Members Daily Post: 05/10/17 (complete)

Section 1, + VIDEO+ test zone, + notes

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

JUMPS

Huntingdon

2.00- Deauville Dancer (all hncps) 14 H3 G3 10/1  WON 10/1 

 

Warwick

3.50 – Quarenta (hncp hurdle + micro class move + runs) H3 I3 G1 3/1 WON 7/2

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers from the report HERE

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated 1st Oct)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated 1st Oct)

Test Zone:  | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>> C Appleby/York Ebor: Read HERE>>> |NTD Sept/Oct: Read HERE>>>

Welcome Email/Note: READ HERE>>>   Welcome VIDEO: Watch HERE>>> (long!) ‘Brief’ Welcome Intro: Watch HERE>>>

Main Stats Guides (used for section 1 quals) : Summer Stats: Read HERE>>> | Jumps (all non summer only tracks): (new report to follow soon)

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 7/74,27p, -5.1) (Jumps: 9/64, +23.5) (total: 17/138, +18.6)

None.

Notes…

Deauville DancerWON 10/1 well he qualifies on jumps strategy #2  (and #1 also… my Flat and Jumps strategy brain crossing over there.. G1/G3, 10/1+ morning prices they qualify, or 11.00+ BFSP to cover drifters..anyway, he was covered on a few approaches there!) if you follow that systematically (really do start small with that one,it will hit losing runs of 25-40 a few times,profit in 2017 speaks for itself) (10/1 -25/1 on morning prices,those I enter next to horse above)… I have thrown my standard ‘notes’ stake at him (£5 on the nose) given his price… My head says he doesn’t stay this trip. On all evidence available over hurdles that would appear to be the case. But, that is over hurdles. This is his first ever try at the trip over fences. He is 6. He is 2/6 chasing. The trainer is in form. Hughes comes down from ‘up North’ for the ride… and in truth if you want a jockey to cajole a questionable stayer home, he would be near the top of my list. His patient/quiet/’throw the kitchen sink at them only after the last’ style should give this one every chance of getting home. I simply do not know if he will stay this trip over fences. I suspect he won’t. But I am getting 10/1 to find out.  They may go a slower pace over fences here,than this trip over hurdles. That may help.

I will mention Mille Nautique in the same race for those of you who do better at that end of the market than I do… 5/2 may not be overly generous… but from what I can see of the pace maps he is likely to make all here- or try to. He is in form, has a decent record after 60+ days off, a CD winner, yard is red hot… I have seen worse 5/2 shots and it will be interesting to see how he goes.

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On what is a quiet day.. a VIDEO.. ONLY 15 minutes… the first 10 look back at a decent priced winner at Bangor… what can I/we learn and apply to analysis in future… (20/1>12/1>4/1 winner that was easy enough to find). The last 5 mins or so look at the 7.45 Chelmsford – an 8/1 shot I think could make all, plus two others of possible interest at big odds.. not a race to go mad on but may liven up a quiet day for small stakes…

 

 

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3.Micro System Test Zone

NTD

2.45 War – Jubulani (m1 22/1<) 2nd

4.25 War – Ballycross (m1/4/5) UP

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

RESULTS... my ‘NOTES’… (section 2)

Below is just a re-cap on how horses performed that I mentioned in section 2 (excluding ‘bet of the day’). I don’t know if I changed approach in September or took things a bit more seriously- or just thought sod it, i won’t be scared of mentioning losers and will just say what I think. And, in truth, I don’t know how any ‘notes’ got on before September, and I have no intention of trawling back through to find out. So, this info is there for you to use as you please. I will keep closer tabs on those I mention positively.

So, for September…

64 horses mentioned / 14 wins / 22% win sr / +74.5 points (to 1 point win bets,level stakes- a point being whatever you determine..+£186.25 to £2.50 win bets)

So far in October… 11 bets / 2 wins / -1

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That’s the lot for today.

GL with any bets.
Josh

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

23 Responses

  1. A horse that might outrun its odds of 14/1 is Osgood with Bet365 in the 4.45 Huntingdon ,has a good few positives,course distance and going all in his favour , jockey has had 2 wins on him and a win at the track on board.He is not going to improve at 10,and is not that good, but its not that hot a race,has won once with blinkers and they are re employed today,so that might spark him up a bit,trainer is in form and does well here,all in all its bit of value i think

    1. Nice write up on the 4.25, Josh, but I found 6/1 too big to ignore about Shanroe Santos last night. I get your point about the 173 day lay off but Lucy’s chasers go well after a break. That said, I can now imagine Sego Success making a fool of both of us.

