JUMPS TIPS RESULTS UPDATE (inc Chelt Festival x2)
Summary (to advised stakes/prices|bog)
2016: 219 bets / 30 wins / 64 places (inc wins) / +82 points
2017- : 134 bets / 14 wins / 35 places / +90 points
Total: 353 bets / 44 wins / 99 places / +172 points
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I hadn’t totted up my jumps ‘tipping’ totals since the end of November 2016.. I knew they had been ticking along of course. 🙂 Not much to say on that front really. They are what they are. Given the average odds I play at the win SR will never be much more than 12-15%, it doesn’t need to be. I only care for profit, and solving the hardest of puzzles every now and then. I would say that my profit tends to come in spikes… +90 points Jan 2016, +74 points March 2017… the summer of this year (May-Sept) +31.5 points. The longest losing run in 2017 to date has been 31. I am currently on a losing run of 10 or so. I have a few points to play with, in my own ‘jumps tips’ betting bank. Use that info as you please.
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TIPS
4.25 Carl –
Landmeafortune – 1.5 point win – 7/1 UP 13/2 *
I can live with that result.. would have been miffed enough if Presented had won, the grand old warrior! – Courtown Oscar has done that well enough, in ideal conditions. My only niggle was whether he would be fit or not and my judgement was that 6s wasn’t big enough for me to find out, in a race like that. Kirby has readied him.. I suppose it is arguably his fav course so may make sense. He had some decent form on paper. Fav was right to take on… Landmeafortune just wasn’t good enough when push came to shove, he travelled into it just fine, and looked like he may stay on and get involved, but didn’t do much a couple from home. No excuse. I have simply got him very wrong. Maybe he hasn’t see it out in the ground, which I thought he would. Or just doesn’t have the class. Moving on. Shanroe Santos is clearly the one to take out of that…he has some sort of pot in him this year and has handled that ground ok.. trying to make up that much ground from the back may have took its toll near the end, in that ground/up that hill.. eye-catching though. His next few starts could be interesting.
No others.
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Landmeafortune – well he just ticks all the boxes here really. He can have his own ideas about the game but he is generally consistent and 7/1, 6/1 felt a few points too big. I think his price should be closer to the fav who after all has to prove he really sees this trip out. There are no fitness concerns with the selection, having won well LTO after a break. He usually jumps very well and is a relentless galloper. He has ran well at the track before over slightly shorter. He stays further than this, and in heavy ground that will be key. He has nothing on his back and conditions just look ideal for him. Brooke will try and race him up there, or track the pace. I hope they put his stamina and jumping to good use here. He chased home Boric in the Highlands National earlier in the year and he ran well here in a decent little race last week. The horse is only 2/7 chasing and has only finished out of the frame once. For me he is the only one in here that doesn’t have a stamina, fitness, form or ground question (or all four!) and as such, 7s seems generous. Those who deal in ‘ratings’ may look at his lowly mark and scoff. Maybe he won’t be good enough. But ability to jump, stay and handle the ground is more important in these races. He is also open to more progress. While the trainer has a poor record here, the horse doesn’t, and his stats with LTO winners following up are decent.
With every other runner I am then assessing a niggle against their price really. I may add one more, or I may leave it with him. I’ll decide in the morning. But there was no way I was talking myself out of this one, he could arguably be 4 points shorter. He just looks solid. Hopefully he gets out of bed the right side and travels sweetly on the front end. We will have some fun then.
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Well, I am going to stick to my guns and my head.. I have stared at Carrigdhoun, watched about 5 of his races back, and will not be ‘tipping’ him… he may win if others fall in a hole but I don’t think he will stay this trip in heavy…that is what I have concluded. He stays it in good to soft/good,bit of soft, but as yet he hasn’t proved he can cope with such conditions. The two times he has ran on heavy over similar trips, both Perth this season, and Kelso many runs back.. he has been stuffed.. it may show a ‘2’ in the formbook at Kelso, he was beaten 20L and it could have been more…also, when he has looked like he may cope, he has had easy leads and gone a very very slow pace. Now, he is a strategy pick in my Members post, and I have had my min ‘system’ bank bet on him at 10s… I won’t be shocked if he won necessarily… but i’d be throwing 1/2 point at him as a ‘tip’ for fear of being wrong. I hate being wrong (as you will see from those results updates, I am wrong a lot with 12-15% win SR!). But I will stick to what I think. I wouldn’t be tipping 1/2 a point for the right reasons. Also, his last win here in Feb was fortunate.. the leader there fell at the last when there was no doubt in my mind he’d have stayed on and won. So, I have made my bed, tipping wise, and I will lay in it, come what may! I have backed him on his last three wins here since start of Oct 2016, and he has won me 35-40 points or so… (either tipped or qual against members stats) he owes me nothing and I can happily cheer him on, and happily be wrong.
