TIPS
none. ‘We’ all bumped into one on Tuesday and when a handicap blot job wins like that at 5/1>6/1, like a 1/2 shot, you always wonder whether you could have done more. I was happy to leave him at that price in the morning given this was his first ‘proper’ chase, with a big field etc. I was banking on that inexperience of such conditions catching him out. Sadly, he relished all conditions and, much like Nicholls’ Summer Plate winner (who had a very similar profile- but 12/1 and far more annoying!) he fairly bolted up. I’m confident were he 8s+ i’d have landed on him, but he still won as if massive value. Hindsight is wonderful of course. That ‘prep’ run over hurdles did jump out at me more after the race- protecting his chase mark there while keeping him ticking over- clever. Happy enough with the analysis on him, albeit the two selections were a bit poor.
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MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES
Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live Test
3.45 Exet- Moorlands Jack (9/1<)
5.00 Worc – Sissinghurst (12/1< guide)
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Nothing else today. GL with any bets,
Josh
23 Responses
Its Thursday at Chelmsford and the offerings are low grade.In the 8.45 Richard Guest is represented by Outlaw Torn,what draws me in is trainers high strike rate at the course and has been in good form recently after quiet period,there really isn’t any point reading into form in these types of races,the 20/1 with WH and Ladbrokes will do me
don’t know what it is but Archie Meade (4-45 Thurles) has stuck in my mind think i must have been watching his last race at Ballinrobe when u/r when running a good race , anyway a bit of shrapnel at 40-1 won’t break the bank and at least i won’t be kicking myself if he runs a stormer.
I noticed it too Martin…..put him on my trackerb but not really sure why except he was going well….so, yes!.. a abit of. ;shrapnel’…
Tony Mc
Favourite winner of the week yesterday at Towcester.
in the bumper “Raving Bonkers”
Connections obviously have a sense of humour so hope they do well.
Can land lock luke be trusted today after running out last season with the race won. He could be well handicapped
A wash out for me yesterday but on we go today. In alphabetical order by course:
Ayr – they race on the NH course and so may not be as heavy as real heavy? Low level bets on Royal Holiday, 2.30, based upon Mrs Fife having reasonable stats at the course. Also in the 3.05 The Kings Steed is put up by Gary Priestley as one who may be suited to the course and is sliding down the handicap.
Chelmsford – Not much. The Prescott runner in the 9.15 fits the profile but not at the price for me.
Exeter – In the 3.15 I will go with The Nick Williams & Lizzie Kelly over hurdles angle I like with After Eight Sivola. However in an open race I also like Samson and down the bottom Trans Express. In the 3.45 I like MR Medic in this class, on at 7/2. I too hope Leg Lock Luke can behave in the 5.20 and get over the line first.
Worcester – I too like Lambeau Field (Home of the Green Bay Packers) in the 2.20. I understand Nicky Henderson intends to campaign Kings Ryde (Anyone remember the original Kings Ryde over hurdles?) at 3 miles and so he goes up in distance in the 4.30 and would need to take this to move on to better things. Yes Sissinghurst looks obvious in the 5.00.
Good luck.
I remember watching Fionavon win the national so yes I do remember Kings Ryde
Harry Fry is the man to watch this season has two today but both are odds on which
took me by surprise a bit.
Skelton and Fry are both ex Nicholls men so they have the background
when you see the next head lad from Nicholls, Henderson, Hobbs Mullins etc
set up on their own just back their first 50 runners blind because they want to hit the ground running
and they usually have the leg up from their old boss and rich owners and horses who would be 5/4 with Nicholls go off bigger until the bookies catch on after 50 or so races
if the trainer does well, as they should, the prices quickly come into line
The latest guy(although not with a big trainer) was Ollly Murphy
Set off like a scalded cat and was way ahead on level stakes profits
now the prices have shortened and the winners have tailed off a bit
You have to be in before it is noticeable in this game.
non handicappers who win get penalties
and handicappers find it harder to win off every increasing ratings
so all small stable who has a purple patch will then go through a slump when their handicappers
are rated above their ability after a couple of wins and their non handicappers
are either burdened with penalties or have to go up in grade
Oi Oi, just seen the results! As well as singles I also had £2 cross trebles, so the best one so far (25/1, 16/1 and 7/2 ) pays £3,825 plus doubles with a non runner plus Leg Lock Luke still to go. Drinks are on me!!!!
