MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES
Flat 2017: 60+ days
6.00 Navan – Vastonea
Nursery Handicap (test)
7.35 Carl – Shazzab
**
The less said about day 1 at Newmarket the better. My attempt to rattle through the card didn’t go as well as Pontefract. Sadly none of the stats really fired and that was me done for. My parents and some of their friends went to the racing today, being locals. As the resident ‘expert’ they obviously wanted ‘tips’. Gulp. I owe them dinner. One of their group played cards so they had the Johnston winner and come the final race they ditched my advice and found the winner themselves. Hurt pride there, but that often happens. And they never go jumps racing! The big meeting notes are due a blip but with any luck the next two days will be better, but we shall see. Hopefully the micros can find a nice priced winner or two.
None of Gosden’s went that well from memory and that may be something to keep an eye on. Appleby’s yard is flying and Varian’s continues to tick along. Following trainers in form at meetings can work so it will be interesting if they bag any more winners.
Chris continued his fine trends streak with another decent winner, 8/1. Why didn’t I take note! Well done.
**
July Meeting: Day 2
Yesterday was a bit rubbish. Below I have simply repeated the qualifiers/notes from my July Meeting members’ report. I went through previous big meeting notes from Chester/York/Royal A/The Curragh and think there was around +110 points worth of profit to BFSP hidden within the micros/notes from those meetings. This approach has found plenty of 8/1+ winners, and a few 16/1+, 20/1+ and with any luck the July notes may snap into gear over the next two days. Anyway, today’s ‘qualifiers’, to use/ignore how you please…
Micro Systems
1.50 – Parfait (m3) / Stamp Hill (m1) (20/1< guide)
2.25 – Darkanna (m1) (20/1< guide)
3.00- Monticello / Titi Makfi (m2)
4.10 – Guzman (m1) (20/1< guide)
4.45 – Doswell (m3)
Notes
2.25 – Clemmie
3.35 – Greta G / Roly Poly
**
GL with any bets.
8 Responses
One of my to follow horse goes in the Gp2 Duchess Of Cambridge. I take comfort from the fact that Mr Elsworth is aiming her this high but have always thought she looked a 7f horse. Maybe the July course stiff finish will see her at her best. She is currently 60’s on BF which seems fair given her RPR is 30 less than Out Of the Flames.
14th July Newmarket 6f Duchess Of Cambridge
4.25 Clemmie, Out Of The Flames, So Hi Society
3.75 Cosmopolitan Queen, Darkanna, Nyaleti
3.5
3.25 Chica La Habana, Mistress Of Venice
2.25 Mamba Noire
Preview – Despite my comments about Out Of The Flames perhaps being listed at best, I cannot see anything other than Clemmie likely to beat her. Cosmopolitan queen is one of my horses to follow but I have the impression she will need 7f to show her best. It will be interesting to see how she looks next to some of these. It is also interesting to see that her trainer clearly thinks she is worth a go at this level.
Prior race notes
Out Of The flames – Oh those Hannons, they knew this was a good one but it was hard to see that, she did not look quite fit enough to do herself justice today. Medium sized and deep girthed, holds herself well. Perhaps slightly less tall than Ertiyad and hard to know who might come out on top next time. Plenty left to work on and this may be the reason Ryan resorted to using the stick, I think they expected to win. 88
Out Of The Flames – Well she did this easily enough in the end but I would think it was soon enough after her Ascot run. It is instructive to look at her picture today and compare it with her after the Ascot run. She is certainly fitter but looks to be running up a bit light. Maybe I have marginally over-rated her at Ascot, the question is whether as this looked a bit soon it is an even better performance than it looks to go with an Evans speedster and then win comfortably. Not inclined to raise her mark despite the win. 88 but could be higher.
