Free Daily Post: 05/08/17 (complete)

Stewards Cup + Stakes Stats/Shortlist…

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Flat 2017: 60+ Days

2.05 New – To Eternity (any)

 

**

The Stewards Cup

Stats…

20/20 aged 3-6

20/20 had won over 6f

10/10 running same class as LTO… 10/10 ran in C2 LTO

10/10 running at same distance or down in distance from LTO

10/10 1-4 wins over 6f

10/10 0-1 runs at track

10/10 ran in a handicap LTO

**

Shortlist: Sir Dancelot / Al Qahwa / Stake Acclaim / Brian The Snail/ Mobsta 

There are three other stats of interest… Last win NOT 3-6 starts ago, OR Not lower than LTO, Not stall 5-9 (albeit not much logic)… Mobsta is the only one to also tick all those boxes, the others failing on one or two of the others.

Some caution… as this race has been run on good to firm/good for the last 10 years, and this ground is very different…so that could throw a spanner in the works as race conditions are different to every other running. But, my focus will be on those 5… I will have to back Mobsta, whatever my head my say! Brian The Snail gets blinkers and they worked wonders for Fahey at Ascot, with his 50/1 (137 BFSP) winner for us last week. Some interesting ones there.

**

 

The Stewards Stakes (consolation)

Not Aged 3

Same or only 1lb lower than last race

Not 3-4 handicap wins only

Ran in race worth 30k or less LTO

 

Shortlist: Pettochside / Lucky Beggar / Stellarta 

 

**

Guest Tips/Race Preview: Speculate To Accumulate 

2 Growl – 1 point each way @ 8/1

6 Donjuan Triumphant – 1 point each way @ 18/1

24 Al Qahwa – 1 point each way @ 14/1

*5 Intisaab – 1/2 point each way @ 20/1

*10 Rauccous – 1/2 point each way @ 16/1

(* see below for staking plans for Intisaab and Rauccous)

(All Bookies go odds to 5th / Lads/Coral/PP go odds to 6th / SkyBet odds to 7th)

———–

We found a placed horse again yesterday with Withernsea, and again left the winner on the cutting room floor with Master Of The World discarded at the final cut in favour of another low drawn veteran (GMHopkins) who never got in to the race. Whether Ryan Moore rode a brilliant ride on the winner, or just got lucky as a gap opened up; is purely down to your assessment of the jockey and the race, one sure thing, the horse was good enough and capitalised.

The Stewards Cup today, 27 runners, we aim to do the treble after the Wokingham and Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot both won by selections of ours with 25/1 shots (Out Do and Zhui Feng) and both with somewhat controversial (at the time) assessments of the draw, we went extreme high with ZF and extreme low with OD, and the lesson to learn in these races is, don’t put all of your eggs in one basket. The fact is that at Goodwood, you normally look high, stands side against the rail, but normally we are racing on Good ground or better, all week there has been a major far side draw bias in the straight Course races, so surely that is the place to be?, the middle resembles a rice field and the stands side is hopeless?.

The bottom line is that if you go with 10 year stats you go high, if you go with 3 day visuals you go low, the middle looks; the place to avoid.  What we can’t answer is this – nothing has yet had the balls, since the rain; to run up against the  usually favoured stands rail. The races have been decimated by non runners, so it has not been a hard choice to follow the pack to the far rail, this race is fundamentally different, in the those drawn 20+ cannot all go that way, if they do they will invariably run down the worst of the ground in the middle. The only question is, how many drawn 10-20/25; will act like sheep and move over the far side, and lose lengths in the process and how many will take a gamble?

We simply “don’t know”, what I do know is that if I owned or trained a horse draw 20+ I would be telling the jockey;take the risk, go high, stands side, stay there and lets roll the dice…..we shall see.

The other fact is we have a consolation race earlier on the Card that could either test the logic, or leave majorructions in the market, we can’t wait for that, nor should we pre-judge anything but my analysis has included the draw

————

There are 27 runners with Hoofalong withdrawn. I whittled half away after about an hour of deliberation and from the list of 14 I whittled these from my final cut. Danzeno has a bit too much weight I think and not totally sure about the Going here with that weight; Projection is drawn in 27 and with a profile favouring Good ground and no massive value not for me today, Sir Dancealot, similar concerns about the draw and value for me, Mobsta, should enjoy the cut but not sure about his current well being; Eastern Impact will run its usual consistent mark but I’d sum up not quite good enough to win this from current handicap mark, like many of Fahey’s “Saturday runners” needs handicapper to relent a little bit. Upstaging caught my eye in these conditions but not quite strongly enough.