Of the rest..
The fav looks solid enough but that is short enough for one where I am yet to be convinced he fully stays this trip, in this ground. The evidence suggests he probably does, but I don’t want to back a horse at those odds with such a question to prove. He hasn’t been running in great races really and that run here two starts back he plugged on, when the leader started to tie up. This is even softer today. In any case, I can live with him winning at the odds- as the market suggests he may do. No issue at all. In form, fit, handles heavy (q over this trip) and is lightly raced over fences.
The rest I am happy to leave…Itstimeforapint… I am convinced he will plod to victory in an ok staying chase one day.. he is slow mind, and him and Carrigdhoun battled it out at Kelso in one of those ‘nationals’ – battled it out for second that is, plugging on.. Harry The Viking had long gone, thankfully! Fitness is a question… Russell is hard to read as to when she will get one ready after a break..but she is 0/18,4p with chasers here returning after 60+ days, in the last 5 years. The horse doesn’t have record of running well after such breaks, well, yet to win. I was happy to leave.
Kap Jazz… well he was too short for me given the fitness Q (doesn’t have a winning profile after breaks) and the stamina question and the going! Just too many niggles in context of price. He is lightly raced/unexposed, and this could be ‘his year’ to step forward. He was beaten when returning last year on seasonal debut, in heavy, on a much easier 3m…so, some questions there.
Courtown Oscar will like the ground but again was 6s or so and short enough given fitness concern. 0/5,0p after breaks of 60+ days. The trainer can ready them though, and a repeat of that win here in Feb 2016 would put him in the mix. It was just the break that niggled at me. He is on a career high chase mark also, which is no bad thing in itself, but more of a niggle given I am not sure he is open to that much improvement. Only 7 mind, he could develop into a slightly better horse than he is. He will relish the ground. If you like the price not much I can say to put you off really..mainly a fitness Q for me, so I left him.
Shanroe Santos – I didn’t like his run LTO, too poor for me, and i don’t like the fact he is usually held up out the back of the TV. I want double figures at least for those types really- as they need so much to go right.. luck in running, everything in front to stop, the fitness/form/energy, to close from the back when jumping at pace- which poses it’s own jumping questions. He has a big weight and heavy is a complete unknown really. At his price, he was one I could happily leave. He may beat me. I can live with it, at single figures. Backing seemingly out of form chases isn’t the best approach, which is something I have come to think more about in recent months- if they look out of form/sorts, they usually are!
I am happy to leave the rest. If they beat me then I was never destined to back them!
PACE… is interesting…. Courtown Oscar is usually up there, and so is Kapp Jazz.. I don’t think Presented or Carrig will be quick enough to stay up there if something else wants to lead. The fav can race prominently. And so can the selection. They should go sensible in these conditions, but Brooke will have options. He should be in the front third. The first half mile will be crucial. If he is travelling comfortably then game on. I don’t think this class will find him out, but you never know. 7s worth a punt. He does look too solid to be true to my eye, but I couldn’t bring myself to tip anything else at the odds.
Onwards, to glory. He is galloping this lot into the ground I tell you! (you have to be confident in this game)
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MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES
None.
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That’s the lot today.
GL with any bets.
64 Responses
forgot to mention it ian but your tracker horse makkadangdang ran an excellent race at kempton last night it should be winning soon
Paul; thanks for the heads up; had half watched the race and read the analysis in RP this morning, definitely a slow burner but tracking these types can pay long term dividends and maybe a furlong further and slightly better draw will see a win/place next time. Half hoping Andrew Balding will not send it to sales and possibly put it back to square one!