Cheers Martin, was a longish post but glad i read it. Top man
Leg Lock Luke could not do it! Still 4 winners, a non runner and 4 losers for £2 cross doubles pays a lot and with singles on some pays handsomely. #Happy days but I have likely buggered my Bet365 limits.
Cross trebles I mean.
Having a flick through the Chelmsford card and ikymasho in the 7.35 looks a bit overpriced at 12/1 it’s ran in better fields than this. Thoughts anyone.!
Ickymasho needs at least 10F which this is. He goes in the 7.15. I hear a strong word for Boynton in this race, but as always selections are price dependent.
Sorry my bad.
Right horse, wrong time lol.
One to watch for today….
Linkenholt 2.45 Exeter
Oliver Sherwood horse who ran nowhere in 2 bumpers last year….the first won by Cause Toujours (may well end up at Cheltenham next year) and the second at Kempton where the front 4 home could be anything.
The interesting part is that in the Warwick race, the runner up (Book Of Gold) is a stable mate and had some big stable horses well beaten behind, and I remember reading before the race something along the lines of the yard couldn’t split them.
You’d have to be thinking today is an education with the small worry that they have a tool in the mould of Deputy Dan and dare I say it MC. If that’s the case though you’d have expected to see a more prominent performance in either of the bumpers, although there be n number of reasons for those.
66-1 not surprising with no evidence other than the yard reports the horse goes well at home (but always has, even before the washout bumpers) , but don’t be surprised to see both this one and Book Of Gold playing in C3 and above at some point in the next few years.
A ‘good’ result today will see Linken show some ability and weaken heavily over the last 2, or just be settled nowhere in it for an obvious educational run.
Good Luck Steve
Sounds very much like a horse I have a very small stake in too with Oliver Sherwood called Versifier. A nice little mare who followed a similar path in NHFlat and who ran over hurdles a few times last winter with a modicum of success. They need to find the right trip and Going with her, but the one thing the yard give them is time.
I note that Leighton Aspell rides and he is the perfect pilot, in that if it has a chance he will give his utmost to get best position, but, he also has the brains and experience to pull up; or hold back, as and when a young horse comes to the end of its tether.
Can’t speak too highly of the yard and the way owners; however small the share; are treated.
Thx Ian Ah Versifier…a Yeats mare that would also make it on to a ‘ones to watch’ post. Let’s hope we’re all on when the right day comes!
Settled out the back for an education as expected. Could be seen running fairly powerfully to my eye going to around 3 out without actually overtaking anything.
The perfect run! Remains in the Notebook to hopefully get decent odds somewhere in next 2/3 runs.
I am not an “inside info” guy as 99.9% of it is clap-trap, but I can hand on heart say that I am reliably told that Oliver is delighted with her, she has really strengthened up over the summer and they are looking for a race before the end of October – so lets hope we don’t get a mini heat wave! Regards
the jockey riding leg lock luke mitchell bastyan seems to have quite a good strike rate over the last 14 days does anyone know much about him as he is riding for tizzard this afternoon
the next up and coming big thing by all accounts, well he is making a name for himself- he is attached to Evan Williams yard… def one to watch, esp in any decent handicaps etc. Suspect he may win the odd nice handicap hurdle for his boss/others, or even chases. Certainly wouldn’t be put off my him and if anything mark up.. still learning though..should have won the bumper at Ludlow, slight tactical error there. Will need all his skill on that horse mind!! GL
sorry josh was you refering to leg lost luke when you said he will need all of his skills
Yep, he is a tricky bugger it seems, as 0/11 career stats to date would indicate- has his own ideas…wouldn’t be shocked if he responded for Mitch though, seems to have magic hands!