Members Daily Post: 30/08/17 (complete)

Section 1 +test zone + bet of day

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Lingfield

4.40 – Transmitting (micro TJC) 30  H3 I3 G3 7/2 WON 7/2>7/4

 

Catterick

3.20- Lagenda (all hncps+ 3yo+, + micro age) 30 9/1 2nd 9/2 

4.20 – Bold Spirit (3yo+) G3 10/1 2nd 9/2 

5.20- Bapak Asmara (all hncps, 3yo+) 30 20/1 UP

 

Muss

2.30 –

Foresight (all hncps + micro age) 30 16/1 UP 25/1

Ella (micro TJC + micro going) G1 11/1 2nd 11/1

3.30 – Bogart (all hncps + 3yo+) H3 I1 G1 7/2 UP 7/2

4.30- La Bacouetteuse (micro dist) 14 H1 I1 9/4 UP

 

SUMMER JUMPS

Worcester

5.05 – Sonneofpresenting (micro age) H1 I1 2/1 WON 15/8 

5.35 – Katy P (all hncps) ES I1 11/2 WON 6/1

7.35 – Owners Day (hncp hurdle) 14,30 I1 16/1

 

Bonus (novice hncps)

4.35 – Earls Fort I3 16/1 UP 11/1

6.35 – Shanksforamillion H1 13/8 

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers from the report HERE

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to 27/08/17) 

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to 13/08/17) 

Test Zone:  | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>> C Appleby/York Ebor: Read HERE>>>

Welcome Email/Note: READ HERE>>>

Main Stats Guides (used for section 1 quals) : Summer Stats: Read HERE>>> | Jumps (all non summer only tracks): Read HERE>>

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 6/63,22p, -1.9) (Jumps: 9/62, +25.5) (total: 16/125, +23.6)

3.20 Catt – Lagenda – 1 point win – 10/1 2nd 9/2… hmm.. no real excuse there.. he was well backed and I/we beat the market comfortably…I think he may have done just a tad too much on the front end again. He ran well and battled when coming under pressure. His time should come soon with any luck. 

Hmm it looks another tricky day today and as it turns out it wouldn’t have mattered which horse I put up yesterday. I have been scratching my head for a while with today’s runners… of the bigger priced ones I think this is the one who may run best but we shall see. Ryan’s yard has hit some consistency after his troubled start to the campaign and this one’s mark has been coming down. He is also well drawn for one who races prominently, which in general is where you want to be at this track. It is also possible that he did far too much too soon in his last race, having got into a pace battle a long way from home. I was on the search for him ‘doing something different’ and the headgear switch could be the way in… blinkers replacing CP. He has yet to win a handicap having won a 7f maiden but has run numerous credible raced from higher marks and a repeat of a few placed runs would put him in the mix. The yard is in form and with any luck the blinkers eek out some more. He could make all or in any case will be up there. At 10s I thought worth a stab.

The two treble rated horses look of interest to a point… Transmitting…well he gets the eye shield and is still a maiden after a few goes. It is a poor quality level and nothing would surprise but the headgear needs to work, which it may do. Bogart looks more convincing of those two.. I thought about ‘tipping’ him but he is only 1/38 and at 7/2 that just put me off I think. But he is running well and well drawn near the rail. He should be up there for a long way and with any luck will see them off. He is a double top rated also and on the speed figures looks solid.

I stared at Foresight for a time also but talked myself out of him… he does step up in trip and gets the tongue tie on. He has had another break and I don’t know if that is a positive or a negative! Maybe he’s had a wind op or something, albeit I don’t think you’d try the TT then. He has just been running really poorly. Maybe he will now benefit from the yard being in better form and it will be interesting if there is market support. But I talked myself out of his chances. He has a fair bit to prove now and as yet hasn’t showed anything in handicaps. This is only his 11th flat start and probably one I could live with winning. It looks an open race so we shall see. The market will guide I suspect.

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NOTE… Kevin Ryan… the all hncps stats for his runners (at Muss) are very close to the ES criteria…use that info as you please… there was a cut off for +15 BFSP to qualify on the ES criteria, his were +14. All the other numbers fit.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jockey CD

2.30 Muss – Billy Roberts (any)

5.20 Catt- Landing Night

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Results Update:

Flat Strategies: Up to 27/08/17 : Read HERE>>> 

(I need to update BFSP but I think the early/bog figures are correct)

Jumps Strategies: To follow..

Jumps Elite Squad… were -10.55 up to 13th.

Up to close of play Sunday 27th…. 63 bets / 9 wins / 22p / +6.7

Yesterday they were 1/2,2p, +15 I think… so now… 65 bets / 10 wins / 23 p / +21.7…

So a near 32 point turnaround in a couple of weeks, which is what happens when no odds caps. And very timely given the Flat ES slump, which was expected given the start.

That means both Elite Squads- flat + jumps – are on around +59 points since introduced around the 22nd June. I would take that every 10 weeks or so. In truth I would probably take that every 6 months, that would be a nice annual points return.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

29 Responses

  1. Interesting 2YO running tomorrow in the 3.10 at Lingfield – Dream of Delphi. On Hcp debut for Haggas, shown nothing so far but up in trip today and with blinkers on for the first time. Crucially Jo Gordon is booked and when she teams up with Haggis they are 2/3/3 places. Haggis has a 21% s/r with his 2YOs at Linfield in Aug with a 50% place s/r. Also looks ok on the breeding front with the sire’s prodg having a 9% s/r and 25% place s/r over C&D. At 12/1 currently it looks a bet to me.

