5 or 6 (8/100 runners, 20 places, 72% winners, 50% of the runners, 50% places)

Claiming jockeys: 0/64, 11p

Trainers: N Henderson (3) G Elliot (2)  1 win – Fry/Skelton/Hobbs/Pipe/A King , P Nicholls (0/14,4p)

 

Shortlist:

I think all of the 11/11 stats leave just two: Verdana Blue 3rd + Air Horse One UP

Elgin UP is the only horse in the race with 3 handicap hurdle runs only, and those stats are very good for the number of runners.

 

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Welsh Grand National 

For those who wish to start early… I am not sure these will help too much but some decent pointers…

20/20 Top 6 LTO

20/20 ran 16-60 days ago (outside of this, 0/60,4p)

19/20 Aged 9 or younger (10+ , 1/84, 11p)

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10 years (10/190 runners, 40 places)

10/10 Top 6 LTO (7th worse 0/59,9p)

9/10 Aged 6-8 (9+ 1/95,18p.. aged 9 0/55,11p, 10+ 1/40,7p)

9/10 had 1-3 handicap chase wins (9/108,29p,  57% of runners, 90% of winners, 73% of placed horses)

8/10 had 2+ runs in prev 90 days (1 only – 2/75,11p, 40% runners, 20% winners, 25% places horses)

Of some mild interest, and maybe random but some logic… given the place stats it could be there is nothing to it..

-Jockeys that had ridden horse 0-2 times previoulsy: 2/97,16p

-Jockeys had ridden horse 3+ times previously: 8/93, 24p

Horses that had won 3+ times in the going: 5/34,13p, +34 BFSP

2+ places at Chepstow: 6/44,15p, +50

Horse carried 11-11 or 11-12 LTO: 0/39,5p (that could be random, scratching my head for any logic there)

10/10 ran at following tracks LTO: Chep (3/19,7p,+51) / Sandown / Newbury / Chet / Navan

 

Shortlist: To follow on 26th/27th

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

29 Responses

  1. Another bad day for my selections. A number of places again but nothing got up to take the spoils. As I mentioned, I’m still refining and tweaking the strategy and have identified a slight change that will hopefully bring dividends. Tomorrow is the first try out.

    Lingfield
    1.45 Petite Jack 13/2
    2.20 Entertaining Ben 17/2 & Mr Pocket 4/1
    2.55 Majeed
    3.30 Bartholomew J 14/1

      1. I’ve not had a financial interest in any of the bets Ken so please don’t think I’m being critical, but some of these races are full of mischievous monkeys. Is just a suggestion, but have you tried filtering the methodology by taking the really poor races out? Setting a minimum level of prize money as a qualifier for example?

        Tim

        1. As we discussed the other day you always need to be refining. Maybe race value could work or number of runners etc? Your sample size is still small and difficult to say. Interesting that Southwell is not working out. Perhaps exclude for now? Any way good luck and Merry Christmas.

    1. Hi Ken….It’s a brave man who put’s his head above the parapet, so don’t be put off by bad runs…They are inevitable…my method is to sporadic for the page, although over a period it does me fine. Don’t tinker yourself out of a winning method because your hitting a bad run now. Tides turn like fortunes…so stick with it.

      Happy Christmas Ken and future luck.

      Tony Mc.

    2. One win today gives us a small profit for the day.

      As promised, here are my results to date. For completeness and at the request of Colin, I’ve also given results to SP.
      Week 1 (12-17 Dec)
      Early/BOG – Staked 46 pts, Profit 28.2pts, ROI 61.3%
      To SP – Profit 13.75, ROI 29.89%

      Week 2 (18 – 23 Dec)
      Early/BOG – Staked 69pts, Profit -1.8pts, ROI -2.61%
      To SP – Profit -21pts, ROI -30.43%

      Profits also include Rule 4 deductions.

      Clearly Early/BOG is the way to go and I don’t think there is much value in providing results to SP going forward.

      Another few weeks like Week 1 would be nice.

      Back with AW action from Wolves on Tuesday. Wishing you all a Merry Christmas.

      1. Well done Ken, a nice winner to break the losing streak. Plenty more racing on the all weather going forward and so lots of time to let your system roll.

        Also Nick was unlucky with Frodon who did everything right but got beat by one! I thought today was very hard. Coney Island at 6/4 was a good price on the day as I was expecting odds on. I have backed him at 33/1 for the Gold Cup.

        Merry Christmas everyone. Back for Boxing Day, the studying starts now (Allowing for drinking time)!

      2. Hope this makes you feel better, Just had 20 losers then a 5/1 winner (whoopee) then a run of 33 losers! I guess that’s as bad as it can get with my largest expected losing streak to be 31. Happy Christmas!!

  2. Lil Rockerfeller Ascot Saturday 14:25 1pt e/w-I don’t think its a secret just how much I love this horse who has to be one of my favourite horses in training. Tipped him at the festival when he went agonisingly close and also in this race last year when he looked and was a place banker. He seems to have been around forever but he is only 6 and I think he is still on the up. He absolutely loves it at Ascot with a record of 13221 at the track. With questions about both the trainer’s and horse’s form (both Harry’s) I think the fav has to be taken on. I am not sure L’Ami Serge is a 3 miller. Its a little conservative but given I would be disappointed if he was out of the front 3 have gone e/w. Should be up there with the pace behind Sam Spinner and hoping he will be in a good spot to take over when that one fades.
    Frodon Ascot Saturday 15:00 1pt e/w-Has been running in better races for the past year since his Caspian Caviar Cup win a year ago. That was off 149 and he is effectively running off a mark of 146 with Bryony’s claim. This also happens to be the first time he runs in a handicap since that win. Ran a credible race over the trip behind Might Bite and wasn’t disgraced behind Top Notch at the track. Another that will be racing prominently. Singlefarmpayment is probably the best horse in the race but this track wont suit his style and he is not a horse you ever want to be on win only given he is proving hard to win with.
    Elgin Ascot Saturday 15:35 1pt e/w-I really don’t see any reason why to desert him here after I tipped him up LTO. Has ran in 2 extremely hot races before winning the Greatwood which is usually one of the best pieces of form in the first half of the jumps season. Old Guard has franked the form by winning NTO and running well in a Grade 2. He is only 3lbs worse off of Verdana Blue for a 7 length beating. King is arguably in better form now than he was when he won the Greatwood. He fits all the trends. Wayne Hutchinson is a very creditable 14/50, 28p +157 lifetime over hurdles at the track over distances below 20f. King actually said after his win at Cheltenham that he was concerned about the ground being too soft so this ground may even suit him better than LTO.

