Members Daily Post: 13/07/17 (complete)

Quals + r ps + July Meeting Notes + Bet of Day
1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

**

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers
FLAT 

Carlisle

3.10 –

Fast Act (3yo+) 12/1 UP

El Hombre (micro class) ES H1 11/4  WON 2.4/1 (15p R4) > 6/4 

 

3.45 –

Hamidans Girl (micro class) ES 15/2 UP 

Honeysuckle Lil (micro age) H3 I3 11/2 UP

 

Doncaster 

3.20 –

Shenanigans (all hncps,+3yo) 14,30   ES G1  15/2 2nd (head) 7/2 

Hidden Charms (all hncps)  ES 14/1

 

Newmarket (july) 

4.35 –

Oh So Sassy (all hncps) ES 25/1 UP

Ice Age (3yo+) H1 I3 G3 8/1 UP

 

Newbury 

5.20 – Breakheart (3yo+) 20/1 UP

8.05 – Gambol (all hncps) 11/1

8.40 –

Gramercy (all hncps) 20/1

Diable D’Or (all hncps) 7/2

 

Epsom

8.20 – East India (all hncps) G3  9/2

*

JUMPS

Bonus 

5.40 DownP –

June Carter (hncp hurdle+age) 30 ES 16/1 UP 8/1

Miss Blanche (all hncps + age) 30 ES 7/2 UP 6/1

 

**

KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 20 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers from the report HERE

‘Advised Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>

Test Zone: July Trainer: Read HERE>>> | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>>

**

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 5/42,17p, -3.9) (Jumps: 9/61, +26.5) (total: 14/103, +22.6)

 

3.20 Donc – Shenanigans – 1 point win – 15/2 / 7/1 – 2nd, head, 7/2 – all looked great until the last stride. Albeit winner is clearly smart. 

Of those in the 6/1+ range and that are in the unexposed/more to come category, this one looks most interesting to my iffy ‘flat’ eyes. The first thing to note is the form of Roger Varian- he must bet the hottest trainer around at the moment and anything he runs should be noted. In the last 14 days he is 11/33 which is decent, but 25 have won or placed. Safe to say they are going well. The horse – well this one is having her third handicap start and her first run since Varian hit his hot streak. She is going to show more in handicaps at some point. She moves back up in trip here also- so ‘doing something different’ from her most recent runs- which is my new (old) catchphrase. This extra furlong or so could bring out more. She returns to turf which may be a positive or in any case has run well at Doncaster before. Varian has also booked the inform Tudhope- most of the ‘big boys’ will be at Newmarket and I suspect he is in the top 3/top jockey riding at the course this afternoon. The horse is an ES qual and some way clear of the rest on Geegeez Speed figures. The last day she was trapped wide for a way and will need to improve for that run. It could be that the Fanshawe horse is much the best and will beat her again- but she does have to go and prove it on turf, which she may do. But that makes Evens look short enough. Donny is no Kempton.

Of the rest…

Well Ice Age ‘qualifies’ on Flat strategy #2 (i have added a few more links in ‘The Key’ for ease of reference) and is interesting enough- top rated Geegeez – he drops down to the minimum trip, gets cheekpieces on, and J Gordon- some horses just run for her more so than with other jockeys it seems. I assume the tactics will be to blast out and try and make all. Whether he is quick enough remains to be seen but at least he is doing a few things different and is no forlorn hope at 8s. If he is leading come the bottom of the dip (around 1.5f out) you would think he will keep going to the line. It is a competitive race though and that man Varian has a few in here!

Over in Ireland – hopefully one of those two Irish Bonus picks (from the TTP Jumps guide) does the business… the market could be key for June Carter. She may just be useless but makes handicap debut, steps up in trip, and gets first time blinkers. These types can be hammered in for the yard. Any drift and I wouldn’t be confident but there are reasons why you wouldn’t fall of your chair if she ran a better race. There isn’t much pace in here either- given the first time headgear I wonder if they may change tactics and try and make all- well that’s what I would do. His shorter priced one should be going close also if transferring recent form to hurdles – she seems in much better form than when last racing in this discipline.

