Free Daily Post: 04/08/17 (complete)

complete.. micros + guest tips/preview (good read as always)

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

K Lee Chasers (12/1<)

3.10- Bang- Desertmore Hill

Flat 2017: 60+ Day Trainers

4.40 Good- Eternally (any)

7.25 Galway – Lady Nathaniel (any)

 

**

 

Just the Guest race tips/preview today… (the members post has tired me out! A fair chunk of exciting horses in there today, Goodwood Day 4 Vid,Galway,plenty of interesting ES quals hoping to build on their +50 points profit so dar 🙂 …) 

 

GUEST PREVIEW/TIPS: From Speculate To Accumulate 

Goodwood 3.00

GMHopkins – 1 point each way @ 8/1

GK Chesterton – 1 point each way @ 9/1 (best 10/1 B365/BVic)

Withernsea – 1/2 point each way @ 16/1

Masham Star – 1/2 point each way @ 20/1 (best 25/1 Lads/Coral)

A nice winner for us yesterday with Good Omen, we could not follow it up in the second selected race but we crucially learned a lot about possible draw factors on the straight Course that may help us tomorrow, I always feel that in racing as in life, occasionally, you have to “lose a battle to win a war”, lets hope so.

The selected race today is over a mile and a Class 2 Handicap and we will all recognise some old horses here who have  done magnificently for us over the past few years, GM Hopkins, Master Of The World; Withernsea; have all won for us at some point at decent odds, they are like old friends and that is what makes this race, in some ways so tough. We can’t forget Zhui Feng who won for us at Royal ascot, advised at 33, won at 25/1 but just not for me today!

Our approach has always been a shade “contrarian”; looking beyond the obvious, delving deep and way back, sometimes putting 2 and 2 together where the link is not immediately obvious. There are a few very good big race services who will regularly perm you 3-4 of the shortest 5-6 horses in the race and give little in the way of explanation and make nice profits; they are very good at it and fair play to them, but with respect to them, I don’t think that’s “tipping”; go buy a paper, better still cadge a look at WH Smiths; write down the top 6 in the betting and go and back 3-4 of them; you’ll make a nice profit, but we are looking for the kind of winners we found at Royal Ascot, at Aintree; at Cheltenham and many other times; something a bit juicier, and with enough regularity to be different and profitable, plus offer some learning and insight.

The race today could be very simple we’ll take GMHopkins; Master of The World; GKChesterton; Blair House and we know they can all run on soft, so there are the first four?. It may well turn out that way, logic, form and percentages say it possibly will, but lets delve in to those horses and a few more to see what lurks below the obvious.

Nobody would cheer GMHopkins and Master Of The World more than me if they win, I love both horses; they owe me nothing, but both in my humble opinion are slightly past their prime, both have won on soft but prefer better Going and drawn in 1 and 3, I do worry that neither usually runs particularly prominently and neither strikes me as a horse to “make all”. They may get the openings, but experience says it is a risky business. At 6/1 and 8/1 neither offers me great value, of the pair I think GMHopkins is better handicapped, this is John Gosden; so I won’t write him out of the equation just yet!; as this handicap mark does nag at me!

Blair House is no value at all at 11/2 as far as I can see, it has form at a furlong further, which may be an asset but the Going rings alarm bells, if it wins I’ll doff my cap, but as a placed horse no value. GKChesterton comes from a yard to fear, won on soft, won at further; just a nagging doubt about whether it has “the bottle” in a battle I’m looking for but at 9/1, he has plenty of value and we’ll come back to him.

Of the others in that price range the one I like most is Greenside, he could be progressive and on a nice mark and indications are that soft side of Good will help, I would rate him equal of GKC if a little less heralded. The other factor here is the Going “soft” that’s what it says it is and whilst that is obvious what does “soft mean”.

We know there was a deluge on Wednesday and that followed a week of heavy rain, but with basically dry weather yesterday and today, and with strong winds I think it will now be “less soft more pudding” that horrible dead ground, somewhere between soft and heavy and actually, probably better with a bit more rain than less.

I want to find something of real value, who has some form, not just in “soft” but in the pudding I refer to, of course that is not an official Going term, so you have to look deeply at race analysis, post race comments and without being elitist, some less well known tracks, where the hallowed turf may not be quite so hallowed but perfectly good for the basis of looking for something that has run and won “in pudding”.

