Members Daily Post: 27/10/17 (complete)

NOTES horses x3, Section 1 / test zone / Chelt ‘qualifiers’

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT

Newbury

2.50 – Lorelina (3yo+) H3 I3 G3 10/1  S4 S5  2nd 10/1>5/1 

4.35 – Pettochside (mico age) 14 H3 I3 16/1 3rd 16/1>12/1

 

Doncaster

3.35 – Perfect Pasture (micro age) I3 50/1 WON 50/1>28/1 (34.00 BFSP) (nope,nothing on here! Anyone??)

4.10 – Key Bid (all hncps) 5/2 UP

5.20 – Maraakib (micro class) H3 7/1 UP

 

JUMPS

Cheltenham

3.10 –

Buckle Street (all hncps) 20/1 S2  UP

Cottersrock (all hncps) 33/1 UP

Cake De l’Isle (m1) 9/1 UP

4.20 –

Thady Quil (all hncps) 66/1 UP

Petitie Power (m1) 14/1 S2  4th 

5.30 –

Bobble Emerald (all hncps) 10/1 S2  WON 10/1>33/1 

Dream Catching (m1) 14,30 H3  11/2 UP

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +  :  Minimum 10 winners, 25% or bigger win strike rate (angles in link above)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated 22nd Oct)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated 22nd Oct)

Test Zone:  | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>> C Appleby/York Ebor: Read HERE>>> |NTD Sept/Oct: Read HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Email/Note: READ HERE>>>   Welcome VIDEO: Watch HERE>>> (long!) Brief’ Welcome Intro: Watch HERE>>>

Main Stats Guides (used for section 1 quals) : Summer Stats: Read HERE>>> | JUMPS 2017/18: Read HERE>>>>

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : Bet of The Day…  (Flat: 7/77,28p, -8.1) (Jumps: 9/66, +23.5) (total: 17/150, +15.6)  ‘NOTES’  (01/09/17-) (24/110, +126.5)

NOTES

Lorelina2nd 10/1>5/1… ah I don’t like when Frankie looms up like that, you knew he had loads in the tank..no excuse, bumped into a classier one, great run and they had the rest stuffed as anticipated…the fav was keen early, a shame she settled as  the race went on and didn’t keep pulling! Exciting anyway. Trounced the market so no complaints there, the ‘notes value eyes’ are still working.  it would be easy to be scared off by the fav here, who is priced on reputation/connections/previous hopes for the horse – indeed if she is a group horse in the making she will hose up here. But, i don’t like being scared off by a fav. While this is a ‘horse based appraoch’ (ie if I can make a case for a selection/like the price, that’s that – no need to tie myself up in knots with ‘form’ analysis) having had a quick flick through the rest she arguably looks best of a mediocre bunch. She is a bit more exposed but still young enough, drops back from C2 on good to C4 on soft… indeed she is 2/5,4p in C4 races, and relishes the mud. IF she is still in form then 17/2-10/1 looked generous. She is treble rated anyway so you may be on already, but I thought she could run her race here. She may appreciate a big field, and can race on the pace. The jockey clearly gets on with her. She won’t be found out in conditions, where some of these could. If the fav fluffs her lines, i’d be disappointed if she wasn’t thereabouts. It is that funny time of year though on the flat, where anything can happen!

 Pettochside3rd I thought 14s+ was an insult for the old boy, who seems in the form of his life. He needed a career best the last day, and got it. Simply a repeat of that run puts him bang there for me. He is clearly in form, stays, handles soft.. and he travels on the pace/can lead… he should be up there for a long way here, if on song again. If he is beaten he will have to be headed I think. The Haggas horse may swoop past and asking two shorties from big yards to be overturned may be foolish but he has the odd question now and is short enough. Unlike any others in here (bar the Ivory horse who is interesting) he has upside potential- we haven’t seen the best of him you feel. Good old Pettochside is now 6/9,7p on soft – and being in form at this time of year/handling the ground, can make handicap marks a bit irrelevant…a lot of the others in here look out of sorts/have plenty of questions, having had a quick glance. Anyway, he just seems big to my eyes and I couldn’t resist my ‘notes stake’ on him.