GL with any bets.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

July Trainer (any odds)

3.00 Newm – Love Dreams UP

CD Jockeys 

7.55 Leop – Ceol Na Nog  (any odds) 2nd 9/1>9/2

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

JULY MEETING: NOTES HERE>>>

Day 1

Micro Qualifiers

1.50 – Sofias Rock (m1)  3rd 20/1 / Face The Facts (m3) UP

2.25 – It Dont Come Easy (m1, 20/1< guide) UP

3.35 – Muntahaa (m3)

4.05 – Maybride (m1,20/1< guide)

5.05 – Tricorn (m3)

 

Notes

1.50 – Crowned Eagle UP / Fact the Facts UP / Wisconsin UP

2.25 – US Navy Flag 2nd 12/1

3.00- Love Dreams / Poet Society / Brian The Snail / Unabated (missed first time)  (all unplaced) 

3.35 – Western Hym / Wings of Desire

4.05 – Wild Impala

5.05 – Forest Ranger / Ronald R / Tricorn

 

My Newmarket Thoughts…

If I were going to the track today I think I would be spraying £5s around like confetti on the following, many of them an EW price…

1.50 –

Wisconsin (Sofia’s Rock and Face The Facts look to have questions also,but are micro quals and a big price..second guessing those has been dangerous this season)

2.25 – It Don’t Come Easy / US Navy Flag

3.00- Unabated / Love Dreams  (Poets Society and Brian The Snail hit a few stats also)

3.35 – Wings of Desire (Appleby is going to win 1 or more today no doubt and I’ve backed none, his looks strong in here but too short for me. And I had a nibble on this one LTO)

4.05 – Maybride (again on short side) / Wild Impala (Appleby and Palmer horses also interesting but can’t back them all…)

4.35 – Ice Age (EW)

5.05 – Tricorn

 

**

ELITE SQUAD UPDATE: These passed the 50 bets mark yesterday and for the FLAT are now: 52 bets / 13 wins / 23 places / 25% win SR / 43% w|place SR / +30.75 points  

Some big priced ones have gone close also and with any luck that is a sign of things to come. I think we would all be delighted if those stats were repeated every 50 bets, but time will tell. It has been a good start anyway.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

10 Responses

  1. Josh, the volume of quality analysis you supply daily is both mind boggling and mind bogglingly good. If a couple of the Elite Squad’s big priced near misses had gone the last yard the already hugely impressive Elite Squad results would have been truly awesome. And you call yourself a rookie?!!

    Last year’s jump results, if following your recommended strategies, were hugely successful and it now looks like ES flat is about to do the same. Wow. You’re emerging as the canniest professional of all. Well done and a BIG thanks.

    Patrick

    PS I hope you get a do stand alone, separate spread sheets for your various festival bets. Bet you these will add up to some pretty impressive figures!

    1. Hi Patrick, thanks for your kind words…

      As always it is a balance- I don’t want to put too much up there but at same time I like idea of Members’ having a choice as to what to engage in. The Elite Squad has helped a lot- so far- +31 points in 22 days I think. IF it keeps up those win/place % we will do just fine- some of those placed horses have gone very close, one at 22s, a few others 10/1+.

      Hopefully that will provide the foundation from which you wish to engage in everything else. Or indeed some of the other strategies look interesting.

      In theory ES should work the same for the Jumps. The confidence comes from a decent sizes stats pool, and high win/place %, and if enough repeat during said season, with no odds caps, we should do ok. Geegeez Speed 10/1+ was getting exciting on the jumps and it will be nice when that returns, +99 BFSP from inception in a 4 months or so.

