K Lee Chasers (12/1<)
3.10- Bang- Desertmore Hill
Flat 2017: 60+ Day Trainers
4.40 Good- Eternally (any)
7.25 Galway – Lady Nathaniel (any)
Just the Guest race tips/preview today… (the members post has tired me out! A fair chunk of exciting horses in there today, Goodwood Day 4 Vid,Galway,plenty of interesting ES quals hoping to build on their +50 points profit so dar 🙂 …)
GUEST PREVIEW/TIPS: From Speculate To Accumulate
GMHopkins – 1 point each way @ 8/1
GK Chesterton – 1 point each way @ 9/1 (best 10/1 B365/BVic)
Withernsea – 1/2 point each way @ 16/1
Masham Star – 1/2 point each way @ 20/1 (best 25/1 Lads/Coral)
A nice winner for us yesterday with Good Omen, we could not follow it up in the second selected race but we crucially learned a lot about possible draw factors on the straight Course that may help us tomorrow, I always feel that in racing as in life, occasionally, you have to “lose a battle to win a war”, lets hope so.
The selected race today is over a mile and a Class 2 Handicap and we will all recognise some old horses here who have done magnificently for us over the past few years, GM Hopkins, Master Of The World; Withernsea; have all won for us at some point at decent odds, they are like old friends and that is what makes this race, in some ways so tough. We can’t forget Zhui Feng who won for us at Royal ascot, advised at 33, won at 25/1 but just not for me today!
Our approach has always been a shade “contrarian”; looking beyond the obvious, delving deep and way back, sometimes putting 2 and 2 together where the link is not immediately obvious. There are a few very good big race services who will regularly perm you 3-4 of the shortest 5-6 horses in the race and give little in the way of explanation and make nice profits; they are very good at it and fair play to them, but with respect to them, I don’t think that’s “tipping”; go buy a paper, better still cadge a look at WH Smiths; write down the top 6 in the betting and go and back 3-4 of them; you’ll make a nice profit, but we are looking for the kind of winners we found at Royal Ascot, at Aintree; at Cheltenham and many other times; something a bit juicier, and with enough regularity to be different and profitable, plus offer some learning and insight.
The race today could be very simple we’ll take GMHopkins; Master of The World; GKChesterton; Blair House and we know they can all run on soft, so there are the first four?. It may well turn out that way, logic, form and percentages say it possibly will, but lets delve in to those horses and a few more to see what lurks below the obvious.
Nobody would cheer GMHopkins and Master Of The World more than me if they win, I love both horses; they owe me nothing, but both in my humble opinion are slightly past their prime, both have won on soft but prefer better Going and drawn in 1 and 3, I do worry that neither usually runs particularly prominently and neither strikes me as a horse to “make all”. They may get the openings, but experience says it is a risky business. At 6/1 and 8/1 neither offers me great value, of the pair I think GMHopkins is better handicapped, this is John Gosden; so I won’t write him out of the equation just yet!; as this handicap mark does nag at me!
Blair House is no value at all at 11/2 as far as I can see, it has form at a furlong further, which may be an asset but the Going rings alarm bells, if it wins I’ll doff my cap, but as a placed horse no value. GKChesterton comes from a yard to fear, won on soft, won at further; just a nagging doubt about whether it has “the bottle” in a battle I’m looking for but at 9/1, he has plenty of value and we’ll come back to him.
Of the others in that price range the one I like most is Greenside, he could be progressive and on a nice mark and indications are that soft side of Good will help, I would rate him equal of GKC if a little less heralded. The other factor here is the Going “soft” that’s what it says it is and whilst that is obvious what does “soft mean”.
We know there was a deluge on Wednesday and that followed a week of heavy rain, but with basically dry weather yesterday and today, and with strong winds I think it will now be “less soft more pudding” that horrible dead ground, somewhere between soft and heavy and actually, probably better with a bit more rain than less.
I want to find something of real value, who has some form, not just in “soft” but in the pudding I refer to, of course that is not an official Going term, so you have to look deeply at race analysis, post race comments and without being elitist, some less well known tracks, where the hallowed turf may not be quite so hallowed but perfectly good for the basis of looking for something that has run and won “in pudding”.
Three horses passed this very close and deeper inspection, each have their positives but when you get in to the bigger price range, you have to expect some negatives and work through them, mud IS a great leveller as we have seen all week, so lets consider these 3 in more detail. MASHAM STAR bottom weight, as a 3 year old, you have to look at trends and 3 year old have done well enough in this race to be “Interesting”; we can certainly be very interest when we see the Trainer is one M Johnston and with form in mud, over a longer trip, bottom weight and the likelihood that it will up with the pace despite the high draw it is of major interest.
The other two with similar profiles are WITHERNSEA and BOOMSHACKERLACKER both I have always viewed though at better at 7 furlongs than a mile, but looking closely both have won at a mile in soft and have not according to the race reports been “hanging on”. WITHERNSEA probably has his optimum conditions for the first time in a while, has seen his mark drop to a nice level and at 16/1 drawn in stall 7 could get a nice tow in to the race and with a bit of luck make a kick at the furlong pole and be bang in contention. BOOMSHACKERLACKER has been around some of the less salubrious French and German tracks; and seems to thrive in this type of Going, he is another versed at 7 furlongs who has won over a mile, my main worry is not the horse , but a Trainer who is very much on the “cold list” and whose horses are not just not winning, but barely being competitive, but for that he would definitely be a tip, as opposed to “one to watch”.
So how am I punting today-:
GM Hopkins – 1 point each way @ 8/1
GK Chesterton – 1 point each way @ 9/1
Masham Star – 1/2 point each way @ 20/1
Withernsea – 1/2 point each way @ 16/1
(All Bookies odds to 4th, PP to 5th; Skybet to 6th despite 4 non runners)
I will also be watching Greenside and particularly Boomshackerlacker very closely for the “murphys law” syndrome.
That’s the lot for today.
Good luck with any bets.