Members Daily Post: 06/09/17 (complete)

Section 1, Bet of The Day + notes

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Lingfield

None.

 

Chepstow

4.10 – Quantom Dot (all hncps) 5/1 UP

4.40 – Priors Brook (4yo+, + micro class) H3 I3  3/1 UP

 

JUMPS

Southwell

3.00-

Number One London (hncp hurdle) G1 5/1 2nd 7/2 

Alfred Roller (micro runs 90 days) I3 12/1 UP 10/1

3.30 – Dovils Date (hncp hurdle) I3  6/1 UP 10/1 

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers from the report HERE

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to 27/08/17) 

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to 13/08/17) 

Test Zone:  | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>> C Appleby/York Ebor: Read HERE>>> |NTD Sept/Oct: Read HERE>>>

Welcome Email/Note: READ HERE>>>

Main Stats Guides (used for section 1 quals) : Summer Stats: Read HERE>>> | Jumps (all non summer only tracks): Read HERE>>

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 7/67,24p, +1.9) (Jumps: 9/62, +25.5) (total: 17/129, +27.6)

 

3.00 Southwell- Alfred Roller – 1 point win – 12/1 (gen) UP..

Poor old Alfred may still be running as I type this… not one to touch again I don’t think unless a strategy qualifier somewhere, one day…plenty to prove. As it happened it didn’t matter which one I picked as Number One London didn’t win, but ran with credit in 2nd. The winner just did not stop. Moving on…

This race/the two horses in it, look most interesting to my eyes from those above… wait for it, wait… ‘at the prices!’. (yes yes my price eyes are not always correct, but you get the point) I started out looking at the race with eyes fixed on Number One London

….mainly because of his Geegeez Speed figure which is a massive 130…massive in the context of this race… next best is 107, and the rest in the 90s/80s. We shall see if that translates to anything but at 5s, again, a bit like yesterday’s Souls In The Wind, I wasn’t convinced that was overly generous. I have had a play on him as a saver, which I suppose is always a cop out, but there we go. He is 0/7,0p in handicap hurdles and has clearly had his problems. He returned after 380 odd days LTO and ran well. He has had another break. Micro…Handicap hurdles/60+ days/Johns riding… Vaughan is 14/81,25p, +31, which is solid. 2/11,3p at Southwell. This is the horse’s second run in a C5 and when he started his handicap hurdle career he had a mark of 120. He races off 92 here. One day he may sluice in, and it could be today. If he can build on that last run he shouldn’t be far away in what is a shocker of a race. It won’t take much winning. So why isn’t he the ‘tip’…well we have an unexposed one who is more than twice the price, and I just had to go with him. I get far more angry with myself when leaving this type, than leaving a Number One London at 5s, even when they do drift to 12s and win well like yesterday.. so…

Alfred Roller… I suspect the market will guide and any drift come race time will probably ensure my eyes focus on the Vaughan horse during the race..The horse is 0/7,0p in his career, most of those when big prices in novice/maiden hurdles, which suggests the aim was to build up his confidence/experience, and play the handicapping game. Or that he isn’t very good.

He’s had a break, what a certain RUK analyst would call ‘the pause that refreshes’, after a PU effort. This is only his 3rd handicap run, he drops in trip (23f at a stiff Exeter on gs may have been far too testing) and.. drops into a Class 5 for the first time. It is also his first run ever on a sound surface, with no soft in the official description. Who knows, he may now bounce of this ground and win pulling double. He could. And therefore at 12s I had to have a nibble. He could just be useless but hopefully you agree there is enough there for some interest at that price. That PU may have been due to a problem, and they may have gone easy on him at home/easing him back here. That’s where the market may guide. It may not. Sometimes it doesn’t have a clue, but with this type of profile a big drift would concern me.

Lightly raced and doing a few things differently… break / down in class/down in trip/first run with no soft in going.

The break… Jonjo is 4/18,8p with his handicap hurdlers at Southwell returning after 60+ days off. The profit is low which suggests most are very short/well punted, so we shall see. Trainer and jockey are 4/16,6p in C5 handicap hurdles. And Jonjo’s are going ok, 1/21,7p last 14 days.. plenty of close/decent placed efforts, and the more fancied horses have generally run their races.

So, that’s the case for him. He may be useless (likely), he may not be fit, he may need the run etc. But given that profile, at 12/1, I will have a stab. And if he doesn’t win hopefully Number One London sluices home.

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Recap on yesterday…

One of ‘those days’ for section 2.. bet of the day + notes… picking the wrong one of the two… but I can live with that. Happy enough that Souls In The Wind wasn’t worth full confidence in the context of her price, this morning. 5s, 11/2, didn’t seem overly generous to my eyes given her recent form. But, as per notes a case could be made. She drifted to 12s and won well. Who knows what I would have done were she 12s this morning, but I think I know in my own head the answer to that! As it was simply price that put me off. Oh well.

