Free Daily Post: 18/11/17 (complete/tips)

TIPS

(2017 Total: 17/158, +99.5 points) 

My over confidence got the slap in the face it deserved on Friday. That will learn’ya as my grandad would say. I’m happy enough with how I read the race and the winner was in my ‘shortlist’ of 5. I was happy leaving him at his morning price. I have pondered whether I could have got in a position to back him at 6s, but I didn’t. If only he was 11s in the morning, i’d have been disappointed with myself if I didn’t recommend at least 1/2 a point at those odds- in line with the write up I gave him. Never mind. A line under that race and we move on.

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1.50 Cheltenham

Doing Fine – 2 points win – 9/2 (gen)

Vicente – 1 point win – 8/1 (gen) 2nd 9/2 (15p R4)

Ahh.. no complaints there, a superb race.. another Nicholl’s horse who you would have assumed preferred good, but had yet to prove they wouldn’t handle soft I don’t think. Were it confirmed soft when I looked I’m not sure I’d have have gone for him! So, there we go. Great race and great ride on the winner. 

 

Doing Fine.. I think I have gone full circle on him, or maybe I have gone from being a bit on the fence to deciding he is the one they all have to beat! He entered the ‘notebook’ on both his first and second runs this season, running as if they have had a target in mind… I am banking on it being this race. He has the ability to take this.. at first I was put off by his record in higher classes but most of his duff runs were when trained by Rebecca Curtis. He has rarely run a bad race for Mulholland. He stays, he has form at the track and the ground is no problem. And he arrives here fit and well, going forward at the line LTO in a way that suggests he should run his race here. He will appreciate the trip and he has won in smaller fields. Hopefully he doesn’t get too far back and they go a pace he can cope with. He is a sound jumper on his day. Having looked and pondered, and having considered the chances of the rest (in the context of their price) I concluded he was the one. Having tracked him/highlighted him this season, i’d be annoyed with myself if I wasn’t on when he bolted up…more so than losing 2 point on him if he doesn’t. This is a smaller field and I do have to adjust my own price prejudice. This isn’t a 12/14/16+ runner race where I would normally look to take on most under 6s.

Vicente... I just couldn’t resist at that price and it allows me to play with the obvious niggle that he may need the run. Nicholls/Hemmings may have national/Scottish National targets in mind and the whole season will be geared towards that. In his Betfair column he suggests he may need a run or two. BUT, he has said that numerous times, with good intentions, and got it wrong. I’m sure he underestimates his own ability to get them fit sometimes! From memory there have been a few decent priced Saturday winners that have gone in that he thought ‘needed the run’ and he has told the owners as such. The horse has a decent profile fresh, so can be readied if they want. He has decent form around here, has the class, and he stays very well. I also pondered whether a few in this may fall in a hole and he actually wouldn’t need to be a1. We shall see. But at 8s, I wanted to throw 1 point at him.

Of the rest…

Three Faces West may lead these all a merry dance. At 9/2 I was happy to leave, mainly due to the absence. Now Hobbs can ready them but I have also been swayed by the fact that the horse doesn’t have a winning profile fresh. He hasn’t had many goes but when playing at this price I would like to see a win after a break. If Dickie can dictate on the front (there is every chance) then that may help him get home. But he does also have stamina to prove and this is a career high mark. That is fine, because he is unexposed, but then it comes down to price. Under 6s, given the fitness niggle, is short enough I think. You may think 9/2 is fair and I won’t be in shock if he makes all. I will be able to live with it, just!

Minella Rocco- his presence gives a lopsided look to this handicap, given his rating of 166… he may need a Denman like performance from this rating/weight to win this, and I don’t think he is a Denman! His handicap mark has swayed me to leave him, given he is 5/1. Were he a bigger price he may be of more interest but backing a Jonjo horse at such skinny odds can leave you red faced. A repeat of that Gold Cup run would put him in the mix and he is fit. I just thought something with more in hand/less on their back, may scoot away up that hill. All credit to him if he does carry this to victory. In this race last year (which was 17 runners, a rare small field this year) he came third of a mark of 155. He races off 166 here. It is a tough ask, and 5s just felt short in that context. He may well out-class them all though, we shall see.

I was struggling to be enthusiastic about much else. Premier Bond needs to step forward on previous form but is unexposed. There is a fitness question and Hendo doesn’t have the best record in handicaps at this meeting or in staying races. But, he can clearly train them to win these races and the horse looks a stayer. Again, it comes down to price. He has fitness, stamina and ability to prove. Which he may well do, but at 11/2 I could leave him.