        1. Wallop super picking, well done James. The ATR ‘experts’ didn’t even mention him pre race! A feather in your cap.

          1. Was surprised there was little money for it or any mention of it given the trainer & jockey and their stats when combining, that was the key for me this time

      1. Welcome back Tony! How was the cruise?? (or holiday generally) Was it Canada or somewhere…hope you had a good time..

  2. Good Morning

    Got just one at the top end of the market today.

    4.00 Muss – Take A Turn 11/4

    Been in my tracker form when finishing 4th at Lingfield four starts ago, as won two of his last three starts and looks to be progressing on quit good. His 6th at Thirsk I’ll put a line through as it was over 1m4f and in my notes got him a 1m – 1m2f horse, so drop in distance to a mile should be ok. he is running with a 6lb pen, think he is still well in here though. He is the class horse in this low grade race for me. Dangers could be Alnasl and Prancing Oscar, but who knows in a 3yo only cl6 anything could happen haha.

    GL all

    Gavin

  3. Yes Josh I thought kevin Ryan
    Might be the man to follow today with the the bet of the day well backed in market hope you took a price

    1. yep took 10s – looks like I picked out the best of the biggies in any case, if the market is any guide. will declare at 8s when he romps home as that was around for enough time I think. And in any case the job is done… backing what could be a 4s shot at 8s+10s is the way to do it, but with any luck he settles in the headgear and sees them all off. He may have a double today, you’d think with Bogart but time will tell.

  4. Considering your bet and the £60 I had on the fav from my main tipster that was about as bad as it could get.

    1. Ugh… fav very unlucky there…well, to a point… he was a hold up horse in a big enough field so always need some luck.. but he would have won that with a clear run.. Lagenda… has just done a bit too much up the top need again, on a track with a bend and an easy lead should see him back in the winners enclosure.

    2. Nick, I think I might have asked before and then missed your reply. Do you mind me asking who your main tipster is?

      Now that I’ve shelved the good Dr, I’m thinking about adding another tipster or two.

    1. well I didn’t really touch on it at all! Take that as it is, I don’t like running commentaries on every runner… I did look through for ‘bet of the day’ purposes and if something at the prices looked more interesting to me than the Ryan runner they would have been put up. With any luck a couple of winners there , esp the ES. Nick made a decent enough case for Earls Fort.. does step up in trip which could unlock more … but I wanted to see a bit more over fences, esp jumping… is an unexposed chaser though. So who knows.

        1. Doesn’t look a natural over fences as yet, and the slower pace didn’t seem to help – you’d want to see more as a chaser before getting involved. I can see why you were interested but I may not have agree with you this time! But it’s easy to say that after the race.

          1. Yeah I just found too many likable stats I guess. I still want to see him ridden more prominently. Maybe need to wait for a headgear change but I will probably stay clear until he shows something. Unless they’re just doing this to get his hurdle mark down.

  5. What are your thoughts on owners day Josh? And also what do you all think generally about ‘cashing out’?
    Cheers
    Doug

    1. Owners Day… well I suspect the market would guide… he does just look out of sorts and I don’t think the ground was an excuse the last day… but the yard is in form… 3rd run after a break and he is lightly raced…also steps up in trip.. none of those things are a reason for the poor performance LTO (i.e. he wasn’t that poor because he needs this trip) But, given he is lightly raced you can never fall of your seat if they bounce back. Maybe the better ground is needed or anything could have happened the last day. You’d want a price and you get it.

      Cashing Out – that is tricky… I am more on the ‘you should never cash out’ side of things but it depends on the offer versus the total return. I do think you should never place the bet if not willing to see it through… but if you were offered say 200, against a max if it wins of 350/400 say, there is a decision to make there..you would be happy with the 200 profit and could live with not winning the other 200.. but if the potential return for sticking it out is ‘life changing’ you have to stick it out…

      Remember that colossus bet over Xmas… guy cashed out for 3k, bet came in and would have won 3 million or so I think. Ouch.

    2. I think using the cash out option with the bookie is a bad idea – they generally pinch 10% when you do so, and they generally base the cash out on the original odds, whereas your pick might have shortened.

      Using the exchange to lay would make more sense. It would mean you could choose just to lay off part of the bet. It’d also give you the option to lay at lower prices in running.

  6. Thanks fella, basically got a 10p ew super Yankee with 16, 6 and 4/1 winners, if OD wins will pay over 1500, cash out is 170. Thinking of taking the c o and then having 50 on OD. Or reading what you’ve just written just leaving it!! Whatever happens it’s a profit!

    1. Well I won’t say what you should do but you clearly put him in for a reason. I would say that as yet I haven’t backed him but I wouldn’t be shocked if he ran better… could have been ground, yard is flying, tongue tie on, step up in trip. Depends if he loses…would you be gutted at not winning anything…or more gutted if not seeing it out if he wins… that cash out / placing a decent bet on him (BFSP could be decent size maybe, if not backed) could be a good half way solution! But your money. You win near enough 1k with that option, or 120 if loses. We are all different with things like that!

  7. Just arrived in bookies and noticed he is joint top rated on RPR too! I think there are enough ‘doing things different’ things to leave it running, will still be 50 odd quid profit even if it is out of frame! Thanks Josh!

    1. Well that’s a good profit and a couple of nights in the pub (or one very long night!) whatever happens haha. Good luck, I’ll be cheering him on.

  8. Got squeezed out on bend which didn’t help but would not have lived with winner. Canny ride that! No complaints from me, been a good day and thanks as always Josh!

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