Free Daily Post: 13/12/17 (complete)

nothing again today…

Another ‘day off’ with no jumps racing. With any luck it should liven up later in the week.



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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

4 Responses

  1. Is backing short price horses or sports always bad value?

    If a horse you think should be 1/3 is available at 4/7is that value
    or is it still a bet the bookies want to lay.

    Surely if you are taking a short price you want totally proved form
    against proven inferior opposition rather than a once raced maiden from a big yard

    Football seems to throw up lots of very short priced teams but the nature of the game
    inferior teams can put 11 men behind the ball and hold on for a draw or even nick a result.
    and in these type of sports backing a whole string of odds on shots may bring you plenty of winners
    but in the long term you may get hit with a lot of bad results.

    The margins between the 1/2 chance and the 10/1 is not as much as some people
    think when you are taking about a length over 2 miles the difference between the horses is so small
    one bit of bad luck or a sloppy jump can change the value

    Cricket seems to be offering value at the moment.
    England lack real pace and class spinners but have great seam bowlers
    so at home with conditions in their favour they are very strong
    but in India Pakistan Bangladesh and Sri Lanka were spin is king they get hammered
    because they haven’t got a class spinner and their batsmen don’t face class spinners in England
    and are outgunned

    In Australia the Aussie bowlers are on average 5 mph faster than Englands and that makes all the difference
    it is significant that England only bowled the Aussies out cheaply when the ball was swinging about under the lights

    In Perth the pitch is fast the weather is set fair and it could be argued that 8/15 the Aussies
    looks value

    There seems to be less and less draws in test cricket these days as 20/20 has seen batsmen
    going away from the Geoff Boycott type innings and playing a lot more shots with much looser techniques

    in fact I would advocate laying the draw in any test match where the weather forecast is reasonably positive.

    The only places that England can get a result away from home at the moment is possibly New Zealand or South Africa
    where the ball can move off the seam similar to England.

    England at home area different team but they are vulnerable if we have a really hot and dry summer
    because the ball will not move as much

    If it is cloudy and overcast back England at home every time

    1. The answer to your question re sports is of course not. You have to be able to set your own tissue and then bet where there is a significant difference. As a basic example if Arsenal were at home to Swansea what price would you take? I would say the bookies will go 2/11 but I would say it is more like 2/7, so not value.

      Re the Ashes I would say that if the weather holds for 5 days we will always get a result. Therefore check the weather forecast first. England, especially their batting seems in disarray and so what price would you take on the Aussies. I have put up an offer for 4/6 but they are currently trading at 4/7 to 1/2. I will see what is going on before bedtime and may take the 4/7? We are of course talking big stakes here as otherwise it is not worth it. There is an offer with BET365 I think where you get paid out as a winner if your selections leads by 100 runs + after first innings.

      Good luck.

      1. The Waca would be the highest scoring grounds in Australia at the moment
        and although it has been lighting fast much in the favour of the Aussie quicks.
        In three of the last 4 tests on the ground South Africa twice and New Zealand once
        have knocked up huge totals against the fastest bowlers Australia has to offer
        Taylor Scored 290 for New Zealand and several South Africans made big hundreds.

        The scores in the Sheffield shield this year back up the wicket isn’t as fast as it used to be and big scores are
        Dean knocked up a hundred against England is double quick time recently
        So I expect massive innings.
        The ball comes on nicely and I think the key could be Joe Root with the ball coming on he could
        go large I am backing him to score a 100 in the match.

        The toss could be vital Warner is mustard here and if he gets going against the
        England seamers who I think will be very in effective here he could cause mayhem.

        I think if the Aussies bat first they will go 500 plus

        1. Joe Root is learning how to be a captain at present and having Alastair Cook in the team likely makes it harder? I think he needs to get on top of that mentally before he is fully effective again with his batting. I would want 10/1+ on a Joe Root century.

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