Grade one courses method
Ryan Moore 6 losing rides today total profit 8.02 points
William Buick 2 winners from 4 rides BFEX SP 5.29,7.28 total profit 19.95 points
Next grade one course Friday 27th October
Evening Josh,
I tried my best to disagree with you but I really cant. His record in 3m+ handicap chases on soft or worse is 2121. I do have more faith that the fav will stay than you but do think its between the 2 and he makes a solid e/w bet at 7s so having 1pt e/w
Evening Nick, well we are buggered now haha- cue scrubbed along early/not in the mood/worse chase run of his life! Yep, I mean those comments about fav are in context of his price. That race here two starts ago was deeper I think, and he ran ok- but was a bit up and down come the end. I think the selection looks a more thorough stayer, on the evidence to date. This could really take some getting. In any case I can live with him beating me at 5/2, no problem. This one shouldn’t be more than twice the price. Bar those two, the rest have just a bit too much to prove I think. Those with recent runs look out of sorts- my heart more than head likes the old grey, but he has always been better on firmer, and that run the last day was a bit laboured. Maybe age catching up. Shanroe Santos was just too poor LTO and is usually held up out the back and heavy an unknown. I suspect all the others may need the run, even before you delve into the other questions they have to answer! Probably too good to be true but at 7s seemed a must play to my eyes. Glad you agree!
What do you guys not like about Venetia’s runner in this race? Fitness? I get why you like the selection. The favourite looks short to me.
Oh yea fitness may not be an issue, albeit he doesn’t have a proven record fresh, and was beat when falling on reappearance last year. i didn’t like his price, 5s, in context that a)fitness it is still a question b) he is now 0/5,1p beyond 2m5f and there is a stamina question with him. Esp over 26f around here in heavy, on reappearance. I am also not sure as to the strength of his form. But he is unexposed and there should be more to come this year, 2/5 chasing…. He may dot up, I didn’t think 5s overly generous in context of my niggles… a few too many questions, in context of price. Were he 10s+, maybe a different question.
Where do you want to start Martin…..
No wins on heavy. No wins at 3m. Poor record fresh. Carrying 11st11lbs on heavy. Obviously he is unexposed and could easily have improved massively however there are enough concerns there that I wouldn’t back it at twice the price. If it beats me I will have no qualms about it.
PS what was that you were saying about Spurs LMAO
I was looking to buy a house in Tottenham and there is a lovely 2 up 3 down place which appeals….lol
I get the weight thing. I get the price being short at 5’s. The horse has improvement in it and may be suited by 3M. I did not think the ground was heavy. I dont fancy it, not my sort of race.
PS I was surprised Spurs gave up a 2-0 lead as they looked a lot better than Wet Spam, very surprised.
I think you have underestimated the 8yo Shanroe Santos who must be open to further improvement at 3m+. Loves a rh track, comfortable win at Sandown last March off 126, likes soft going and seems to adapt, so heavy not an issue, pedigree encouraging too?
Eyecatching that the Wadhams’ come here with Hughes engaged.
Has a chance to outclass these before a raise in grade, don’t you think? After all this is not a high class race. Chances are that it will drift from 8/1 in the morning, I think.
Not in the slightest Chris. Following his Warwick (which was far more impressive than his Sandown one considering he beat an equally well treated Future Gilded with the rest a mile behind) I have had him down as well treated-mentioned him here before his win at Sandown but he was a point too short to tip and I expect him to win a class 2 3m chase this season. However I don’t think today is it. His trainer is woefully out of form and hasn’t had a winner for 3 months and he has yet to do anything on undulating tracks. He has a massive weight (even worse considering he is 0/5 carrying 11st7lb or more), has yet to prove he stays this far. All his form has been in Jan to March also. He clearly is good enough to win but too many questions for me and I was looking at something more solid.
What Nick said! 🙂 I’d also had that where possibly, unless really tempting odds, I like to avoid proper hold up horses- and he is usually held up a way off the pace.. I also want a bigger price with chasers who look out of form..maybe there was an excuse the last day but he was well beat before any fitness issues would have arisen. I want to see a bit more, all as ever, in context of price. They may go too quick here and fall in a hole, and I won’t be shocked if he took it, mildly surprised, but I was happy to leave. I suspect Wadham has already mapped out a few races for him at Sandown already!
Not sure Wadham is “woefully out of form” two of last three runners have finished midfield in decent foelds and her latest a placed runner in a decent race, more indicative that they are coming to the boil.
It intrigues me why she should send a horse from Newmarket to Carlisle and back to run in bottomless ground that could seriously under-mine the campaign ahead. The horse can run left and right handed and if it is a case of getting a run, why not head to Cheltenham, plenty of options there, better ground and a hill to blow away the cobwebs.