Three horses passed this very close and deeper inspection, each have their positives but when you get in to the bigger price range, you have to expect some negatives and work through them, mud IS a great leveller as we have seen all week, so lets consider these 3 in more detail. MASHAM STAR bottom weight, as a 3 year old, you have to look at trends and 3 year old have done well enough in this race to be “Interesting”; we can certainly be very interest when we see the Trainer is one M Johnston and with form in mud, over a longer trip, bottom weight and the likelihood that it will up with the pace despite the high draw it is of major interest.

The other two with similar profiles are WITHERNSEA and BOOMSHACKERLACKER both I have always viewed though at better at 7 furlongs than a mile, but looking closely both have won at a mile in soft and have not according to the race reports been “hanging on”. WITHERNSEA probably has his optimum conditions for the first time in a while, has seen his mark drop to a nice level and at 16/1 drawn in stall 7 could get a nice tow in to the race and with a bit of luck make a kick at the furlong pole and be bang in contention. BOOMSHACKERLACKER has been around some of the less salubrious French and German tracks; and seems to thrive in this type of Going, he is another versed at 7 furlongs who has won over a mile, my main worry is not the horse , but a Trainer who is very much on the “cold list” and whose horses are not just not winning, but barely being competitive, but for that he would definitely be a tip, as opposed to “one to watch”.

So how am I punting today-:

GM Hopkins – 1 point each way @ 8/1

GK Chesterton – 1 point each way @ 9/1

Masham Star – 1/2 point each way @ 20/1

Withernsea – 1/2 point each way @ 16/1

(All Bookies odds to 4th, PP to 5th; Skybet to 6th despite 4 non runners)

I will also be watching Greenside and particularly Boomshackerlacker very closely for the “murphys law” syndrome.

Back tomorrow

Regards

Ian

**

That’s the lot for today.

Good luck with any bets.

Josh

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

36 Responses

  1. I’m off to Musselburgh races tomorrow for a bit of fun. Any tips from more learned punters would be appreciated. Thanks Ken.

    1. I didn’t want to tip it unless they have Good ground since there was rain forecast but I thought Queen In Waiting was a decent e/w chance if the going remains at good or better. In general I thought it was interesting that Joe Fanning is going there and not Goodwood so it’s probably worth paying closer attention to his rides.

      1. Yep i had a look at her, interesting.. Rural Celebration but weak in the market- in theory they will both be up there and not sure if leaders will come back…
        Just noted Lathom runs also, who fell out the stalls the last day- he needs a pace collapse and plenty of luck but had no race the last day and is dangerously handicapped these days.

        From the members qualifiers…

        Musselbrugh

        5.40- Canny Style (all hncps + micro age) H1 11/4

        6.10 – Baileys Excelerate (2YO) 5/1

        6.45 – Curzon Line (all hncps+ micro TJC) ES H3 I3 G1 10/3

        7.20 – Rural Celebration (all hncps+ 3yo+) H3 I3 11/

        I wouldn’t say I am overly bullish about many of those, but them are the stats… with any luckl Curzon Line may make all, but he is on the drift, never a good thing with an easterby horse, in general. You never know.
        Rural C is ran poorly LTO, but visor returns and if breaking fast could back the rail, they should- if he is held up then today is not the day, of some EW interest, along with Johnstons as Nick pointed to.

        Bailey’s is a first time starter and could be anything – like Nick I did note how Fanning goes here and not goodwood- who knows for what horse but keep an eye on his. This one ‘could be anything’, market may guide. Use your ‘paddock eye’!

        Have fun.

