Members Daily Post: 19/10/17 (complete)

Section 1, test zone, TIP/Notes

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc


1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers




Crystal Sunstone (all hncps) 14  ES 12/1 S3

Assertor (3yo+, +micro going) ES 16/1 S3

3.35 – Altaira (3yo+, + micro going) ES G1 13/2 S3 S6

4.40 –

Pour La Victoire (3yo+, +micro going) I3 G3 14/1

Baltic Prince ((3yo+, +micro going/TJC) ES 9/1 S3

5.10 –

Wedgewood Estates (3yo+ micro going) ES H3 11/1 S3

Blistering Dancer (3yo+, +micro going) ES I3 16/1 S3

Bellas Venture (micro class) I3 7/1 

5.40 – Diable D’or (3yo+) 14  4/1




2.10 –

Barrys Jack (hncp hurdle) I3 7/2

Flemerina (micro class) 30 7/1

3.15 –

Ballyben (all hncps) 4/1

Carrigdhoun (all hncps + hncp chase) ES I3 G3 6/1 S3 (S1 IF 11.00+ BFSP) 

I Just Know (hncp chase) ES I3 G3 7/2 S3 (S1 IF 11.00+ BFSP) 

Palm Grey (hncp chase) ES  9/1 S3

4.50 –

Derrintoher Yank (nov hncp chase) 10/1 S2



3.25 – No Hassle Hoff (micro TJC) ES+  I3 G1 5/4 S3 (S1 IF 11.00+ BFSP) 




H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +  :  Minimum 10 winners, 25% or bigger win strike rate (angles in link above)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated 8th Oct)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated 8th Oct)

Test Zone:  | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>> C Appleby/York Ebor: Read HERE>>> |NTD Sept/Oct: Read HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Email/Note: READ HERE>>>   Welcome VIDEO: Watch HERE>>> (long!) Brief’ Welcome Intro: Watch HERE>>>

Main Stats Guides (used for section 1 quals) : Summer Stats: Read HERE>>> | JUMPS 2017/18: Read HERE>>>>

Contact: email:  –  … or failing that… 



2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Test/trial : Bet of The Day…  (Flat: 7/76,27p, -7.1) (Jumps: 9/66, +23.5) (total: 17/149, +16.6)  ‘NOTES’  (01/09/17-) (21/101, +87.5)

Bet Of The Day:   Crystal Sunstone – 1 point win – 12/1

(money has poured on him, was 20s last night, 16s early… I hope any of you ES systematic backers got on at bigger prices… some money from connections/tipped somewhere else maybe.. hasn’t been Hugh Taylored has he…) 

The Brighton card looks pretty dire in truth and many of those above look to have questions to answer, but maybe it’s the type of mediocre day where one or two will fall in. We shall see. Without doubt Crystal Sunstone is the most interesting of those above. He was put up the last day in the notes I think, or maybe ‘tipped’, where he ran ok I thought, on handicap debut. The ground went against him that day I thought. Or in any case, one of the ways in was that the decent ground may see an improved performance. It looked pretty testing to my eyes and for a fleeting moment it looked like he may get involved. He came up the middle of the track and after an initial effort, faded out of things about 1-2f from home. He travelled like the best horse in the race that day. The jockey was the last to move. Here he drops down 2f, which is the main reason for wanting to dive in again. I suspect the jockey made that recommendation and it’s worth a go. ‘Doing something different’. The ground should definitely be better here today, if the official going and forecasts are to be believed. I suspect they will race him more handily. Again, this will go one of two ways. If he disappoints here I’m not sure in what circumstances you could back him again, until seeing more. My hunch says he may bolt up here. Time will tell.



Derrintoher Yank – looks worth a nibble at a double figure price. I had a look at McCain’s recent record with inexperienced chasers, thinking this one was having his first chase start… McCain only 2/43 with those types since 2014, in all handicap chases. But this one has had 1 chase start and the record second time out is much better, and 2/5 with those at the track. This one arrives here arguably on the back of a career best. I wonder if they did something with him before his last run, but in any case he responded well to the hood, making all comfortably. Most of these are inexperienced chasers but I hope they try and make all again. It could be he isn’t a good enough jumper, or indeed simply not good enough. BUT, if he could get in a rhythm on the front end that would give him a big advantage, as he does stay further also. We shall see, but given his recent form and unexposed profile in this sphere, like all of these, he was worth a dabble. Clearly there are a few better hurdlers in here that could just have too much class over fences, but they all have something to prove. 10s allows the play.