If I was the trainer of SS the only possible reason I’d go to Carlisle is to win, can’t see any other reason given the trip and the known conditions and booking of Hughes is telling too. I don’t think it will win today; but her actions indicate she must think it can, and she knows a lot more than I do.
Interesting in an already fascinating race.
No tips other than 1pt e/w on Landmeafortune in the 16:25 at Carlisle however have thrown a fiver e/w on Umaimah in the 18:45 at Chelmsford given both the jockey and trainer record at the track on top of the fact the front two in her first race have won class 1s even if they were a fair bit ahead of her. Also Haggas’ last 5 2yr non-handicap runners here have finished 12131 and she should love the surface based on breeding. Does have a bad draw which stopped me from tipping it up and the race does appear to have a lot of depth.
LANDMEAFORTUNES breeding is interesting
Lots of German stamina on the sires side of the pedigree
and Roselier who is a real stamina influence is his dams sire
so I think the 3m2f trip on heavy ground will suit even better
than the 3 miles at Perth.
The horse is only 8 and hasn’t got many miles on the clock
and has had 29 days to get over his Perth slog
so good placement by his trainer
At Perth he looked an out and out stayer and on todays stiffer track with a
light weight and race fitness
I will be surprised if he is out of the first 3.
up in class but that is the only negative
Thurles tomorrow is a pretty average card…Glen’s Harmony debuts over hurdles and could be a good one.
The only race i have a slight interest in betting wise is the 5.00. It’s paying 4places e/w. Mick The Jiver instantly catches the eye as very very well in on his chase form. He tore Kilcarry Bridge apart, a horse that has went on to run Road to Respect close…albeit the form might not be rock solid as plenty in behind looked out for a run. MTJ is 32pds well in on his chase form, and he relishes heavy ground so the break for spring/summer might have been down to that rather than a setback. He’s best price 5/1 now, Hills opened 8s which i thought was risky…but it may well be a risk worth taking as it is also possible he is out to get fit over the smaller obstacles. Having a quick scan over his form, he doesn’t run superb fresh. I think he might be worth taking on with Rebel Ace. This horse again relishes the softer going and that hopefully is the reason for the break ..His form wouldn’t be sensational..probably the best of it 19ls behind average enough Sharps Choice and Capital Force- neither are top novices. However, that run was over 2miles and his last run before his break was quite eyecatching. Upped to 2m4, he ran fine all the way, before being pushed a long at the 4th last…He stayed on (slowly lol) and was staying all the way to the finish. Again stepping up to 2m7, i think this could suit him down to the ground.. Theres a shower or two about tomorrow, and hopefully the ground stays soft enough. Lastly, the trainer sent out Sumos Novios to beat MTJ by 7odd lengths in January, and whilst its not certain, there’s a possibility, he thinks this guy can do the same!
He’s 14/1 now so i will have a small dabble…
Interesting the confidence in Landmeafortune; but yet to win beyond 3 miles and 1/2 furlong and Perth and Ayr where it has won are markedly different to Carlisle. Twice placed at Carlisle off 93 and 98. Can see it carries 10 stones and 10 pounds off 109 and that’s a career high mark. The 7/1 represents decent each way value v the favourite but there is surely something with superior form at 10/1.
Caririgdhoun Course and Course and Distance winner here last October (also won in this month in 2014) off 122 and 126; and subsequently win again here in January 2017 off a mark of 131. He has won on Good to Soft plenty of placed form on heavy at tracks where heavy is pudding (Ayr and Newcastle). Equally eye catching was his run at Kelso last year off a mark of 132 over an extended 4 miles in a real slog. That I think is the best stamina form of any in the race.
Has had 2 quiet runs so far so comes here cherry rips, has won fresh too, icing on the cake for me is a great win for Trainer Maurice Barnes at Sedgefield today and in Dale Irving; a jockey in decent form and rides these Chasers very well. The 10/1 tonight is just too good to ignore and I’m on.
I may have a dabble on something else in the morning..
Good Luck all whatever you are on
mmm there is also an interesting form line between Landmeafortune and Carrigdhoun via a horse called Boric. Boric beat Carroghdoun last time out with Carrighdoun looking like it needed run and further by 14 l in receipt of 9lbs from Carrigdhoun. Meanwhile Boric beat Landmeafortune by 5l giving it 5lbs in April; the distance/weight marks therefore look almost as close to a dead heat IF both horses ran to those performances tomorrow, as you can get. Very interesting little race; within a race it looks!
