Free Daily Post: 29/08/17 (complete)

‘bet of the day’ + Notes…

No micros qualifiers again today, no tips etc. It will soon liven up a bit more on these pages when the jumps gets going.

It was just my luck that I didn’t share the Jumps strategy picks yesterday as they included a 16/1 winner, and instead I posted a load of duds from the Flat. Moving on…

I have just repeated ‘section 2′ from the Members’ Post below, to use as you please…

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 6/62,22p, -0.9) (Jumps: 9/62, +25.5) (total: 16/124, +24.6)

4.50 Epsom – Epsom Secret – 1 point win – 12/1 (bet365/BV)

This one looks most interesting at the prices I think and is the only flat qualifier in said race – so no danger of picking the wrong one! This three year old is lightly raced and only having his fourth flat start. He gained his first win when upped to 10f two starts back and is thoroughly unexposed at the distance. He is 0/7 on the AW and I am not sure he stayed 12f the last day. He does need to step up in class here but it looks a weak enough race with many seemingly having questions to answer/or not in great form – bar the fav who does look the main danger. But, on only his fourth turf start and second at the distance, I was happy to roll the dice. Trainer/jockey are 3/12 in handicaps at the track in recent years which is another slight positive. We shall see how he goes…

I did ponder Cape Diem Lady (3.45 Epsom) whose trainer is in flying form…that length of break usually concerns me unless the horse has a profile of running well in said ‘rest pattern’ – which she does. So no issues there…in fact some of her lesser runs could be put down to returning to the track too soon. She moves back up in trip which is the main way in and has only had 2 runs at 7f before, winning once. (her only win) So, a case can be made. She has to prove she is a C4 animal having had a few goes, but none over 7f as yet. The selection got the nod because he is more lightly raced but she could out-run her odds and I may have to throw something at her just in case.

***

A decent 16/1 winner (and a nice drift) for the Jumps ES yesterday hopefully wets the appetite for the months ahead. After a slow start they are certainly finding their feet now and long may it continue. The jumps stats to date have always found more bigger priced winners than the flat so we could have an exciting winter.

**

GL with any bets

Josh

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

2 Responses

  1. Is there anyone on this site who could tell me which trainers horses
    move most in the market in non handicaps as I have a simple trading system that exploits best odds

    I back a horse and that is almost the same to lay off on betfair and then layoff straight away on
    the exchange.

    eg I backed I’am a star this morning with sunbets and laid off at 4.1
    when the horse drifted to 6/1 I had a big margin to play with

    £100 win at 3/1 laid £100 at 4.1
    so if the horse didn’t shorten in the market a small win/loss
    was safely locked in
    but on the off I had £100 going on at 6/1 with only a liability of £310
    so a potential £290 profit.
    when the horse was 6/1 with the bookies it was 7/1 to lay
    so laid for £35 and made adecent profit

    so a list of trainers whos horses were the most volatile in the betting market would be
    useful

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