A nice 15/2 winner from ‘the notes’ on Wednesday, +5.5 points or so if backing all three. On we go…
3.15 Carlisle – NONE!
I think this is a race to just watch and enjoy, or probably throw £5 at something for entertainment! (mug) 🙂 I would be surprised if one of the top 5 in the market doesn’t win this, but everything feels as though it is the right price.
I Just Know… 7/2 seems short enough/maybe right… there is the fitness question s(won 1st time up last year), he does have to prove himself RH over fences (ok run MR) and I was baffled as to why Danny Cook isn’t riding, and is instead at Uttoxeter…hmmm. This one will try and make all and if fit, may well stay there. But I can live with it at 7/2. Were he 6s/7s, then you’d have a go for sure. Interesting jockey booking… I wonder if he may be used more when Cook isn’t free/elsewhere. Superb jockey is Brooke, esp from the front. Most of Smith’s needed the run at Wetherby yesterday, so some niggles there…
BallyBen.. he could take this, but is now open to attack from anything with more in hand. He got hammered for his last win, a bit unfairly really. But, his fitness/proven in conditions/track could count for plenty and make that weight rise irrelevant. But it is a question, and at 9/2 I wasn’t jumping up and down to dive in. He could win.
As could Carrigdhoun… what a grand old servant. Watching him win a few times last season warmed the heart… and improved the betting bank considerably on each occasion. I wouldn’t be shocked if he went close here as I suspect this has been the target. He will have needed the run the last day and needs this hill to slow everything down. He will race prominently and could take this. Him winning would be the best result, ’emotionally’ and I can cheer him home with no money on, esp at this price which again isn’t overly generous. It may be too soft but he hasn’t proved he cannot handle it with many previous tries in higher classes etc. No forlorn hope.
Federici… he has a chance but 6s doesn’t feel generous either given his form when last seen and the days off. McCain is only 2/29 with all handicappers returning 60+ days here, 0/13 in handicap chases…so there is a niggle there. This one will win a chase this season you would think and his mark is starting to look attractive. But again, at 6/1, I can live with it. I think conditions look fine but a sight niggle he may not want it soft over fences- unproven. That Hereford run niggles at me, but I think he did far too much up front that day, in a pace batter form flag fall. When you just ‘specialise’ in certain races you get better at ‘race re-call’ and I can still picture that race now, and how it fell apart. He may have been feeling it from his last run also. One to watch this season, if not going in today.
Finally… the best until last?… VIC De Touzaine is without doubt the most interesting looking one of those near the top. Maybe 9/2 is ok but I really need to stop tipping at less than 6s/7s, as that gives me the cover for being wrong- which I am plenty of times. More than I am right, obviously. He just ‘could be anything’ over this distance, in this ground, and is the one in here that could have a fair bit in hand. The trainer has a decent record longer term with her chasers here, and those returning after a break. Interesting jockey booking…not sure what has happened to Treadwell? I should check. But, Hutch is clearly decent. He is the one I am most interested in watching. He may not stay, he may not be fit. If he does stay, and is fit, he will go very close you suspect. But, given those questions/unknowns, I want 7s/8s+ really. Again, he can win at 4s, 9/2.
It would be just like me not to have mentioned the winner! But, I think it will be coming from those above. But nothing jumps out at the prices and I would be betting for the sake of it. I should be disciplined and I can watch these races just for entertainment, and with an eye to the future. Getting to know the pool of 3m+ , C3/4+ chases, is always useful for the future.
GL if you back anything, you will need it! 🙂
K Lee Chasers (12/1<)
4.50 Carl – Town Parks (x2 angles)
Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live Test
3.25 Uttox – Wizards Sliabh
4.50 Carl0 Town Parks (12/1<)
Nothing else today.