Members Daily Post: 11/09/17 (complete)

Bet of The Day / Section 1 + Listowel notes…

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT

Brig

4.25 –

Funky Footsteps  (all Hc’s)  H3 I3 G3   ES 11/2

Pink Ribbon  (all Hc’s) 18/1 UP

5.25 – Megalala  (4yo+) I3 18/1

 

SUMMER JUMPS

N.Abb

2.45 – Moorlands Jack  (HcCh) H3 13/2 WON 6/1

 

Perth

3.05 – Green Zone  (all Hc’s, HcH) H3 I1 5/1 UP

3.35 – Master Dee  (all Hc’s) 14,30  H3 I3  ES 3/1 UP 4/1 

4.05 – Instingtive  (all Hc’s, HcH, micro dist) H3 14/1

4.35 – The Clock Leary  (HcCh) 14,30 H3 I3 G3 4/1 WON 4/1>3/1 

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers from the report HERE

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to 03/09/17) 

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to 03/09/17) 

Test Zone:  | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>> C Appleby/York Ebor: Read HERE>>> |NTD Sept/Oct: Read HERE>>>

Welcome Email/Note: READ HERE>>>

Main Stats Guides (used for section 1 quals) : Summer Stats: Read HERE>>> | Jumps (all non summer only tracks): Read HERE>>

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 7/68,25p, +0.9) (Jumps: 9/64, +23.5) (total: 17/132, +24.6)

 

4.05 Perth – Instinctive – 1 point win – 14/1 (gen) NR 

This horse is well worth a go at these odds to my eyes. I suspect he will win this or still be running this time tomorrow, and in that scenario i’m always likely to roll the dice. He looks like a classic Harrison Perth project where the market will no doubt guide. One day at this track he will be nibbled at/well punted, and will bolt up. He is unexposed in this sphere and is doing a couple of things differently…

0/6,0p over hurdles he is having only his second run in handicap hurdles and his third for the trainer. As yet there is no evidence that he stays 3 miles and you can’t help but note the drop down to 20f here. The distance move has worked for her here before with hurdlers. He won over 17f for Gary Moore in the slop at Plumton, staying on well, and you would hope this could be ideal. In any case he is doing something different and given he was up there until they turned for home LTO, we have hope. She could have also been using those runs to get him hard fit and to get to know the horse. He is down 3lb from that last run and this decent jockey takes off a further 3lb. Every little helps. Oh, and he drops from class 4 into a class 5… that is what tipped me into betting territory..as was the hunch that they may try and make all. C Bewley is very good from the front. He should be prominent if he can go the pace. So, a few things there that make me a tad excited, at this price…

Now, he could just be out of form. He won for Gary Moore over fences and hasn’t done much since. It could be the trip isn’t the reason for his weak finishing the last twice etc. She may not have found the key to him yet. But, at 14/1, given all of the above and that lightly raced profile, I just had to back him. The market will guide I suspect and fingers crossed he is backed into 7s/8s. This is also a weak race, highlighted by the fact that the Jardine Fav is 0/17 over hurdles. This is there for the taking.

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Famous last words but it ‘feels’ like there ‘could’ be a handful of winners today…

I think both ES horses can be given strong chances. Funky Footsteps... well it is soft at Brighton and he is the only soft/heavy ground winner in the race. It is good to soft, soft in places..so who knows how testing. But the fav and a couple of others have never raced on it, they may relish it…but an unknown. Unknowns are fine if you get a price, some appear to think 11/8 on the jolly is good value. Moronic if you ask me. (in context of ground) (cue hacking up,but the point stands. Good luck in this game if you regularly back 11/8 shots when all you can do is make an educated guess as to whether they handle cut/soft etc) FF… well this is his third run over 10f and that step up has helped a bit. And first over this trip with cut in the going. This could be a bit weaker than recent races also…most races here would be compared to the tracks he has been racing at. He is consistent… I don’t think he is a ‘monkey’, but I suspect he will be right there at the death, staying on.

Master Dee.. if he is a1 here (highly likely, if they want him fit he will be) he will try and make all. Those odds may be getting on the skinny side but if he repeats that Ascot run he wins this I think, given what the horse he beat in second went on to do. Paddy should play catch me if you can, and they may not.

Finally…The Clock Leary.. and that is what Kennedy will try and do here also…he is the only prominent racer in this really and they will try and steal this from the front. He stayed 3m ok at Bangor but the C2/extra yardage may have found him out at Cartmel, along with the long run in/lack of fences. If they can get in a rhythm here and dictate, they could be hard to stop. 4s/9/2 seems more than fair I think. The capper may have him…but the FAV is well worth taking on. Yes he may dot up, but he has stamina to prove. He may do that, but again 11/8 is short for a horse that has yet to prove something. He may stay, he could not. He has had 40 days off as well which would be a niggle. The Clock Leary comes here in good form and the yard is bouncing. Fingers crossed he runs his race. I will have a go to find out.

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Listowel... both of those below are unexposed and ‘could be anything’… which is means you can always live in hope! I have thrown change at the pair for fun, given the good odds.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

None.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

LISTOWEL BIG MEETING NOTES: READ HERE>>>

 

Listowel Notes 

I think the only ones to hit any of the bullet points/positive pointers…

2.30 – Lustful

3.30- Althiba (wrong trainer, apols)

4.00- Angelique

 

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That’s the lot today. GL with any bets.

