Well I am in buoyant mood after yet another decent priced winner for my flat ‘elite squad’. Oh It’s Saucepot helped smash through the +50 point barrier in a little over a month. The losers will come at some point but for now we’ll enjoy the ride. I hope you had a nibble
Don’t forget you can take a 21 day Free Trail of the Members Club HERE>>> .. if you take the ClickBank option you are effectively getting 81 days free access. What’s not to like? 🙂
Moving onto today and I have got stats, trends and shortlists for the two big handicaps of the day. I have not ‘tipped’ in them as such but you can use the info in any way you please. With any luck the winners are on the stats shortlists. This same approach has worked for the Bunbury Cup and The Scottish Stewards Cup in the last couple of weeks.
I am off to York races today. If you’re there do say hello if you see me. I have recorded a couple of videos below which in truth are probably too long- I will try my best to speed things up next time but you know what i’m like. I was attacking the card cold and you may find the odd interesting snippet in there.
Our friends from Speculate 2 Accumulate have also previewed the International Stakes and let me share their thoughts for free. Generous bunch.
No doubt there will be the odd winner in the comments also,
Enjoy, have a great day, and remember… there’s always tomorrow 🙂
York: SkyBet Dash
(13 renewals, 223 runners, 47 placed horses)
13/13, 12/1 or shorter SP
- 11/13, 8/1 or shorter
- 14/1+ : 0/133,19p
13/13 Top 5 in market (10/13 Top 2)
13/13, top 2 at least once last three starts (0/90,11p were not)
13/13 running at same distance,or down in trip, from last run (0/56,7p up 1f or more)
13/13 were no more than 1lb lower than last race (0/47,6, 2lb+)
13/13 aged 3-7
- 10/13 aged 3-5
12/13 drawn 12 or lower (1/74,15p, 13+)
12/13, 0-3 distance wins (4+ : 1/66,12p)
12/13 had last win over 6f or further (last win 5f, 1/57,6p)
11/13 ran 8-30 days ago
11/13 Top 8 in weights (exc claims) (9th or lower, 2/110,21p)
13/13 ran either 6-15 days ago, or 26-45
- 1-5: 0/9,2p, 16-25: 0/21,3p, 46+, 0/18,1p
Trainers: Fahey (2/23,6p), T Easterby (0/17,0p) , K Ryan (0/13,3p)
13/13 stats (exc days since run)…. Snap Shots / Normandy Barriere / Al Qahwa / Jay Walker / Flying Pursuit
Jaywalker falls on the days run as above and also draw, in sense 12< best.
The distance win stat 11/13, is a positive for Snapshots / Al Qawa / Jay Walker
Top 8 in the weights – a positive for Al Qawa and Normandy Barrier…
My pin, stats wise…is homing in on Snap Shots/ Normandy B/ Al Qahwa... prob with savers on the other two in case!
On liking for soft going I think Al Qahwa looks my main EW bet, hoping he goes off 12/1< !, and Snap Shots. Flying Pursuit with form in soft but poor LTO. Normandy B looks a good ground hore but who knows.
Do with that as you please!
Ascot: The International Stakes (Handicap)
19/19, 2+ runs this season
19/19 had run over 7.5 furlongs or further in career (0/90,16 p had not)
18/18 (with prev win) had all won over 7f+ (0/62,11p had not)
19/19 ran 1-60 days ago
17/19 aged 4 or 5 (3: 1/62,10p. 6: 1/73, 10p. 7+ 0/61,4p)
10/10 aged 4 or 5
10/10, OR not lower than last run (0/36,0p lower) (10/10 same or 3lb higher max)
10/10, had 1+ run at Ascot before (0/45,4p had not run here before)
NOT 2 runs only in last 90 days: such types 0/57,4p
10/10 had won over 7f or further
10/10 ran in a 3yo+ race LTO (0/46,4p had not.. ran in 3yo only, or 4yo+)
9/10 had 4-14 runs over the distance
Ran on All-Weather Last Time Out: 0/9,0p
NOT Class 1 LTO: C1 LTO 0/20,3p (small enough numbers though)
Trainers: Johnston (3/19,3p) , Fahey (2/17,3p)
The 19/19,18/18 and 10/10 stats, + not 2 runs only last 90 days, leaves…
Fastnet Tempest / Remarkable / Fawaareq / Sir Roderic / Stamp Hill.
Fastnet Tempest looks interesting enough here for the in form Haggas Yard. 7s may be short enough but he is on the side of what little pace there appears to be in this. Fawaarq looks worth each way support also given his unexposed profile. He has run some decent races and may come on from that last run. He could be on the wrong side here but i’m guessing a bit and at 14s I’ve had a go. A chance of sorts can be given to Remarkable but he is a bit of a monkey I think,always flattering to deceive. The other two look up against it, but we’ve all been here before! 🙂
GL with whatever you may go with from those two races.
Trip To York: VIDEOS
I’ve upgraded some technology recently which means that it is easier/quicker for me to record/produce videos now… I can hear the cheers 🙂 So, I will try and start doing a few more of those in the coming weeks and months.
As I am off to York tomorrow I thought i’d have a flick through the card. Video one includes an intro and an in-depth look at race 1.
Video two looks at all the other races. In truth not too much jumped out at me but with any luck some of you find it useful. And if you don’t know what I look or sound like these may bring me to life!