That left me with a final “attack list” of 8 horses and now it gets really tough but the final cut sees up lose the following-:

Shanghai Glory is drawn low but in my final analysis has to prove itself with a mark this high and well over 100?

Perfect Pasture is my idea of a live outsider but stall 17 really concerns me as does the handicap mark?

Outback Traveller, has an excellent CV, Cowell trains but drawn in 28, just does not make the final cut.

So, I am left with 5, ideally I want 4, and you may want to only play 4, but with that earlier race to look at and consider we have to keep an option open to the last possible second I feel, regarding any late draw bias/ground swing.

My top 3 are set in my mind as-:

GROWL – drawn in stall 8, has obvious option of far rail, could though have early tactical option, ticks every other box in terms of handicap mark; proven in soft; ideal trip and looks prepared for the race to me.

DONJUAN TRIUMPHANT – been on my list for this race for a while, finally gets optimum conditions; drawn in stall 20, he is my pick in the 20+ draw category, he would just I think have scope to make the very early switch to far side if that looked the only option, but he ticks every box and Balding’s horses are on fire at the moment.

AL QAHWA is another who gets his conditions and has been in my tracker with copious notes for this race, gets a nice draw in stall 9, next to Growl and I think they can help, rather than hinder each other, ticks every box.

My final choice is between INTISAAB drawn in stall 1, consistent. slid, nice mark and enough form in soft to not be totally put off, can certainly use the far rail IF it remains the place to be and RAUCCOUS who is drawn in stall 26, he would be my second best rated drawn high and comes from a Yard never to be discounted in this type of race. If you only want 4, watch the consolation and perm one of the pair based on any obvious draw bias, if not, do what I’m going to do and split the stake!

—-

We have not been able to emulate the 5 out of 5 of last year at Glorious Goodwood, but conditions have been totally different; we have hit the cross bar with at least a placed horse in each race and found a winner with Good Omen on Thursday. The logic of The Elite Service remains the quest for enough big priced winners to make a nice profit over a season, to pack enough “places” to consolidate that profit, to have some fun along the way; and fundamentally, if we can, to help your knowledge and understanding of big field races, and to offer some logic and suggested strategies, that may help you and guide you in the future. The target is profit, the enemy as alwaysis the Bookmaker, and the battle is to stay ahead of him/her and to come out on top.

That is the 4 big Festivals done for another year, we need a good result today to come out of Goodwood in profit as we have done at Cheltenham and Aintree with a nice return and Royal Ascot with a spectacular return.

Next week, we return to “the bread and butter” with one selected Saturday race although we may have a midweek dabble at my favourite track with one of the midweek races in a few weeks time. Back next Saturday

Good Luck

Ian

**

 

That will be all for today, good luck with any bets,

Josh

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

21 Responses

  1. 3.35 Goodwood
    Stewards’ Cup

    555 runners – 20 years

    6f wins, NOT 1-4: 1/180
    Max win 7f: 1/128
    Handicap runs, >25: 1/117
    Handicap places, >10: 1/118

    267 runners – 10 years

    6f wins, NOT 2-4: 1/134
    Career places, >10: 1/119
    Last win, Class 3 or lower: 1/79
    Last win, non-handicap: 1/83

    Al Qahwa (14/1, 7 places with Sky) seems to fit all of mine too.
    The other two to side with seem to be Solar Flair (50/1, 6 places PP) and Outback Traveller (28/1, 6 places Ladbrokes) who fit the last 10 years.

    🙂

    1. Most seem to be going with a low draw but they are opening up some new ground and so that can change things. Better to be high draw than middle I reckon?

  2. 1.50 Goodwood
    18 years – 398 runners

    Last run, 10th or lower: 0/90,8p
    No place last 4 runs: 0/82
    Handicap places, 3 or fewer: 0/91
    6f runs, 10 or fewer: 0/142!
    6f places,3 or fewer: 1/135

    10 years – 245 runners
    Last 5 runs, no top 2: 1/61
    Class 2 or higher runs, <4: 0/85
    Career places, 5 or fewer: 1/56
    Last win <6f: 1/60

    I think Gin In The Inn (8/1) is the only one ticking all the boxes.
    Of the 10 year qualifiers, George Bowen (14/1), Lucky Beggar (22/1) and Goring (28/1) look the best.
    5 or 6 places around for the EWers.