        1. Thanks folks. Appreciate the tips. I’d like to say I’ll return the favour some day but my knowledge of horses is pretty sparse, so maybe not!. I do love the thrill of seeing my punt comes through to win. GL Ken

        2. Thanks all for your tips. I went with 3 of Josh’s and ended up with two winners. I bagged another place and the missus came away happy with a win in the last race. All in all a thoroughly enjoyable evening. I’ll put my winnings towards a membership when the jumps start again. Cheers (hic) Ken

      2. I think the same re Queen in Waiting re Joe Fanning riding. Worth a bet if you can get a sensible price.

  2. Two for me tomorrow away from Goodwood. Firstly I want a bet on Simply Blessed in the 16:50 at Bangor. He wasn’t disgraced on handicap debut 2 starts ago in a race which was a decent standard for a class 5 (winner went on to win two more). Next time either the visor or the heavy ground didn’t suit. Between the two runs he has been dropped 9 lbs and James Bowen takes off a further 8lbs (I know it’s criminal that he gets 8lbs in a conditional jockeys race considering Gordon Elliott rates him highly enough to give him rides at Galway today). The cheek pieces also return which will help as does the return to better ground given his bumper form. His dad is 3/6, 4p at the track over handicap hurdles in the past 2 years as well as 2/4, 4p with horses returning after a 60+ break. The horse seems to have ran his best races following a break. He is owned by Mrs Bowen which I think is another bonus.

    Secondly I want an e/w bet on Tyrell in the 19:40 at Bath. Has been ultra consistent and hasn’t been out of the first 4 in his last ten races. Is 1/1 at the track and more importantly appears to be the only front runner tomorrow. The form of his last race has work out well and King has a solid record here which improves to 2/6, 4p with Sweeney on board in the past 5 years.

    1. Forgot to mention that the blinkers which have been absent this year (3/6, 5p) go back on as another key reason to expect a good performance.

    2. Nick best of luck with Simply Blessed I have had a small ew simply because of the Bowen factor.but this is a terrible race and the horse was sold for £1500 since its last run,you do not get much for that price.BoB

  3. plagiarism is alive and well (sporting life) but as i agreed with some of the right up’s i just pinched them. 🙂
    Goodwood day 4.
    1-50.Frontiersman and Poet’s Word lead the way on official ratings but both have question marks against them on ground this soft, so confirmed mud-lovers Scarlet Dragon 13-2 and Lord Yeats 5-1 may throw up some value. if all 8 stay in Snoano 16-1 may be worth a little ew.
    2-25.Make Time 3-1 has won on soft and won his handicap debut in fetching fashion at Sandown lto.Zainhom 5-1 is also worth a look.
    3-00.Master Of The World 6-1 with Ryan Moore a significant booking. David Elsworth’s charge advertised his present well-being by finishing second of 13 on soft ground at Newmarket last month and should relish the conditions more than most from a potentially favourable draw. Each-way value seekers could do worse than side with the mud-loving Withernsea 14-1 following an excellent third at Ascot six days ago.
    3-35.Profitable 5-2 looks the one to beat and Take Cover 11-1 might be the ew value in this.
    good luck if your having a punt.

    1. Just wondering Martin, is Ryan Moore a significant booking for Master of the world? He’s ridden 3 times without winning on him, so was just wondering what the significance is?

        1. I would fall down on it being significant.. any booking of Moore is for me, when he is free to ride with no AOB or Stoute (non hamdan) horse in race. He hasn’t been on this horse for his last 13 runs, and the last time he was he came a close enough 3rd in the Balmoral handicap, 156k. It certainly isn’t a bad sign anyway, and suggests the trainer has been keen to get him- albeit I am not sure he could have ridden too many others in the race- so not like Moore had lots of choices- albeit he rode greenside to win 2 starts ago, so could have had choice there, and his dad has one in here. I wouldn’t put you off anyway!

          1. Just interested in guys who follow trainers and Jockeys
            The top guys on the flat and over jumps at best average 25% winners
            so that means they must have 75% losers and because the public follow them
            they go offer on average shorter prices than they should.

            The write up on this site about Olly Murphy took my interest
            and I think when head lads from big yards set up on their own
            their horses start at bigger prices than they should before the price adjust.

