Members Daily Post: 14/07/17 (complete)

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 5/43,18p, -4.9) (Jumps: 9/61, +26.5) (total: 14/104, +21.6)

3.45 York- Novoman – 1 point win 9/1 (PP/BV//Betfs) 8/1 (gen) WON 9/1>9/2 

There seems to be some money for this one and his price has been nibbled at while I have been pondering. He fits the type of profile that I am convinced will see me do ok over time with these flat picks. Of those in the 6/1+ range on morning prices he looks most interesting, albeit I will mention a couple below in a moment. He is lightly raced on the flat and there should be more to come as he develops further. Haggas is in decent form at the moment and is one of the few ‘in form’ (geegeez indicators as per Key) in this race. He is 12/39,18p in the last 14 days. So, why should he improve on recent runs, what is he doing differently? It looks to be about the move up in trip by 2f. He is running as if he no longer has the toe for shorter and wants more of a test. Haggas is 4/16,9 places with horses he moves in distance by 20% or more from last run in the previous 2 years (up or down) so can clearly judge when to do it. He also goes from 3yo only handicaps to 3yo+ which means he gets an allowance, which plus the 5lb claim could be very helpful. And he drops in class here, from 2 to 4. That should help also. The final piece is the jockey- more to make sure she can ride, and rides winners for Haggas (who may well be her boss, i’m not sure). They are 8/41,14p in flat handicaps, 2/9,4p at the track. No problems there at all. The horse is a concern in that is can be very free- I am not convinced there is enough pace on here/it will be run at a strong enough gallop. But, all those positives, and his price, have tipped the balance really. Maybe they will try a change of tactics and run him from the front. But, he is worth a go for me.

Of the rest…

There are some interesting cappers running at Musselburgh that are worth keeping an eye on, if not today, then for the future. Kibaar is becoming very well handicapped again and the cheekpieces return here. He was drawn wide at Chester and was given a ‘get your mark down,we are never winning from the car park, kind of ride’. He has made all over CD before but there is some other pace here and he is drawn a bit away from the desired rail. But I suspect they may change tactics. I would want to see a bit more before wading in but i suspect he will make all in one of these northern handicaps in the coming weeks, maybe back here.

Canny Ruth Carr, with her unique training methods that help horses just bounce back to life (lunging- don’t know what that looks like in practice-,lots of turning out in paddocks etc) has a couple here. Slemy is interesting… I don’t like to think they have ‘done a job’ on this one but my word he is very very well handicapped now. The only ‘way in’ is that he is returning to the CD of his last win. Interesting. But that is it and he has shown nothing at all on recent starts, inc at Wetherby where he has won. He doesn’t even move in class here. It has left me scratching my head. Maybe they are running him here to see if it sparks him up.  But one to track, as he will strike again at some point either here or Wetherby I suspect.

Tropical Bachelor caught my eye at a price also- but he is 11 and had 33 odd turf starts- but he hasn’t run a bad race for Ruth and returned after 690 off days off LTO. He could bounce here but he may have been fit enough the last day. He drops into C6 which caught the eye and he did run well on his return LTO. His mark looks very interesting also if he retains any ability. This looks a weak enough race and I may throw some shrapnel at him. And knowing me probably Slemy- something doesn’t seem right there- maybe he is just out of form, or he hacks up. Conundrum.

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There are a handful of ‘ES’ qualifiers and with any luck they keep up their consistent start. Some nice prices there. Swendab quals on strategy 2 (as per link in Key) and Parfait on #1, albeit 5/2 is too short for me personally and certainly in a race like that- but he may make that look a decent price.

3.Micro System Test Zone

July Trainer (any odds)

6.05 Carl- Ravenhoe 3rd 8/1

4.Any general messages/updates etc

JULY MEETING: NOTES HERE>>>

The less said about day 1 the better. My attempt to rattle through the card didn’t go as well as Pontefract. Sadly none of the stats really fired and that was me done for. My parents and some of their friends went to the racing today. Being the resident ‘expert’ they obviously wanted ‘tips’. Gulp. I owe them dinner. One of their group played cards so they had the Johnston winner and come the final race they ditched my advice and found the winner themselves. Hurt pride there, but that often happens. And they never go jumps racing! The big meeting notes are due a blip but with any luck the next two days will be better, but we shall see. Hopefully the micros can find a nice priced winner or two. 

None of Gosden’s went that well from memory and that may be something to keep an eye on. Appleby’s yard is flying and Varian’s continues to tick along. Following trainers in form at meetings can work so it will be interesting if they bag any more winners. I’ll see who else is ‘in form’ before tomorrow.

Newmarket Day 2

Micro Systems

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That’s lot for today. GL with any bets.