Petite Power – 4th  I am going to need some headache pills if I look at this race anymore. I shouldn’t ‘tip’ in it on the free post- it is too hard… but mainly, outside of the members posts/strategies/systems etc, I ‘live for’ getting those races right. All about solving the puzzle. And that looks tough.. I don’t even know if I am going to tip this one.. in recent years this race has gone to a ‘fit’ horse, but Fergal can ready them so not too many fears. But I am happy, at 14s, to throw my ‘notes stake’ at him (and if I don’t tip in free post he is a ‘saver horse’) – mainly as he is an unexposed chaser, running over this sort of trip for the first time on a stiff track… I have just watched 3/4 of his races back…and he looks like a stayer… maybe they are getting their eye in for another chase here, if he takes to the place, but I can see him winning a C3 staying pot somewhere, maybe 3m4f. He may need the run but that is built into the price for me, in the context of his unexposed profile also. The issue with him is his jumping, which is generally good, but twice he has pelted fences when running on and closing leaders, once at Chepstow (i think he’d have gone on to win that) and once at Perth. But, the pace they go here may help, if he can just potter away just behind the pace- if he can lead even better but i am not sure he is quick enough for that -IF he can jump well, he will be staying on up this hill..if fit… so, there are a few questions, but 14s allows some sort of play for last year’s winning connections.. their winner last year didn’t have fitness to prove and had course form.

That’s it for the ‘notes’

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Cheltenham thoughts on ‘qualifiers’ below, to follow…. (after i’ve worked out what to do with the 4.20)

i’ll just mention the 3.10… where I have thrown some £5s at The Mighty Don and Creep Desboi, who I thought both looked interesting enough… the former may need the run, the latter..well unexposed and trainer/jockey on fire at the moment. No doubt one of the others in that race, both from below and above, may leave me staring out the window in anguish! Some money coming for Buckle St. I thought the market may guide with Jonjo’s…and if early signs are to believed it may indicate this is a longer term project..maybe Hemmings has something in mind at Aintree/Haydock soon… that’s guessing, he may bolt up now!

Oh I will mention Treacle Tart who may get a muggy £5 also- she may not be good enough but is fit, in form, and there is every chance she tries to make all. Probably gets overtaken with easy at bottom of the hill but 8s/10s, seems big to my eyes.

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3.Micro System Test Zone

A novice hurdle winner for young Jack Barber on Thursday, emphasising the point that many will turn up knowing their job and will be trying their  best. The booking of Noel F probably worth noting for future.. he uses the same gallop as Harry Fry and I wonder if he has schooled/ridden a few when down there. He was also ‘double entered’, another thing to watch. ‘Only’ 4s mind, but promising enough. 

 

Jockey CD

4.45 Donc – Ce La Vie (any odds)

NTD

2.00 Chelt – Jubulani (m1 22/1<) UP

4.20 Chelt – Wood Yer (m1, 22/1< / M4) UP

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

BIG MEETING NOTES: Cheltenham Showcase Meeting

READ HERE>>> (online PDF)

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Cheltenham ‘Qualifiers/Notes’ 

Italics mark multiple qualifiers.. do read the report above. These are starting points, if you choose to get involved. Hopefully they may point the way- meeting research like this often goes one of two ways! Plenty of logic, we shall see if it pays off…

Ratings Pointers… for the micros I have added in our trusty red symbols, as per Key… these are just added info, and have NOTHING to do with section 1 and the ‘advised strategies’! Just some ratings based info, to help those of you who may have a close look and place a few bets etc.

 

MICRO ‘Qualifiers’

Micro 1 (20/1<)

2.00-

Blairs Cove I3 UP

Its All Guesswork G3 UP

Treakle Tart H3 2nd 

2.35 – Sceau Royale H1 I1 G3 2nd 

3.10-

The Mighty Don H3 I3 G1 UP

Creep Desbois UP

 

Micro 2 (10/1<) (eye on those 10/1-16/1)

2.00 Treakle Tart  (also m2 ‘a’ – 8lb+ last run)  H3 DNQ

2.35 Scheau Royale H1 G3 2nd 

3.10 –

Cake De L’Isle  (also m2 ‘a’ – 8lb+ last run) DNQ

Eaton Hill DNQ

Master Dancer  (also m2 ‘a’ – 8lb+ last run) ‘DNQ’ WON 12/1...were prob due one in that range,given TV was 0/151 at track I left him! Got that monkey off his back

3.45 – Ballymalin I1 UP

5.30 – Dreamcatching H3  UP

 

Micro 3 (10/1<) (eye on those 10/1-16/1)

3.10 –

Cake De L’Isle DNQ

Eaton Hill DNQ

Master Dancer ‘DNQ’  WON 12/1...were prob due one in that range,given TV was 0/151  at track I left him! Got that monkey off his back

5.30 – Dreamcatching H3  UP

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Trainers

Nicholls

2.35 – Movewiththetimes UP

3.45 – Black Corton WON 4/1 

5.30 – Dream Catching  UP

C Longsdon

2.00 – Treacle Tart 2nd  

3.10 – Vivas 2nd

4.20 – Azure Fly UP

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

34 Responses

  1. Pleased to see Cottersrock appear in your list above Josh .. it was on my radar too , i went in at 50/1 e/w B365 earlier … ran well for a long way last December … 65 days off but does seem to go well fresh , as you guys were saying in yesterdays posts , price shouldn’t put you off . Of course it could just as easily run out (again) but at the price im in 🙂

