Members Daily Post: 25/09/17 (complete)

Section 1 + quick re-cap + Notes

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Leicester

4.45 –

Titan Goddess (3yo+) H3 I1 G1

Duchess of Fife (3yo+) I3 G3 9/1 UP

5.45 – Seebring (all hncps) 12/1 UP

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers from the report HERE

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated) 

Test Zone:  | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>> C Appleby/York Ebor: Read HERE>>> |NTD Sept/Oct: Read HERE>>>

Welcome Email/Note: READ HERE>>>

Main Stats Guides (used for section 1 quals) : Summer Stats: Read HERE>>> | Jumps (all non summer only tracks): Read HERE>>

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

No ‘tips’…but…

Duchess of Fife.. I have had a nibble at 9/1… she won here over 8f two starts ago, in a race which has thrown up a few winners. On her last start she stepped up to 10f where she pulled for a time and appears to have just emptied- a combination of those exertions and the trip I suspect. Well, at 9/1, I can afford to think that was the reason and be wrong. She drops back down to 8f here and Martin Lane gets back on, having ridden her to that win the time before. She seems to like it around here and is still fairly lightly raced.  The going – Soft- is the reason you wouldn’t go mad. It is simply an unknown. She won here on GS so cut isn’t a problem but this could be hard work. But, yep, you guessed it, that’s why ‘you want a price’. This is no 3/1< shot where such risks may not be worth taking. 9s seems more than fair for a dabble on a quiet day. Lane should race her prominently and if she can settle better, she would have a chance.

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Quiet enough day what with Hamilton being called off.

I hope you may have backed one winner at least on Sunday… those stats were from the ‘new’ refreshed Trainer Track Profile: Jumps 2017/18 stats pack, so good to see them start off ok.

Re-cap... due to being away/sore head etc, I didn’t have time to add any notes etc… but I hope some of you had a nibble on Rob Robin.. he had ‘that profile’ – your ‘way in’ could have been the 10/1-25/1 strategy… as per link in Key above (advised jumps strategies)- that is an emotional roller-coaster of an approach if you back systematically, but as a general rule plenty of the profit falls in those in the 10/1-25/1 range, on morning prices. In any case… ‘that profile’ – he was lightly raced (only his second handicap hurdle, having made handicap hurdle debut LTO), and ‘doing something different’- they dropped him down 3f here, which did the trick. And given how he ran the last day you could see why. He arrived in form as well, a decent enough run at Fontwell. And he was 10s. He hosed up. That profile/approach/thought process  looks likely to work just as well over the sticks as the level. The Moore winner came into that category also I think…albeit 5/1, and I didn’t have chance to look at him as I was on a train and didn’t back him. I don’t mention that to rub salt into a gaping wound if you didn’t back him, but as ever it is good to reflect so that with any luck we can all improve our game over time. Relentlessly focusing on that sort of profile,outside/in addition to any strategies you may follow systematically, should pull in the profits over time.

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3.Micro System Test Zone

None.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Weekly Results update for Advised Strategies to follow… in Tuesday’s post.

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Charlie Longsdon… well done to those of you who highlighted his record in September. Without doubt it looks like a month he targets/gets his string bouncing for. His non-handicappers tend to be shorter/not much value. He still has winners and in truth all of his runners look worthy of attention. But, before yesterday’s 4/1 + 8/1 winners, in handicaps since start of 2014, he was…

37 bets / 15 wins / 25 places (inc wins) / +34 BFSP / AE 1.93.

(3/8,4p, +9 this year… add another +12 or so to that)

I will have to remember to highlight his runners on here next year! With any luck my Twiston-Davies angles start having runners/firing soon. But with 6 days left of the month, keep an eye on Charlie’s runners. Recruiting Johnny Burke as stable jockey seems to be an inspired choice also. His horses ‘generally’ want better ground, but not always the case and I think he has a decent team to go to war with this year.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

18 Responses

  1. Colin – bad luck on your Coetzee hunch. He looked nailed on for a place. It just goes to show how hard it is to tip golf picks.

    On the Casey debate I have to say that his relative lack of wins baffle me. It has always been an issue with him and i have spoken to him about it a while back when he won the Irish Open (came from a few shots back in Round 4 rather than leading from the front which may be relevant). He didn’t feel it was anything specific in his game or his mental make up (well he wouldn’t would he!) but just a case of circumstance. I have to say it seems to have become more of an issue since then but I wish him all the best tonight. He’s a good guy and thoroughly deserved it. It would also help the personal bank balance too! Cheers Ben

    1. Ben
      Thanks for your insight on Paul Casey,do not know if you have seen it i put up on yesterdays free report a note on mental attitude to pressure.
      Remember 3 to 4 years ago Kyle Stanley had a 6 or 7 shot lead and blew it on the 18th when the ball ran into the lake,and then he went onto win the following week at 66/1.
      Did not see Coetzee implode i hope no one backed him for he was not a bet for i had scrubbed Portugal as a no bet tournament and will only put bets that i back so there can never be any false claims or misinterpretation.
      Lets hope for Paul Casey that he wins tonight,no pressure then Ben now you have backed him!!!
      Cheers
      Colin

      1. Hmm. We’ll see. Hasn’t started well. No problem with Coetzee. Had him in mind anyway. He tends to come good in the Autumn. Cheers Ben

  2. a quick update on my loose cannon/unadvised approach , i back everything to a staking plan and since joining in January my bank is up 444.27 pts, sunday i staked 22pts with 3 winners – 2pts @12.5, 3pts @6.4 and 4pts @4.1 for a return of 59.6 pts. of course with this approach the lows are more severe and it is a higher risk strategy but it works for my mindset . so keep up the good work Josh as i’ll need a few quid for Wetherby in November 🙂

    1. Good stuff Martin, yep you’ve found an approach that works for you which is what it is always about…and we are about to hit the jumps season which seems to find more biggies, or has done so far. roll on the jumps.

