JUMPS TIPS RESULTS UPDATE (inc Chelt Festival x2)
Summary (to advised stakes/prices|bog)
2016: 219 bets / 30 wins / 64 places (inc wins) / +82 points
2017- : 134 bets / 14 wins / 35 places / +90 points
Total: 353 bets / 44 wins / 99 places / +172 points
I hadn’t totted up my jumps ‘tipping’ totals since the end of November 2016.. I knew they had been ticking along of course. 🙂 Not much to say on that front really. They are what they are. Given the average odds I play at the win SR will never be much more than 12-15%, it doesn’t need to be. I only care for profit, and solving the hardest of puzzles every now and then. I would say that my profit tends to come in spikes… +90 points Jan 2016, +74 points March 2017… the summer of this year (May-Sept) +31.5 points. The longest losing run in 2017 to date has been 31. I am currently on a losing run of 10 or so. I have a few points to play with, in my own ‘jumps tips’ betting bank. Use that info as you please.
4.25 Carl –
Landmeafortune – 1.5 point win – 7/1 UP 13/2 *
I can live with that result.. would have been miffed enough if Presented had won, the grand old warrior! – Courtown Oscar has done that well enough, in ideal conditions. My only niggle was whether he would be fit or not and my judgement was that 6s wasn’t big enough for me to find out, in a race like that. Kirby has readied him.. I suppose it is arguably his fav course so may make sense. He had some decent form on paper. Fav was right to take on… Landmeafortune just wasn’t good enough when push came to shove, he travelled into it just fine, and looked like he may stay on and get involved, but didn’t do much a couple from home. No excuse. I have simply got him very wrong. Maybe he hasn’t see it out in the ground, which I thought he would. Or just doesn’t have the class. Moving on. Shanroe Santos is clearly the one to take out of that…he has some sort of pot in him this year and has handled that ground ok.. trying to make up that much ground from the back may have took its toll near the end, in that ground/up that hill.. eye-catching though. His next few starts could be interesting.
Landmeafortune – well he just ticks all the boxes here really. He can have his own ideas about the game but he is generally consistent and 7/1, 6/1 felt a few points too big. I think his price should be closer to the fav who after all has to prove he really sees this trip out. There are no fitness concerns with the selection, having won well LTO after a break. He usually jumps very well and is a relentless galloper. He has ran well at the track before over slightly shorter. He stays further than this, and in heavy ground that will be key. He has nothing on his back and conditions just look ideal for him. Brooke will try and race him up there, or track the pace. I hope they put his stamina and jumping to good use here. He chased home Boric in the Highlands National earlier in the year and he ran well here in a decent little race last week. The horse is only 2/7 chasing and has only finished out of the frame once. For me he is the only one in here that doesn’t have a stamina, fitness, form or ground question (or all four!) and as such, 7s seems generous. Those who deal in ‘ratings’ may look at his lowly mark and scoff. Maybe he won’t be good enough. But ability to jump, stay and handle the ground is more important in these races. He is also open to more progress. While the trainer has a poor record here, the horse doesn’t, and his stats with LTO winners following up are decent.
With every other runner I am then assessing a niggle against their price really. I may add one more, or I may leave it with him. I’ll decide in the morning. But there was no way I was talking myself out of this one, he could arguably be 4 points shorter. He just looks solid. Hopefully he gets out of bed the right side and travels sweetly on the front end. We will have some fun then.
