Members Daily Post: 30/10/17 (complete)

NOTES x2, Section 1,+ results summary

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Redcar

12.00 –

Aljady (2yo) ES 14/1  S3    WON 14/1>8/1 

Mayalee (2yo) ES 20/1 S3 UP

Spanish Mane (2yo) ES 14/1 S3 UP 

3.25 – Rapid Ranger (micro going)  H3 G3 

 

Leicester

1.20 – Noble Gift (3yo) I3  11/1 3rd 25/1 

1.55 – Home Cummins (all hncps) H3 G3 7/1 S5 UP

4.10- No Refund (all hncps) 25/1 UP 50/1

 

JUMPS

Ayr

2.40 – Buffalo Ballet (nov hncps) I1 12/1  S2  2nd 14/1 

3.15 – Poetic Presence (all hncps + hncp hurdle) I3 40/1 UP 8/1

3.50- Craiganboy (m1) ES+I3 G1 9/1  S3A   UP 

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +  :  Minimum 10 winners, 25% or bigger win strike rate (angles in link above)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated 22nd Oct)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated 22nd Oct)

Test Zone:  | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>> C Appleby/York Ebor: Read HERE>>> |NTD Sept/Oct: Read HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Email/Note: READ HERE>>>   Welcome VIDEO: Watch HERE>>> (long!) Brief’ Welcome Intro: Watch HERE>>>

Main Stats Guides (used for section 1 quals) : Summer Stats: Read HERE>>> | JUMPS 2017/18: Read HERE>>>>

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : Bet of The Day…  (Flat: 7/77,28p, -8.1) (Jumps: 9/66, +23.5) (total: 17/150, +15.6)  ‘NOTES’  (01/09/17-) (24/114, +122.5)

NOTES

Noble Gift3rd 25/1 well at 12/1 I will have a dabble on this one… he won this race in 2015 and appeared again in it last year, without doing much. He is now below his last winning mark and is the only horse in this where that is the case…everything else therefore has to do something different in that sense, prove they can win from a higher mark than they have before…albeit I haven’t dived into effect of claims and clearly the odd one may be unexposed enough anyway…but it is some sort of positive for his chance. All race conditions are fine. In flat turf handicaps he is 1/3,2p at the track,3/7 over 1m4f and 3/7 in C2 <20k to winner. He tends to run his best at the start of the season and at the end, without much in the middle. I would like to think this has been a plan since his last run. The final crucial piece of the jigsaw was that he is an habitual front runner – the only one in the race. He should get an easy lead if he wants it, or of course something changes tactics..but anything that tries to take him on will ruin their own chance I suspect. So, he has plenty in his favour at the odds. He has a ratings pointer to boost confidence to a point. It could be he is just ‘out of form’ but I won’t give myself a headache with such things, the price allows a dart. (for those of you who ‘back to lay’ – I would be surprised if after 1f-2f his price isn’t a fair bit shorter than 12s, but we shall see)

No RefundUP 50/1 come 4.15 we may all well be wanting a refund but at his odds, and what may be a tasty price on the machine, I couldn’t resist a nibble… am I mad? probably… BUT, of interest…firstly this trainer won this very race last year with a 50/1 shot. Interesting. He used to train this horse and it is now back in his care. He is 1/4,2p over course and distance and is fairly lightly raced for his age. Smith has readied the odd horse after long breaks before,and that is built into the price. The horse is also 2/3 in October. Now, he could just be gone at the game. He probably is. What with the jockey’s claim he is on his last winning mark. This could be the jockey’s first every ride possibly…so who knows. But it is a weak enough race and stranger things have happened. Were he to win he is the type of horse I would look at post race and go ‘bugger,yep, a case could have been made…at the odds’. I don’t wish to do that for a second time in the last few days. Worth some change to find out.

