Free Daily Post: 05/10/17 (complete)

TIP! / write up + micros for now…

 

TIPS

4.25 Warwick- Ballycross – 2 point win –  7/2 (general) UP 9/4

Ah bollocks… well, that’s the last of silly price season.  I won’t be celebrating beating that price. Winner drifted to 14s, then back in to 13/2 which sounded an alarm- was clearly a1 here- not sure if Sam has done too much up front- but given I thought he lacked some gears I won’t complain, thought may just pull away turning in. Pleased I have got that price shambles out the way early on in the season! Moving on. 

 

God help us all as I dive in with my maximum ‘tipping’ stake (2 points) on a 7/2 shot. Gulp. I do think this may still be 1 point too big and it is likely he goes off favourite here. The more I stared at this race, the more he jumped out at me. I just kept thinking that if there is one horse in here who could demolish this field, it is him. My head and gut aligned, and in I have gone, head first. We know how this usually ends!

Any members/backers of my Twister angles may have been on at bigger prices last night, I think there was some 5s available. Alas I have missed that, but as I said in my dodgy ‘top of the market’ judgement, there is still a shade of value in this. You have to be backing horses at a bigger price than you think they should be, and I think this one should probably be 5/2 fav.

The case, or ‘the logic’ ,as my rather impressive tipping friends SP2A would say, is this..

Firstly, it is ‘twister time’ (i’ve borrowed that phrase from my good pal Ben Aitken,i’m sure he won’t mind) and there are no fitness concerns. That will not be an excuse. If they want him fit enough to win here today, he will be. I have fitness concerns over a few of the others, which is another reason why I found myself being rather bullish.

Secondly.. he has the most exciting profile of any horse in this race. He is lightly raced over fences and surely this is the season he comes into his own. He has run in some decent races, especially the latter two at Chepstow.. decent in the sense that they have both produced numerous winners that he was either in front of, or just behind. And he ran well there. He is entitled to have learnt from that experience. Indeed with any luck simply a repeat of those Chepstow efforts should be enough to see him go close here. I couldn’t help notice that they then pitched him into some rather hot chases- probably a bit too soon given his inexperience- but surely a sign that they must like him.

His jumping was suspect at times last year- which you can forgive a young chase. In this small field, where he should be able to measure his fences, there really will be no excuse. STD also rides for the first time in 6 runs, and without doubt he is the best jockey that has ridden him to date. That experience should really help the horse. He usually races prominently which I want in a chaser. I think he is likely to stay much further than this in time, and as such they must make plenty of use of him. He will be fitter than a few of these and I hope they try and run them into submission.

I am expecting it all to click today and for him to show that he has a bit in hand over fences.

He just ticks a lot of boxes and when combined with my thoughts on the rest, I had to dive in really. Maybe it will prove to be foolish but I can live with this particular shorty letting me down, as it is as confident I can be with this type really, in a small field.

My confidence also stems from an assessment of the rest…

Sego Success.. too short for one who usually needs the run and may prefer it softer. A repeat of that Bangor run may put him in the mix and if a1 could give me plenty to think about. But he was 11/4, 3/1 when looking and given those questions that was just short enough. He is relying on not bumping into anything younger/more progressive also. Mainly a price based decision, clearly I won’t fall off my seat if he wins.

Shanroe Santos… the main danger if fully wound up but I am guessing as to his fitness on his return. I don’t know if he will or won’t be fit enough over fences after 173 days off. That combined with the fact the trainer is 0/5,0p in the last two weeks (some of them fancied well enough) was enough to put me off… at the price! 4/1 didn’t seem overly generous given the fitness niggle. He may also want it softer and is usually held up. I don’t mind that if I can get a price, but not at 4s. Happy for him to beat me, which he may well do.

Lofgren… little evidence that he stays this trip and his last three runs don’t suggest he will appreciate further. If he had winning chase form over 20-21f I would be more concerned, but he doesn’t. He has yet to prove he wants much further than 17f and on that basis I will leave him. He is slightly more exposed than the selection also. Maybe this trip will see him in a new light and I have read his recent runs incorrectly. After all, he hasn’t proved he cant’t stay this trip as it is his first go at it over fences. But a niggle. I have left him. Hard to say he is in great form either.

No Buts- well he usually needs the run and this 9 year old will have to pull out something special to take this you feel.