      I am not a rookie when it comes to the research etc I don’t think! But there are better ‘tipsters’ than I out there and I/we can always improve on that front. But then again the ‘bet of the day’ was around 25% ROI after 100 bets and I would take that every time. I don’t like counting my chickens. Everything can always be better- I am restless on that front- and without that attitude I may not have had the ES idea. (which is simple enough but clearly hadn’t crossed my mind before that point)

      The Festival/Big Meeting Content…

      I am not keeping detailed results as yet- it is a struggle keeping on top of everything else but i probably should. It is all recorded within the posts. But again, that is about information and using it how you please. I have introduced the ‘micro systems’ so there is an element you could have more confidence in just ‘backing blind’ – but I like the idea of you picking out what angles look most interesting and dabbling in the odd horse.

      I don’t expect anyone to back all the ‘notes’ horses say but again that is up to you.

      Albeit the O’Meara Dante angle alone pulled in around +100 points BFSP by itself,Chester added a little, Curragh probably around +25 or so, Royal Ascot wiped it’s face if backing the lot. So, they have been finding decent winners and good profits.

      Being content when you miss winners is quite important. And as long as you are betting at a level you are comfortable with, backing some winners, having fun, and making steady profits over time hopefully members will be happy enough.

      I think we have the model now – just a case of making it the best it can be, and as simple as it can be for me and members. Recommendations on that front are always welcome.

      Sounds like you are enjoying yourself though which is the main thing!
      Josh

    2. I have to agree with every word Patrick. This is really becoming one of the if not the top service(s) out there, and only £2.50 cheaper then a curry for me and misses on a Friday night, bargain 😉

      1. ha cheers Gavin. When you put it like that it really is quite reasonably priced! We are doing ok, but I am conscious of the ‘overload’ point and always think I can be doing more to help members engage with the content etc. Always room for improvement.
        It is a unique service I know that, nothing quite like this out there. I think that is a good thing.
        Josh

  2. I’ve been with Josh since day 1….and although i may have been a nuisance from time to time…I have seen his formative beginnings swell into a top class [Very Honest] service.
    Top class and well done Josh.

    Tony Mc.

    1. Always a pleasure Tony.. day 1.. can you remember when that was.. first free post was December 2013 I think! You are a trooper.

  3. Back from hols and looking forward to getting stuck into the micros at Newmarket.

    Whilst away I wandered into Stanley Bet in Paphos and asked what the max bet was. I was told £2 win single on the Nicosia tote per race, all British racing included! I wonder how the shop stays open. I could not bet online as you need to have a full time Cyprus address. A break is as good as a rest they say.

    Good luck.

  4. Would like to thank Josh and all who contribute to make it a great service, not having a lot of time at the moment appreciate all the studying by Josh and other people on the site, thanks to you all.

  5. Thanks Josh. Having fun is an understatement! I haven’t been punting as I have to travel abroad quite frequently – work related – but certainly plan to do so throughout the next jumps season. I was quite successful punting a couple of decades back but gave it up due to working abroad. Now and again since then I have dabbled following ‘big name’ tipsters. Well the less said the better. No fool like an old fool as the saying goes. Lets just say Advertising Standards don’t do much policing of the racing press.

    I happened upon you by sheer chance in a comment made about you on Betting School and have been totally won over since the day I joined Racing To Profit. It just hits the right note and contributors of the calibre of Chris and the many others add spice to the mix. Personally, I couldn’t analyse a race if it was replayed fifty times over. And there is none of the point scoring and bickering which has put me off every other site. It’s horse racing after all.

    Patrick

  6. So sad to hear of the passing of Tommy Carberry in the Ould Country…I think from memory he rode L’Escago to beat Red Rum?….The his lad Paul done it with Bobby Jo ? prepped by Tommy. I met him in the pub next to Aintree and swapped a few jars…He knew my Great uncle Martyn who was a horse breeder. Some of the tales would have you on the floor laughing. I’ll be lifting a glass to him tonight.
    RIP Tommy Carberry….One of the best.

    Can you transfer this over to the other blog page Josh… I’m sure others would like to know who are not members.

    Tony Mc.

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