Members Daily Post: 14/12/17 (complete)

Cheltenham Trainer Notes / NOTES (x3) Section 1, test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

 

Taunton

2.10- Garo De Juilley (m2) H1 8/1 3rd 8/1 

3.15 – Coillte Las (m2) I1 8/1  UP 7/2 (10p-30p R4)

3.50 – Limon Cello (hncp hurdle) 16/1  S2 UP 12/1 

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Newcastle Abandoned 

Warwick Abandoned 

 

 

Bonus: Ireland

12.55 Tramore – Line View (all hncps) ES+ H3 9/2  S3A UP

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 3rd Dec)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (01/09/17-) (29/158, +116.4) (1 point win bets)

NOTES

2.10 T – Garo De Juilley 8/1  3rd – decent enough run,no complaints, has travelled well but not really picked up in the straight, has bumped into a couple, this could be his level, or hasn’t quite seen it out on this ground,up and down on spot a bit come the end. Looks a tricky one to place but could be ok form. Here’s Herby is worth keeping an eye on NTO. 

3.15 T-  Coillte Las  15/2  UP 7/2 nothing positive to say about that effort, it all fell apart as they exited the home straight, having jumped fine and been in a good spot with a circuit to go. Too far out to say it was the ground I think but who knows. She made a horlix of one fence down the back but she was paddling at the time. Maybe she is just out of form and not the sort to find excuses for, yet to repeat her hurdles form over fences. That was poor. Backing a horse at twice it’s SP the only glimmer of light there, they will start going in again at some point! 

3.50 T – Limon Cello 16/1 UP 12/1 … ah, should have stayed sat on the fence! I don’t mind taking a poke on this type at 16s, the two above maybe more foolhardy but easy to say now and the money has been loaned back- this one does’t want to be a racehorse.. it looked good for a little while, having got the lead, settled ok, and jumped fine… he then threw the toys out of the pram around halfway and that was that, downed tools. Clear to see there why they had tried him in headgear! 

 

Hmm. Well it promised to be a busy day for the old noggin as nearly every qualifier in section 1 was fairly lightly raced/unexposed/doing something different/a decent price. And that is the case with the three above, to my eyes at least. In truth I’m not as bullish as I could be, more on the fence for all three but given their prices I decided to get off it and play the lot, especially when the fence sitting was more to do with fearing the opposition. The ‘notes’ profit pile would be a fair bit smaller if I let such thoughts dominate my head too much, especially with horses that are 6/7s+ where I can afford to be wrong plenty of times. This is a ‘horse based/led’ approach that is meant to work without torturing myself too much over the other runners and riders. So…

Garo De Juilley – this is his 3rd handicap hurdle run and he comes here having run ok the last twice. He steps back up in trip by 3f and it’s his first run in handicaps beyond 16f. He takes a slight drop in class here (LTO was a C3 10k+, this one <£10k, to the winner) and returns to a track where he’s won before as a novice. He is a CD winner. He has a ratings pointer to boost some confidence (top rated HRB) and is no forlorn hope. The ground is a question with him but it’s an unknown. I simply have no idea if he will relish soft or hate it. I like the price, so I will bank on him relishing it! The sire doesn’t give much indication as while the best stats are on a sound surface, the heavy ground stats are fine. And he may well have inherited his mother’s genes. It’s an unknown for plenty of others also and there may be more good to soft around than good. Hopefully he is staying on at the end here. Harry C rides him for the first time and that boy can work wonders.  My main niggle was that there are 4 other really unexposed ones in this from C Williams, Tizzard (x2 1st / 2nd ) and Henderson. As yet none are being smashed off the boards though as you’d expect with such profiles. So we shall see. If one of these 5 doesn’t win this then clearly it’s not a field full of potential world beaters.

Coillte Las – Maybe Paul Nicholls is just giving members of his Racing Club a day out with these two runners at a local track, but this one would have a squeak also. I can see why Honeyball’s is fav but if you took him out/he unperformed/failed to build on last run, then this race looks wide open. This is his 3rd chase start and he could just improve with experience. He also drops 4f here which was more eye catching, as well as it being his first time going RH over fences. That may or may not make any difference, but it could be a reason for improvement. The horse struck into himself the last day. I’m not sure at which stage he did that but it would explain why he finished as he did. Clearly he has recovered given he comes back out 25 days later here. This one has some decent enough novice hurdle form to his name and was highly tried in that sphere, rated 140 at his peak. He does have ability at least and Nicholls will find the key over fences at some point. It could be today and he has a chance here. Another where if it’s properly testing or ‘sticky’ then we are into unknown territory. Both of these may hate soft+ and if Nicholls keeps running them could be very well handicapped come the spring.