Out Of The Flames – Just lacks that extra touch of class to make it further than this, maybe listed at best. 87
Darkanna – Clearly better than my original rating but only ordinary. 76
Cosmopolitan Queen – Big, tall, strong filly. Coat not come through and daft as a brush throughout the prelims. Here for an educational but I suspect Mr Elsworth and Jeff Smith have something planned for this girl. Possibly a bit gawky at present but some frame to fill out and a cooks bum. Wasted lots of energy beforehand rearing and prancing in the pre parade and paddock as well as at the start. Still shaped well staying on at the death. 80 possibly more.
Cosmopolitan Queen – Medium, not looking as big as on debut and a bit dippy backed. Not fast enough for 6f. 76 over 7f+
Mamba Noire – Solidly made filly 75
Hugh
Little excitement in the way of trends today from what I could I see. Most of the races I’ve sifted through have thrown up nothing! The two below don’t seem overly exciting either. Roll on the John Smiths Cup on Saturday!
4.35 Ascot
133 runners – 10 years
Aged 5 or older: 1/63
Last run, NO top 3 : 1/83
Last run, NOT class 3-4: 0/42
Last run, NOT 4-8K prizemoney: 1/60
The stats look solid enough to me but unfortunately we’re left with looking at the head of the market.
Patchwork (5/1) is the only who ticks all the boxes with Atletico (4/1) the only one missing out by one.
5.50 Newmarket
307 runners – 20 years
Runs in past 365 days, >10: 1/85
Latest run, 26-365 days ago: 1/66
Wins at shorter distances, >2: 1/52
Leaves us with Finishing Touch (6/4 fav) which isn’t ideal.
All the others miss out by just one trend with a few of them by virtue of running a day or two over the 26 days last run cut off point. Not being overly harsh for that and combining with the fact 3-4 year olds have dominated this in the last 10 years especially (8 from 78 as opposed to 2/42 ,aged 5 or older) Dr Julius No stands out at 6/1.
Another little system I’d like to share is: Haggas runners this time of year (July-Sept) in Class 1-3 races having finished 2nd/3rd/4th on their latest run. Averages around 10-12 qualifiers a month.
2013: 23%, +22 BFSP
2014: 32%, +52 BFSP
2015: 30%, +4 BFSP
2016: 27%, +19 BFSP
2017: 75%, +5 BFSP
There are a few due to run today:
2.05 York, One Minute, (evens)
3.00 Newmarket, Daawy, (5/1)
3.15 York, Gheedaa (8/1) and Isabels On It (16/1)
4.00 Ascot, Dawn Horizons, (5/2)
🙂
D H drifted… i passed early thinking of 5/2….. ended 7/2…. should have kept my eye open…Well done though Chris…a winner is a winner.
Cheers
Tony Mc.
5.25 Navan a 1mile 2 furlong claimer
2 point win Discovery Lad 3/1 Ladbrokes
Discovery lad is clear top rated and the step up to 1mile 2 furlongs looks like the right move
as he should be suited by the trip.
The favourite Buffalo Blues was gelded which seems to have brought about very little improvement
Gelding horses is supposed to calm them down and often they can improve a lot but when they show nothing after the op it usually means they are not very good so 5/2 doesn’t really appeal
The Form of the others is very moderate to say the least and Discovery Lad looks good value at 3/1
Review
Placebo effect ran a decent race to finish third
but Devil or Angel faded very badly after leading up early
The Front runners may have gone a touch to fast as the placed horse were all off the pace
The Favourite went off far to short as he had a lot of negatives going into the race
Readers may be interested in news about SHABEEB in the 3.25 at Ascot trained by Roger Varian.
I currently use 3 paid tipsters and via a friend have access to a 4th. I have already posted my positive views on one of them SP2A and also have a very positive view of a second one Russell Blair (he is the one my friend passes on and I share one of mine with him). Last night I got a message about this horse from RB with just the tip (never an explanation). This morning at about 8am a tip from SP2A on this horse with their usual extensive form based explanation and I got on at 10/1. A few minutes ago I got a 5 star alert from a tipster I signed up to ages ago but discarded as his tips were not profitable. He does though have good contacts. His name is Paul Jacobs (Faringdon of the Morning Star 5 times RP Nap winner he says) whose contacts seem solid. He says this is a max bet based on brilliant gallop work.
