Free Daily Post: 24/11/17 (complete/tip)

Tip + micro

TIPS

3.25 Ffos Las – Magical Man – 1 point win – 15/2 (gen) WON 8/1 

(2017 Total: 18/160, +106.5 points) 

I must be craving some 3m+ chase action as I have dipped into a Ffos Las C5 here. I’ll probably get what I deserve but I thought 15/2, 8/1 in places, was a bit harsh as to this ones chance. Yes he is 10 but he is fairly lightly raced (for his age,in handicap chases) he usually runs well on his second start after a break, and when on song he front runs. I think he should be able to lead here although a chance the Rees outsider pesters him. Hopefully not. With any luck Bellamy is aggressive and plays catch me if you can. He returned the last day in a claiming chase, up against horses rated 120+. He had no chance and ran as well as could be expected. That may have put him spot on for this. He drops back into a C5 here and has won over 3m+ at Towcester in heavy. So, I’m confident he will still be going at the end. A few of these may not be. The headgear that he has worn for so long is left off again. It could be he can’t perform without it but he has never run in a handicap chase without headgear so i’m guessing. He may enjoy the experience. On paper I think he should be second fav in this, a few points shorter. Maybe his market uneasiness tells me all I need to know, but i’ll play.

The dangers…well it is all about the fav really. He may well bolt up again but he is usually held up out the back and has to prove his stamina in this ground, over fences. And he didn’t beat much the last day although it was a C4. He may follow up but I’d never have a bet if I was scared of every fav I lined up against. He does have the odd small question, so i’m happy to take him on.

Pace… MM is the only consistent front runner in this albeit he has been held up and never been put into races before. If that is the case here, given the lead is his if he wants it, i’ll know today isn’t the day. He ‘should’ give me a run for my money, at least until the fav breezes past over the second last!

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I had a look at the 3.15 Ascot but it is competitive and nothing jumped out at me at prices. Marcilhac hits the Venetia angle below and one of my strategies in the Members’ Club. I see no reason why he shouldn’t run his race. Tizzards may have a squeak, the George horse may make all, and if the ground is actually GS (and not soft/a tacky mess) then Charlie Longsdon’s may bounce back.(he was 18s and hits one of my Members’ strategies also, would be welcome if he bolted up!)  Antony isn’t discounted either but is short enough. So, an open race, and one that I was happy to dodge for tipping purposes.

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MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

V Williams (16/1< (is she about to burst into life..?)

3.15 Ascot – Marcilhac

Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live Test

1.50 Cat – Delusionsofgrandeur

2.50 Ffos L – On The Road

3.15 Asc – Antony

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

6 Responses

    1. Hmm… well she has run on heavy once, over 20f, and ran well enough/not beaten far. I like to see a win or two on heavy ideally .. whether she will cope with it over fence, and a marathon trip, we shall see. In these conditions, when the mud is flying, I prefer to go with proven stamina/chase hardiness, and less inclined to adopt my ‘unexposed/doing something different’ approach… but those two reasons are why she could improve. She was awful LTO, even if needing it… and i’d be surprised if Rees is running her with a chance of beating their shorty fav, but who knows. Dangerous to second guess trainers and if you like her/the price, you have to go for it! GL. Maybe both his will fight it out.

    1. You can say that again, I thought he would be more aggressive so got that wrong..but he has gone a pace horse was comfortable with and importantly what has got him home.. in truth as they turned in I thought he would do it easier than that! Pleased that he responded for pressure as he is laden with stamina, just gets up in time. Would have been agonising if not. The second has run a cracker for Chris above, stayed fine, but just out-stayed in the end. Good performance from front two. I’ll take that.

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