    1. Yep, well backing all MKs handicappers here has been ok in recent years… i would add that we still await our first winner that on morning prices is bigger than 25/1! (hence strat #2 prices used) The biggies we have had at least were put in a ‘short’ enough price.. but, if you’ve looked at him and can make a case to have a dart, have a dart you must! Esp at those odds. That’s what it’s all about, and one monster, on morning prices, will fall in one day! GL (yet to look at him myself)

    2. Cottersrock is owned by Stuart Baikie – a very good friend of mine who lives opposite me – 1/2 mile from Cheltenham Racecourse. The horse had ringworm which is why it was pulled out of it’s last entry circa 3 weeks ago. The jockey today rides him out at Martin’s yard. Cottersrock has also has ulcers but everything is fine now. The horse is fit and beat the top rated comfortably a year ago. Stuart has said to back it e/w — and if the horse wants it today (wearing blinkers as can be a bit of a character) and he is on a ‘going’ day he will go very close.

  2. Lily Pinchin almost achieved what Paddy Brennan couldn’t manage,get Monderon home in front 4.05 Ludlow,taking it up 3 out and then his luck ran out,was poor jumping throughout but Lily held on until the contrary bugger stumbled when seemingly having race at his mercy,hope Lily isn’t hurt as she rides Petite Power tomorrow,her ride on Creevytenant at Perth was one of the best rides of the season,she has had a winner at cheltenham and is a rising star,trainer won this last year with Troika Steppes,16/1 ew 4 places may be the way to go

    1. Probably ducking the race but am thinking of throwing £5 ew on that one. Was ahead of Shanroe Santos on his last win so the form is solid although this is a total different cup of tea. We also do know he has no problem running off a break.

  3. Fascinated by DREAMCATCHER as the trainer likes to target this race (17.30 Cheltenham).
    Since 2012 he has had only one runner in this race each year and they have finished 14311

    1. Agreed David. I have a few more Race Trace qualifiers today. They haven’t done that well since I started posting them on here but you do often get decent prices which will make up for a losing run. I like to look for a 60% strike rate in a race. Some trainers may target a race but not do that well. These are the qualifiers that have hit that target:
      3.10 Chelt Gordon Elliott 1-❖-1-❖-❖-4- ❖.Rightdownthemiddle (£15.50)
      4.20 Cheltenham Ian Williams 1-1-❖-❖-❖-5-❖-❖-❖…Indian Castle (£15.00)
      5.30 Cheltenham Paul Nicholls 3-1.1…Dreamcatching (£10.33)
      DONCASTER
      4.10 John Gosden 3-1-❖-❖-❖-1 ………….Great Sound (£8.50)
      NEWBURY
      1.40 William Haggas 2-❖-❖-1-❖-1-❖ …………Jahaafe (£21.50)
      I’ll be having a Lucky 31 on those 5.

  4. Bloody hard days racing.

    Bad couple of picks yesterday from me both showing ziltch!

    Cheltenham today, i wouldnt be surprised in the 2.00 and 2.35 if any of them won basically it’s that tricky. The same with the 3.45.

    Really looking forward to seeing if “Slate House” lives up to his billing… No strong views so its over to you Josh lol

    1. My head hurts already, and I haven’t even had one of my Friday evening ‘sessions’ (which I try and calm down in the winter months given how good the chasing gets on Saturday’s!) It is bloody tough… one for sensible staking/sticking to betting bank stakes etc/ and having some fun. usually if you do land on a winner they pay well enough, and for most of the losers!

      Ah, you did pick out a 20/1 shot the other day, you are now due a few duds!

      Josh

  5. wasn’t going to pick anything myself today but found a spare hour to have a nosey through the Cheltenham card.
    3-10. top weight KK Lexion 14-1 runs well fresh but is still 10lb above last winning mark but i’ll have a small ew as i will on Cake de L’Isle 18-1 lightly raced and could be still improving.
    3-45 i’m going to take on Fagan with NTD’s Ballymalin, no real logic just fancy it.
    4-20 not going to disagree with anyone else’s picks as many look to have a good chance just going to throw another one into the mix, had a small ew on Bertie Boru 33-1 who will relish the trip and could be staying on past knackered horses.
    gl all with whatever you chose

    1. Good question… Racing Post horse profiles detail PtP runs I think, but not too much info really, other than fact they may have come that route…. i forget the name of the site but there is a premium website for point to pointing that many ‘experts’ use… will try and remember what it is called!

