Members Daily Post: 25/11/17 (complete)

NOTES x2 + Section 1, ‘big race’ stats/trends/shortlist, Test Zone

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

*

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

 

Huntingdon

2.15 – Compadre (m2) H3 G3 4/1   WON 4/1>11/4

 

Haydock

12.40 – Belmount (m1) 14,30 H3 I3 7/1   S5 Fell

1.50 –

Clyne (hncp hurdle) H3 I3 G3 10/3 S4   3rd 

El Terremoto (m1) 14,30 H3 10/1 S2 UP

2.25 –

Champers On Ice (all hncps + m1) 6/1 UP

Gayebury (hncp hurdle) I3 25/1 S2 S5 UP

Robbin’Hannon (m2) 25/1 S2 UP

3.35 – Ballymalin (m1+m1) 14,30 I3 8/1   UP

 

Ascot

3.15 –

Sire De Grugy (hncp chase) H3 I1 G3 7/2 S4    UP

San Benedeto (hncp chase) 14,30 H1 I3 3/1  UP

 

*

KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1/’Strategy 1′. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 19th Nov)

All Members’ Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info – all  HERE>>> (please flick through,esp if new) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

*

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (01/09/17-) (27/142, +118.5) (1 point win bets)

NOTES

2.25 Haydock – Le Rocher – 9/1 UP

3.35 Haydock – Ballymalin – 8/1 UP

 

Le Rocher… UP – poor… well this is my subjective ‘tipping’ section of the members’ posts and I thought I would extend my gaze beyond just section 1, to all members’ content… and at the prices I do really like this one’s chances. In any case I can’t leave him at 9s. I am backing him so I may as well ‘tip’ him. He ticks plenty of the stats/trends, is lightly raced for his age, and steps up to a new trip. It could unlock more, he may not stay. I’ll roll the dice at the price. Nick Williams has won this race twice in recent years and the horse ran with credit (behind Clyne) at this meeting last year. It would be good if Clyne could run well in the 1.50. The horse seems to relish the mud and he ticked enough boxes for me to wade in. I’d be mildly surprised if he is outside the top 4, so if you prefer EW you have that option.

Ballymalin… PU- clear after 3 fences that was game over, always annoying… left Chase the Spud…ahh. A day of rubbish decisions. Moving on I will be ‘tipping’ in this race on the free post and this horse will be one of them. But, he appears in section 1 and ticks the boxes for a’notes’ horse also. I suspect I’ll be adding one more to him (i keep looking at Chase the Spud, possibly, possibly not) but this one ticks plenty of boxes. I have some stats/trends as a guide and he fits that profile. He is unexposed over fences, in the ‘could be anything’ camp. He is a very consistent horse who has run well at the Festival before. He rarely runs a bad race. This is his first handicap chase and his first in the mud. Novice form can be deceptive but his two NHF runs were in the slop and throughout his career to date he has run like a stayer in the making. He will also race prominently and could even lead. If you have a horse that keeps going it can be so hard to come from behind here when it’s testing. It all may prove too much for him and it may transpire that he doesn’t handle ‘haydock heavy’. But given his profile, 8s looked worth a go. NTD continues in red hot form also.

*

Others… of the rest… well I like both in the 1.50 and they should run their race. Twister’s has been hammered by the handicapper but as yet he hasn’t proved he can’t win from it, and its’s the only question he has. He looks like one of the better S2 qualifiers in recent days/weeks. Clyne could take this. The old boy Sire De Grugy may help add to the S4 haul…he qualified on here last year for this race, and was a decent price in the morning…12s maybe from memory, unless I’m making that up. I’d fear younger legs in that but maybe 7/2 is fair enough. Interesting that Jamie Moore is at Ascot and not taking the ride in the big one at Haydock. I think that says a lot.

The 2.25 – well I have Le Rocher… I was hoping Champers on Ice may be 8s+, 6s isn’t tempting me in as yet. There are two biggies in that, from Section 1, and who both appear in the stats… on paper, with my head, I think there are questions and the stats would suggest going off north of 20s isn’t a good sign. But, those are only ever a guide and such stats there to be broken. I’d be surprised if I don’t throw 5s at the pair BFSP or something, nearer the race. With a fair bit more on Le Rocher, maybe!