I would be mildly surprised if the other 4 are good enough to win this. I can’t have them personally.

So, those two will do. An intriguing little contest and I wouldn’t mind pushing through that 100 point mark and fixing my eyes on the next target. I keep hovering. Hopefully one of these two can help.

GL with any bets.

That’s the lot for today.

 

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MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

V Williams (16/1<)

2.25 Chelt – Plaisir Damour

Sat Trainer/Jockey Combo

1.50 Chelt – Three Faces West

 

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About This Author

<p>Hi, I’m Josh and thanks for reading my blog, Racing To Profit. Hopefully you like what you find. This is a place for horse racing fans of all levels and ability, bettors and non bettors. Here I, and fellow readers, share our opinions on horses and information that may help you find your own winners. Do say hi, we are a friendly bunch… and if you could use the ‘share buttons’ above that would also be appreciated :)</p>

22 Comments

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  • ITV races
    day 2
    1-50. Three faces west 7-2 should be the one to beat if fit enough on his season reappearance Doing Fine 5-1 could be the main danger.
    2-25.Kylemore Lough and Le Prezien both have good chances but i’m going to go for Starchitect 8-1 won convincingly on season debut and could defy 4lb penalty, Guitar Pete could run into a place at a bigger price.
    3-00. Thomas Campbell 6-4 fav must be respected but a bit short for me so a small ew on Dell’ Arca 7-1 might be the way to go.
    3-30. Quarenta 25-1 drops back in distance after a poor run over 3 miles lto and should do a lot better today.
    also on ITV
    Lingfield
    2-45. Ayrad 5-1 is a class act but has yet to prove it on the aw also trip might be a bit short but nothing else stands out.
    3-15. Gifted Master 7-1 a bit disappointing lto but won a listed race on his penultimate start over this trip and looks a real threat on ratings.
    gl all if your having a punt.

    martin whittle 4 weeks ago Reply


  • When I look at Vicente I see a spring horse. He is suited by this distance but I think this is a run to get a better handicap mark for the races in 2018, even the National?

    I am surprised Romain De Senam is drifting in the markets early. Although he has a bad age profile for this race, he is improving and Nicholls speaks highly of him. I can see him winning the race or finding it all a bit much. We shall see?

    I like Poker Play in the 3.30 and am on at 12/1 BOG. He seems unexposed a bit and Pipe has hit form.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 4 weeks ago Reply


  • Hi Martin… Vicente… well he is 2/7,3p in October/November in his career… so he isn’t a spring horse in the sense of that is the only time of year he comes alive, as an animal. He looks more a spring horse these days as they may well have just targeted him for the spring…and he also doesn’t want it too soft, so natural he may do best in Spring. If race fit he would go very close to winning today, I have simply rolled the dice at 8s that he may be fit enough. He probably won’t but happy to take the chance.

    RDS looks to have a solid chance albeit I fancy his other one, but hard to read. He can’t split them according to his Betfair column.

    Poker Play … 4 year olds have a shocking (no win) record in that race in the last 20 years, but such stats are to be broken, and I won’t be talking anyone out of a Pipe horse given their form!

    GL

    Josh 4 weeks ago Reply


  • I think Vicente prefers the spring but has form this time time of year. I was expecting more money for Poker Play, only in to 91 from 12’s. Maybe it will come?

    At Lingfield I thought that Clem Fandango and 20/1 on the exchanges looked generous, 3.15.

    martin colwell 4 weeks ago Reply


  • KK Lexion in the 15:00 and Cheltenham and Smooth Stepper at 14:00 Uttoxeter look like solid bets today.

    Nick Mazur 4 weeks ago Reply


    • Didn’t anticipate it going soft at Chelts!! Albeit I think that poses questions for most of main contenders in 1.50. (Three Faces will relish it but will tax fitness/stamina more) Maybe it well help them get through it better. We shall see!

      Josh 4 weeks ago Reply


      • Looks like we won’t as he’s just been taken out. Sort of hoping they take out Vicente also.

        Nick Mazur 4 weeks ago Reply


        • yep I assume due to ground, clearly right call if they think he will struggle in it! Yep, i suspect if Vincente lines up it proves the point that he is here for the run, so that will be 1 point loaned back to the bookies. I won’t be backing anything else now I don’t think.

          Interesting that Three Faces hasn’t moved in the market after his withdrawal, been fairly weak all day… albeit as we saw with Pipes that can mean sod all!