            I think(Martin our stats man may prove me wrong)
            but if you followed this type of new trainer setting up first 100 runners at level stakes
            you would be in decent profit

            a few names that spring to mind are Hugo Palmer, Dan Skelton, Charlie Longsdon, Simon Crisford
            William Haggas Archie Watson.
            And I am sure their are plenty more that I haven’t named.
            if anyone can tell me their p/l from their first 100runners it would be useful imfomation
            because as soon as another ex head lad starts having runners a few good bets could be landed before the bookies cottoned on

            because surely a new trainer needs to have plenty of early winners
            to kick start their career

          2. Cheers for reply Martin and Josh, good to know, makes a lot mo(o)re sense when you you break it down like that, may have a few quid on it. Good luck

  4. 3.00 Goodwood
    389 runners – 20 years

    Aged older than 5: 1/101,15p
    Last three runs, NO top 3: 0/100,17p
    Last win, NOT class 2 or 3: 1/86
    Wins over further than 1m, >1: 1/60,7p
    Max. win, 10: 1/115,18p
    Places at 1m, 0 : 1/52

    186 – 10 (1m runs)
    Past year runs, NOT 5-10: 0/73, 13p
    Career runs, NOT 6-25: 0/65, 12p
    Last win, NOT class 2:1/79
    Career wins, NOT 3-5: 1/87
    Handicap places, >5: 1/85

    Looks very busy but even applying just the main stats the output is same. Thought I’d post them all for interest.

    GK Chesterton (9/1) I think is the only one who ticks all the boxes. Zhui Feng (14/1) only fails on past year runs being 11 so close enough and big enough to play.
    Looking at 10-years-only stats a few miss out by one – preference for First Selection (33/1).

    🙂

    1. Great stuff as usual Chris… hope you’re right about GK, hoping he runs a big race.. blinkers may help , should be up there hopefully and may bag favoured rail as they turn for home. Fingers crossed, albeit will cheer if Masham Star can somehow win also!

      1. Thanks, Josh. Blinkers certainly not a negative for Appleby are they? Does he hit your trends/form book/system?

        1. I haven’t looked at any trends today, he quals on a test Appleby C2 handicap angle I am looking at in Members area, along with his shorter priced one in this. Also just looked worth interest generally – likes the ground, poss excuses LTO, should race prominently etc- haven’t gone mad on him- tough race, but am hopeful! Seems to be liked in a few places, inc in guest tips above. Hopefully he settles in blinkers, did win in 1st time CP

    2. Good luck Chris. I try and target 7f and 8f races at Goodwood but I spent an eternity looking at the race last night but barring throwing some spare change on the machine on Zhui Feng (left it more due to the ground than his mark) and Birchwood (could see him hose up or be tailed off last) I ended up leaving the race alone. I firmly believe it’s a big plus to be drawn in the first 5 even more so on this ground.

    3. Well done Chris for taking on these tough handicaps. Blair House looks obvious based upon his last run. My Gary Moore contact tells me they are hopeful with Gossiping at a big price. The trainer has reasonable form at this course. I am unsure as to how the draw will pan out on the ground. They may split, ala Charge of the Light Brigade?

  5. 5.15 Goodwood
    12 years – 163 runners

    Last run, NO top 4: 1/48,4p
    Last run, NOT 16-90 days: 0/44

    Handicap wins,1 or 2: 1/62
    Handicap places, >1: 1/65
    Last win, handicap: 2/70

    I think Walton Street (9/2) and Tuff Rock (20/1) tick all the boxes.Of the others Cross Step (14/1) is close enough and big enough to play.
    Reshoun is a recent foreign purchase so very little to look at but a drifting 50s means he’s avoided.

  6. A couple more for the Gosden system today:

    3.35 Goodwood, Ardad,25/1.
    4.40 Goodwood, Eternally, 5/1.

  7. Not entirely sure how the trends will work on the Irish races as not all categories are available to dissect. Did manage to hit the winner at 13/2 from 3 picks at Galway hurdle race yesterday so had a look at another one there today.

    6.50 Galway

    244 – 20 years
    Max run, <1m5f: 1/69

    136 – 10
    Aged <5: 1/58
    Last run, <1m4f: 1/46
    10 or fewer career runs: 1/44
    5 or fewer runs in past year: 1/41
    Handicap wins, NOT 2-4: 2/76
    Career places, <5: 1/40

    I think Tara Dylan (12/1) is the only one who ticks all the boxes. Several miss out by just one (numbers 2-4-5-10-16 I think). Of those preference for La Vagabond (14/1) and Brokopondo (40/1).

    🙂

  8. Dams,

    Any breeding experts out there?
    When it comes to breeding it all seems about the sire
    but if 90|% of the field in a maiden are coming from a host of top sires
    how does it help.