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That’s all on that front.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

none.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Results Update: Advised Strategies… summary… (22nd-29th)

 

FLAT

  • All Quals backed every time they hit a strategy:  0/10,0p, -10
  • All Quals backed just once, when hitting at least one strategy: 0/6,0p, -6

JUMPS

  • All Quals backed every time they hit a strategy:  5/43,15p, +12.25
  • All Quals backed just once, when hitting at least one strategy: 4/33,12p, +17.25

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

33 Responses

  1. Question for Betfair aficionado’s… is there way to setup a bet to be matched in running prior to the off? (provided someone wants to take the price IR obviously). Playing with the idea of trying to get bigger odds in running on hold up horses, but want to set this up in advance, but not sure if betfair scrubs the market of unmatched bets at the off and you can only bet in running in running – anyone know?

    1. You can keep the odds in running. So you ask for the oprice and the option shows what to do at the off – cancel, take SP or keep. Tick the box and away you go.

      Good luck

      Jim

    2. When you place a bet that is unmatched, you are offered three options ‘at in play’:
      Cancel
      Keep
      Take SP
      Taking the middle one, means you retain the chance to have the larger odds you seek matched during the race.

    3. Once you’ve placed your unmatched bet you can change its status at any time prior to the off. Click on the unmatched bet to update it and you will see three options:

      At In-Play: Cancel Keep Take SP

      Take option to Keep and click Update Bet.

  2. Hi James P

    You can certainly take a price in running. Once inside any race online ‘Bertfair Exchange’ – select your horse where it gives the price….it will then appear to the right at the odds it is at that moment. Then all you have got to do is type in the price of the odds you wish to get matched at and hit confirm – then highlight ‘KEEP’ in running. Or use Trading software I use ‘Geeks Toy’ but you should be fine doing it this way. Hope this helps

  3. Got it, thanks both 🙂

    The reason i asked is because Craiganboy look an ideal candidate. If you look at the race summary of his runs, pretty much all say ‘in rear’. Including his win here at Ayr. Think an in play option for these types is best and will maximise returns, if you can get matched at the right point of course! The risk is it wins and you don’t get matched. Think i’ll set 2 points, 1 at 30s and 1 at 100s. If anyone has any experience here i’d love to hear some advice.

    1. I’d tend to be careful with this, although at one point a go (depending on the size of your point) it may pay off over time. Ideally before going in you’d want some historical stats (or personal experience) showing the percentage of hold up runners who come from the back to win, after having traded within different odds ranges, and possibly balanced against different field sizes.

      Think you need to be watching the race to attempt in-running. You need to see how it’s unfolding, how your runner is travelling in relation to those in front. The problem is he could make a real howler, get left 20 lengths, go straight out to 500, you’re matched,and your cash is (probably) done.

      But if the leaders are going fast, one or two are tickling the birch, and yours is sitting 15 lengths down but jumping cleanly and going well at his own pace, then it may be worth a go.

      Re Craiganboy. You’ll be able to get some idea of trainers view on fitness level some time later today on his website. The horse has an eyecatching piece of form with oldgrangewood for previous trainer which suggests he’s no slouch.

      But after the 2 and a quarter chase he won (steady pace, Virnon also made mistakes) the trainer said ‘suited by longer distance’. Back to 2 here, you might ask why? Nothing else suitable? First run of season to blow away the cobwebs?

      Hope it goes well if you play….but might be good to watch this with a future flat track, 2m2f plus handicap on heavy ground in mind.

      1. Thanks for the detailed reply Steve, some sensible suggestions there. Unfortunately with 2 kids in the house its difficult to watch every race, so thats why I’m attempting to target those with a hold up style pre race. I guess if you bet outright you lose your money anyway if it sits too far back and loses all chance, so if it is too far out and is matched then you get the same result! Definitely some merit analysing races of the distance at the track to see if hold up type horses do well versus those that try and make all.

        re Craiganboy i suspect your right and this could be a run to blow away the cobwebs. You mention the trainer will advise pre race – is that on twitter or somewhere else?

        1. On his website…

          ….and the quote is ”he also won round here last season and whilst I expect him to improve over further in due course this is a nice race to start out in”

          that kind of upholds what we might be thinking…a bit further on heavy ground some time in the next 2 months may be the best time to go for it. You could also interpret it as ”I have him ready and he can win this one because he’s better than these, and then win again later”

          Spot on you’re right…if you’re going to back it anyway then there’s an argument you may as well try and maximise the return. The converse argument is if you fancy it then it’ll hopefully be showing enough in the race that you won’t get matched ..and you miss out on a winner!

