Members Daily Post: 18/09/17 (complete)

Section 1 (all ratings posted) + test zone + bet of the day/notes

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Inform Speed ratings now added… in terms of advised strategies, Parole now also becomes treble rated

 

FLAT

Brig

2.40 –

Baltic Prince  (3yo+,  micro TJC)    ES  I3  11/1 WON 11/1>13/2 

Latest Quest  (all Hc’s) 20/1 UP

3.10 –

Suni Dancer  (3yo+, Micro TJC)    ES I3 G3  10/1 UP

Bella’s Venture (micro Class) 11/1 3rd

4.15 –

Altaira  (3yo+) H3 I3 11/2 UP

Haldaw  (3yo+, micro Age)     ES 8/1 UP

Jeremy’s Jet  (3yo+, micro TJC)    ES G3 20/1 UP

Lord E  (micro dist) H1  9/2

Sampaquita  (micro dist) 14/1 UP

4.45- Andalusite  (micro class) I3 14/1  WON 14/1>12/1 

 

Carl

2.50 –

Inspector Norse  (micro age ) I3 G3 10/1 UP 

Royal Icon  (3yo+, micro season runs) I3  12/1 2nd

4.25 – Rock n Rolla  (micro class)    ES H3

5.25 – Parole  ( micro age ) H1 I3 G1 9/2 UP

 

 

SUMMER JUMPS

Worc

2.30 – Conteur D’Histoire  (micro class) G1 I1 11/1 UP 8/1 (looks like stamina gave out) 

4.05 – Sunader  (NHF) 4/1 UP

4.35 – Verygoodverygood  (all Hc’s)    ES 16/1 UP 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers from the report HERE

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated) 

Test Zone:  | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>> C Appleby/York Ebor: Read HERE>>> |NTD Sept/Oct: Read HERE>>>

Welcome Email/Note: READ HERE>>>

Main Stats Guides (used for section 1 quals) : Summer Stats: Read HERE>>> | Jumps (all non summer only tracks): Read HERE>>

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 7/70,25p, -1.1) (Jumps: 9/64, +23.5) (total: 17/134, +22.6)

2.50 Carlisle- Royal Icon – 1 point win – 12/1 (gen) 2nd 

Ah boll**ks. 🙂 So close. I thought she was just going to gallop past there and win. There is a chance the winner has just wanted that more, but that also track position has won that…the winner got an easy enough lead on the front, ours was held up last for most of the way…the energy used to get up to the leader may have told come the end..oh what might have been to have raced in mid div/or trying to track the pace. She travelled so comfortably there, and could have raced anywhere she wanted in that field. Annoying. That’s how it’s going, another place for the test tips. On we go. 

 

This one is a bit of a stab but she ticks all the boxes… unexposed/more to come one day (0/10,2p career all runs, 0/5,1p turf) and she is doing plenty of things differently… moves up to 12f, from 7f, and as she is out of a St Leger winner you would have to hope that she may relish it. Ryan is 5/24,13p,+13 in the last two years with horses he has moved in distance by 20% or more from their last run. She started handicapping off 65 and now runs off 55. There is a jockey switch. The cheekpieces are removed. Finally…she runs on a soft surface for the first time…not many of her sires progeny have run on heavy but they are… 4/23,7p. That may well be the same horse, i don’t know, but there wasn’t a reason to be put off. So, all of that combined made her of interest and Ryan’s have been going well of late. This will go one of two ways… she either relishes conditions and as such has a load in hand, and runs her best race to date. Or she hates the going, and falls out the back of the tv, or a mix of the trip+going is just a bit too much. Or she is just out of sorts, but she could have been running over the wrong trip/wrong ground. At 12s I will roll the dice.

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Of the rest… well that Brighton card is a shocker and having looked through it is easier to be negative on most of those, rather than make a positive case, so we shall see. It is mainly C6 dross, with unpredictable beasts. With any luck a few run well but I won’t be shocked either way and it doesn’t look like a card/list of quals that I personally want to go mad on. But then my reading at that end of the class scale can be questionable, and if in doubt, trust the stats I suppose… I will just touch on the lightly raced ones…

Haldaw looks interesting… 0/8,1p career, 0/4 on turf..so some hope that one day he may show more. his mark is tumbling and he does drop 2f from recent runs. And he is in a weak 3yo+ race, rather than 3yo only, so gets the allowances etc. Lord E (now a NR) would have a chance but may be getting on the short side for me. He won over hurdles LTO and ran well on his last flat start over this distance. He will need a pace collapse as will be doing his best work late. Will need them to go hard but this is a poor race and a repeat of that last flat start puts him bang there.