Beggars Cross.. well he has a fitness question like most in here and he does look a C4 animal. He needs a career best on his return and while he has won chases, I don’t think his chase form matches those Chepstow placed efforts of the selection. A few niggles but he is lightly enough raced over fences so you never fall of your seat when this type pops up- but I was happy to leave. He doesn’t have the ‘could be anything’ factor that I think the selection possess.

Long Lunch.. that leaves this boy, who I was happy to leave also. That could be dangerous given the form Longsdon has been in but the horse didn’t show any form the back end of last season and has something to prove. He is 0/5,1p in handicaps after 60+ days off and as such has a fitness question/concern. He also does look better over shorter albeit that Donny run suggests he does stay- and in this small field may well get away with it. I do think there are stouter stayers in here but if he is fit and this turns into a relative ‘sprint’ he may be no forlorn hope. He is also usually held up out the back also, and will have to close on the leaders at some point if adopting usual tactics. Given the questions.. recent form,fitness,stamina question, tactics.. I thought 6/1 wasn’t overly generous. I’d want a few points bigger myself.

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So, that’s the lot.

I have gone for the one who without doubt looks the most exciting and if there is one chaser in here to follow after this race, that may make further progress, it can only be him. Today is the day to step up a gear. Let’s hope he does.

PACE… Sego Success can make all, or be held up. Interesting what they do with him. He would be dangerous to leave alone and dictate a steady gallop as that could let him get away with not being 100% fit. If they don’t lead.. well No Buts can, if good enough/sharp enough to stay there, but again he isn’t consistent… Ballycross.. well he races up there.. I wouldn’t be shocked if STD is aggressive with him… he stays further and the best place to get into a jumping rhythm is at the head of the field with no horses in front of you. We shall see. But he should track any pace and if good enough there won’t be an excuse.

An interesting little contest. I can live with any of the others winning at their current odds,(and you wouldn’t be shocked if any one of 5/6 went close) based on how I view these things. If Ballycross wins this well, I would have been annoyed had I not put him up at what could look a decent enough price come 4.35. If he doesn’t go close, justify the support at these odds, maybe I will never back any 3m+ chaser under 9/2, 11/2, ever again! No pressure.

Good luck.

Josh

 

 

 

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Trainer/jockey combo – live test

3.05 Hunt – Tangolan (12/1< guide)

4.10 Hunt – Sissinghurst (12/1< guide)

3.40 Hunt – Matchaway (12/1<)

K Lee Chasers

3.40 Hunt – Matchaway (12/1<)

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

24 Responses

  1. John Best has 3 worth a look at Chelmsford tomorrow night
    7.45 Malt Teaser 14/1
    8.15 Luxford 10/1
    9.15 Banta Bay 14/1
    Should he keep up his strike rate here of 18%,then 6+ shots should be profitable longterm,not one to go mad on,but should tick over nicely during winter months

      1. Not sure Chris,this year he has used a lot of different jockeys and they all seem to have performed well,Malt teaser has been backed into 6 so that migh be the live one today

  2. Wetherby’s who oversee/police all Horse Registrations are usually really on the ball but Chris Gordon has a runner in the 5.15 at Huntingdon tomorrow which seems a bit too close for comfort. Lets hope the RUK/Course announcer is on the ball. I assume you pronounce it “canute”…

    1. The commentator on ITV had great fun with Grand Koonta this summer. She was a N/R a couple of times and he seemed really relieved than he finally had to commentate on her a couple of weekends ago.

  3. Lady Of Petra Chelmsford City Thursday 17:45 1pt e/w (use Corals/Lads if you have it as they pay 4 places)-Looks to have come out of a hot race. (the winner destroyed a class 4 field by 4 lengths with a penalty; 2nd won a class 2 off a mark of 80; 3rd won NTO with a horse rated 71 6 lengths behind; 6th won a class 2 by 5 lengths) She looked competitive until fading in the final furlong so the drop back to 6f should suit. Also drops down into a class 6 and makes her handicap debut off a lowly mark of 60. Josephine Gordon rides Chelmsford well which I thought was a plus (particularly recently 4/17,8p +15.5)

    Deauville Dancer Huntingdon Thursday 14:00 1pt e/w His 2nd to Adrastos (who went close in a class 2 off 7lbs higher NTO) is arguably the best piece of recent form on offer. That was in a class 3 and he drops back into a class 4 for the first time since his facile 12 length win in June. He is 112 in 3 class 4 handicap chases and 1/1 at the track. Trainer has a very solid 3/10, 7p record in handicap chases at the track so he rarely sends anything here which runs badly. Should be able to race prominently and despite the fact he is yet to win at the distance I am fairly certain he stays going on his hurdle form. Without going through them all most of the field have some sort of questions to answer and 10/1 looked overpriced.