    🙂

    1. I am on Gin in the Inn Chris. I also like Tommy G at a price. Both have improvement in them I think and may be able to show it on the ground today?

  3. My NAP at the start of the week from the Johnston stable would have been SOLDIER IN ACTION. I know some think the ground has gone against him, but there is enough evidence to think he will handle it. His run last time at Haydock was over-shadowed by a shock 25/1 winner, but if you watch that race back you will see him being apparently swamped at the 2 furlong pole and staying on incredibly bravely to grab a clear runner up spot after being prominent over the final 6 furlongs.

    He steps up in trip here to 14 furlongs but drawn in stall 2 should get a prominent position and if he can “get a blow” in to the straight looks a classic stable “come and have a go at me” type and it’ll take a decent horse to pass him. There are plenty of dangers like Saigon City; Platitude and the O’Brien Jnr horse but may be Getback In Paris is the biggest danger.

    I’ll have a bit of each way shrapnel though on Soldier In Action!

    1. Having tracked the Johnston horses this week they are going OK but not great. I am a bit put off by that. However you make a good case and at a price may be worth a stab?

  4. Gosden system:
    2.05 Newmarket, To Eternity, 7/1.

    Haggas system:
    3.35 Goodwood, Raucous, 18/1.
    4.30 Doncaster, Zwayyan, 3/1.

      1. Here you go Martin…

        Not sure exactly when I began posting what so I’ve just done the records from 1st July to date of the systems I remember.

        Gosden : 4/18, 22%, -4 pts.
        Haggas : 9/24, 38%, +15 pts.
        Fahey : 4/24, 17%, -4 pts.
        Hannon: 1/13, 8%, -7pts
        Appleby, 1/5, 20%, 0.
        Fahey (pretty sure I started posting these in June): 1/11, 9%,-7 pts.

  5. Josh When I applied the trends I also came up with Projection (not proven on soft and possibly poor draw),Outback Traveller(same 2 caveats) and Shanghai Glory – who I think has a lot going for him
    No doubt the market will flip on its head when the consolation race is run ,assuming it shows a definite draw bias, but for now Shanghai Glory and Al Qahwa my 2 against the field – tho the eye keeps going back to Mobsta

    1. Hey.. to clarify .. what trends? my list above? .. I used HRB ‘as a system’ with the stats/trends above and the shortlist were the only ones to hit those stats, according to HRB anyway!
      GL with wherever your pins fall, tough races as always.
      Josh

  6. Heartbreak for Tyrrell yesterday after he led for all but the last stride of the 2m1f race at Bath after getting backed from 16/1 into 7/2 (40p R4) and just finishing 2nd.

    Busiest day for me for quite some time (so this will probably go horribly wrong). Starting with the strongest bets I like the look of Saigon City in the 14:25 at Goodwood who looks a solid e/w bet with most bookies paying 4 places. Tipped up last time when he won at Newmarket beating Oriental Fox who has since won at Royal Ascot. Only up 5lbs for that I still think he is well treated considering two starts ago he was 2 lengths behind Chemical Charge and ahead of Muntahaa and Frontiersman all of which are rated in the mid 110s whilst only getting 3lbs and 6lbs from the two behind him. I suspect this will have been the plan and the break will not be an issue neither will the ground.

    Moving on to the 21:00 at Hamilton I want to be on Fivehundredmiles. Didn’t run his race LTO but I suspect that was a sharpener for this given his best runs this season have been off shorter breaks. Before that he ran a good 2nd over course and sitance in a class 4. The form of the race has been franked with the winner following up in a class 4, the 3rd winning the Carlisle Bell and 4th also winning. The time before he won over course and distance in this class beating Amy Blair who is now 13lbs worse off. The booking of Ffrench was interesting considering he is 2/5 for the trainer and was on when the stable had it right off with a gamble on Wee Jock so the trainer trusts him to get the job done. He qualifies on Josh’s flat systems (and is a triple ratings qualifier which do well)

    Moving on to Thirsk I am keeping the faith with Kings Pavillion in the Summer Cup (16:00). Tipped up 2 starts ago in the above mentioned Carlisle Bell where he finished 2nd to Carnageo from a bad draw. He gets a 2lbs pull with that rival. He has been running consistently in hot races all year (4 starts ago within 2 lengths of George William and G K Chesterton, 3 starts a couple of lengths of Nicholas T who went on to win 2 class 2s, 2 starts ago the 3rd has won a class 3 at Goodwood, last time the 2nd has since won a class 3). I like that Curtis gets back on here given he rides the track well. Barron likes to target this race and is 2/10, 5p in his career so I am hoping this has been the plan.