Well, I am going to stick to my guns and my head.. I have stared at Carrigdhoun, watched about 5 of his races back, and will not be ‘tipping’ him… he may win if others fall in a hole but I don’t think he will stay this trip in heavy…that is what I have concluded. He stays it in good to soft/good,bit of soft, but as yet he hasn’t proved he can cope with such conditions. The two times he has ran on heavy over similar trips, both Perth this season, and Kelso many runs back.. he has been stuffed.. it may show a ‘2’ in the formbook at Kelso, he was beaten 20L and it could have been more…also, when he has looked like he may cope, he has had easy leads and gone a very very slow pace. Now, he is a strategy pick in my Members post, and I have had my min ‘system’ bank bet on him at 10s… I won’t be shocked if he won necessarily… but i’d be throwing 1/2 point at him as a ‘tip’ for fear of being wrong. I hate being wrong (as you will see from those results updates, I am wrong a lot with 12-15% win SR!). But I will stick to what I think. I wouldn’t be tipping 1/2 a point for the right reasons. Also, his last win here in Feb was fortunate.. the leader there fell at the last when there was no doubt in my mind he’d have stayed on and won. So, I have made my bed, tipping wise, and I will lay in it, come what may! I have backed him on his last three wins here since start of Oct 2016, and he has won me 35-40 points or so… (either tipped or qual against members stats) he owes me nothing and I can happily cheer him on, and happily be wrong.
Of the rest..
The fav looks solid enough but that is short enough for one where I am yet to be convinced he fully stays this trip, in this ground. The evidence suggests he probably does, but I don’t want to back a horse at those odds with such a question to prove. He hasn’t been running in great races really and that run here two starts back he plugged on, when the leader started to tie up. This is even softer today. In any case, I can live with him winning at the odds- as the market suggests he may do. No issue at all. In form, fit, handles heavy (q over this trip) and is lightly raced over fences.
The rest I am happy to leave…Itstimeforapint… I am convinced he will plod to victory in an ok staying chase one day.. he is slow mind, and him and Carrigdhoun battled it out at Kelso in one of those ‘nationals’ – battled it out for second that is, plugging on.. Harry The Viking had long gone, thankfully! Fitness is a question… Russell is hard to read as to when she will get one ready after a break..but she is 0/18,4p with chasers here returning after 60+ days, in the last 5 years. The horse doesn’t have record of running well after such breaks, well, yet to win. I was happy to leave.
Kap Jazz… well he was too short for me given the fitness Q (doesn’t have a winning profile after breaks) and the stamina question and the going! Just too many niggles in context of price. He is lightly raced/unexposed, and this could be ‘his year’ to step forward. He was beaten when returning last year on seasonal debut, in heavy, on a much easier 3m…so, some questions there.
Courtown Oscar will like the ground but again was 6s or so and short enough given fitness concern. 0/5,0p after breaks of 60+ days. The trainer can ready them though, and a repeat of that win here in Feb 2016 would put him in the mix. It was just the break that niggled at me. He is on a career high chase mark also, which is no bad thing in itself, but more of a niggle given I am not sure he is open to that much improvement. Only 7 mind, he could develop into a slightly better horse than he is. He will relish the ground. If you like the price not much I can say to put you off really..mainly a fitness Q for me, so I left him.
Shanroe Santos – I didn’t like his run LTO, too poor for me, and i don’t like the fact he is usually held up out the back of the TV. I want double figures at least for those types really- as they need so much to go right.. luck in running, everything in front to stop, the fitness/form/energy, to close from the back when jumping at pace- which poses it’s own jumping questions. He has a big weight and heavy is a complete unknown really. At his price, he was one I could happily leave. He may beat me. I can live with it, at single figures. Backing seemingly out of form chases isn’t the best approach, which is something I have come to think more about in recent months- if they look out of form/sorts, they usually are!
I am happy to leave the rest. If they beat me then I was never destined to back them!
PACE… is interesting…. Courtown Oscar is usually up there, and so is Kapp Jazz.. I don’t think Presented or Carrig will be quick enough to stay up there if something else wants to lead. The fav can race prominently. And so can the selection. They should go sensible in these conditions, but Brooke will have options. He should be in the front third. The first half mile will be crucial. If he is travelling comfortably then game on. I don’t think this class will find him out, but you never know. 7s worth a punt. He does look too solid to be true to my eye, but I couldn’t bring myself to tip anything else at the odds.
Onwards, to glory. He is galloping this lot into the ground I tell you! (you have to be confident in this game)
That’s the lot today.
GL with any bets.