          But there’s something to be said for trying this out where you can’t necessarily get to watch. In this case, if it was further than two miles I think there would be 2 of us hoping for the same race set up! GL if you do play today.
          Let’s catch up again in a couple of months with some experienced views on whether enough of this type pull it off to make it all worthwhile.

          FYI have a look at the 4.10 Leic..Gatillo came from the back last time and the yard will very likely try the same again.

    1. Hi James, yep … he has that symbol next to his name?… And an S3A just to make sure. NA 10/41,19p in C4 handicaps (hurdles+chase) here since start 2014. (non novice hncps that is – Bufffalo B in a C4 also for interest, but that is a novice handicap and the micro angles etc don’t include those)
      Josh

  4. ok, i cant see that on the link Jumps 17-18 Elite Squad, there is nothing for Ayr. I might get a coffee and look again, but ii dont think im going mad

    1. Ah yes, well that will just be human error – my error – that will be a case of me simply not copying and pasting him from the main stats guide… i can see why…he is one of those with 24% win SR… were it 10/40 he would have qualified officially on that angle (10+ winners, 25%+ win sr…) he is 10/41…and given nearly 50% win/place, I should have included him in the ES+…

      I need to update the main guide and add in ES, ES+… as Steve I think suggested, as that will make highlighting quals easier… i just keep the criteria in my head when using the main guide.

      If in doubt always go off what is in Section 1… even if I make an error say, all results are based on what symbols etc are in there, win lose or draw.

      Josh

  5. Hi Josh

    I will be going racing at Taunton in Wednesday 1 Nov. Would appreciate any thoughts you might have on the meeting. Regards.

    Mike C

    1. Hi Mike, i’m sure I can have a quick flick through, no probs, with the usual caveats! I will attempt to record a quick run through vid ready for Tuesday evening.. provided enough points of interest leap off the page. With any luck there will be a few interesting section 1 qualifiers to help.
      Josh

        1. Noted haha…
          my week’s plans may have just changed… I’m now off to Fakenham, from Liverpool, tomorrow-Thursday… (racing on Wed… you can read into that what you wish re my judgement of chances of Really Super!! i’ve always like the taste of champagne!… transport the other end was a problem, not now, so off I go) … so, Taunton vid unlikely now…sorry Mike, but may have time to gather some thoughts… Wetherby at weekend will be fine, no doubt some nice chases to attack,inc the big one.
          Josh

      1. Hi Mike, i’ll try and get some thoughts up.. my week’s plans have just changed albeit I may be able to have a look at lunchtime on Tuesday. Will try my best,
        Josh

  6. Redcar 3.25 Mitchum I took 15/2, but now generally 7/1
    Mitchum finished very well LTO over 5 and today steps back up to 6 furlongs.
    Soft going and class 6.
    The other time he encountered these conditions (Thirsk) he won a 15 runner race off a mark of 58.
    Today he is off 46 and he has won here at Redcar previously.
    Thats the positives

    Negatives
    Trainer has a low strike rate, Mitchum may be held up and would need luck in running if so.
    Mitchum may not string 2 good runs together but did run up a hattrick off successes in early season 2016 so hope there.

    Drawn 5 he has a chance to get a decent position behind the leader(s) (Tanawar most likely) and hopefully have the pace to finish off well .
    I actually think this race is perfect for him and would be disappointed if he didn’t run well.
    Chances are one of the younger ones may prove too strong but they will do well to beat him.

    1. Well done yesterday Chris, cracker of a pick! Rather annoyed I didn’t flick through the comments when at Aintree…. i came back and stared at Bon Chic within Geegeez instant expert, on my return…and he did somewhat leap out… the only class/distance (combined) winner in race for a start- much amber/green in a sea of red… clearly should have looked at him closer but pleased your eyes picked him out. And then he had all the other stuff to back it up..back to hurdles/change headgear/jockey/very well handicapped etc. returned 53 on the tote…not a penny on. gulp.
      Gl today.