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

25 Responses

    1. Oh yes..hmmm… good spot. Think I just saw Prendergast and assumed. HRB initials etc can be misleading at times…I don’t think they are the same person but will check in morning! I cant see how they can be so have got that wrong. Thanks for that. Josh

  1. Ashington could be worth a couple of quid at a big price in the 2.55 @ Brighton tomorrow. Same trainer and track as I had with Wilson last week and another 2YO. Trainer has a very strong record here and also with his 2YOs here in Sept. First couple of runs have been awful but thats been on the AW, this will be very different and looks ok on breeding with Sire’s horses 1/4 over C&D. 33/1 in some places, not worth the e/w as only 2 places and will prob either bolt up or fall out the back of the telly

      1. Well done Colin. I bet after the third round of tournaments and was on Matt Fitz at 11/2 and he finished well to win in a play off.

        The NFL has now started for another season. My fourth sport. Anyone else?

        1. Thanks Colin, I went in with both tips and got 30/1 on Fitzpatrick so a tidy return from a small stake. Watching the play off with a few quid at stake was a little nervy at times but he got there in the end.

  2. Hi Josh
    I am off on a corporate day at Doncaster on Wednesday the 1st day of the St Leger meeting, if you have time do you think you can do a video or go through the card please?
    Tom

    1. Hi Tom,
      I’m sure we can do something 🙂 With any luck we will have some trainer pointers etc as well. Will try and get anything done by Tuesday evening so you have some time to flick through/absorb/ignore etc!
      Josh

  3. I was lucky enough to visit Harry Whittington,s yard in Wantage this weekend To have a look at a horse my son has a share in, must say I was very impressed with the whole set up, the welcome we received was tremendous and the opportunity to meet all the staff and discuss all aspects of horse racing was a real eye opener.

    They have a few horses that are deemed real prospects including the horse we went to see (cost 100k)and they will be running in early October so hopefully there will be some snippets coming my way
    the have a horse in the 3.05 Perth today which is not without a chance he said its fit and a long way to go not to be trying currently 7/2 not a tip just a bit of chat from a decent fella

    Brian

    1. Cheers Brian, always enjoy reading such snippets etc… just had a look at him… unexposed… takes a big step up in trip (trainer 2/10,7p with distance moves 20% either way), looks to be the only pace angle (IF they front run,may ride for stamina or say sod it,we think he will stay,let’s make all) top speed geegeez, gets the hood for the first time, may help… trainer 1/3,2p at the track. All in all, I won’t be putting you off a nibble on him!! GL

  4. Cheers Josh my Sons horse is a beast he will probably be a chaser but they have high hopes for him I’m a maiden or novice hurdle early doors I will keep you informed.

  5. Hi All
    Thanks for your kind words i will only record matt at 28/1 for only one bookmaker had him at 30/1.
    Well that was a roller coaster ride and thankfully the play off went for us.
    I back against the flow and so next weeks tips can miss the cut,but for those who backed Matt have a nice bank to start with,i have said before there will be long losing runs so do not go mad and the aim is long term profit.
    Tuesday’s bets will be on the Free site by Noon

    1. Yep well done Colin, not a bad start, I have seen worse!! I would like to think any long term readers of these pages have taken on board the info about losing runs etc but reminders are always useful. Of course I am now expecting 28/1 winners every week from two picks!! 🙂 GL next week. Josh

      1. Hi Josh
        Your expectations are low my aim are the 50/1 winners if only!!!

        On a serious note i would like to thank you on a superbly run club and a lot of your members who pass on information and systems i have certainly enjoyed it so far over the years and it is improving year on year,that is the reason i wanted to put up my golf bets.
        Cheers to you all
        Colin

        1. Thanks Colin, that’s much appreciated. I’m happy with progress over the last few years, and with the Members’ Club which in this form is only a year old or so. I think we are getting there. Other than long term results etc/usefulness of content (which I think is all heading in the right direction), I am most pleased with the community ‘feel’ and atmosphere of the blog, both free posts/members. It seems to be a place where readers/members are happy to chip in/chat etc, which is satisfying and appreciated. There is always something useful/interesting to flick through. And I know that’s appreciated by all those who read the posts/comments etc. You cannot rest in this game mind and I will keep chipping away. Josh

    1. Cheers…ah i do love a lone front running 3m+ handicap chaser… so dangerous if they can go own pace and they jump, that;s what’s won that- I don’t think he stays a strongly run 3m over fences, but that is how you win them with that type… easy game with Geegeez pace cards in fairness.. pace wise.. every other horse usually held up, would have been criminal if they hadn’t try to make all. Job done.

  6. Pretty much spot on there about Clock Leary Josh. I thought you were going to have another one of those days where the only jumps rating qualifier you didn’t put on the free post was the only winner.

    1. haha… yep glad he won on that front! I didn’t have a penny on Moorlands and am still staring at him… can let him/a 12 yo win at single fig odds and not beat myself up… he did jump out on Instant expert, clearly well placed…well, all bar on soft which put me off a tad..but turns out the oppo were poor and he had placed on soft at much higher level, marks in 120s in his youth. Nice to see the veterans win though.

      ..treble rated as well… will be interesting to see how they get on.

      Fergal’s ran as if he needed the run.

      1. Yeah that’s the first treble rated jumps winner I think (although I don’t follow those below 3/1 so might have missed one).

        Yeah I cannot believe Hammersley Lake drifted to 6/1 in the Mister Dee race consider he was 2nd in a much better race 3 weeks ago.

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