  6. Terrific result at Donny Josh….sadly i wasn’t on…only the second…****
    On every other bugger bar Perfect Pasture……lol

    WEll done mate.

    Tony Mc

    1. Oh I don’t need a well done, he hit the stats, he qualified… sadly not against a strategy!! I didn’t back him.. his recent form, that of the trainer, was enough to put me off…maybe I didn’t appreciate the drop in mark/and this was a much weaker C2 than recent years.. oh well.. I can live with that, backing all flat quals blind loses you money, unlike jumps actually (need to get on top of all those results) so just then trying to home in.. ideally i’d have found him in the ‘Notes’, but alas I didn’t! We move on.

    1. You’re a bugger… can you buy me some drinks tonight haha. Well done! I have been staring at him ever since. Haven’t not backed a winning monster on here for an age- but have to remember number of losers I have dodged… more annoyed with my ‘notes’ head that I couldn’t take a punt. But, gone now. He had an I3 as well, some supporting ‘ratings’ evidence.. and looking at IE in Geegeez he was one of few below last winning mark..a drop in ‘class’ from very competitive C2s and ‘only’ beaten 5l LTO when hit some trouble in running. Think Micks 2/54 last 30 days, 0/24 last 14, may have put me off also. But a 50s shot. Ah.

    1. Ah that’s the way to do it William, a wiser man/punter than me today, that’s for sure! May take me a little while to get over not doing the same.

  7. Hi Josh/members, great stuff this blog!! I am home alone tonight, my partner is going out for a meal and I am dog sitting my daughter’s dog!! (I do live the high life) But on the other hand I have Attheraces all to myself, has anybody any thoughts on the poor fare at Wolverhampton or even Dundalk.
    Well done to SP2A today a good winner (I had 12/1) and 3 others hitting the woodwork, that after a few quiet days
    Harry

    1. hi Harry, sounds like an entertaining evening ahead!
      I leave the AW well alone so you don’t want my views on that! mainly as I can get to this point in a day and have racing fatigue…esp when I have had a shocker myself, like today! No tips winners, no notes winners, didn’t back the two decent priced winners above in the content. One of those. Think I need a stiff drink. I’ll let anyone else chip in with AW thoughts.
      GL if you have a dabble!
      Josh

    1. Whoosh! That lifts the mood slightly.. yea i’m not sure he wins that without loose horse. One for strat #2 But if you front run and get out of trouble you can deserve your luck. Stewards can’t really do anything about that. A few fallers in behind also who were travelling well! Some say you make your own luck. 🙂

  8. I agree about the loose horse. It seems to work against me usually but not this time. I backed it at 40.0 on BF and because I like to back clear leaders in jumps races I backed it again at 16.5. Bewdiful. Thanks Josh.

  9. I was cheering like mad when bobble emerald won, went to check which bookie I’d put it on with then realised I’d not placed the bet. I even have it wrote down! Feel like crying. WL all who was on.

  10. Cheers Josh. I just switched to S2 this week. Makes up for a poor run from GP. He’ll come good again I’m sure, as will S2 have a few barren runs but boy when the big winners come along it makes it all worthwhile.

    1. ha, it sure does Ken! Yep Gary P is due a shocker… his July was mad.. his historical SR is around 10-12% I think… I have chatted with him about it… he is due a -60 to poss -120 point barren run at some point- it is simply the maths based on fact he was performing way above his long term average.. and that is exactly same as S2… that has been high in recent weeks and still is..and will have a horror run.. but again, not to drone on.. that is why small stakes/banks/building up, is key! Glad you jumped on.

  11. Boy oh boy
    only checking my results now and POW BOBBLE EMERALD 30BSP – 1 point win smashing result and was on same horse last time it was out too for big win..luvvly jubbly , only downside I can see it ended up 33/1 SP first time ive seen big price be beaten off the exchange, anyway no complaints here! well done JOSH!

  12. Well that was an eventful day had a small ew on Perfect Pasture @50 but some how missed Bubble Emerald doh!. Can’t complain really when looking at the profit for the day.

    I hear there is a little footy match being played your way tomorrow josh 😉 sadly I won’t be there in person to cheer the terriers on.

  13. Josh spoke about a larger wheel barrow the other day have you started selling them yet?
    All i can say is thank you for your work however you do it keep it up.
    Cheers
    Colin

  14. only just saw the bobble emerald result myself , really happy with that / the way things are going for me now on here , like has been said strange the bfsp didn’t go above the sp price , not going to let that spoilt things though ,,no way ……thanks a bundle josh

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