Yep we really do differ…I’ve never understood or had any time for all that weight/lengths/pounds stuff in handicap chases haha. I can’t logically get my head around how, given the very different race conditions/tactics uses/horses diff stages of their careers/jumping ability…how any of that is relevant/useful… Bar it being some sort of general positive that horses frank form..indicate some depth..get rated X and can get a feel for how good a race it. But all that collateral form lines chat has never been for me! I’d end up giving myself a migraine.
What makes you think Carrigdhoun needed the run LTO? I thought he just floundered in ground/looked slow. .maybe 26f in heavy is actually now what he wants!! Could be. Get feeling one of these three will win,will find out soon enough!
I felt he bottomed out/got out-paced about 2 f out and then stayed on with second wind.
It is an intriguing race/dynamic and will be very interesting.
My logic based on old fashioned form analysis is that every horse has a mark it can win off; even when regressing, they can find a level. In a similar fashion you have to assess whether a horse can win off a higher mark.
So in this case one runs off 109 a career high mark and one runs off 126-3, a mark that is 8lbs lower than what it won off here in January….so can Landmeafortune improve 7lbs on career best up in grade (4 to 3) and has Carrighoun regressed by more than 8lbs since January….
I suppose it is a bit like Peter Snow and his old swing-ometer; it will be a case of how much one can improve and how little one has regressed…
intriguing!
Hmm well a game of opinions haha. And I’m not a ‘form’ punter really,that’s where we differ! All angles covered. There is no doubt he stays in my mind… he was running on in the Highlands National and again here when placing. He stays well. Arguably on video evidence/having watched his recent races I’d say he stays better than the brave old grey… career high marks are irrelevant if you are of the oponion that they are unexposed? In context of price.
Carrigdhoun…well i can see why you like him and he is the main one I am pondering 1/2 a point. 10s is ok. Yes he has placed form on soft/heavy but not at this type of track really…I think the hill may catch him out and he plods on at one pace really…which sometimes is enough. but I don’t like asking 12 year olds to do something new and looks like age may be catching up with him…that last run was laboured when I don’t think fitress a question. Maybe he just plods on when everything else is done. I’ve backed him on his last 3 wins at this track, either tipped or members stats picks,so we shall see,maybe I have him wrong. I was struggling to see why he builds on last run esp in ground which is far from ideal. Unless he has come on for it again.
If he found his best he may just be best. He is stats qual on a few angles so he’ll have something on. Mine may not be good enough but yet to prove what his ceiling is in staying chasers. Not many 12 yo win non veterans chases. Would be heart warming though. GL.
The only thing that caught my eye with Carrigdhoun and I thought was interesting is that the trainer has only once returned him to the track within 7 days and he won – I do feel that he although he has placed on soft and heavy ground he has yet to win in 13 attempts.
Yep I did notice that quick return stat… I am going to watch that last race again, and come to a conclusion! He is clearly well in himself and maybe that run did bring him on a tad more. He has plugged on and ‘gone forward’ on heavy before, rather than pulling up/falling out back of TV. hmm.
Loving this healthy banter and debate it is excellent.
Battle of styles, new stats driven approach v old form book
Battle of horses fancied, one going up t career high mark v one possibly regressive but who can still win off right mark.
Of course there are other runners in the race and some would be massive dangers if running well fresh or stepping up in trip with aplomb.
Will be very interesting to see how it pans out and my over-riding aim is always the same (a) listen (b) learn (c) beat the bookies!
Good Luck all.
Oh the best bit is, none of us have probably mentioned the winner and if something else goes in at 7s+ i’ll be my usual annoyed self haha. Yep I am a ‘profiler’ with these types of races, with some stats thrown in… and i do now tend to focus on the more unexposed/doing something different horses etc. Rather than looking at old handicappers returning to an old performance to win/finding their level- generally of course.. have backed a few with that exact profile, and clearly not every race has unexposed/lightly raced in racy type, sorts in it. Will be good fun to watch whatever happens.
Is the age of the regressing horse an issue?
The Carlisle horse is 12 so does that indicate it may be regressing with age?
and when pros look at the horse will the age put them off
and allow the horse to start bigger than it should?
