Flat 2017: 60+ Days
2.05 New – To Eternity (any)
The Stewards Cup
20/20 aged 3-6
20/20 had won over 6f
10/10 running same class as LTO… 10/10 ran in C2 LTO
10/10 running at same distance or down in distance from LTO
10/10 1-4 wins over 6f
10/10 0-1 runs at track
10/10 ran in a handicap LTO
Shortlist: Sir Dancelot / Al Qahwa / Stake Acclaim / Brian The Snail/ Mobsta
There are three other stats of interest… Last win NOT 3-6 starts ago, OR Not lower than LTO, Not stall 5-9 (albeit not much logic)… Mobsta is the only one to also tick all those boxes, the others failing on one or two of the others.
Some caution… as this race has been run on good to firm/good for the last 10 years, and this ground is very different…so that could throw a spanner in the works as race conditions are different to every other running. But, my focus will be on those 5… I will have to back Mobsta, whatever my head my say! Brian The Snail gets blinkers and they worked wonders for Fahey at Ascot, with his 50/1 (137 BFSP) winner for us last week. Some interesting ones there.
The Stewards Stakes (consolation)
Not Aged 3
Same or only 1lb lower than last race
Not 3-4 handicap wins only
Ran in race worth 30k or less LTO
Shortlist: Pettochside / Lucky Beggar / Stellarta
Guest Tips/Race Preview: Speculate To Accumulate
2 Growl – 1 point each way @ 8/1
6 Donjuan Triumphant – 1 point each way @ 18/1
24 Al Qahwa – 1 point each way @ 14/1
*5 Intisaab – 1/2 point each way @ 20/1
*10 Rauccous – 1/2 point each way @ 16/1
(* see below for staking plans for Intisaab and Rauccous)
(All Bookies go odds to 5th / Lads/Coral/PP go odds to 6th / SkyBet odds to 7th)
We found a placed horse again yesterday with Withernsea, and again left the winner on the cutting room floor with Master Of The World discarded at the final cut in favour of another low drawn veteran (GMHopkins) who never got in to the race. Whether Ryan Moore rode a brilliant ride on the winner, or just got lucky as a gap opened up; is purely down to your assessment of the jockey and the race, one sure thing, the horse was good enough and capitalised.
The Stewards Cup today, 27 runners, we aim to do the treble after the Wokingham and Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot both won by selections of ours with 25/1 shots (Out Do and Zhui Feng) and both with somewhat controversial (at the time) assessments of the draw, we went extreme high with ZF and extreme low with OD, and the lesson to learn in these races is, don’t put all of your eggs in one basket. The fact is that at Goodwood, you normally look high, stands side against the rail, but normally we are racing on Good ground or better, all week there has been a major far side draw bias in the straight Course races, so surely that is the place to be?, the middle resembles a rice field and the stands side is hopeless?.
The bottom line is that if you go with 10 year stats you go high, if you go with 3 day visuals you go low, the middle looks; the place to avoid. What we can’t answer is this – nothing has yet had the balls, since the rain; to run up against the usually favoured stands rail. The races have been decimated by non runners, so it has not been a hard choice to follow the pack to the far rail, this race is fundamentally different, in the those drawn 20+ cannot all go that way, if they do they will invariably run down the worst of the ground in the middle. The only question is, how many drawn 10-20/25; will act like sheep and move over the far side, and lose lengths in the process and how many will take a gamble?
We simply “don’t know”, what I do know is that if I owned or trained a horse draw 20+ I would be telling the jockey;take the risk, go high, stands side, stay there and lets roll the dice…..we shall see.
The other fact is we have a consolation race earlier on the Card that could either test the logic, or leave majorructions in the market, we can’t wait for that, nor should we pre-judge anything but my analysis has included the draw
There are 27 runners with Hoofalong withdrawn. I whittled half away after about an hour of deliberation and from the list of 14 I whittled these from my final cut. Danzeno has a bit too much weight I think and not totally sure about the Going here with that weight; Projection is drawn in 27 and with a profile favouring Good ground and no massive value not for me today, Sir Dancealot, similar concerns about the draw and value for me, Mobsta, should enjoy the cut but not sure about his current well being; Eastern Impact will run its usual consistent mark but I’d sum up not quite good enough to win this from current handicap mark, like many of Fahey’s “Saturday runners” needs handicapper to relent a little bit. Upstaging caught my eye in these conditions but not quite strongly enough.
That left me with a final “attack list” of 8 horses and now it gets really tough but the final cut sees up lose the following-:
Shanghai Glory is drawn low but in my final analysis has to prove itself with a mark this high and well over 100?
Perfect Pasture is my idea of a live outsider but stall 17 really concerns me as does the handicap mark?
Outback Traveller, has an excellent CV, Cowell trains but drawn in 28, just does not make the final cut.
So, I am left with 5, ideally I want 4, and you may want to only play 4, but with that earlier race to look at and consider we have to keep an option open to the last possible second I feel, regarding any late draw bias/ground swing.
My top 3 are set in my mind as-:
GROWL – drawn in stall 8, has obvious option of far rail, could though have early tactical option, ticks every other box in terms of handicap mark; proven in soft; ideal trip and looks prepared for the race to me.
DONJUAN TRIUMPHANT – been on my list for this race for a while, finally gets optimum conditions; drawn in stall 20, he is my pick in the 20+ draw category, he would just I think have scope to make the very early switch to far side if that looked the only option, but he ticks every box and Balding’s horses are on fire at the moment.
AL QAHWA is another who gets his conditions and has been in my tracker with copious notes for this race, gets a nice draw in stall 9, next to Growl and I think they can help, rather than hinder each other, ticks every box.
My final choice is between INTISAAB drawn in stall 1, consistent. slid, nice mark and enough form in soft to not be totally put off, can certainly use the far rail IF it remains the place to be and RAUCCOUS who is drawn in stall 26, he would be my second best rated drawn high and comes from a Yard never to be discounted in this type of race. If you only want 4, watch the consolation and perm one of the pair based on any obvious draw bias, if not, do what I’m going to do and split the stake!
We have not been able to emulate the 5 out of 5 of last year at Glorious Goodwood, but conditions have been totally different; we have hit the cross bar with at least a placed horse in each race and found a winner with Good Omen on Thursday. The logic of The Elite Service remains the quest for enough big priced winners to make a nice profit over a season, to pack enough “places” to consolidate that profit, to have some fun along the way; and fundamentally, if we can, to help your knowledge and understanding of big field races, and to offer some logic and suggested strategies, that may help you and guide you in the future. The target is profit, the enemy as alwaysis the Bookmaker, and the battle is to stay ahead of him/her and to come out on top.
That is the 4 big Festivals done for another year, we need a good result today to come out of Goodwood in profit as we have done at Cheltenham and Aintree with a nice return and Royal Ascot with a spectacular return.
Next week, we return to “the bread and butter” with one selected Saturday race although we may have a midweek dabble at my favourite track with one of the midweek races in a few weeks time. Back next Saturday
That will be all for today, good luck with any bets,