Sampaquita...is just interesting given her profile..three maiden runs, now makes handicap debut in a weak race, steps up in trip from 10 to 12f. Trainer and jockey are 2/9,5p at the track in handicaps. She may not be that good, and Moore is 0/6,0p with his handicap debutants at the track. But he does have winners with this type, and at a double figure price I will have a nibble.

Not that lightly raced but… Andalusite… drops 1f and down two classes…that last run niggles at me, unless something went wrong..but that weak finish would concern me. There is a chance they get a lead/try to make all, which may be tough with this many runners. But, she isn’t unexposed, she is 3lb above her last winning mark,and as yet there are no ratings pointers… so, that may be one of those winners I can live with not backing I think. Or maybe some loose change! My head says no.

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Over jumps…

Conteur D’Histoire .. well he qualifies on strategy 1 for jumps… G1 or G3, 10/1+ on prices next to horse above… so it’s a bet, if you follow it systematically. His SP is now irrelevant. … and in a weak chase I think he has to be a bet.. he ran much better the last day and looked worth a go back over this longer trip. This is only his 3rd chase start. Given his breeding you wouldn’t think he wants this far but who knows. He also gets first time blinkers…not something I really like to see for this type… restricted vision for inexperienced chasers… but they may work. They may not. But given that speed rating, his profile,and his double figure price, well worth rolling the dice I think.

I would be surprised if Verygoodverygood won if I am being honest, I don’t think he stays this trip – his two wins were over 19-20f, and he looks a C4 animal at best. But, that’s how I view these things and he may surprise me. He will be fit if they want him to be

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That’s the lot today.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Twiston-Davies (link to research in in the Key)

4.35 Worc – Verygoodverygood (Micro 2 -‘M2’-, any odds) UP

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Nothing. I will update advised strategy results asap.

I will post Inform Speed ratings pointers, if there are any, as soon as they are uploaded on the Inform site. Still not there as a type at 9.26

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

17 Responses

    1. Adrrastos in the 3.35 is your man. Sheehan has had 8 rides this year in h/cap chases for jamie snowdon and won 3 of them for 6.5 points profit to sp
      ,and snowden has a 24 pc strike rate in h/cap chases in last 2 years for a 19 pts profit to sp
      and 2 winners from 6 runs at worcester in last 2 years for a 6pt profit to sp

    1. Hi Martin, yep I have sobered up now,just a tad bit of sleep deprivation. It was a cracking weekend, although I don’t think I can remember the final two hours of Saturday evening!

      Yep Worcester generally favours prominent racers…it isn’t the best of cards and that Adrrastos does look the most solid front runner on the card…there are not many other chases with out and out front runners,and those that may be up there seem to have the odd question. They are not the best of chases either. but in general, every chase tracks favours front runners…if you can find one who gets and easy lead/can jump/go their own pace etc..

      GL with any bets today,
      Josh

  1. Josh kevin Ryan came good on Saturday at muss with system selection. This one today steps up in trip along way . What I can’t understand if he thinks it’s a stayer why he’s taken so long to find out. It might be desperatiom

    1. It might well be desperation, or he is just being patient/giving time…and as the horse has developed this season (only 3 remember,and he had all his problems over the summer which may explain some of the ‘weakening’ efforts) they may now think it is time..suspect his last jockey may have had feedback along those lines… clearly a moderate horse but as per above there are reasons to take a chance. Horses surprise trainers often enough,he may well have thought 8/7f was her trip. We shall find out soon enough. And your reservations are why you always want a price with this type. She may struggle. She may relish it. If she simply hasn’t been quick enough over recent trips, I think that would mean she has been flat out for longer, or legs simply unable to go pace when others have quickened, and those exertions can take toll in final furlong or two. I thought there was enough there to have a go.

  2. Couple for me today in the mud at Carlisle (always a great tipping way in in itself). Firstly I want to be on McVicar in the 14:20. One of the few with proven form on heavy and the I like the fact that he stays much further than this given today’s gruelling conditions. Jockey and trainer are 3/6, 6p in handicaps here in the past 2 years. The horse is a solid 1/4, 2p in class 6 flat handicaps and the jockey has 2 places from 2 flat runs on him. Down to his last winning mark also.