That’s the lot for positive thoughts on those in section 1. As always me not mentioning something else isn’t necessarily a negative, just at the prices/their profiles, those looked most interesting to my eyes. Do with that as you please.



Re-cap… a nice win for Jabbarockie who won a 5f sprint with his head in his chest- you don’t see many eased down in the final half furlong. He could have won that by 5l. No shock, given his unexposed profile and drop down in class. And, always nice to bag a ‘bonus’ winner, i.e. a non strategy qualifier. I’d take a repeat of those Notes figures every 101 bets! I don’t think I will be, the losers will come at some point, but that ‘magic formula’ keeps performing (section 1 stats pick/unexposed/lightly raced/doing something diff/decent price) A decent 20/1 (28/1 BFSP) winner for 2 of the flat strategies also. That’s what the ‘strategy’ approach is all about. I mean they are great fun to cheer home, even for £2-5 bets. 



3.Micro System Test Zone


2.45 Carl – Count Meribel (m1, 22/1<)

4.50 Carl – Crievehill (m1/4/6)

Jockey CD

3.05 Bright – Kafoo (any odds) / World Record (9/1< best)

3.35 Bright – Altaira (9/1< best)


4.Any general messages/updates etc

Messages from recent days…



I had a look back at the racing from Chepstow over the weekend and a few horses caught my eye… two in particular. Id be interested to hear what any of you think when watching back the Silver Trophy (G3 handicap hurdle)… with eyes fixed on Old Guard and River Frost…

River Frost… well I may fall of my seat if he doesn’t go close to winning a big handicap hurdle this season. He looks like a handicap plot job… the ride he received here didn’t look great but there may well be excuses. I suspect he could have gone very very close to winning this. It all looked a bit strange. It looked as if there was plenty left in the tank and it will be interesting to keep tabs on him this season. He looked well handicapped here to my eye. Watch the race with eyes on him, especially up the home straight. Almost too obvious I felt, which may mean there wasn’t much too it at all! But, there is more to come for sure.

Old Guard… I thought he may have received a sympathetic ride also. In truth it was his first run back and he may have been out-paced for a time up the straight. But, he certainly wasn’t given a hard time here and finished quite well I thought. I suspect they may have a target in mind, probably back at Cheltenham at one of their next two meetings. He may drop a couple of pounds from this but looks like he could go well again from this mark, esp with a useful claim. One to keep an eye on.

We can keep an eye on those two and see how they go on their next few starts. I can’t think many missed them but who knows.


David Peat’s Horse Profiles


(password:  Profiles17   – Capital P – )

David’s Weekly Update





You may have noticed some new symbols in Section 1.    S followed by a number. S = Strategy and with any luck it is obvious enough… they simply relate to the different ‘advised strategies’ as per the links in the Key. One of you got in touch with the idea which I hadn’t really thought of, but it sounded sensible to me. And a couple of new members emailed separately wanting confirmation of what hits what etc. So, hopefully that helps. When the flat stops and there is no cross over it should become more straight forward/second nature. I will aim to add them on the morning of racing, after I have added the odds in.



Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

37 Responses

  1. Josh has posted this one up on the freepost,3.25 Uttoxeter Wizards Sliabh from the always in form stable FOB.This is one that they hold in high regard,was very consistent last year,has been pitched in at a high level for seasonal debut,I think as usual market support would be signifigant as was the case with Poetic Rhythm on Sunday.Whatever she does tomorrow she could be worth following this season

  2. If Heineken did micros where it was Frankie Dettori mounts where he has one or two rides at a meeting, we would have had 3 from 3 this week inc a 7/1 winner.

    1. Well done on the football yesterday, Martin. I had a treble on Basel, Man U and Roma based on your recommendations and it very nearly came off but for the Chelsea equaliser. 38-1 too.

      1. Yes that equaliser was a killer. I was hoping Lazio would shut up shop when they took the lead but the current Italian style is to play more openly at club level. The Man U and Basel double paid 6/1 and my trixie made a small profit. I will suggest bet type in future as just a guide.

  3. Someone mentioned Nicky Richards form in October i believe a few days back….has one at 12s tomorrow and a bumper runner too….

