Free Daily Post: 11/09/17 (complete)

re-cap, micros, Members’ Perth qualifiers….

Weekend recap…

Congratulations and a big well done to Colin who earlier in the week tipped up Matthew Fitzpatrick in the comments (always worth a read!!)  at 30/1 to win the European Masters… which he did! Top effort. By the comments in the Members’ post, and no doubt to follow below, it sounds like some of you had a little nibble.

Big race trends…

Well I think they did ok over the three races, and I hope you may have applied the Curragh ones on Sunday… (i was away/busy so couldn’t, apologies) but looking back… focusing on those 12/1<, aged 3-5… that left 5 horses. 4-21k LTO (they all failed that) 8-12 to 9-6 on back… that left three… Ice Age / Celebrate / George Bowen… Celebrate ran at Curragh LTO which was a negative…anyway, Ice Age won…12s>15/2 I think. So, at least they worked. They also found Sepal at Haydock, so 2 from 3. Decent enough.

 

 

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Flat 2017: 60+ Day Trainers

2.30 Listowel- Lustful (any odds, 25/1, best)

Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live Test

2.45 NA – Moorlands Jack (9/1<)

 

**

Today… I thought I would highlight/curse all Members’ qualifiers from Perth…. I am not 100% sure Green Zone will stay in the 3.05, much better at shorter…(although only one run over 24f)but knowing my luck he will be the only winner… I thought you could give some sort of chance to the other three, and with any luck at least one of them wins.. or our only winners of the day will be at Brighton, where there is a solid contender in the 4.25. One of those below is an Elite Squad ES qual, which is one of the strategies that I apply to this ‘starting set’ of qualifiers. Backing all those in the 10/1 – 25/1 range on morning prices would have made you very wealthy in 2017 to date, and hopefully Instingtive can add to those profits…

Perth

3.05 – Green Zone  (all Hc’s, HcH) H3 I1 5/1

3.35 – Master Dee  (all Hc’s) 14,30  H3 I3  ES 3/1

4.05 – Instingtive  (all Hc’s, HcH, micro dist) H3 14/1

4.35 – The Clock Leary  (HcCh) 14,30 H3 I3 G3 4/1

**

GL with any bets today.

Tomorrow I will have news of an opportunity to own a share in an exciting Juvenile Hurdle prospect, now in training with Amy Murphy. More on that from Tuesday.

Josh

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

4 Responses

  1. West Ham v Huddersfield is a very interesting game.

    I think the first goal will be massive.
    The Hammers have got off to a terrible start and confidence will be low
    and they play a team who are bubbling with excitement.

    The West Ham manager is under pressure and If Huddersfield were to get the first goal
    you could see the crowd getting on the home teams back and their players starting to hide.

    If that happens the away team could pull apart a dispirited side
    on the other hand if West Ham score first it could be a different story.

    So where dose that leave us for a betting play.
    I don’t think Huddersfield will come with a plan of putting 11 men behind the ball
    and trying to snatch a draw they know West Ham are vulnerable at the moment
    and will come to play.

    I am going to play on high scoring Huddersfield town wins at big prices
    0-2 27/1 on betfair
    0-3 80/1
    1-3 50/1
    2-3 55/1
    any other away win 55/1

    0-1 is 13/1
    1-2 is 14.5

    and a more conservative over 2.5 goals because I am confident if West Ham get first goal
    H Town wont lose their bottle and still be go it at 2.08 on betfair
    A lot of times teams go to the bigger stadiums and have lost before they walk on to the pitch
    but tonight Huddersfield will not be one of those sides which gives them every chance.

    so my bet is £4 wins on the 5 bigger Huddersfield wins scores suggested plus £4 on 0-1 and £25 on over 2.5 goals
    the dream result would be 3-0 to Huddersfield and you cop both bets
    if town win 2-1 the over 2.5 goals would level the bet
    the only really bad results would be 0-0 1-1 1 or 2 nil to the hammers
    any other result would at least break even

    Bournemouth are another team to watch 0-4 from first four games no panic yet but
    another couple of losses and they will start losing belief

  2. The final two games in the south American qualifiers are the games I am
    really interested in

    in the next round of games Argentina play Peru
    and Chile are at home to Ecuador
    all 4 teams are desperate for a win

    if Chile beat Ecuador the Ecuadorians are out
    and it will leave Chile still in the hunt
    Argentina and Peru are level on points and goal difference
    and if the Peruvian can avoid defeat it means Argentina who go to
    Ecuador in the last game 6 days after the Peruvian game will have to
    go to Quito at very high altitude (with little time to acclimatise)
    and get a result.
    My gut feeling is that Argentina whatever rides on the Ecudaor game will be odds on
    but if the pressure is on to get a result and the sudden switch to the High Altitude kills then as it did to Them and Chile when they went to La Paz to play Bolivia they will be vulnerable.
    What is needed come the last game could have a big say in the prices
    so backing Ecuador and the draw regardless of their position is the play
    in fact if Ecuador are out come the last game they will be under no pressure
    and with the Altitude advantage and a team desperate for a result
    could be at a very decent price

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