    Have also thrown some e/w shrapnel at Levante Player in the opener at Lingfield given Dascombe is 4/10,7p with handicap debutants at the track in the past 5 years and its Kingscote’s only ride for his boss at the track before he moves to Chelmsford.

    I have looked at the 3m class 3 chase at Warwick and am personally stumped so will leave that one for Josh to figure out.

    1. I have heard some good words for Lady of Petra in terms of improvement from its last run. I am on at 10/1.

    2. Think we can all be happy with DD there Nick.. may have had a top up on my ‘notes’ stake after reading your confidence! Superb ride, just saw that out- Hughes judged to perfection. Brilliant.

      1. You actually made me doubt myself about him staying after your comments on the Members side mate but his best class 3 run was over 2m4f so I think that was more class than the trip. Did feel like at worst we were getting was a place turning in but he did that well in the end since Royal Plaza is meant to be a half decent yardstick.

        Almost a shame I am off on holiday on Saturday for two weeks given it seems to be going far too well at the moment. Another £100 for the No.1 strategy kitty on top of my bet as well.

        1. Oh yea he hit #1 also haha- my flat/jumps brain crossing over there- in any case I ended up with the right amount on him- covered in all corners both on here and Members..
          Yep, well I did doubt his stamina and I thin Hughes has won that- a more aggressive rider I reckon he may just get collared.. point is that you can doubt at 10/1+, he hadn’t proved he couldn’t stay this trip over fences- they are different disciplines – and i’ll go back and look but my view was he wasn’t seeing trip out fully over hurdles- maybe that was class as you say. In any case, no bother!

  4. a quick personal update on sp2a trial, all results rounded up/down to nearest 1/4 point.
    SPECULATE 2 ACCUMULATE
    starting bank 100pts
    22/09 staked 4pts returns 0 bank 96
    23/09 staked 4 returns 2 bank 94
    26/09 staked 6 returns 13.25 bank 101.25
    27/09 staked 4 returns 1.75 bank 99
    29/06 staked 6 returns 0 bank 93
    30/09 staked 3 returns 5 bank 95
    01/10 staked 2 returns 19 bank 114
    02/10 staked 3 returns 2 bank 113
    03/10 staked 3 2eturns 1 bank 111
    04/10 staked 2 returns 14 bank 123
    staked 39 returns 62 bank +23 roi 59%

    i know this is a small sample but it is looking very good let’s hope it continues 🙂

    1. Thanks Martin that is most helpful. Now that the Offer period is closed and all are aboard; I will be sending out in the next couple of days more detailed Staking Plan and Betting Bank approach (Guidance only) and also we will be reiterating the Full Money Back Offer Guarantee Terms, just so that there is no ambiguity.

      I know there is an ongoing debate between “win only” and “each way” betting and the 3 months will be an interesting litmus test of that, and also between “advised stakes” and “SP/BSP” so I plan to produce month end and cumulative stats for Win and E/W (when advised in the morning e-mail) and also for Advised and SP – so that we can get a 360 degree perspective of how things are going.

      We have had a very small number of email delivery issues to AOL and a few to Hotmail so if anyone who has purchased the SPECIAL OFFER is not getting mails please let me and/or Josh know. I am going to be loading all emails on to the “GetResponse” platform that Josh uses over the weekend and once done will e-mail out the aforementioned Betting Bank / Staking Plan and when due Results Updates. (GetResponse seems to be better than the YMLP system that we have used for the past 6 years).

      Finally, a big thank you again to all who have joined and for the feedback and a reminder that you also have access codes to collect tips directly from SP2A website.

      Lets hope we can keep on beating the Bookies!

      Regards

      Ian

      1. Brazil go to La Paz Tonight(9pm uk time) and I think they are priced up on their form else where

        With most of the Bolivians playing for altitude based teams they will have a big edge on the Brazilians
        who mostly come from the European leagues.
        They have had long flights,a short get together time and very little acclimatisation
        they have already won the group by a mile so they are not desperate for the points.

        Anywhere else but La paz Brazil would be winning by 3 or more goals but
        The Bolivians are a different team at their 3600 meters stadium in La Paz and their players will be
        really up for a game against the continents best team.

