Free Daily Post: 19/10/17 (complete)

micros+ thoughts on 3.15, no tips…

A nice 15/2 winner from ‘the notes’ on Wednesday, +5.5 points or so if backing all three. On we go…

 

TIPS

3.15 Carlisle – NONE!

I think this is a race to just watch and enjoy, or probably throw £5 at something for entertainment! (mug) 🙂 I would be surprised if one of the top 5 in the market doesn’t win this, but everything feels as though it is the right price.

I Just Know… 7/2 seems short enough/maybe right… there is the fitness question s(won 1st time up last year), he does have to prove himself RH over fences (ok run MR) and I was baffled as to why Danny Cook isn’t riding, and is instead at Uttoxeter…hmmm. This one will try and make all and if fit, may well stay there. But I can live with it at 7/2. Were he 6s/7s, then you’d have a go for sure. Interesting jockey booking… I wonder if he may be used more when Cook isn’t free/elsewhere. Superb jockey is Brooke, esp from the front. Most of Smith’s needed the run at Wetherby yesterday, so some niggles there…

BallyBen.. he could take this, but is now open to attack from anything with more in hand. He got hammered for his last win, a bit unfairly really. But, his fitness/proven in conditions/track could count for plenty and make that weight rise irrelevant. But it is a question, and at 9/2 I wasn’t jumping up and down to dive in. He could win.

As could Carrigdhoun… what a grand old servant. Watching him win a few times last season warmed the heart… and improved the betting bank considerably on each occasion. I wouldn’t be shocked if he went close here as I suspect this has been the target. He will have needed the run the last day and needs this hill to slow everything down. He will race prominently and could take this. Him winning would be the best result, ’emotionally’ and I can cheer him home with no money on, esp at this price which again isn’t overly generous. It may be too soft but he hasn’t proved he cannot handle it with many previous tries in higher classes etc. No forlorn hope.

Federici… he has a chance but 6s doesn’t feel generous either given his form when last seen and the days off. McCain is only 2/29 with all handicappers returning 60+ days here, 0/13 in handicap chases…so there is a niggle there. This one will win a chase this season you would think and his mark is starting to look attractive. But again, at 6/1, I can live with it. I think conditions look fine but a sight niggle he may not want it soft over fences- unproven. That Hereford run niggles at me, but I think he did far too much up front that day, in a pace batter form flag fall. When you just ‘specialise’ in certain races you get better at ‘race re-call’ and I can still picture that race now, and how it fell apart. He may have been feeling it from his last run also. One to watch this season, if not going in today.

Finally… the best until last?… VIC De Touzaine is without doubt the most interesting looking one of those near the top. Maybe 9/2 is ok but I really need to stop tipping at less than 6s/7s, as that gives me the cover for being wrong- which I am plenty of times. More than I am right, obviously. He just ‘could be anything’ over this distance, in this ground, and is the one in here that could have a fair bit in hand. The trainer has a decent record longer term with her chasers here, and those returning after a break. Interesting jockey booking…not sure what has happened to Treadwell? I should check. But, Hutch is clearly decent. He is the one I am most interested in watching. He may not stay, he may not be fit. If he does stay, and is fit, he will go very close you suspect. But, given those questions/unknowns, I want 7s/8s+ really. Again, he can win at 4s, 9/2.

It would be just like me not to have mentioned the winner! But, I think it will be coming from those above. But nothing jumps out at the prices and I would be betting for the sake of it. I should be disciplined and I can watch these races just for entertainment, and with an eye to the future. Getting to know the pool of 3m+ , C3/4+ chases, is always useful for the future.

GL if you back anything, you will need it! 🙂

 

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

K Lee Chasers (12/1<)

4.50 Carl – Town Parks (x2 angles)

Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live Test

3.25 Uttox – Wizards Sliabh

4.50 Carl0 Town Parks (12/1<)

*

Nothing else today.

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

24 Responses

  1. James Bethell has a very healthy 31% strike rate with his older horses at Newcastle,has 3 runners tomorrow evening

    5.15 Thankyou Very Much 11/1
    5.45 Airton 18/1
    7.45 Belle De Layers 9/1

    The most interesting one is Airton ,has won twice here and looks to be best value of the trio,might be just better on artificial surfaces

  2. one that caught the eye is Hartside 14-1 2-10 Carlisle 5lb better off than when a very close 2nd over c/d on similar going back in February and should be fitter for his seasonal debut at Uttoxeter 16 days ago.

  3. A word of caution to anyone having a punt at Uttoxeter. Been raining steadily for an hour in Staffordshire after a damp and murky 12 hors before that, can’t imagine there will be any “Good” in the Going description come the “off”.

