Members Daily Post: 20/12/17 (complete)

NOTES x2 , Section 1 + weekly article + AW

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Ludlow

2.30 – Battle of Shiloh (hncp chase) ES+H3 I3 G3 4/1 S3A S4  PU

3.05 –

Dovil’s Date (all hncps) ES  12/1 S2 S3 UP

Prussian Eagle (m2) 12/1 S2 2nd 6/1 

3.35 – Thibault (NHF) 15/2 3rd 

 

Newbury

2.40 – Red Riverman (hncp hurdle) 10/1 S2 2nd 9/1 

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 17th Dec)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (01/09/17-) (29/168, +106.4) (1 point win bets)

 

2.40 New – Red Riverman – 10/1 2nd 9/1 (15pR4)

3.05 Lud – Dovils Date – 12/1 UP 16/1 

 

They say if you throw enough mud, some of it will stick! 🙂 Or is it none. Either way I couldn’t help myself with these two. It’s clearly no big secret that my ‘notes jumps eyes’ are struggling a bit at the moment but plenty have beaten SP and many have ran well enough. These two are anything but unexposed but they are doing plenty different and I thought there was enough there at the price… the logic…

Red Riverman –Ah, no complaints there, he has bumped into one- maybe hoping for both the top two to falter was asking for too much, a hindsight ‘EW would have been best’ bet, and I’ve had a few of those recently! But that’s not the way I play, maybe that needs some pondering. The winner is clearly destined for a higher level, at least a Ludlow C3! RR is clearly still in form but will need to be well placed at this time of year.  firstly I think we can put a line through his last run, around the ‘always on the turn’ Fakenham. I was there this day and as they returned to the paddock Sam said to his Dad, and I quote ‘we’re never bringing him back here again’. I don’t think he liked the experience. He returns to a more galloping track and drops in class here. It could well be he is now just out of form but if you ignored that run then this horse has been in some sort of form for all of 2017, since he returned from 18 months off. He is a hardy handicap chaser in a race where all of the principals are lightly raced and have questions to answer in this sphere. Answer them they may do but Newbury takes some jumping and at the prices I thought they were worth taking on. There is a ground question with this one but he has placed in heavy and ran well at Ffos Las in the mud. I thought he may get away with it over 16f. He handles it ok and this race could fall apart. It could be that as he gets older he prefers a bit of cut, with less stress on the jumping joints. Twister can do no wrong this season and I thought if a few of these fail he could pick up the pieces. I hope they race him more prominently and that he can get into a rhythm. I was happy to roll the dice at 10s.

Dovils Date – a drift to 16/1 and held up last, although I don’t think it made a difference. The other one ran well in 2nd, bumping into one. They’ll stop doing that at some point. Frustrating. four hurdles starts ago he was rated 128 and comes here today off 119. He is 3/8,5p in handicap hurdles when rated 111-120, 1/11 above this. He drops markedly in trip here and from a decent enough C2 to a moderate C4. One of the main reasons for having a go was the pace – this race is here to be won from the front and given he has made all before I really do hope they change tactics and blast off. They seem to race him more patiently over further, probably to help him stay the trip. But he has often made all/raced prominently over this distance. The ground should be ok and he has won on soft if it is more testing than advertised. He was also in some sort of form on his penultimate start, winning on the AW. Tim Vaughan’s are going ok, the jockey is in form, and she has won at the track. If they hold this one up it would sum up my current troubles, but they really should be aggressive.This could be won from the front and with any luck some of the riders in behind may mistime their challenges and let her get away. I have had a nibble on Prussian Eagle also as he is no forlorn hope and having stuck my neck out on one, the way things have been going, I thought that was wise. Plenty of 10/1+ horses have looked up against it in recent weeks and most have ran as such. I have called the odd one wrong but the three today look more interesting on paper than a lot of recent biggies, even if they also join the recent cast of tailed off runners.

