Members Daily Post: 19/09/17 (complete)

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 7/71,26p, -2.1) (Jumps: 9/64, +23.5) (total: 17/135, +21.6)

No ‘bet of the day’

Hmmm… there are a few of interest today I think, but a few are more exposed and I wasn’t confident enough to tip them… there is one on the unexposed front…

Royal Headley… UP This was simply a price calculation as at 9/2, 4/1, I just had a niggle. And you want to be 100% sure in that range. He is the most interesting today and has that profile that I like to bang on about and that has found many a nice priced winner.  (you know the one, unexposed/lightly raced – doing something different)… Well this one makes handicap debut after three maiden runs (trainer 3/13,4p here with hncp debutants) The horse moves up in trip by 4 furlongs and runs on soft for the first time. The main man takes over in the saddle for the first time. ‘The Story’ makes sense…two quick runs and then a break, returning the last day after a few months off. That may have been to strengthen up…or there is a chance they have concluded he wants it soft enough, so have been patient and waited for an autumn campaign. The ground is a complete unknown, but plenty of Nathaniel’s have done very well on soft to date, a solid 20% win SR, which is better than the record on decent ground so far. I don’t know if he will stay, and I don’t know if he will like the going…when in that situation I like a slightly bigger price. He is doing something different (well about 4 things…hncp d,trip,ground,jock,C6 also!) which is a positive, but you want a price to allow you to be wrong plenty of times.  I am a bit torn…because if all that clicks together he may hack up here in what is a weak race. The splinters are hurting… you may think that is a cracking price, and you may well be proved right. 

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Other ‘non strategy horses’ I will mention…

Ya Jammeel… UP 11/2, 6/1 feels ok I think, as I suspect Franny will try and make all. I have thrown something at him to find out… the trip stretched him the last day and he may have gone off too quickly, but he was in cracking form before that and it had all clicked. He does need to step up into C4 which tempers some enthusiasm for going too hard…but the pace angle intrigues me. It may depend on what Murphy does on his, but he will be up there and is no forlorn hope.

Poets Society... WON 7/2  (well, he is on the top rated,6/1+ angle..) caught the eye and I just managed to have a quick nibble at 8s before the money started coming…not sure if he has been tipped up somewhere. Like many a Johnston horse he has had plenty of runs…the class drop is what caught the eye…running in plenty of hot C2s, and 3s, he drops to class 4 here… which was the level of his last win. Rarely for a Johnston horse, his best form has been with juice in the ground and he may relish conditions here. The race is also there to be stolen from the front my someone. And the TJC record is decent in handicaps. I can let Magical Dreamer beat me at 11/4, which he may do. He won’t carry any of my money at that price.

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Of the strategy qualifiers…

Well I have had a go at Earthly, UP  in more hope than expectation…but he is fairly lightly raced and it is the second run for the yard after a break. 2/7 in career… he is now 0/4 on turf although a few of those were maidens…the evidence is starting to suggest he may just be an AW horse…but at 20/1, for a trainer that has the odd biggie go in, I will not over think that ES qual. He could win, and with any luck one of the two in this does, for my betting bank anyway.

Ocean Temptress WON 6/1 looked decent enough at 13/2 I thought, for the treble rated… she may have done too much on the AW over 7f the last day and in any case looks best on turf. Provided she is still in form I can see her giving this a good go from the front. She may bump into something with more in hand but most of these have many more questions to answer than she does, and is only 3lb above the win a couple of starts back. The Charlton horse is an obvious danger.. the only one with a ‘sexy’ unexposed profile in this…but he does have ground to prove in the slop,and runs as if he wants further than 6f to my eye. So, he is worth taking on…may hack up,but I can live with that at 5/2.

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There are 5 horses I haven’t mentioned that may leave me with egg on my face… those mentioned above seemed to have more positives to my eyes… rather than the others having loads of negatives if that makes sense. So, if you like them, don’t be put off because I haven’t mentioned them.

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That’s all for today. GL with any bets.

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Quick re-cap… I have just had a flick through the ‘notes’ (exc ‘tips of the day’) scribbled so far in September… in total I have positively mentioned,or sat on the fence, about 30 horses. 6 have won at 7/1, 12/1,4/1,8/1,10/1 and 14/1. +31 points to 1 ‘point’ bets… that is just for context and I have no idea what I have done on that score in August and previously. And when I mention a horse they are not ‘tips’ but the general idea is to highlight horses from section 1 of interest. I flicked through those notes for my own mind as much as anything else… the odd one of those will have qualified on a strategy or two, but most, if not all, have been ‘doing something different’, the majority at the more unexposed end of the experience scale. So, this month anyway, they have at least been worth the read! 🙂  Hopefully you find them of interest but always happy to take direction if you think that approach could be improved.

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VIDEO: Weekly Review

A look at 5 recent blog winners and what I/we can learn from them/ The Kerry National Review / 3 recent jump runners to keep an eye on…

3.Micro System Test Zone

None.

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Results: Advised Strategy Links updated above…

I won’t review every week as it is the nature of the approach that there will be ups and downs. The content found some decent winners, not too many last week were strategy winners but you can flick through those above if you wish. That ‘lightly raced/doing something different’ approach continues to find some nice priced winners. Most of them mentioned in passing rather than ‘tipped’ in Bet of the Day, I should work on that! But I know you plenty of you are finding them which is the main thing. Those of you who backed either a) Kerry national winner b) Varian’s Donny 20/1 winner, or both, hopefully had an ok week.

Flat.. of most note maybe… #2 lost 7 points… the Flat ES have been on a downward spiral for a couple of weeks… although +8 on Monday wiped out the -8 from last week, and hopefully that is a sign of a mini revival. All the numbers/wins/places/ROI look fine.

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