  3. To Steve C
    Reference your Treble
    Wakanda 12/1 – 2.10 Wetherby 26 Dec ’17
    Supasundae 10/1 – 1.50 Leopardstown 28 Dec ’17
    Agrapart 33/1+ 2.25 Ascot Today

    Agrapart has won 3rd time out in the last two years

    Followed you in, £1 EW Patent & £1 EW Treble

    1. Unfortunately Agrapart is out (not soft enough, as expected)…..and interestingly Lizzie Kelly was on the C4 racing programme and said that the ground in France was ‘like a road’…even though the ‘official’ ground was v soft.

      Agrapart is one to keep on side if he ever gets proper soft/heavy ground again.

      the remaining double has good prospects though.

  4. Somchine 13.35 Haydock is a huge price although he may be still high in the handicap he will relish this ground (Heavy: 11P – the pulled up coming in a Class 2 race). His record when racing at around 2m reads: 1311U31. Andrew Thornton is back on board and he has won 5 times from 17 rides. All wins have come in Class 3 and below and when racing 31 to 60 days after last race his record reads: 111P3

  5. josh,i would like to thank-you for all your hard work through-out the year and wish you and yours a very happy and peaceful christmas and a prosperous new year

    1. Thanks William, likewise to you too. I’ll keep chipping away, hard work is the only way to win at this game, and get through the testing periods.

  6. Hi Josh and all fellow sufferer’s of our great sport..’The Sport of Kings’…
    I’d like to wish you all a very happy and peaceful Christmas, a prosperous New Year…and to our Scottish compatriot’s ‘Lang may your lum reek’

    Tony Mc.

  7. Hi Josh / Nick , Glad you’ve tipped Frodon. Backed him at 12’s last night.
    As a five year old, he looks the most unexposed in the field and over the trip. Was a massive eye-catcher to me last time at Ascot after being held out the back before finishing off really well before jumping the last behind Top Notch and Double Shuffle.
    Won the Caspian Caviar last year as a 4 year old, and this is arguably the easiest race he’s ran in since winning a small field grade 2 at Kempton in Feb, beating Gold Present by 2 lengths. Frodons now 2lb better off with Gold Present if you account for Bryony Frosts claim.

    As a flyer I’ve had a small bet on Bigbadjohn at 33’s who hits some key trends i loaded in to HRB and who won the Reynoldstown here last season. Horse and trainer been in no form recently but had to have a speculative flyer.

    Ive also backed Intern in the 1.45 at Lingfield, L’ami Serge in the 2.25 at ascot and also Bering Upsun at Newcastle at 2.00 on what looks a tricky saturday before xmas.

    Best of look and have a good xmas everyone.

  8. Wishing Josh and all the members a happy Christmas,my advice as last year is to close down the laptop until Wednesday,watch and enjoy the King George and racing in general.

  9. Does anyone have a opinion in the Ascot 1.50 , i have a free bet (25 quid) and have been scratching my head for an hour 🙂

    Thanks in advance

    Merry Christmas to you ALL

    1. ah it does look tricky… market is suggesting the Moore qualifier may not be fit and that was the main unknown, and general lack of experience, could be big ask first time up but he could be anything, if a1 he is no forlorn hope. Longsdon’s should try and make all and depends if the headgear works, it needs to. pros and cons for plenty in this and many are fit/in form. I’d pick something at a price given it’s free, feels open. GL!

  10. Don’t think there’s a harder race to have an opinion on all day.

    Henderson thinks Pougne Bobbi will go well ….the Gifford yard had the winner of the ‘best bumper this year’ yesterday and virtually everything else has run well in last couple of weeks. Theos Charm is a good horse and would appear to be up to this…but yard thing this might be a furlong or two too short.
    I’d go for PB if it was my free £25…but seriously anything else could win it!

  11. Poker School clearly has his quirks and won this last year so would be my pick if I had to pick something. At bigger prices Un Beau Roman is probably due to go in soon probably when least expected.

  12. Rock on Rocky wouldn’t be a bad about based on its last 2 runs in this grade. This race doesn’t seem no harder than those 2 races, finishing a respectable 5th at Cheltenham then 2nd last time behind the well in overtown express with the 140odd rated theinval in 3rd

    1. Ooh great shout there Leon …… so close

      Thanks to everyone that contributed , i failed to back the winner as it happens but just goes to show what a difficult race it was and with the early faller …who knows ?

      🙂

      1. ha, yep sadly none of us could land on that one! Great finish. Theos unlucky, had his legs taken from under him by the Moore horse jumping across. Thankfully no damage done. Did go to an ‘in form’ trainer although there were four of those in that race.

  13. The Lady Rules… one to note there…I’d need to watch it again but I can’t work out if Jamie Hamilton is just unpolished/unique riding style, or whether that horse could have got a fair bit closer. Showed enough ability there to win a weak handicap hurdle. Drifted.

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