    Hello Fellas
    He has a good strike rate and record at the track. It might be worth a small e/w

    Mind you, Tom Lacy’s in the race went off 1/2 on his p2p debut so better was clearly expected there so he’d rate the danger for me

      1. Good Martin, i am on…some early money on him…Presume better is expected than his last two starts.

        Josh, i note on your Jump strategies, they are purely H’cap hurdles and h’cap chases unless stated otherwise. You have a Nicky Richards strategy on +90s out at Carlisle which is 9 bets, 3 wins AE 2.68….Whilst i presume as this is a novice hurdle that figure won’t be quite the same (could be much worse) i am hoping its not tooooo bad when including novices! He’s 10/1 so worth a shot anyhow

        1. Yep, all the stats in section 1 based on stats packs are handicaps only, bar odd NHF 1st time out.. Richards is 2/4,4p places with non handicappers running at Carlisle after 60+ days off… including one at 10/1! He can ready them when he wants. Not a race type I play in…I’d be a tad concerned that he was well fancied in a couple of his bumpers but ran poorly. But, no doubt he has strengthened up. This trip around here may be ideal… I wouldn’t be worried if he stays around this price (money a bonus..the other 3 quals have been very short), suspect a drift would be a sign of what’s to come.. but then what I know about Novice hurdlers isn’t really worth knowing! 🙂

  4. Again no winners today with the NH unexposed trip movers, a couple tomorrow:

    4.20 Carlisle – Sapphire Noire 8/1
    5.00 Uttoxeter – Ballybrowneybridge 14/1

    Running P&L -5 pts

    SN looks interesting, trainer does well at the track – 40% win s/r (6/15) over the last 2 years. 3 1/2 furlong move tomorrow hasnt shown much so far but is seeing some early money.

  5. 15.15 Carlisle

    A fascinating chase race for this early in the season and we have 4 profile runners in the race.

    SILVER TASSIE – may still be a little high in the weights as a record of 0 wins from 13 runs when racing off a mark of 131+ shows. Prefer to wait for mark to drop before getting involved with this one.

    CARRIGDHOUN – loves this track (4 wins from 8 starts) but has yet to win in 15 attempts on soft or heavy ground. The horse won this race last year but this is a far better renewal

    BALLYBEN – won well at Perth the first time he has won after a break and he is from a stable that likes to leave something to work on and could improve again. Stays well and the strong pace may well suit him Goes well here: 132, ground is not an issue and when racing in October: 13131.

    I JUST KNOW – unlike a lot from the stable goes well fresh and he seems to have a very strongprofile for this race. Chase runs – 31 days+: 11P1. Class 3 and below: 11221, 1 to 11 runners: 21121, undulating/very undulating tracks: 11.

    There is one fly in the ointment and that is Vic De Touraine as the stable can get her chasers ready after a break of 151 days+: 29 from 150 (+62.92 points). However would like to see that the horse stays this far and stable have not had a winner in last 180 days.

    On the profiles this looks between I JUST KNOW and BALLYBEN (a friend who likes speed ratings just favours I JUST KNOW and I have to agree) If I JUST KNOW can get into a lead He may take some catching. Looking at Geegeez speed maps he may well be able to do that (other pace coming from Alderbrook Lad and Carrigdhoun).

    Selection – I JUST KNOW
    Danger – Ballyben

    1. GL David, that chase defeated me a bit as per free post… well, none of the likely contenders were prices I wanted to dive in at. I Just Know looked short enough/the right price, at 7/2, but my judgement is questionable at that end and I like to make a case for anything 6s/7s +… I was a bit perturbed but how poorly most of Smith’s ran at Wetherby yesterday…in fairness most may have future targets in mind and if this one is A1 he has a good chance of making all. I thought Venetia’s horse had the most interesting ‘could be anything’ profile- could have stacks in hand if relishing the trip and if fit.. those two IFs made 4/1, 9/2 short for me.
      We shall see, GL with him, with any luck one of those in Section 1 above goes in, as yet I don’t have a penny on the race, I can feel the splinters!

      I did wonder why Danny Cook was at Uttoxeter and not Carlisle, given that is a decent pot… I like Brooke so no issues on him at a jock, just an odd one from a trainer behaviour angle… had better see what cook is riding there today!

      GL Josh

      1. I fancy Federici I got 10/1 last night.
        His current mark is just to good to ignore and conditions to suit on top of it I am big W Kennedy fan. The price dropped badly now but I got a feeling that it will drift before the race as there is quite a few horses where the money will be surely going.