 

*

Re-cap… I can’t work out if i’m annoyed at not ‘tipping’ the McCain winner or not. I took the decision that 7s wasn’t generous enough given the questions. Clearly in hindsight it was plenty big enough! But, that’s the kind of error I will make again, just have to ensure not too often. My approach to judging price is more art than science. You won’t catch me boring myself to tears by compiling my own ’tissue’, but then I have no ambition to be a pro punter. Albeit even that comes down to subjective judgement. So, i’ll take the positives… he did have that unexposed profile (second run in chases, not many career runs), what was he doing different? He was moving up in trip and down in class. Why should we forgive his recent form? Well the 80 day break looked interesting and given he was weakening late/worse tongue ties plenty, you could ‘guess’ that maybe they had done something to him. Or he had just strengthened up/a change in training regime. It could be any number of things. So, pleased to see a horse with that profile win, at what turned out to be a nice price. I’ll nab the next one.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Paddy Watch

3.35 Hayd – Chase The Spud (14/1< guide) WON 8/1>6/1 

 

TTP All-Weather

Lingfield

2.00 –

Lady Perignon (m1) ES H1 I3  11/1 S2 S3 S6 UP

Dealer’s Choice (m1) 14,30  12/1 UP

 

Wolverhampton.. I’ve run out of time/yet to research profile. I’ll complete Kempton/Wolvs/Dundalk early next week.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

Big Race Stats/Trends/Shortlist

2.25 Haydock: Stayers Hurdle (what was the fixed brush,but they have disposed of them)

Some caution given they use regular hurdles now I believe which could make any profile irrelevant. But…

  • Top 10 in the weights (11th or lower, 0/59,9p)
  • Places at least once on last 3 starts (0/26,2p had not)
  • 0-2 hncp hurdle wins (3+, 0/25,4p) 

 

Shortlist: well, this doesn’t really help… it leaves 8… numbers… 2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9 … if that profile holds up you could use that list as a starting point. I couldn’t narrow it down any further using my preferred approach. And I won’t find stats to knock horses out for the sake of it. 

 

Looking through those that have form on Heavy would leave you with: Gayebury / Champers On Ice / Robbin’hannon / Le Rocher 

  • 7/10 had won over a max 2m3-2m5f… from the ‘shortlist’ of 8, only Le Rocher ticks that box
  • 10/10 were 20/1 or shorter SP (0/59,4p bigger) 
  • 5/10 aged 5 (5/25,12p, +16) 
  • TRAINERS: Pipe (3 wins ) Nick Williams (2 wins) Skelton/Hobbs (1 each) 

 

Given the trainer stats my initial leanings (with more ‘form’ study required on my part) would point to: Champers On Ice and Le Rocher 

I suspect I will have something on those and ponder the rest. It is a competitive race as you would expect and that ‘winning profile’ isn’t the strongest, so that list of 8 may not include the winner! And given I did my best to talk you out of Hendo’s winner on Friday, best take any of my subjective thoughts with a pinch of salt! 

 

*

Share on facebook
Facebook
Share on twitter
Twitter
Share on pinterest
Pinterest
Share on linkedin
LinkedIn
Share on telegram
Telegram

Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

29 Responses

  1. 225H Money for Zarkander has thwarted my attempt to get a big price on BF.
    CD form and fresh are the factors for the horse; trainer/jockey riding high presently too.

      1. Re Champers On Ice, he may just be more progressive than the others and so the 13/2 may be big? I did hear a word for Sam Spinner earlier in the week but no price drop yet.

        In the 1.15 HP Seldom Inn off a break of 90 days + is 11211!

  2. In the last race at Haydock anyone else feel that Cloudy Too has an each way chance. I live a couple of miles from Haydock and the weather has been dreadful. Come the last race it will ride like a bog. Cloudy Too is 4/2/6 on heavy and 2/3/7 at Haydock and Sue Smith chasers are always worth looking keeping an eye on at Haydock.
    John Welsh.