    I also want a bet on Toboggans Fire in the 17:25. Another one who should relish conditions. He is 3/5, 4p in class 5s worth less than £3.5k. Has only once been out of the places over soft or heavy. Runs in a class 5 for the first time since his last win and is on a good mark given he placed in a class 4 off 5 lbs higher. Was a solid 4th in a class 4 at the track over ground which probably wouldn’t have been soft enough a couple of starts ago. Trainer has had a woeful season however most of her horses have ran well recently without winning so she looks to be picking up. Its interesting that Gray who has had most of the trainer’s rides this season gets the ride the horse on the flat for the first time since I think its a sign of intention and I thought 14/1 was too big.

    1. Hi Nick,
      I like Colour Contrast in the 2.20. Jardine has been in good form and the claimer takes 7LB off and the horse has some reasonable form.

  3. Poor day of racing today, only one I’m on today other than the G1 jumps horse is Red Star Dancer in the 2.50 at Carlisle. TJC at Carlisle are 4/10, 8 places. Jockey has a 32% S/R at the track over last 50 rides. This is its first start for the new yard, who have 25% win S/R with horses having their first run this year. Trainer has a 21% win S/R at the track overall. Ground is an unknown and prior form for the old yard is a concern. Had a small bet at 7/1.

    1. GL James, yep he did catch my eye when looking at the Ryan runner…mainly due to trainer form…Barron is just starting to fire and is one of only two trainers ‘in form’ in this ,as per GG indicators. Lightly raced,and I would say quite a trainer upgrade I think. Doing ‘plenty different’ including step up in trip. Can see why you’ve had a nibble,maybe I may take some covering fire!
      Josh

      1. Hard luck Josh, I thought Royal Icon was getting there. Tough to take those ones, but a good pick at least.

        As for mine I think I’ll get the words ‘heavily supported, finished nowhere’ on my grave after the last few weeks

    1. Not overly strong…treble rated,inc two top rated, thought 9/2 was fair.. ran well the last day and drops in class here. Big weight in this ground/hill (ignore that…i was going from faulty memory recall there!!),but repeats last run he should be thereabouts. I had a go given strategy-ratings p/odds/class drop.

      (didn’t run that well in any case)

  4. so not a bad at all BALTIC PRINCE was a nice ES Strategy horse and ANDALUSITE which I got 12/1.
    now I know it wasn’t a qualifier for any of the strategies but I did read josh’s write up and although you were negative about a few things you kind of said it all in the first line down in TRIP and CLASS. One thing I have learned over the last few months using the blog and something josh has mentioned on a few occasions is its not allways best to look into things to much because you could find a negative for just about any horse that races even more so at the high end of the market. so basically I saw a horse that was a stat qualifier and our mentor josh took the time to look at the horse and write a comment because something sparked his interest. that being class and distance (doing something different)so I put a few quid on it. I few months ago I would never of backed it but today that doing something different and not looking to deep into the negatives has worked.
    no it don’t work every day and yes I back more losers than winners. but my skybet account has never looked healthier.

    1. Good stuff Warren… yep I have added a note about ‘the notes’ in Tuesday’s post… in general the aim is to highlight horses that catch my eye in section 2, from section 1. And try to be positive… the excruciating fence sitting is usually an indication as to my confidence and thus own staking amount. I should work on how I frame those things.. but i have highlighted plenty of winners in recent weeks in the notes…and maybe not the ‘pressure’ of ‘tipping’ helps with that… that is something I need to work on, and not thinking too much. We can all do that, but if the price is decent just roll the damn dice! In the end, he did have an inform rating, once they were loaded up, so something there on the numbers also. Got the tactics/easy lead right also.

      I am mentoring myself as much as anything haha. But the best bit about your comment appears to be your own punting progress, which is what it is all about. I’d start betting with a few other firms/throwing some money at the casino games otherwise Sky may get a bit concerned! 🙂

      cheers, Josh

  5. Sky bet is so tempting with its flash deals Lol. I do vary it up with other sports just to keep them on there toes. The weekend consisted of boxing, darts, nfl, and f1. I did well except for the boxing. F1 especially 14/1 for Hamilton to win . Now that was a ridiculous price. Hopefully I will sail under the radar but I do have paddy and ladbrokes to fall back on. But you do hear alot of people getting there accounts restricted.

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