        1. Yep I can see why you had a go at 10s, was hoping he may be around that price this morning.. 6s about right/getting on short side for me… esp with the fitness question/McCain’s record with chasers 60+ days at the track. Clearly won’t fall of my seat if he wins this, and out stays them… him and Venetia’s interesting from a handicap mark perspective. GL

    2. thanks for that david i agree with everything your saying there , will be backing both but i hope ballyben wins as it’s a better price , a decent sort of race for carlisle on a thursday .

    3. Excellent summary David , thanks. My eye was drawn to Miss V Williams horse, its nearly November, its soft, unexposed hcap chaser making seasonal debut. Back it. She has a good overall record at this track, and i could only find 1 runner in previous 5 years at this meeting, which won. I dont know what to think of the jockey bookings, Wayne Hutchinson on this one, Treadwell and Deutch both at Uttox. If Coleman was on i would feel more confident. Take your point about trip and fitness Josh, but as i say this is Venetia , its soft ground and its nearly November . I would like to see some money for it though before i play in what looks a difficult puzzle of a race. Good luck

      1. GL James, ah Treadwell and Charlie are at Uttox, that is interesting… Coleman rides a lot less for her now that he rides plenty more for JP over here when no BG, and more for Jonjo generally. Not sure who her main go to jockey is now really, albeit any time she books Aidan then clearly a good sign…
        Oh, I think the unexposed nature on the trip is a positive, and I am not too fussed about fitness..will be fit enough if they want him to be/they have been able to train them normally at home… simply all in context of the price- didn’t think 9/2, 4/1, overly generous. Won’t fall of my seat if he bolts up! And then post race go…ah, he won like a 6/4 shot! But, that’s how I look at these things. I know I will lose consistently over time in 3m+ handicap chases backing under 6/7s.

        1. Well he was the fly in the ointment – clearly showed he stayed this far and could have a good season in staying chasers. I Just Know ran really well and the way he tried to rally suggests that he was fit enough here and there will be more races to be won with him this season. Ballyben was very poor.

          1. Was surprised how well Boric ran,more so trainers ability to ready after a break but small numbers and it’s that time of year. Think a nose victory may justify tipping him at 4s,who knows. I just know… maybe he got his second wind but the market weakness and no cook would say to me that he could come on bundles. You could see him having fun around Aintree. His jumping is superb and he will in a few from the front. Decent mid week fare.

  6. Morning Josh

    As a newly returned member and having decided on the following strategies (Flat – S3 and S6, Jumps – S2 and S3, I am finding the new symbols very helpful indeed. Thankyou. I might well in time add other strategies but for now an looking to build a working bank and so have opted for just a few options.

    Really good stuff on here.

    1. Morning Mark,
      Ah good to hear, yep hopefully it helps… helps me also- does save some time/reassurance/stops any muddled confusion between Flat/jumps etc.

      That sounds like a sensible approach to me, you have to do what makes you comfortable etc and as I always say, there is plenty/ample time to add other strategies, build up banks, stakes etc. S2 for jumps will cover most of the S1s.. but if there is one I would consider adding in at some point it would be that.. as then you have a ratings pointer angle in there also… whereas S2/3 ‘just’ rely on my stats, if that makes sense… or you can use S1 as basis for any subjective analysis say.
      If you have an adequate bank/patience, you will do just fine. S2 is still performing a fair way above historical average so there should be a hit at some point. Hopefully when that comes, ES steps in etc. Or I can keep ticking over with my ‘notes’ .. in theory everything should keep repeating over time.
      GL Josh

  7. Today’s tracker horses

    3.15 Carlisle
    I Just know
    All three feature in David peats horse profile article.
    Looking at them ( i just know ) might not like the track.
    Ballyben carrigdhoun meet again today but carrighoun i feel will fair much better today the ground while not ideal is a plus and he is better off at the weights.
    Carrington is my pick of the three.

    15.25 uttoxeter no hassle hoff
    16.50 return to base
    Both of these feature in the jumpers to follow post and from the write ups the expectation is big things from both

    14:10 Carlisle miss grass
    This was a strategy qualifier a week or so ago that won but may of got overlooked by many. Today she is up 6lb in weight but the trip will suit.
    Place maybe.

    14:30 Brighton hey player
    Trainer in good form. going is a little unknown but that’s the case for most in the race. Trip won’t be an issue.

    15:05 Carlisle crystal sunstone.
    Josh has already done a much better job than I ever could with his write up.

  8. DREAM TEAM which i am well over +100 level stakes up with has given INNISFREE LAD
    that have backed @ 100-1 on bet365, by the way is anyone else using dream team?