    1. I have had a look at the Cloudy Too profile
      Galloping, SlightlyGalloping tracks
      Soft or Heavy ground
      12 runners or less
      D Cook , Mr J England or 2 other jockeys
      1111121316

        1. I’d be surprised if he has the legs for this, he just looks out of form/regressive to my eyes.. so many unexposed chasers in this i’d like to think one of them takes it, but I could be very wrong! GL if you’ve dabbled on him, maybe he will grind them into the ground!

          1. You might be right Josh but barring Baywing who has a massive weight I am not sure how many of these really will relish this like he will.

          2. Yep, provided that is the reason he bounces back into form..plenty of decent runs on better going which would indicate his last two runs have just been awful…maybe there are excuses and this has been the plan…if he is just regressive/out of form, it won’t matter what the ground is imo. But you get a decent price to find out. Clearly setting myself up to drown in egg! 🙂

          3. Not the first time I have a seemingly out of form potentially over the hill but on a nice weight and proven in conditions one versus your unexposed one. Sure it won’t be the last 😉

    2. Ah well he is just a good plodder and Paddy made the right move tactifully,its one up for “Paddy Watch”,i’m almost certain i have seen that caption somewhere before

        1. Well got the place up, more by default than anything. Probably right Josh he is regressive. After mentioning Sue Smith chasers I failed to have anything on Hainan.

          1. He ran with credit John, stayed on again…maybe that level is too hot for him now but you could see making all in a heavy veterans chase say… he ran better than I thought he would, he was going forward come the line, staying on at the one pace, but wasn’t going backwards.
            Yep, Hainan was painful, was clear pre race would get easy lead…think again I have put too much emphasis on the PU lto.
            That is two winners across the blog that hit some micro systems/angle or other, and i have left for tipping purposes/not considered fully! One of those annoying days. Frustrating. On we go.

  3. 15.15 Ascot SIRE DE GRUGY
    Slightly Undulating/Undulating tracks, 11 runners or less
    10 wins from 15 starts
    Only Class 2 and below – 211111

    The horse had a pipe opener over hurdles last time out and does go well at this track (121). Hopefully he can run well again in a race he won last season.

  4. Chase The Spud 3.35H just has to be backed in the prevailing conditions,he is just a slow plodder but if he is ready to fire the 3m on heavy will be just what he needs,he hasn’t had many races and might be getting better with age.There wont be many opportunities unless we have a wet winter,will pick up a nice prize somewhere,if not today

    1. Well done Gerry, a day of wrong decisions by me, awful scenes… shortlist of 3 and I left him out, for tipping purposes. Muddled thinking…proven galloper, hardy, stays further, ground like glue, solid jumper… brilliant! Hope you got stuck in.

      1. Just really ran his race and Paddy made right decision to take the lead,horse has no tactical speed but once stamina counted the others were found wanting

  5. I guess heavy at HP is proper heavy and so that is a big factor not only in regard to horses but size of bet. I am on Josh’s selections for the 3.35 and am dutching Champers On Ice and Sam Spinner in the 2.25.

    I am also on Defi De Seiul at evens BOG in the 2.40 Ascot. If he progresses form his Triumph hurdle + form he has to beat these. I am presuming he is fit to go.

    Good luck. I am off the Craven Cottage to watch Millwall try to win away for the first time since May!

  6. H.1.50 im more than happy to take the 4/1 bf as we speak … Clyne , loves the ground , best form in the race , Christmas come early ?? 🙂

  7. Haydock is like glue…went for some spuds off one of the local farms….Lovely black soil….but made sure the soil was off the spud before it was weighed…minge bag…lol.
    So no top of the surface picks today…and we’ve just had hail too.
    Your right Josh…sofa day and good stiff rum with whiskey.

    Tony Mc.

  8. Given how they’ve been running this week you probably want to avoid these like the plague but this is what I am on:

    Cloudy Too Haydock 15:35 1pt e/w
    Carnspindle Ascot 13:30 1pt e/w
    Gayebury Haydock 14:25 0.75pt e/w (make sure you get 5+ places)

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.