      Good luck,
      Chris

      1. Cheers Chris.. ah, 6/1.. I can see why you had a go.. I thought 4s looked ok, rather than 1-2 points too big. Hmm… she is ‘only’ 3/33 with handicap chasers 60+ days off last 5 years, albeit 3/19 last 3 years chasers 121-365.. so, not stats to be put off if you like the price- at 4s, a niggle for me, combined with yard form- small numbers,probably not out of form, just not in red hot form. And I also get nervous with shorter priced hold up chasers. Am comfortable leaving him at 4s, but can see why you had a go at 6s.. with any luck someone on here has the winner! The betting gods usually give me a punch in the face when bullish on a 7/2 shot, questionable form at that end.. yet to poses your skills in the 3/1-11/2 range!

        Sego.. he may do but I can live with that at his morning price- he doesn’t have a great record after a break but clearly ticks plenty of boxes.. for my part Sam can’t let him get away on the front end. If he drifted to 5s+, then that poses a ‘saver’ question!
        GL

    2. I feel the fool for not tipping Ballycross last night at 5s (I even looked at his re-appearance race). Has some incredibly good form with a number of very good novice chasers. He actually beat BigBadJohn on re-appearance who won the Grade 2 Reynoldstown later in the season. Both those Chepstow runs contained several good horses and he was bang in contention both times. Obviously still needs to win now that I have written that LOL.

      1. Indeed, he does look the most fascinating, thought 7/2 was ok still, and have dived in head first. Likewise, should have looked yesterday, but not sure how long 5s was around for. If it all goes to plan he will make 7/2 look big!

          1. Indeed, what a bugger! Suppose when you are not shocked when a horse wins (No Butts only real shock win in that one) and he was second biggest price in the morning, 14s, some questions to ask! Oh well. All in hindsight. Winners everywhere for Jonjo. Hunt, Warwick double. A yard to watch!!

  2. Zambezi queen 3.30 lingfield
    Another I think we have been here before with.
    Conditions maybe right today.

    1. Hi Josh & Martin
      Very grateful, more than I could have hoped for!! I will keep an eye out for the big blue jacket and at least one drink and more will be offered. It’s all printed off and ready for the flight over tomorrow
      Many thanks again
      Harry

    1. Thanks Norman, always nice to start a day with those! May have to start topping up my ‘notes’ stakes, albeit after September, I am due a bump soon enough. Not sure 22% win SR, +74 points etc is achievable every month! Another for any systematic followers of Jumps #2 also.(and #1!) Lovely ride from Hughes, that has won it.

    1. Well done. Well I bloody hope not haha. I’m a bit buggered if you did! 🙂 Slow and steady wins the race, fingers crossed should all just keep ticking along. It’s a long term game this approach, but you have to enjoy the spikes. Those winners are fun to cheer home. And when losing runs hits you then don’t need many to wipe out losses and propel you back in front.

  3. Another one for the triple rater. I suspect they won’t make you a millionaire over night but long terms wouldn’t be surprised if they become the most consistent way into the stats.

    1. Indeed, what’s that now… 6/10, +14 or so… I mean by their nature they will never be a massive price, and they won’t keep up that SR, but interesting to track, esp when odd top rated in the mix maybe. Early days.

  4. two lovely winners there today glad now i opted in to start backing the strategie bets , sorry no good at paper trading , just doing them all to bfsp minimum stake of £2.00 .

    1. That’s the way to do it Steve.. yep, start off at that level and build up over time. It’s more fun, and stress free when losing runs/wobbles hit. There will be more where they have come from. On we go.

  5. josh how are you playing the johnston horse in 7.45 chelmsford just a crisp five pound bet or bit more.ticks lot of boxes i think its worth a throw of something

    1. hmm, well as you have asked.. I would be lying if I said I hand’t topped up with another £5 a) having had an ok day.. backed DD, jonjo’s winner (when hit 4s before coming back in) and Fergal’s on free post and b) he’s gone to 10s. Silly really given the nature of the race but oh well! My form on the AW doesn’t inspire confidence but something to look forward to later on.
      Have noted Malt Tease who Gerry highlighted in free post, his price has crashed through the day. Staking/amount is all personal mind, that £10 is in context of my own betting bank/profits etc etc!
      GL

      1. Oh well the one interesting/unexposed one has won that easily, decent enough run- being able to dictate wouldn’t have made any difference. Onto tomorrow.

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