As will all things racing, generalities are dangerous, and you have to take everything on a race by race, horse by horse basis when it comes to such things as age/regression etc. of more importance is probably number of chase runs/hncp chase runs… chases are a true test and once a horse hits it’s peak/ceiling/stops progressing, each chase will slowly take a chunk out of each runner. As Ian says, every horse has their level somewhere. It is quite logical that the older you get, in general the slower you get. Carrigdhoun, unless in exceptional circumstances, is not now ever going to be better than his best performance in his career to date. So then a case of judging when he does have conditions to strike again, how well placed he is etc. May be today. More to the point when they hit this age is clearly the fact they are open to attack from anything else that has yet to hit their ceiling of ability- it is more about being open to attack from more lightly raced legs… the fav, selection,and a few others, fall into that category. Everything is always about price and weighing up those pros and cons.
In part that is why the Veteran’s series is so good and I would think he will find himself in one of those at some point. No right or wrong to that question, mainly about subjective opinion! You get horses 10+ who still improve, mainly lightly raced etc. Or who have had a couple of lengthy career breaks for whatever reason,and actually haven’t raced that much.
My main concern would be Dale Irving is 0-22 at Carlisle,maybe the losers were just making up the numbers,and getting some riding experience,nonetheless its a negative
Trainers at certain courses interest me
Looking at the 4.30 at Worcester yesterday I thought there could be
an e/w bet against the favourite and at first glance
Tom Georges Another Stowaway looks to have the right profile
but I looked at Toms record at Worcester and he was 2 from 41
a 3% strike rate for such a good trainer seems desperately low
and Another Stowaway ran poorly.
Has anyone any thoughts why a trainer should have such bad figures
Worcester is hardly a top track so maybe Tom only sends his horses
who are not ready to win there
any other cases of top trainers having way below average records
at certain courses
Maybe Tom is saying this horse isn’t ready to win just send him to a close track
so it doesn’t incur travelling expenses.
Be interesting to note other trainers who have very poor records
at tracks near their home base
Peter; I have got to know a Trainer who trains close to Worcester quite well (coincidence it is Worcester) but he has always made the point about Courses and Owners.
There are some Trainers who specialise at local tracks (look at Scotland/far North) but some Trainers will avoid local tracks unless they feel forced to run at them.
There are Trainers in the lower ranks (not TG of course) who feel compelled to keep Owners happy; so, if the (local) Owners want to run at the local Track, then the Trainer makes a commercial and pragmatic decision to go along with it, wishing to retain the Owner is the most important thing.
You will often hear Trainers say in interviews on ATR/RUK something along the lines of “the owner made the decision to come here” in other words their choice not mine.
With regard to TG I suspect he sees Worcester as a fair flat track with long straights sweeping bends, ideal to school a horse, generally decent Going and also with easy to jump and forgiving portable fences.
Thanks Ian,
I will do some research and see if there are any other trainers who use certain tracks as schooling grounds.
What you say makes perfect sense
With NH horses having long careers if you can weed out the youngsters that are just schooling then you may have an angle
Surprised no mention of Munsaab at what looks a very generous 20/1 to me
5lb below last winning mark, proven mudlark, visor goes on first time (indicates at least trying to get the best out of him)
With many in here needing to prove BOTH stamina and liking for the ground, I think there will be
worse 20/1 shots than him for sure.
Ah yes… well 20s may seem big I suppose… visor may work the oracle… ground is fine and he does stay, and is fit, and that may get him to a certain point in this… i was a bit put off, given he is 11, that he is 0/16,1p all runs above C4, 0/6 in hncp chases returned within 30 days, 0/4,1p going RH, all wins the other way… and the fact Henry Brooke has ridden him for all three of hncp chase wins.. he rides my fancy today, and I suspect would have had a choice. May mean sod all of course. And he just looks woefully out of sorts again, but visor may do trick.
That’s why i’m not on anyway! But, nothing ever a total shock in races like this. nice price. GL
Well yes
but go through the entire field and they all have holes in their form and profile. Carrighdoun on heavy for example.
Your selection for instance is effectively 12lb higher (raised 7lbs + jockey not claiming 5lbs) in a much stronger race and should be left behind today in my opinion. Think he finds this an altogether different task to everything else he’s done.
My S/L is: Kap Jazz, Shanroe Santos, Munsaab and Bigiron
At the prices 20s is an easy min stakes ew poke.