      1. Thanks Josh, i never use the tote so wont beat myself up on that haha,
        I was actually very confident once they took off like a scalded cat as it showed they were there to do a job.
        When they closed up near the last I still felt we were running on, as long as we cleared the last flight.

        What a weekend I had, Friday night backed Cogry win only at 9/1, Saturday morning I passed my driving test (Im 52) came home and read your piece on Cogry and ended up maximising my stakes at 8/1
        Then Bon Chic finished it off in style

        1. If Carlsberg did weekends!! Sounds a cracker, well done on all fronts. Picked the right race to maximise on ‘cogry’ , prob best protect those profits and never maximise on him again haha…albeit I know full well he will be tipped again one day by me.
          Yep, I assume Bon C had gone off too quick, but a couple out, and then one out, it looked like he would just keep going as nothing was really closing, all going up and down on the spot. Decent ride.

  7. Some decent Irish stuff on today, however i can’t find a bet…this might be down to suffering a massive hangover yesterday that seeems to have dragged onto this AM.

    Anyways, just stumbled upon ‘RACEFORM INTERACTIVE’…For sale on the RP, has anyone tried this before?

    1. Raceform Interactive is based on the PURE speed figures, not Racing Post Topspeed.
      It gives only the last ten runnings.
      Years ago there was Dataform; excellent; and the Race Form Update paper using unadulterated figures.
      I much prefer such, as it allowed for easier personal interpretation.
      Ten runnings I find too short and the cost of Interactive excessive.

  8. Some interesting Race Trace horses today in Ireland.

    GALWAY
    1.10 2-2 +£1.37 W P Mullins 1-❖-❖-1-❖-❖-❖………………………….Ainsi Va La Vie
    1.45 3-4 +£3.52 Gordon Elliott 1-❖-❖-1-❖-1-2 …………………………………………….
    ……………………Free Expression, Sutton Manor, De Plotting Shed
    3.30 2-3 +£4.75 Noel Meade 1-❖-❖-❖-4-❖-❖-❖-❖-1………………..The Rory Story
    WEXFORD
    1.00 3-3 +£5.91 Noel Meade 1-❖-❖-❖-❖-1-1-❖-❖-❖……………………………Niven
    2.45 2-3 +£4.80 Henry de Bromhead 6-❖-1-❖-❖-1……………………………Hexapod
    3.55 2-2 +£2.82 Gordon Elliott 1-❖-1 ………………………………Dinaria Des Obeaux

    A few are too short in the betting for me, but Niven at around 7-1 and Hexapod at 14-1 with Jack Kennedy booked look interesting. De Plotting Shed 6/4, The Rory Story 3/1 and Dinaria Des Obeaux 13/8 might make a treble.

  9. 12.30 Redcar – Swiss Chocolate 4/1
    + trainer form with 2yo at the track (3 wins from 5, 4 places at the track last 2 years)
    + trainer form at track (7 wins from 12, 8 places last 2 years)
    + current trainer form – 30% win rate last 14 days
    + Hcp debut
    + Trainer & Jockey 1/1 in last 2 years
    = sire record over C&D 10% win s/r
    = draw not the best but not insurmountable
    – sire prod perform worse with cut in the ground.
    – Not much juice in the price

    Re the negative – Haggas not shy of pulling runners so you have to assume if it runs they think it has a chance

  10. My word they have come for this Poetic Presence… 40/1>8/1… that must be ‘in the know’ money.. 0/16 so far, maybe she will come on for that last run, and be the first jumps winner of the year to be bigger than 25/1 on morning prices…would boost the ‘inform 10/1+’ test. We shall see. Can’t say I backed him… starting to feel uncomfortable! Not another monster, surely…About to find out…

      1. Yep that was ‘exciting’ for a time there! Interesting market move. One to watch maybe. Better ground/less aggressive ride maybe. Clearly moderate but maybe a win in her soon.

  11. @Jack
    Agree completely with Edmund. Also for stats I found it to be next to useless. Very little interactivity about it at all. I only gave it a go cos they offered me a deal to try it out for a couple of months but TBH…. it’s not much better than RP members club, just an awful lot more expensive.

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