          Josh 4 weeks ago Reply


          • The more I look at the race to more I think just about everything has questions and it looks a pretty sub standard renewal and whilst you wouldn’t think Perfect Candidate is good enough to win a normal renewal he might just need to run just OK to take this.

            Nick Mazur 4 weeks ago Reply


            • yep, that’s not a bad shout. The smaller field nature which is odd for this race, and now the ground, makes it more open. Not a bad shout that.

              Josh 4 weeks ago Reply


              • Ahhh! haha, that was exciting, good shout, paid for my Vicente bet… thought he would get up there! Damn. Great race.

                Josh 4 weeks ago Reply


                • Takes a page out of your line of thinking in 3m+ soft ground chases. If everything is spot on the handicap mark is considerably less important.

                  Nick Mazur 4 weeks ago Reply


              • Just LOL. Really good ride by Paddy there.

                Nick Mazur 4 weeks ago Reply


                • Indeed it is, jumping, stamina, handling conditions, is far more important than handicap marks in races like that, all in context of price of course. Paddy’s ride has won that.. he was so aggressive, so early on…and that has won it. He get’s outstayed if allows Vicente to get closer and jump at slower pace I think. Very good. I’d have preferred it the other way but Jenny’s Surprise for S1 has lifted the mood, 14.5 BFSP. Second in that as well.

                  Josh 4 weeks ago Reply


                  • Cracking 30 mins. Had £20 E/W at 22/1 on that Lingfield winner as well.

                    Nick Mazur 4 weeks ago Reply


                    • You’re meant to tip those!! haha. Well done.

                      Josh 4 weeks ago


  • My E/W lucky 15 today,
    Uttoxeter 2.00 Jenny’s Surprise, jumped off the page at me and Josh has it in one of his list’s.
    2.35 Outrageous Romana, best race it’s every run last time so perhaps this training has sorted out whatever the others couldn’t, the 2nd in it’s last race has come out and won, good jockey booking. price has halved since I backed it last night.
    Cheltenham, 2.25 Kylemore Lough, I have always liked this horse, change of stable could produce a bit more which I thing will be needed in this hot race.
    Cheltenham, 3.30 Robin The Raven, I like speed ratings, on one set I look at he is in the top 4 the other not so good,of those in the top 4 he was the best priced, he is very lightly raced.

    Good Luck everyone.

    Greg Phillips 4 weeks ago Reply


    • Good stuff Greg, Jenny’s his strategy 1 thanks to being 14.5 BFSP, so i’ll take that! Well done, you’ve used the info well there, pleased it jumped off the page to your eyes, that’s what it’s about.

      Josh 4 weeks ago Reply


      • Not a bad return with the 2 winners and non-runner, since joining the site it has helped me look at things in more ways than I did before.
        My strategy is to find what I think is value at odds of over 5/1 and try to find horses that will place, sounds easy but as the educated on here will know it’s never easy trying to read form, stats and then what a trainer might be doing, but I love the challenge with the limited time I have, as I say to the missus it keeps me out of the pub, the fridge is cheaper and nearer.
        Thanks Josh.

        Greg Phillips 4 weeks ago Reply


  • Managed to get out of the day quite well with the enhanced place odds Ian pointed out this morning with a few bookies, Starchitect (unlucky) 2nd and Romain de Senam 5th in big race, could never have seen Splash of ginge winning that but great ride.

    Nice postcript too from them in tips mail this morning with Perfect Candidate rightly pointed this may be his day, saved my day really and great from Paddy O’B. I had the forecast with vicente so thanks again Ian and Josh; dynamic duo

    Hard to understand how quickly ground turned, interesting now tomorrow.

    Colin 4 weeks ago Reply


  • Just got in and yet to fully watch today’s races but told Starchitect a bit unlucky.

    However, I think the each way bet of the year after the rain has to be THE NEW ONE in The Greatwood,
    Sky offering 14/1 odds to SIXTH place, you know it is going to go to the front; and say; “come and have a go if you’re hard enough” IF ST-D was on, would be happier but Dickie will know the score. The weight does not bother me as used to carrying big weight in Championship races, it won’t know others have less weight will just run its normal race. The heavy Going will catch out a lot with less experience and I think Sky are just giving everyone a Free Bet on those terms!

    ian@sp2a 4 weeks ago Reply


    • Spot on Ian 14/1 to 6 places ew may look very big tomorrow!

      dougandnicky 4 weeks ago Reply


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