This game is all about subjective opinion Rick. 🙂 Someone will be right on here haha.
I don’t care for ratings in these race types, as touched on.. I don’t really consider them at all in long distance chases on heavy. That’s how I approach it. His ability to travel on front end, jump, handle heavy, stay, climb the hill,keep going,light actual weight, and jockey..make that irrelevant.. he was a 5lb claimer for a reason.. I would think Henry Brooke is at least a 5lb better jockey than him,maybe 7-10, esp on a front running chaser. That’s opinion of course but he is more experienced etc.
However, when it comes to what you say about him finding this altogether very different and could be left behind, i won’t argue with that… my view was that 7s allowed that poke, given all other positives I had for him, and negatives for the rest.. in the context that I view him as being open to progress still, and clearly he does need to step up again.
Gl, with any luck one of us is cheering.
On the same subject Trainers at local courses I found this in Oct 16 article from Ben Aitkin which is the opposite to to TG.
Paul Nicholls at Wincanton | Fields of 12 or less | Distances shorter than 23f | Aged 7yo or younger | NOT December or January
That has returned the following since the start of 2012…
65/126 | 52% S/R | +£85.24 BFLSP – Win & Place 91/126 | 72% S/R
It’s turned over profit in all of the last five seasons and amazingly the last FOURTEEN qualifiers have all won!
I guess the prices aren’t that brilliant but if he has a qualifier at Wincanton at the weekend and you have an interest in a horse in the same race either don’t back it or put it on ew. Just a suggestion.
Mike
Yep, that one has pulled in the profits.. you would be surprised, a few go in at nice prices, inc an 8/1 winner at the last meeting! I wasn’t tracking it but is now in my HRB account. A decent track angle. Amazing it performs so highly above market expectations.. due a small correction soon, but the win sr been solid for an age.
Thanks Mike,
It looks like the trainers MO
has everything to do with the results
Tom George looks like he sends them to Worcester for on track schooling
While Paul Nicholls goes to Wincanton with winning the aim
what I found interesting the market ignored Toms Dire record at Worcester
and the horse went off 2nd fav.
Nigel Hawke At Carlisle and Sedgefield is another area to look at
these tracks are a long way from his base but he does really well with his runners at both venues.
Would I be right in saying that angle can be improved if you look at horses ridden by Cobden and Schofield? I know Cobden/Nicholls at Winc is a lethal combo
On a side note, Harry Fry has a brilliant record at Exeter with hurdlers ridden by Fehily in recent years
Hmm.. I believe Schofield has just left the Nicholls yard for pastures new, so doubt he will be riding for him much/any more.. Cobden was a one/two year specific i think given his claim which was expertly used and a big advantage. He still rides for him now but does ride for others, like Tizard, plenty also. Will be if Cobden/Nicholls carry on this year, or a new 7-5lb claimer takes his place.. one rode one of the winners at last meeting. Well, that’s how i’d view all that.
I am saving my money for Cheltenham. I hear Ben Pauling rates Hidden Glen in the 4.45 Sou, not much of a price thugh. I will go for a treble today, 1.55 Lud Hatcher, 2.15 Car Dark Sunset, 2.30 Lud Fly Home Harry.
Good luck.
Cheltenham the mecca of all jump racing fans is back tomorrow
and with the nature of the course it is a difficult place to find winners.
I think it is the only one of the grade1 tracks that is so undulating
and horses travelling at grade 1 track speed often get unbalanced
at the hurdles and fences add to the mix the field sizes that can see lots of bumping and horses getting unsighted.
Cheltenham form is the best form for horses running at the track
and although it has a very stiff uphill finish.
I don’t think it is suited to slow plodders who just stay
this type are often run off their feet.
Class is everything here and even that is not enough if like Desert Orchid
you can’t go left handed
Dessie may have won a gold cup but that was down to circumstances rather than
his ability at the track.
The competitive nature of the track is also
interesting as almost all the trainers have a losing level stakes record
Having been to Cheltenham many times the one thing I have noticed about the finish is that you have to be in touch at the last in most cases. You would think that the hill would suit late finishers but my eyes tell me that you have to be in touch at the last and cannot come from a long way back.
Is this weekend on the Old or New course since it makes a big difference?