GUST TIPS… From Speculate 2 Accumulate…
They’ve covered the International Stakes below. News on a special offer for RTP readers will be forthcoming next week and they are also letting me share plenty of their Goodwood coverage for free, which is great news for us all. For now, the 3pm at Ascot… as taken from their email to members…
20 Makzeem – 1 point each way @ 8/1
4 Remarkable – 1 point each way @ 11/1
1 Firmament – 1 point each way @ 33/1
6 Squats – 1 point each way @ 25/1
We had great success in the big field Straight Handicaps at Royal Ascot finding the winner of the 30+ runner Hunt Cup and Wokingham races with Zhui Feng and Out Do, and we attempt the nigh on impossible treble here.
What did we learn at Royal Ascot, and can that help us today?
These are very competitive races and you need luck in running. The draw is a huge dilemma, as we saw a few weeks ago with Zhui Feng drawn very high against the stands rail and Out Do draw in stall 1 against the far side rail. The issue at Royal Ascot was that due to artificial watering, the bias changed slightly and the difference today is that we are not talking hosepipes but proper rain, which is fairer and less discriminatory. The fact is that racing yesterday indicated very little difference it seems across the track, but pace, and being behind something that goes off quick is vital, Zhui Feng led most of the way, Out Do tucked in close to the pace and came in the final 300 yards.
The Clerk of the Course indicated yesterday that it was Good to Soft, would not need much to change it to soft, there was a bit of rain last night and more is due from around 2pm, one thing I am pretty sure of is that it is not going to get appreciably better, if anything it will verge on soft. The 7 furlong trip is a specialist one , but they finish up a deceptive incline and on this going I want something that is proven on Good to Soft and which has form at a mile or an easy mile if possible, I don’t see this being won by a horse stepping up in trip, maybe down is better.
There are 27 runners, Jack Dexter ran yesterday so may well come out and Family Fortunes wont be going for the big jackpot prize on this occasion either. As usual I started with a list of every runner; looked at the trends and Course form, then considered the Going and Stamina, finally draw and Trainer form. It is a “trends race” and that throws up 4-5 likely horses, I will look at trends but think it is dangerous to be totally blinded by them.
Lets weed them out and first to go, simply on grounds of with not being good enough or out of form are the following-: Buckstay; Top Score; Big Time; Heavens Guest; Mount Tahan; Swift Approval; Havre De Paix; Stamp Hill; Nicholas T; Jack Dexter; Shady McCoy; Burnt Sugar; Mijjack – if any of those win I will doff my cap and say I got it hopelessly wrong this time, of them only Harve De Paix (total dark horse) and Heavens Guest really give me any grounds for optimism in a race of this calibre.
That reduced the field significantly and my next cull involved -: Above The Rest (not sure Course suits); Flaming Spear (better on AW and too short I think); Johnny Barnes (not quite good enough and only saving grace and concern is John Gosden!); Withernsea (gets ground but just not quite making the final cut); Viscount Barfield (in form but not sure Ascot suits it); Gossiping (better on AW I think);Sir Roderic (could be a dark horse on this ground but yet to show form in 2017); of those I would think SIR RODERIC is the one most feared but I have a “sleeper” (a horse yet to show hand in 2017) who I think is better qualified.
So that left me with a final list of the following-;
Firmament; Yuften; Remarkable; Squats; Fastnet Tempest; Fawaareq; Makzeem.
If I had sent this mail out late yesterday, I would have had YUFTEN in the final 4 but I just think the ground has gone against him. He is very close on collateral form with REMARKABLE and I think the Going and the emphasis on a bit more stamina suits the Gosden horse. I also think that as a 4 year old, Remarkable has more scope to improve from the 2016 formline between them than YUFTEN so Remarkable makes the final 4.
I then considered a “match” between MAKZEEM and FAWAAREQ similarly and have concluded that with his Yard in such good form that if I am going to take one of these to war with me today it is MAKZEEM that just gets the nod; he is progressive and his Course form stands out, something Faraweeq does not yet have in its locker.
That left me with Firmament; Squats and Fastnet Tempest and that’s a tough call, I don’t like picking favourites; and I don’t think Fastnet Tempest is great value at the price, it ticks every box but I am a “contrarian” looking for different angles and value and more “hidden form” so if you want a few bob win bet as a saver feel free and I’m sure Fastnet Tempest will give you a bold run.
So what of SQUATS and FIRMAMENT at 25/1 and 33/1 and less obvious. SQUATS has form figures of 000; but a very good Course record, likes to get its toe in, Trainer in form; very nice handicap mark and if you look at those 3 races in 2017 with 000; first run always needed, second one too short a trip and last one Good to Firm, I think win or not today the horse will finish in the top 10 and one to track. FIRMAMENT is top weigh; but that is because it usually runs in better races than this. It has good Course form, is actually well handicapped; the softer the better and the more onus on stamina the better, and very solid each way chances.
So my final 4 are (in order of preference)-:
I have not mentioned the draw, frankly, I don’t have a clue how it will pan out and with respect; I doubt anyone who says they know; but my logic is simple, I marginally favour low and have horses drawn 1; 9; 25 and 4 respectively, and part of my logic is I have picked what I think are the best drawn low and the most likely drawn high and in stall 9 Remarkable will have options to go dead down the middle if that’s the place!
That’s all for today, I hope we can find some placed horses at least, a win would be frankly remarkable (no pun intended); but we seem to have a knack in these big field races and no lack of effort goes in to the analysis.
We will be covering one race each day at Glorious Goodwood where we had 5 winners from 5 races last year; no pressure there then!!! – tips will most likely be sent by 8.30am on the morning of the race although we may send late the night before IF we think there is a specific market advantage in doing so…
Have a great weekend and we’ll be back on Tuesday.
Right, that is everything from me today. Good luck with any bets and there is sure to be a winner or ten mentioned below 🙂