        Obviously the class of Brazil could overcome these problems and
        if they get the first goal they could win but the prices Bolivia 16/5 Brazil 10/11
        seem out of line in the circumstances

        I see it a 50/50 match.
        Bolivia beat Argentina 2-0 in a game the Argentians were desperate for the points
        so against Brazil, who are not going to be 100% revved up
        You are backing the class of Brazil against the altitude advantage and the passion of the Bolivians.
        Class usually tells but there is a price for every thing
        I think 7/4 Bolivia 7/4 brazil and 5/2 the draw are the true odds
        making Bolivia the play.

        on Betfair Bolivia are 3.1 with draw no bet and I think that is a very solid bet

        1. I agree re lay Brazil, as they have already qualified for Russia and no one likes a trip to La Paz. The same can be said for Uruguay who go to Caracas, which is not such an altitude issue, but at odds on is worth a lay. Finally Germany have already qualified and Northern Ireland have secured second place in the group. The Irish are strong at home and although they should be outclassed by the Germans the 1/4 may be worth a lay?

          Good luck.

          1. Northern Ireland are very competitive at home and while the Germans
            are streets ahead on class they will be going into the Lions den.

            The one thing that makes 1/4 look very skinny is the fact the Irish
            will not go into the match thinking they are going to lose before they start
            they will give everything and will really put it to the Germans
            what side the Germans put out will be interesting.

            Brazil look set to rest a few top players and while reserves may be more up for it
            than players who are first team regulars in the effort to impress the manager to make the squad for Russia
            There is a chance that with lots of changes the team may be a bit disjointed
            A check just before the kick off to review the teams may be worth while
            bet365 stream the match live so a 9pm kick off doesn’t leave you staying up to 4am to get the result.

            Argentina should beat Peru but they seem extremely short as they are struggling for form
            and Peru are on the crest of a wave.

            If Argentina get a goal in the first half an hour they should relax and win easily
            but if the Peruvians are still level the pressure will build
            Argentina go to Ecuador at high Altitude Quito in their last game so there will be sweaty palms
            if they are struggling to break down Peru
            if they get desperate the could be open on the break tonight
            as Peru are very good counter attacking

      2. Definitely one of those days that vindicates the each way “if you can’t win don’t lose” mantra today with Generous Chief (2nd) + Veiled Secret (3rd) both advised at 14/1 picking up some place shrapnel to keep the Bookies from taking too much of accumulated profit back. Shame Fitzwilly couldn’t just nick the 4th place spot with SkyBet but a day when in the bigger scheme of things it is good to get out unscathed with a bit of loose change in profit. Onwards and Upwards.

        Lovely win for Dreamsoftheatre – one of those Yards continually improving IMHO and has some fantastic facilities in great location.

  5. Apart from Lay Petra I also like Irish Hawke each way, 4.45 Hun; Lord of the Storm each way 8.15 CH; In the 6,45 Ch I like Dalileo with a saver on Jeremiah. Finally Sir Mark has a runner over a distance in the 2.55 LP, Veiled Secret at 12/1.

    Good luck.

  6. Just a note on the breeding that we were discussing at the weekend. The Tattershalls Autumn sales are on at the moment. If you get 5 minutes it is worth going on the website and watching some of the lots go – if not for the horses and the eye-watering amounts they go for then watch it for the skill and speed of the auctioneer.

    Anyway Lot 418 – a bay filly called Gloam by Galileo out of Dank (Breeders Cup winner) has just sold for 4 million Guineas. Incredible. They had to tap the hammer down lightly at the end so as not to spook her. Let’s see if she gets to the racecourse in the middle of next year.

    Cheers

    Ben

    1. Yep just saw that… the sales are worth a visit if you are anywhere near Newmarket also, can just walk in, sit down and watch the action- very good fun. Get to see them parade pre sales ring, and you never know you may sit next to – got chatting some rich owner who lived in the Caribbean haha . Loved the game.

      Very interesting for Flat game to see that HRH is back buying Galileo’s again after 10 years + of not touching them. Should lead to more excitement with any luck. Gosden getting more involved in Godolphin operation also which is interesting- having some influence on what they buy, even if not to be sent to him I believe.

      Josh

      1. Yep – have been a couple of times and it is amazing (especially keeping dead still during the bidding just in case). The scary downside though is that 1 Frankel lot went for less than the stud fee on top of the auction costs and that can be crippling.

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