    I like to look at the dam on pedigree .com
    and see how her previous foals have done

    if for example it is a mares 6th foal and the previous five have all been winners
    that suggests the family is pretty robust and the chances are foal 6 and 7+ will be
    future winners.

    if foal 6+ is with a non top 10 trainer you could have a winner a big price

    1. On the dam Idea Swing out Sister who runs at bath tonight.

      her dam is DANCE CLUB
      who has had 3 previous foals
      Online Alexander who won 2nd time out as a two year old
      Bnedel who won 2nd time out as a two year old
      and Kahrab who ran 4 races as a two year old last year for Mark Johnston
      finishing 4th or 5th each time.

      So on that angle Swing out Sister who has her 2nd run tonight should go well
      the form of Clive Cox’s Juveniles is a concern but the filly is by Kodiac who is a great sire
      of sprinters and there looks a race for her at some stage

  9. The 1.50 looks trappy today. I take the point about Lord Yeats liking the ground. In the 2.25 I like Beat the Bank as a horse going forward and so will stick with it today. In the 3.35 I will go with Profitable going on the ground but the race looks competitive and would not go big on it. In the 4.10 I like Rufus King although the Johnston horses are not doing great at Goodwood this week in my view. I take Josh’s point re Holy Tiber on the ground and receiving weight and so would not put you off that one. In the lucky last Londinium bids for a double this week but is short in the betting. For an each way tickle lets go with Bear Valley for Johnston.

    Good luck.

  10. We start back with proper football this evening. Early season games are about looking for value as always. I would look to lay Sunderland v Derby. Not just because of the slump the home team look to continue to be in but also Gary Rowett should be able to get a tune out of Derby this season. In the other game those consistent under achievers Forest are at home to my team Millwall. Forest will miss Assambalonga and Millwall have signed some steady players with Championship experience. So again lay the home team if you want to have a bet.

    Apologies for my confidence in Aberdenn last night in Cyprus. Poor stuff to be beaten 2-0 in Limassol.

  11. High draw looks a big advantage in the Stewards cup tomorrow
    in the group sprint Battash drawn 1 went right across to the far side

    I am looking at stalls 25 plus and the ones I like are Raucous drawn 26
    Polybius from 25.

    also putting stalls 24-25-26-27-28 in a combination tricast/forcast plays
    5x4x3 = 60 bets at 50p £30 for tricast
    5×4 = 20 bets at £1 £20 for forecasts

    1. Hi Pete.. I think you have the draw the wrong way round… you want to be focusing on low numbers… #1 is drawn against the far side rail, that being the inside rail of the course, which is right handed.
      1 will be far side, 28 etc will be on the stand side rail i believe, unless I have that completely wrong (i don’t think I do)

      far side, low, seems to be the better ground- BUT that can be deceptive. With no rain and all the racing that side, it may transpire that the high numbers don’t do badly… but the jockeys may try and take everything over. Nothing is every sure in this game, if you like the price of a high drawn horse I’d probably have a nibble… stand side may be the new golden highway (albeit I suspect it will be low)
      Josh

    2. Pete; with respect I think you have got that wrong way round. Since they changed stall numbering in 2011 (low is now inside of track on right handed Courses) the straight track at Goodwood high draw is Stands side. The far side , where they are all going is LOW numbers so in theory 1-9 should have advantage. However, big Sprint is maximum field, so harder for ALL to go that side. The middle is clearly like a “bog” but nothing yet has had the balls to hog the stands rail (usually the place to be) which is “virgin ground”. The middle looks like the Somme but it is a long way over to the inside rail so IF I had one drawn high, I might just say “gamble” stick to the stands rail – worth a shot as drawn 20+ you are just going to be running down the bog in the middle. I will definitely be exploring that option in 2 big Sprints tomorrow. Worked well for me at Royal Ascot where Zhui Feng was drawn very high and Out Do very low – sometimes you have to think outside the box and bookies will be all over low drawn horses!

      1. haha- that is spooky! Set fast ‘rules’ in this game can usually make you look foolish, higher may be over-priced generally, we shall see. About to fire up the trends!
        Josh

        1. Not even had a look yet but 2 on my tracker are GROWL and AL QAHWA so will have a good look at them and every other one before the morning – love these big field straight races…

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