The fact that 2 very good tipsters align was enough for me to have a nice little punt; when a third less good tipster but one with good contacts brings a different angle, I thought best to let you all know about it. I can see the form logic and the yard are in very good form too. May benefit from a step up in trip I’m told by the form analysis. 8/1 still available.
GL Colin
TWO DIVISIONS OF THE MAIDEN
Date & Title: 14th July Newmarket 7f Mdn D1
4.25 Being There, Doswell, Global Conqueror
3.75 Dukhan, Parisian
3.5
3.25 Chaparral Prince, Yaafour
3
2.75 Deja, Insurgence
2.5 Rastreli
1 Born To Sea
Preview – Not at all sure that this is a very good division. Being there looks the most likely but a pretty poor rating on debut. Wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him beaten.
Prior race notes
Being There – Lower medium, chunky, the fact he did not go off favourite suggests Godolphin new he was only ordinary. Still one of the best looking in the paddock. 75
14th July Newmarket 7f Mdn D2
4.25 Al Ozzdi, Falcon Eye,
3.75 Drill, Ibraz, Jetstream
3.5 Tribal Quest
3.25 Magnificent, Taurean Dancer
3
2.75
2.5 Bustam
Preview – Looks a wide open race. Give n Charlie Appleby’s form with debutants, Tribal quest looks a lower achiever on his first run so more inclined to go for Falcon Eye but any of the top 4 might overturn him.
Prior race notes
Magnificent – Tall colt, leggy and needs to grow into his frame, suggestion of gawkiness. Maybe 70.
3.05 York John Smiths Cup (Saturday)
376 – 20 years
Older than 5: 1/101
Last run at 1m3f or further: 0/82
Last win >1m2f: 1/86
Ran further than 1m4f: 1/88
178 – 10
Last run, NO top 7: 1/50
Season runs, NOT 2-4: 0/53
Last two runs, NO place: 1/54
Class 2 or higher wins, >1: 1/45
I think Ballet Concerto (9/1) is the only passing all the trends with UAE Prince (12/1) the only other one passing all the 10 year trends.
Few that missed out by just one trend include Snoano and Victory Bond for the 20 years and Central Square, Majeed, Sixties Groove in the 10 years.
🙂
: 14th July Newmarket 7f Nursery
4.25 Starlight Mystery, Red Roman
3.75 Gold Town, Elysium Dream, Guzman, Tangled, Weellan, Merchant Marine
3.5
3.25 Alifax
3
2.75 uther Pendragon
2.5
2.25
2 Arabian Jazz, Controversial Lady
Preview – The two best in on my ratings v OR are Merchant Marine and Tangled in that order.
Prior race notes
Gold Town – Another surprise from Charlie Appleby although they clearly knew what they had judging by the market support. To my eyes Gold Town looked a bit on the small side with a very timid demeanour as he wandered around the pre-parade. In fact he was one of the first that I put a line through. A suggestion that Buick cannily held him up behind three bigger ones sheltering him from the headwind. Whatever he won well. Top end of small, compact, looks a bit downhill. Without this win I would have been rating him around 75 but given the win I think I must go to a reluctant 85.
Red Roman – Looked out of place here, light behind tubular model. 74
Elysium Dream – Tallish light to medium build filly, ok proportions, nowhere near ready and presumably been silly at home so here to learn a bit. Ran all over the place early and then ran on, or appeared to as the ones who had tried to go with the winner fell back. Probably ok for a fillies maiden at a modest track. 71
Elysium Dream – A hint bigger than Angel of The South and just a bit more power behind. Great ride from Ryan Moore who probably made the difference. Improve again 77
Tangled – Ok type, lower medium, ran an efficient race with Pat Dobbs getting the most out of him. 77
Alifax – Strange looking grey, poor confirmation. 54