My Idea.. well an example of what this approach is about. It appears a couple of you backed him at 14s (minus whatever R4 was, 10p maybe) and he technically qualified on the Jumps price strategy… 10/1-25/1 on prices I enter next to the horse. That has been a profitable approach since inception..but as per link above is a bumpy ride. I personally don’t back them all systematically- maybe I should start! And I did look at him…and in my own mind couldn’t make a case. I left the race. At least two of you were more than happy to have a go, and were well rewarded. That’s how it goes. I am not sat here fretting that I didn’t back him. I can live with the fact I didn’t. If you beat yourself up with missed winners, it can be a torturous game at times. (the worst ones of course are when you back a system, and miss a winner! We have all been there, and will be again) As I have said a few times, with any luck you can be happy with your own betting bank over time.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

None.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Yesterday’s Video, if you missed it 🙂

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RESULTS

Just a word on the Jumps (all jumps,inc Summer) so far… they make for eye popping reading really, profit wise…

Strategy # 1 (G1/3 10/1+..on morning prices,bet placed, or BFSP 11.00+ to catch the ‘drifters’ from morning prices)

Since 13th Aug: 4 bets / 2 wins / +30 early|Bog / +30 BFSP

2017 to 3rd Sept: 80 bets / 14 wins / +104 early|Bog / +129 BFSP

 

Strategy #2 (10/1-25/1 on morning prices entered next to horse, bet placed, SP irrelevant)

Since 13th Aug: 26 bets / 5 wins / 8 places / +57 early|Bog (BFSP tbc)

2017: 492 bets / 48 wins/ +240 early|Bog (BFSP tbc, was a bit below but decent up to 13th Aug)

 

Strategy #3 (Elite Squad)

Since 13th Aug: 26 bets / 7 wins / 9 places / +47.25 points early|Bog

2017: 78 bets / 13 wins / 27 places / +37 early|Bog

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I mean if you had backed everything, inc multiple quals (of which there are plenty across those three I suspect) that would be around +407 points. Or +£1020 odd to £2.50 win bets. Blimey. 25% of that would be decent every year, just for the jumpers 🙂 On we go. There has been plenty of profit to mine, and however you have done so hopefully you are happy with your own progress.

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Flat : to follow – i’ll update links in Key also.

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

9 Responses

  1. following on from the unmatched bets at bfsp discussion yesterday my bet on My Idea in the 4-35 H “disappeared” , i know i placed the bet as i keep a record of the prices i ask for (23’s in this case) and take sp was ticked. anyway to cut a long story short after a long conversation (rant) i have been given a £20 sportsbook credit as a good will gesture and a promise that my comments about this incident and bets not being matched at bfsp will be passed on much higher, i’ll keep you posted with any feedback i get.

  2. Hi Josh, forgive me, I’m still learning and its a bit after the event, but that My Idea yesterday was listed as “micro” but I don’t see an attachment I think for Maurice Barnes or the trainer. What is the “micro” and “going” systems you allude to above please? I1/G1/H1 I get etc..

    Thanks, Paul

  3. Hi Paul,
    That simply refers to the main stats guides… have a look through the two links at the bottom of the Key.. ‘main stats guides’ and that will become clear.

    The template for each track stats is 1. a look at all handicaps, for jumps hncp hurdles / chases… and then the second part of the track template looks at ‘micros’ – they are my own unique (generally) micro angles for said trainer at course, that’s all that code (micro) means. I shouldn’t concern you when written above and I suppose I put it in so that members know the source of the qualifier, so they can refer back to stats pack if they so wanted.

    In reality you just need to concern yourself with 1. the horse listed 2. any strategies you follow… red symbols, purple ES, or in case of Jumps strat 3, whether 10/1-25/1 on morning prices as entered next to horse. Alfred Roller would be an example of that.

    And of course you yourself are always free to look through any horse in section 1 and make your own assessment as to it’s chance, or say attach a confidence level to said strategy qualifier, if you wanted. Or you just pick your strategies, and back them to 1 point level stakes, starting small, £2, £2.50, and building up over time. (with any luck!)

    Josh

  4. Should have posted last night, was looking through the 3:00 on geegeez after watching your great video, but Hong Kong adventure is relatively unexposed moving up in trip down in class has Johnson booked and the geegeez trainer stats all make for pleasant reading, now if only I took the price last night!! Anyway insightful video, has kind of refreshed my thoughts as I get back into this horse racing lark coming into to jumps season, you know my thoughts on the flat Josh! Seems with the strategies you’ve found a solid entry point for anyone looking to start from scratch, also just wondering about the “Twister” season will you be posting up his runners everyday or could we vote on a couple of the micros you suggested to follow?

    1. Hi Jack,

      Yep he has been well backed, looks like today may be the day…albeit that last run was on ok at best, this is a poor race mind. Fav is certainly beatable.

      Clearly I haven’t nailed my own approach on the flat as the test tip stats would indicate. Couple of decent winners and they look much better, that type wins plenty of races from Section 1, just need to home in on a few more of them myself!!

      Yea the strategies seem to be doing well, and certainly provide that solid foundation..whether for systematic punting or as you say the entry point into delving into a horse/race deeper, whatever you prefer.. most do a mix of both I imagine.

      Twister Season.. all 6 micros are saved and I plan to highlight them all… I am anticipating plenty of cross over so the number of qualifiers should be ok, just backing them the once say.

      Last year I took a ‘notes’ approach with him, rather than a micro…which worked well, but was a bit confusing to get to grips with and was more work than I planned my end, trawling through runners each day. so, we shall stick to those micros in link in Key, and see how they get on.

      Josh

        1. Thanks Josh! Yeah really looking forward to getting back at it and great to see how far this little blog has come! Speak soon..

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