Oct/Nov are Old Course I believe, Dec/Jan New course… Festival.. first two days Old, last two New… and old preview post with musings on both is here http://racingtoprofit.co.uk/2016/03/08/liverpools-cheltenham-preview-evening-notes/
New Course favours prominent racers… Old Course.. can be more held up, esp big fields, as they hurtle down a long hill at pace, often, and those at front can fail to keep enough in reserve, and open to attack from those more patiently ridden.
Always plenty to ponder, but over any course, any lone front runner is dangerous, as they are at most places!
Thanks mate. Knew about the festival but forgot about the rest. I must remember to speak to Chris at HRB to see if there is any way he can split the result for both unless you’ve already asked.
Quids in trading at 26/1 on exchanges Ian has a leg fallen off
Paul, I rarely if ever pay attention to markets. It is all about courage of conviction with me and seeking value. Many of my biggest wins over the years have been on huge drifters that the markets either didn’t pick up or didn’t have the time to study the form on.
It is a tough little race with a few in there from “more sexy yards” and it only needs a big name tipster or newspaper to put a couple up and the money floods in. I have a range in terms of value and then look closely at the form or listen to the vibes. This is a “vibe horse” based on Trainers comments on RUK on Tuesday, following a horse who scooted home largely unbacked and looked teak tough and race fit and adding that to a recent flat spin for this horse and some NH form that would put him in place range at best, worth the small investment imho.
Each to their own and everyone has their preferences but I’m firmly in the “contrarian camp” so let it drift like a barge if it wants to, if it comes off great, if it doesn’t there are still plenty more that will….
Best Wishes
Ian
Thanks Ian let’s hope it runs well
Found an alloy for quids in Ian Colin Russell north correspondent for racing post has napped it so I have gone in again at 25/1
excellent as Colin Russell is one of the more astute RP contributors and has some nice touches, also have the benefit of knowing the Greenall family pretty well I would imagine…lets hope he is right!
Well that little write up on quids in did the trick lan it halfed the price
Josh – apologies for either a) being stupid or b) missing a previous answer to this but in your figures you give win and place stats but I am pretty sure that you only bet “on the nose” so presumably the points figures you have put down are for win only. In that case are the place records for interest only? As I say, I’m sure that this has been dealt with so apologies for time-wasting.
Thanks
Ben
Good question.. the free Jumps Tips are to advised stakes, generally 0.5-2 points win, but been a few 1 point EW, when 4 places, 25s+ probably. Those results are to advised stakes, not just 1 point win – which you are right, I use for everything else!
The place stats above are for my own confidence as much as anything, if I can consistently hist 25-30% win/place then I am happy at the odds I play at that it will all be fine in the long run.
Josh
Thanks Josh
Good afternoon gents,
Think Ill stick my head out for the 4.25 carlisle LANDMEAFORTUNE each way at 7/1. I very much look at trainers records and over last 2 years his trainer has had 7 runs over 25 furlongs with 2 wins and 4 places….enough for me to weigh in!
Just new so keep up good work Josh and all the members and GL today!
back to course trainers and Carlisle has some interesting stats
Lucinda Russell 8-143 at only 6%(hurdles only 5%) from a big sample it looks as if her hurdlers are here for the experience
Neil Alexander 1-63 at 1.5% Amazingly low for such a good trainer
Micky Hammond 6-86 at 7%
Martin Todhunter 2-64 at 3% hope he make it 3 today!!!
Ludlow
Robin Dicken 2-50 at 4%
Southwell
Fergal O brien 3-58 5%
Donald McCain 2-34 6%
Chelmsford
Richard Fahey 9-109 8%
John Jenkins 10-122 8%
Silvester Kirk 2-41 5%
Ed Dunlop 9-93 10%
on the plus side at Chelmsford
bin Suroor has a 37% strike rate to all runners
Ed sends the backward horse and Godophin send the winners
Afternoon Paul… i’m glad someone else likes him…seems a bit weak in market, maybe having one of his moody days! I can say you cursed him now though haha. Interesting race… no money came for an age, but Shanroe S being nibbled at now.
One affliction worse than man flu!
fourthitis painful!
Carrighoun and Quids In and no enhanced odds to 4th today to soothe the pain
“nurse”
That’s the beauty of using a portfolio of tipsters. £40 on the nose on Durbanville saves the day…..just.
what sort of portfolio are you talking about nick how many tipsters are you using
Depends but normally 4/6 across the board including systems.