Members Daily Post: 16/12/17 (complete)

All-WEATHER (test zone) + Section 1, , Cheltenham

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointer

Doncaster

12.00 – Pumaflor (hnc hurdle) 8/1 UP

1.05 – Poker School (all hncps) H1 I3 3/1  UP

1.40 – Percy Street (hncp hurdle) G3 11/2 UP

3.20 –

Sego Success (all hncps + m1) G1 5/1 UP

Kilcrea Vale (hncp hurdle)  I3 5/1  UP

Mustmeetalady (m1) 18/1 S2 WON 18/1>16/1 

 

Cheltenham

3.40 –

Brillare Momento (all hncps) H3 I1 15/2 UP

Lamanver Odyssey (all hncps) H3  8/1 UP

Oscar Rose (m2) 8/1 UP

 

Hereford 

None, no stats for this course as yet

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 3rd Dec)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (01/09/17-) (29/163, +111.4) (1 point win bets)

Nothing today.

Nothing at Doncaster lured me in at the prices (my eyes have started to fixate on Vibrato Valtat at 12/1 in the 3.20, in deliberation mode whether to tip him) and the 3.40 Cheltenham is really one of those races you shouldn’t play in- well, i don’t want to – all three qualifiers above are unexposed and could go well, in a race that is generally full of unexposed types whose best days may still be ahead of them. And I just know if I pick one of the three then one of the other two will win! Brillare isn’t moving in trip, soft is a real question/unknown, and she has been given what could be a stiff enough handicap mark. Clearly she could bolt up, as could Fry’s – who as I ponder may be the best of the three- at least she is proven in soft, comes in here form, progressive, and the race LTO has produced winners – but she is open to attack from anything with more in hand. Oscar Rose has stamina to prove/allied to ground- others have achieved more in novice races,where the market suggests she was there to win. But she makes handicap debut and steps back up in trip. It’s just one of those puzzles where you could round and round and end up with a migraine. If you have any strong views then GL! I wouldn’t be confident enough for my tipping stake.

I have given myself a good talking to after yesterday – well much staring out the window in contemplation mode. Make no mistake about it I am in a rut at the moment. Losing runs on the free tips, the Notes and at a times where every strategy bar S4 is having their losing runs all in one lump- it’s tough at the moment, mentally if nothing else. That’s punting. I think yesterday, subconsciously, was an indication of that disease that you never want as a punter – ‘the hunt for winners’ – maybe that was a sign of desperation. Looking for overpriced horses vs ‘finding winners’ is a very different mindset and only one is successful over time I think. There has been too much of the latter at times. So, I am trying to re-set the brain/eyes. The overall ‘tipping figures’ are still bloody good on an ROI front, no problems there. But standards may have slipped and I should stop moping about and be a bit more positive. 90% of this game, if not more, is about what happens between the ears. At times in recent weeks that has been questionable, on a few fronts.

On we go!

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

TTP All-Weather

Newcastle

12.40- Teak (all hncps) 28/1 I3 H3 

3.00 – Modernism (all hncps) 20/1 I1 G3 S2 S6 

3.35 – Without Parole (2yo) 4/6

 

Wolverhampton

6.15 – The Hooded Claw (m1) 11/2 ES S3 

6.45 – Threes A Crowd (all hncps) 28/1

7.15 –

Coronation Day (all hncps) I3 ES+  5/1  S3A

Rajar (m2) H3 10/1

7.45 – Gabrial The Terror (m1) ES 25/1  S3

8.15 –

Influent (all hncps) G3 ES+ 5/1 S3A

Andok (m2)   H3 I3 G3 10/1 S4 S5

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D McCain (14/1< guide)

12.00 Donc – Ink Master (m2,m3)

1.40 Donc – William Of Orange (m2)

 

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

1.20 Chelt – Pearls Legend (m1,m3,m4)

2.30 Chelt – Global Stage (m1)

3.40 Chelt – Oscar Rose (m1)

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Cheltenham December Meeting, ‘Big Meeting Notes‘: Read HERE>>>

Trainer Notes

12.45 – Jameson / Movewiththetimes

1.55 – Le Prezien / Remain De Senanm

2.30 – Count Meribel

3.05 – The New One

3.40 – Copper Kay

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Well Sykes gave me quite a thrill for my nibble at BFSP, 43.00 – I thought I had that won when he kicked for home as everything in behind looked to be struggling. Sadly there was an unexposed Twister horse that relished the step up in trip and out-stayed him. Bugger. Still, it was good fun. Let’s see if we can crack the ‘Caspian Caviar Gold Cup’ . Some caution as this has a smaller field than usual which ‘could’ render any stats pointless.  We shall see…

The Winning Profile?