Limon Cello –  a bit of a flyer and the market may well guide. I’d like to see him nibbled in from 16s. He is unexposed enough having had 4 handicap runs in his life, two over hurdles. He has been chasing the last twice and hasn’t done too much. Hope hinges on a return to hurdles being more to his liking. He drops in class from all recent runs which caught the eye as did the fact they remove all headgear today. There is a chance he has hated wearing it for his last three runs. Or he is just a monkey and they have yet to find the key.  The ground shouldn’t be a problem and he did run ok on his first handicap in March. 3 miles is an unknown. I wonder if he will truly see this out but again it is an unknown and he is unexposed over it, so may improve. Chester takes off 7lb  and he has a decent enough record on his Dad’s (? i think) handicap hurdlers. There are no confirmed front runners in this race either and he has raced handily before. It could be falsely run but it would be fun if they try and steal this from the front. He should be in the right spot. In any case there was enough there at the price for me to have a go in what looks an open race where everything has a question or five to answer. He is unexposed/returns to hurdles/drop in class/headgear off/7lb off back/returns to soft going … all reasons for why he may out-run these odds. Or he’s just moderate/out of love with the game at the moment. We’ll soon find out.

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So, an interesting day. I won’t be shocked if all three fail to spark and I will brace myself for the worst. But at the odds there are plenty of reasons for why all three could go close.

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3.Micro System Test Zone

TTP All Weather 

Chelmsford

6.45 –

Captain Scooby (all hncps) I1 20/1  S6  UP

Tasaaboq (m2) I3 13/2 2nd

7.15 – Calling Out (all hncps + 3yo+, +m1) 14 ES+ 12/1 S3A UP 14/1

8.45 –

Glendun (all hncps + m1) G3 10/1  3rd (15p R4)

Mullarkey (3yo+) I3 15/2  WON 15/2>9/2 (15p R4) 

 

Irish Angles

12.25 Tramore – Nancy Maher (25/1< guide) DNQ

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

‘The Magic Formula’: Article to follow Thursday

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Cheltenham December Meeting, ‘Big Meeting Notes‘: Read HERE>>>

I’ll also pull together some trends/stats/shortlists for various races over the 2 day meeting, yet to decide what as yet.

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

31 Responses

  1. Garo De Juilley Taunton Thursday 14:10 1pt e/w-Looks like a decent bet tomorrow. Has some smart novice form and has been running consistently well this season over distances way to short of optimum so its a plus they step him back up to 2m3f. Has a 1st and a 2nd from 3 visit to the track. Nicholls has a great record at the track as shown in Josh’s stats and has won the race twice in the past 11 years. All his best form in France was on very soft ground so its arguable he will improve on it. Winner from his last race won a class 2 easily off a 10lb higher mark and the 6th went close in a class 3. Try and get the 4 places if you can.

    1. That poor horse has a treble penalty of you, me and Sp2a – must admit I didn’t really look at his french form, but yet on the flat as a 3yo he seemed to relish it, over 1m4f. Odd that Nicholls has kept him to decent ground, but he could well sluice through it. GL

        1. Nope, no complaints there, win only for me. Has run his race, and looked threatening as they turned for home but flattened out a bit approaching first flight in home straight. Decent enough. If they keep running like that enough will go in. The eyes haven’t fully gone as yet! And he did have an extra stone on his back so can be marked up haha.

  2. Hey Josh, Late, I know, if Warwick is on I’m going as a corporate guest. If failing anything else to do you have time to have a look at the card I’d be most grateful. My brother who lives nearby says that there was lots of snow and its been raining so I think waterlogging is more of a danger than frost!
    Hugh

    1. crikey Martin, 237 on BFSP! Can’t say I had a penny on but would appear you did, nice start to the weekend, well done.. what was behind your hunch, there must have been something! 🙂 (even if SLJ is your favourite actor!)

      1. No I did not back it. The wife had £2 on but on my account so therefore the money is legally mine. I did say that but she went for the bread knife and so looks like I will have to cash out that one sharpish!

        1. (i was referring to Martin Whittle who posted the selection 🙂 unless that is you also, which would confuse matters haha… in any case, good on your wife, £2 more than I had!)

          1. Well done Martin W (very confusing). My wife recycled her £2 stake on Our Merlin, which although a short price won well. Anyway she has retired with a 100% record now.

        1. can’t complain there, knew there was some logic! You do yourself a disservice. I did look through race briefly, after the result- obviously! and most/all of the main contenders had questions over the going, so had potential to be open. You’ve done well finding him, can’t complain with that return for fun money. That’s a few pints/whiskeys/bottles of wine.

    2. Great shout Martin. I had an ew trixie on those two and Garo in the next – the second non-runner just scuppered a decent place payout. Fingers crossed for Garo de Juilley.

  3. With Taunton sorted lol…

    My pics for Chelmsford will be.
    7.15…Steel Train. 11/2
    7.45 Juan Horsepower. 7/1
    8.45 The Eagles Nest. 11/2.

    BOL all.

    Tony Mc.

  4. AW qualifiers for Chelmsford
    5.45 Bezos & Roseau City
    7.15 Mythical Madness
    8.45 The Eagles Nest & Glendum
    All 1pt win
    They should be 4/1 or above to qualify. They were when I placed my bets but one or two may have shortened this morning.
    Good luck

      1. Yep that crown is firmly on your head now Ken haha. Well done. That’s 3x 10/1 winners since you started posting?? No bad. You’re going to have to reveal the secrets soon… ! 🙂
        Josh

  5. Looking through the card this morning, I thought Richard Mitford-Slade – who he?
    Trains the winner of the 2nd race at 100/1 🙁

  6. Fantastic shout Ken…I was out and missed your choices today…. so never had nothing on…mine are still running i think lol.
    Well done mate/// Top stuff.

    Tony Mc.

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