  9. Race Trace today – I would normally look for a better ratio than 5/11 but Elliott has won the race 5 times in the last 6 years so Outlander looks worth a bet at 9/2.

    4.10 5-11 +£12.10
    Gordon Elliott 1-1-12-14-12F-25………………Outlander

    1. He also does well on his reappearance…hasnt finished out side the first two. Not betting in the race but he is probably a tentative pick

    1. What is dream team? was that Matt’s free trainer/jockey/combo report you discussed before? Nope, can’t say I am, if that’s what you are talking about… enough on here to keep busy 🙂 Is that down to a few biggies going in?

      1. Yes it was free with GG trainer and jockey combo had six winning months from December to May then three losing months certain combos now not relevant Ian Williams/Jamie Spencer after some poor rides Ian said that he would never ride for him again,George Baker was down for two trainers up to his accident, all the best to George,Swinbank retired ,S Suroor Bentley does not get any rides,it as been an excellent freebie however could do with a revamp, now here is the cheeky bit Josh with your connection with Matt can you see if he will do an upgrade for RTP.

        1. Ah thought so… one correction to that update Colin… Alan Swinbank sadly passed away, suddenly I believe. Aged 72, a few months back.
          … oh I could do an update easily enough within HRB 🙂 With a few hours spare etc, albeit I definitely don’t have enough system slots to save them all.. and I am having fun with my jockey CD approach… just finding some for AW/Jumps for next research article in a few weeks.
          I am seeing him tonight in a London pub so will ask him!

  10. Punchestown looks good today indeed.

    Samcro could be the next machine out of sire Germany,….if he’s even close to as good as the other (Faugheen) he’ll be doing well. In that race my eye has been drawn to Crazyheart…not as a bet as hes 66s and theres 22 runners with only 3 places…stinge bags! He beat Minella Awards in a point and has some ok bumper form.his first two runs he he was beat by Thirsty Work and Last Goodbye, who have both turned out to be of a decent level. I’d be hopeful he’ll pick something along the way, but itll be about backing him on the right day as his trainer doesnt have a massive amount of winners each season.! The other i really think will win decent races is Jack Dillinger, he has been beaten in good maidens and also fell when in command at Down Royal. That was a poor event. For me, he needs upping in trip, he seems to finish well in his races and he’s a half bro to Mala Beach+ Bonny Kate….both proper boats! I will be watching him for handicap hurdles over further than 2m..he didnt make it as a reserve at the punchestown fez, a big pot, and i feel they are trying for somehting like that…

    3.10 is the only race i’ve punted in….I have to admit i think the head of the market Ben Dundee and Benkei are solid favourites…Ben Dundee has always been regarded, and with his owner moving him to elliot you can see why he’s gambled. Whilst Benkei is very well treated on his flat form. My pick is Oscars Den, It is quite tentative but he used to be a very good horse when with Tim the track for the best part of 3yrs, he has ran 2 very eyecatching runs, and one not so good one. His run behind persistent giving him almsot a stone is nice form over shorter than ideal. Today with crack apprentice Donal McInerney on board taking of 7, he runs off a very low weight over 2m4, with some give in the going. I think this is a race where he will run very well. I took 14s last night, he has been nibbled to 8s and you get 4 i think its worth a risk for all i can see a few with good chances.

    The two races after are great and should be watched. One is essentially the Lexus at Christmas!

    The bumper has a very well regarded store horse for giggy running Felix Desijy..I look forward to seeing him run as well.

  11. Money for Crystal Sunstone , 3.05, I was on last night at 20/1 based upon last time out and ES. A place will do.

    Nice run from Tiger Roll in the charity race. Looking fit for next March in the W**** H*****! PP gave me 33/1 NR no bet for £0 each way. I had to beg for the NR no bet though.

    1. No Martin, only a win will do n RTP towers! 🙂 Money is a good sign, I am expecting a decent run but he could just be moderate! We will soon find out.

  12. hi josh
    regarding dream team, started 1 december i point level, got to a high of + 210 level stakes on 21 may, 2 big BFSP winners of 78 and 41. results to 7 august= + 140 level, have noted further bets but not updated yet. a revamp would be nice, either by geegeez or yourself if not forthcoming from geegeez, rules to update will then be
    1) trainer and jockey combined at least once in 2017
    2) must have combined at least 25 times since jan 2013
    3) 25%+ win strike rate since jan 2013
    4) 40%+ place strike rate since jan 2013
    5} win profit of 20+ level since jan 2013

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