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3.Micro System Test Zone

TTP All-Weather

Lingfield 

12.40 – Cosmic Love (2YO) 2nd 20/1>12/1

Kempton – None

 

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

3.45 New – Aweemint (m2)

 

Richard Hobson

2.40 Newb – Ramonex

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

The Week That Was: #7 READ HERE>>>

This week I take a look at a few notebook horses as usual. In ‘stats the way to do it‘ (I should think of another name but ‘research corner sounded equally naff!) I’ve taken a look at Harry Bannister, Miss R Donald and Richard Hobson… who looks well worth keeping a very very close eye. His set up/MO is a bit different to most.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

14 Responses

  1. Well that was a disappointing day at Southwell with only one selection getting close but boy was that close – beaten on the nod! However, that’s racing so we move on, still in profit. Two AW meetings tomorrow at Lingfield and Kempton. Qualifiers as follows:

    Lingfield
    11.40 Brigham Young 15/2
    12.10 Classic Charm 25/1
    12.40 Daybreak 11/2
    1.10 Black Dave 9/2
    2.20 Strictly Carter 13/2 & Billyoakes 13/2
    2.55 Volpone Jelois 5/1

    Kempton
    4.40 La Maquina 9/1
    5.40 Talas 11/2
    6.40 Pretty Bubbles 7/1
    7.10 Courier 4/1 & Veena 14/1
    7.40 Tommy’s Geal 16/1 and Aumerle 16/1
    1pt win each

    If you’re worried about the strain on your bank, maybe go 1/2pt win or wait to see how Lingfield goes before placing bets for Kempton.

    Good Luck

      1. You could be right Martin. Two outsiders for me, although Aumerle has been backed in to 7-8s. You never know 🙂 GL

  2. Shame the price on Buckle Street crumbled last night since he did it well today. Hope some of you had a small bet.

    Bally Gilbert Newbury Wednesday 14:40 1.5pt win-Bally Gilbert really should be favourite here. On his 2nd chase start he went close in a class 3 chase with the top 5-6 all horses who are have ran consistently in class 3s or better. Drops down into a class 4 here. Trainer is a very solid 7/23, 9p in the past 2 years including 2/6, 4p in chases. He is in hot form and the is ridding well with a 1st, 2nd or 3rd in 5 of his last 10 rides. Should be up there with the pace and expect him to go very close.
    Inn The Bull Ludlow Wednesday 15:05 1pt e/w-I am willing to forgive him his last run. Before he was very consistent winning a class 4 and placing NTO in 2 races which have worked out very well( 3 starts ago 2nd was placed and won since as had the 4th and the 5th has won 4 since, 2 starts ago the 2nd was runner up in a class 3 at Cheltenham before winning). Lucy Pinchin has proven herself to be a capable rider so its a bonus she gets 7lbs here against conditionals. Is 1/1 at the track and 1/1 on soft ground albeit on the flat. King is in better form than he was 3 weeks ago and has a solid 5/20, 11p over the past 2 years in hurdles at the track. I respect the favourite but I thought this one looked to have a solid e/w chance.

    1. Given Thomas Brown has drifted out to 13/2 in the 14:30 at Ludlow I have to have 1pt e/w given I think he is fairly automatic at this level but this race looked too hot to have a win only bet on.

  3. Having an evening flick through as I do BRAEMAR 8/1 in the 5:10 at Kempton stuck out. He is well bred entered for the derby owned by K Abdullah but most interesting he’s in the Michael stoute yard which is not where you would normally find Derdy entered horses from that owner.
    Also MONKS VIEW 3:35 Ludlow hits a nice b pauling second career start angle at 14/1.

  4. 13.10 lingfield Black Dave 4 time course winner
    12.20 Ludlow Honest Vic won well last time and I take him to beat the Skelton horse
    14.30 Ludlow Moonbeg charmer won over course and distance last time
    Beating Marcilhac hope fully will do a repeat
    1.00 Newbury Red hot chilly Brennan O’Brien 16.1 worth a e.w.shoot

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