10/10 aged 8 or younger (18/18 aged 8<)

10/10 Top 2 at least once last 3 runs

10/10 1+ run this season

10/10 placed on at least once on last two starts

10/10 up in trip no further than 2f from last run (so 18f LTO shortest)

10/10 carried 11-8 or less including claims. No horse has carried more than that to victory in 18 years, let alone 10, without the help of a claim. (only 0/17,4p last 10, but makes fav short maybe)

Shortlist: Starchitect / Roman De Senam / Foxtail Hill / Guitar Pete / Deauville Dancer

9/10 ran 21-45 days ago (1/54,6p outside of this), 9/10 had 2-4 runs this season (1 only, 1/49,11p)

Shortlist: those would leave … Starchitect / Roman De Senam / Foxtail Hill

As always, use that info how you please. I may formulate some thoughts.

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Chelt Sat Preview Video

First 10 mins flicks through HRB trainer pointers, the rest is then a quick flick through using Geegeez. 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

14 Responses

  1. Evening folks. Hope some of you were on my two winners at Chelmsford tonight at 11/2 & 6/1.

    Two AW meetings to get stuck into tomorrow at Newcastle and Wolverhampton. I’ll give you fair warning, my results in testing for Newcastle were not that great so hoping for a turnaround there. Still tweaking it and may come up with a slightly different strategy in due course.

    Qualifiers (with prices I took) are as follows:
    Newcastle
    12.40 Strictly Art 5/1
    1.15 Cohesion 6/1
    2.25 Magistral 20/1 & Falcon’s Fire9/1
    3.00 Modernism 16/1
    3.35 Windsor Cross 5/1
    4.05 Qaffall 8/1 & Berniewhittle 10/1
    4.35 Windforpower 9/2

    Wolverhampton
    5.45 Ty Rock Brandy 11/2 & Crystal Deauville 11/2
    6.15 Jessie Allan 6/1
    6.45 Warba 4/1
    7.15 Tropics 4/1 & Coronation Day 11/2
    7.45 Raashdy 4/1 & Pour L’Amour 12/1

    Most still available at those odds with one or two lower and a couple higher. BOG.

    I know that’s a lot of selections so maybe 1/2pt win each horse if you want to manage your bank.

    Good Luck.

    1. Keep it up Ken. You must be in line for the Dunfermline managers job now.

      I like Le Prezien and King’s Odyssey in the 1.55 CH. I like William of Orange each way on the 1.40 Don for the in form McCain stable. I like Sego Success in the 3.20 Don to find his way back into the winners enclosure again after a while out of it. Also for less stakes I will go with Lamanver Odyssey in the 3.40 CH.

      Good luck.

  2. Its just a 1 euro patent on Paddys 3 today and hope for the best.Keep me entertained for afternoon anyway.Its been a funny season so far,hasn’t really come to life at all.Trainers that you would be expecting to knock in winners on a regular basis aren’t really firing at all.Venetia Williams is having a horror so far,Tom George struggling,Philip Hobbs not at the races either.Only thing to do is keep the powder dry until there are signs of life

  3. Maybe I am still drunk from last night’s Xmas party but at the prices I had to have 1pt e/w on Roman De Senam. Apparently Nicholls didn’t think there was much between him and Le Prezien and where as the latter would have liked it (was more heavy than soft) the selection would have absolutely hated it and given today’s ground is much better and closer to good/soft. I also find it interesting that Fehily is on board for the first time given he has ridden most of Chris Giles’ horses when Sam could have ridden. He fits the trends as well. Looks to have a similar profile to Frodon who won it last year.

      1. Yep GL, in the end I had a little nibble on the two biggies on the shortlists…Roman and Foxtail. Ground should be much better than last race. 16/14s worth an interest nibble to find out. GL

        1. Looked like a spin round for Fehily in preparation for the festival not that it really matters in the context of the race.

          1. Awful scenes, poor old Starchitect, he was hacking up there. Horrible to see and that has ruined the day.

            I think it’s safe to say Roman will be going very close in a big handicap on spring ground. In fairness he never jumped there at all, maybe out of the sticky ground etc.

    1. I read/heard somewhere earlier this week about Nicholls saying something about being stretched because Bowen was suspended (can’t remember where but fairly certain i didn’t imagine it)

    1. I bloody hope so haha- it’s all in the maths! We shall see, may be a false dawn but S2 are due a run- 3 more like that and all recent losses wiped out on that front, here’s hoping. In truth I wouldn’t have backed him without Ian/Sp2A fancying him- as I did my best to talk myself out of him. Still, a nice result for any systematic S2 backers, much needed. I didn’t know who to cheer for in that finish. Hopefully it turns.

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