    In the Stewards Cup I like the look of Brian the Snail. Fits the trends and is a stakes horse which hasn’t been putting it on track. Apparently they have treated an issue with a soft palate and he gets the blinkers on here. He looks to be drawn on the correct side of the track with most of the pace drawn low to middle. Gets a nice low weight with his 3yr old allowance. Three year olds have won the race for the past two years (the previous 2 years it went to a 4 yr old) so you want an unexposed on here. I thought it was significant that he is the only Godolphin runner in the race given they have certainly taken more of an interest in such races in the past couple of years. I have also had a saver on Al Qawha who is probably the most solid choice however I am concerned he doesn’t have enough in hand to win this.

    Moving on to the 17:20 I thought Jufn was a huge price considering he has come out of a ridiculously hot race where the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 6th not only won but all did so by a minimum of 2 lengths (the 8th also won). He has a good draw, wont mind the ground and should run prominently and I think will definitely out run his price. He is also one of the more unexposed runners in the field. The favourite could be absolutely anything but he has only had 2 runs in his career. I guess he jockey is a slight question mark but he did have a winner for the trainer less than a month ago.

    Lastly I want a small bet on Kind of Beauty in the 15:25 at Thrisk. At the start of the season Palmer thought he could be good enough to be running an Oaks trial. Now she has clearly disappointed but he cant have gotten it that wrong. I thought it was interesting that he sends her to track he has absolutely pillaged at (3/7, 5p in handicaps overall including 2/2 in the past 12 months). The cheekpieces also go here. Curtis who rides well here gets the ride and I thought she was overpriced.

  7. Some each way selections for today – from my tracker, 2.05 Nkt Hestina (going well over jumps at present and goes off here at a big price); 2.25 Go Arch Villain (Has a profile that allows for further improvement); 3.35 Go Projection ( Cracking run LTO which forces you to get involved again); 5.20 Go Fire Tree (Easy winner LTO and should be more to come). I also like 4.35 Th Bertiewhittle; 3.35 Go Outback Traveller.

    Win bets – 4.25 Nkt Love Dreams; 3.00 Go Crystal Ocean.

    Good luck today.

  8. Hope your trends right about Lucky Beggar Josh given my main tipster has advised a decent sized bet and SDS has his first ever ride for the trainer. Just hope he gets his other runner to provide the pace otherwise it could be falsely run (which is why I have stayed clear).

  9. 2.25 Goodwood

    278 runners – 20 years:
    Last run, NOT 16-60 days: 1/65 (over a year lay off for the only winner)

    137 – 10
    Career places, <5: 0/39
    Last win, Class 4 or lower: 1/38

    1-2-6-8-10-14 are left which seems a lot so looking at season runs : 2-5 season runs are a big positive – leaves
    Blakeny Point (9/1), Platitude (10/1), Cleonte (22/1).

  10. 1 bet for me today so far 205 Newmarket Isabel de urbina. Profiled the race and this one fits the bill. Has to overcome the draw but can go well again here today on better ground that should help. Had we had a better draw id of been confident of this one being nailed on to least hit the frame but with the niggle of a poor draw im on w/p @9/2 betway (5.5 on the machine) and 2.2 bf. Writing this and see a N/R so expect the rain to have hit. Last run here was soft so we handle conditions if is the case so hopeful of a gd run.

  11. A head away from a 12/1 (17/1 BFSP) winner touching 1.12 in running but alas not to be.

    3.40 Chester

    254-19
    Last three NO top 4:1/59
    Not 1-6 handicap wins 1/76

    123-10
    No place last two runs 0/55
    Handicap places >8 1/60
    1-3 shorter wins 1/51

    Zlatan (11/2 )and Gabriel the tiger (9/1) look to tick all the boxes.

  12. 3.55 Galway 7f
    18 – 255

    Last place 2 or 3 runs ago: 1/74
    Last run prizemoney, 10.5K-50K: 2/111
    Last run, NOT 7f-1m0.5f: 2/78

    Applying the above would have found the winner every year since 2006 except 2008 when the only qualifier placed at 33/1. (10/51, 22p+19BFSP)
    Leaves the fav who is too short at 11/4 and three others who are all Ellison trained! Baraweez (8/1), Dream Walker (9/1) and Stipulate (25/1).

    🙂

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