  3. Tour Championship
    Where did this guy Souffle come from? spoiled the party Thomas my bet, what was he doing at the last, all he needed to do was play it short onto the fairway with his second shot pitch it close and get the birdie and win.
    Well I did get a couple of things right, both No1s world and fed ex don’t win. Fed ex No2 going into the Tour Champ have had 3 wins a 3rd and now a 2nd worth keeping in mind for next season.
    Tough for Casey nothing went for him in the last round.
    We move onto the next one?

    Mike

    1. perhaps the birth of a child will help Paul Casey? He needs proper help re mental attitude re the final round to progress to be at the top. They were going on about it on Sky in the commentary. The greats were great players and also strong mentally. However we are all, or most of us, all humans with our brain giving us conflicting vibes.

      1. Mike your last paragraph we move onto the next one most apt for it is long term for profit and will be in the black after tomorrows bets.

        Martin could be the end of Paul Casey for Luke Donald was number one till the birth of his first child after he went into decline maybe Casey will become world number one?

  4. Morning Josh,

    There is TWO class 3, 3 mile chases in the next couple of days. Bet you must be chomping at the bits!

    Regards,
    Nick

    1. Morning Nick, yep I have that ‘kid before xmas’ feeling, which is very sad- but boy do I get a buzz from those types of races – and two tracks where if you can jump/run on the pace/lead..you tend to do ok. ‘early season’ mind, summer jumpers vs winter etc etc, so always some caution…but it will be good to get back in the groove. Ticked over in recent weeks what with Uttox Summer Cup and Kerry Nat winners, so hopefully can build on those.
      Josh

      1. Yeah I know what you mean. I am very eager to get stuck into those so fingers crossed we have decent sized fields for them. (even if the Cambridgeshire on Saturday is one of my favorite flat races of the year). Got my Jumping Prospects book from John Morris this morning to get stuck into with Mark Howard’s One Jump Ahead arriving shortly. Plenty to digest there and add to HRB.

  5. Hi Josh…. back now for the ‘proper racing’….fit and raring to go…. for the sticks.
    I hope many of you have stashed the cash. I’ll start sifting back through the pages to see the high’s and lows, but i see a few goodn’s have gone in.
    I’ve done a personal review and ditched about 60% of my systems that are no longer fit for purpose, to time consuming, or simply a pattern change has been noticed. The rest i may tweak. So onwards and upwards.

    BOL all.

    Tony Mc.

    1. Hi Tony,
      indeed, what an exciting time of year.
      Many highs and lows as always! Flat has gone ok, the strategies as per links done ok, and something to build on- happy enough with those at the moment. Usual peaks and troughs.
      Content finding nice priced winners which is always a good starting place!! Well, essential really- and that idea of focusing/looking the more lightly raced horses, asking question of ‘are they doing something different’ (as a reason for seeing an improved performance) is exciting. My ‘notes’ in section 2 have made around +40 points this month…as an indication of what is possible with eyes focused on that kind of profile- albeit odd exposed one in there, but again they were ‘doing something different’.

      The Geegeez 10/1+ strategy looks like it should carry on over jumps, over time. Got the Elite Squad now, which with any luck will tick along over time, and that 10/1-25/1 strategy isn’t a bad starting place to home in on potential bets etc.

      As always, plenty to get stuck in and ponder, i’m sure you’ll be staking away plenty of cash this season 🙂

      Josh

  6. Hi Josh,not too long ago did you not put up that you would look at jockeys stats for a possible system.
    On saturday looked at Ryan Moore Newbury rides where he had 6 rides winning on 1 sp8/1 bfex 15.14
    had noticed at Doncaster that one day he had a treble is it possible to look at his rides at
    Grade 1 and Grade 2 courses only more prize money better quality horse and hopefully decent SP
    Cheers
    Colin

    1. Hi Colin,
      I owe the Betting School/insiders club a 2000 word report/article come the end of this week, so I have some ideas of things to research /write about… having looked at Jockey/Course+Distances on the flat (link in the Test Zone key above) I will have a look over jumps and AW.

      I am sure there is something for Ryan Moore.. I don’t plan on doing any more flat research this year… send me a reminder in May! 🙂

      Maybe some others with HRB may have a dabble, but I don’t have time/desire to do that at this stage in the year/season etc.

      Josh

  7. hi josh the twiston davies road show looks like it starts this week loads of four day entries for wed thur fri sat. i think your days are going to get busy very quickly

    1. Hi Paul, yep it was about time he kicked into gear…we shall see if they are bouncing as usual…my days, esp Mon-Friday, just hover between busy and very very busy. Always plenty to do! 🙂 Esp this time of year.

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