    As indicated in my morning e-mail to Special Offer Members; I am going today, so if anything jumps off the page once there and seen the conditions and especially if they really deteriorate will post it up on here later (signal permitting).

    Good Luck today

    1. Enjoy the trip to the races Ian, I was intrigued as to why Cook was there and not Carlisle…maybe expecting to make all on Dick Darsie in 4.30. I’m surprised he isn’t on one in the 3.15 Carlisle.

      1. Waiting to pick a friend up at Burton Railway Station, it is absolutely hosing it down and has been down in Tamworth since about 9am and can see a lot of non runners possibly.

        Will pay particular attention to Smith horses as will be interesting to see if she or Harvey are down here.

        Good job I’ve got my full length Mantracker Coat…”know your land know your prey” LOL…

  4. I am going with Ian and Josh for a follow up win for Derintoher Yank, 4.50 CAR, on at 10/1. Although up 9LB I think he can go well over fences. Minella Rocco. 4.10 PUN, banker at 2/1. One from Gary Priestley at 33/1, 5.15 NC, down to a mark of 90, trainer in form.

    Good luck.

    1. lets hope so Martin – good to see you got the price as I did mail very early this morning (around 7.30am) and always a risk some don’t get up in time to get best price. My only nagging doubt about him is if it gets too soft, but they don’t go too hard round there at best of times and WK is proving himself a good judge of pace.

      Good Luck!

      1. It is a tough chase debut for DY and so 10/1 is worth a stab but he needs to step up to be involved at the finish. Worth a go.

        1. Oh for sure, all about price that one… at least he is fit, and in form… hopefully he will try and make all, race there to be won from front… first 2/3 fences will tell us whether we will get run for money/how he jumps etc. Had to have a go at 10s, esp with DMs stats with novice handicap chasers here. GL

          1. I have a saver on DY my bet in this race is Dubai Angel. Inform Racing Top3 rated but top on C&D and Ability and form.
            We shall see.

            Mike

          1. Given a lovely ride again I thought Martin and clearly race fitness and confidence helped, will keep a close eye on as could may be go up in trip or back to hurdles if handicapper as expected clobbers it – yard can get them out quickly if right race comes along! Nice to have a winner after a frustrating few days with dire racing and very little to aim at!

  5. Football – Not so confident today, but Arsenal may be value circa evens, but they can play too open in these type of matches as we know. Everton are shaky at present and so 2/1+ Lyon may be worth a stab. Lazio away to Nice may be worth a go at 2/1+.

    Good luck.

  6. With conditions deteriorating and soft ground form likely to be to the fore I’ve had a small each way double and each way singles (coins not notes!!!) on

    Uttoxeter 3.55 5 Mustmeetalady at 33/1 out and out stayer, probably most likely in field to enjoy a slog and at least experienced yielding over this trip in P2P period in Irelands

    Uttoxeter 5.00 fancied 2 but think Red Admirable will need run and drier so No 14 Taroum, who I am told by a reliable source with me who is regular paddock watcher, has soft form and huge feet (like paddles he says) and who is one of the few in here race fit and proven in soft.

    1. Peter, he’s the one i will be watching certainly…more of interest to me when upped in trip…missed the cut in a big punchestown handicap hurdle in April….Pedigree is focused on stayers, with Mala Beach and Bonny Kate in there.

        1. Agreed Jack Dillinger is by Westerner out of an Old Vic mare
          and Mind’s Eye is by Stowaway out of a Bobs return mare
          so both will be suited to a step up in trip.
          Jack is a 6 year old so I guess they wont keep him at 2 miles next time
          Ruby gave Jack every chance by being well up with the pace
          and keen to see him over 3mile plus with a bit of cut

          Mind’s eye is only 5 and looks a great prospect think 2m4f next time will be ideal
          I think he has a bit more class than Jack.

          Samcro did look very impressive and had far to much toe against stayers
          will be interesting to see him up in class against two mile specialists as he
          may be over bet next time on the back of todays run as the press and public are always looking for the next wonder horse.

          I looked at his old bumper form
          and while he won two in a canter when he went into listed class he only won a neck
          The horse looked a superstar today but I would be happy to play e/w against him if he was 1/4 in a novice hurdle carrying a penalty in a decent race against one of Willie Mullins stars.

          1. Peter, agree with the most of that….probably only the last bit i wouldnt be sure on! He looks an absolute machine. Only way to bet in his races is probably e/w against so you’re right there! He will win all over the winter and then the test will come in March for me..

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