Free Daily Post: 10/07/17 (complete)

5 Responses

1. 10th July Windsor 6f Novice
   4.25
   3.75 Gossip Column, Well Suited
   3.5 Iconic Knight
   3.25 Mankind,
   3
   2.75 Bezos, White feather, Peggy’s Angel
   2.5 Catapult
   2.25 Yorbelucky
   2 Spot Lite 1.5 See The Tar, Following Breeze
   Preview – Of the top 4 on algo score only Iconic Knight has been seen and I have no notes, the others are unraced. Looks a fairly un-noteworthy character. Improved 2to in a bad race at Brighton so it will have to be a very poor race for him to win. The unraced Bezos, Mankind and Well Suited are all from ok stables.
   White Feather has had 3 races in France for Jo Hughes and may well be good enough unless there is a smart debutant.
   Peggy’s Angel was 3.5l fifth behind Ertiyad on soft at Haydock which in this context does not look too bad.
   Catapult showed promise on debut and all three in front of him have subsequently won or ran well. He was then only 5th behind Billy Dylan at Brighton with his jockey Sirigu looking poor. He has only ever ridden 2 2yo winners and must be regarded as a handicap.
   Yorbelucky ran respectably on debut here two weeks ago. See below.
   The others look of little account.
   Shortlist of the raced: Yorbelucky, White Feather, Catapult, Peggy’s Angel: the unraced look very difficult to separate.
   Impossible to make a selection without seeing them.
   Prior race notes
   Catapult – Just about the best type in the race. Not quite fit. Had he not been colty throughout the prelims and as can be seen even on the way to the start he might have gone very close here. Should win a low level race, maybe a nov auction 73
   Yorbelucky – Probably biggest in field top end of medium, lacks a bit of quality and fully tuned by Mr Evans. Went with the over fast early pace so did well to stay on to take 5th. A rare misjudgement by Adam Kirby. 74
   Spot Lite – Poorly made, ordinary. 56
   Following Breeze – Another puzzler as to why Boyle gave 38k for this at a breeze up. Bit more size than Straight Ash and I suppose might develop into a poor handicapper. 48
   Hugh

   Reply

2. Been messing around with a few systems and will try and put them on here as and when I can.

   One which has a few qualifiers tomorrow is:

   ALL Gosden runners in July/Aug/Sept having had their last run more than 45 days ago.

   2014: 36% strike rate / +45 points BFSP
   2015: 35% / +69
   2016: 31% / +33
   2017: 33% / +1. (2 from 6 so far this year)
   Around 45 qualifiers each year.

   Tomorrow’s qualifiers:
   8.45 Ripon: Mooltazem (8/13)
   9.05 Windsor:Wasatch Range (already been backed from 7/2 to 9/4) & Azam (11/1)

   🙂

   Reply

3. 7.05 Windsor 1Mile2Furlong 3 year old claimer

   2 point win Niseko 11/2 with at least 4 firms. Hills Bet365 Sky and Bet victor all go that price

   Tight little claimer with 7 of the 8 runners all possible winners but Niseko looks a decent bet at 11/2
   judged on his run at Brighton two runs ago and his run last time can be forgotten as he
   was trapped out wide which makes life very difficult at Beverley.
   Tregus finished in front of the selection there but Niseko should reverse that form on an less demanding track.

   All the runners are close on ratings and with three year olds improving so rapidly it not a race for lbs and ounces.
   The key I think is good recent form so Chunkyfunkymonkey who won last time must be respected
   but I have a gut feeling that Niseko is the better horse and will go very close.
   of the others LOG OFF off a low weight holds some appeal

   Review
   SEANIE ran a stinker and leaves the service 4 points down from the start

   Reply

4. 3.40 Pontefract (Tuesday)
   King Richard III Handicap,6f.

   Last 11 winners coming from 129 runners.

   Never run at Pontefract before: 1/52
   Latest two runs, NO place: 0/55
   Latest three runs, NO top 2: 1/60

   Latest run, NO top 8: 1/30
   Handicap wins, 0-1: 1/35
   Last win, NOT Class 3-4: 1/32
   Last win, NOT 6f: 1/39

   Leaves Avon Breeze (13/2) and Mishaal (16/1) as ticking every box.

   Looking at just the top 3 strongest looking stats then Tavener (6/1) and Cool Bahamian (10/1) pass those too.

   🙂

   Hannon seems to be doing well with runners in first time cheekpieces/blinkers.
   Since taking over from his father in 2014 he has 24% strike rate, +75 BFSP. This year it is 30% strike rate, +21 BFSP.
   He has one such runner in the 8.15 Brighton (Tuesday), Royal Peace, 11/2 available.

   Reply

   1. Good stuff Chris, I am off to Ponty on Tuesday and my eyes were drawn to both those two in that race for an interest, the latter a Members qual also. Interesting. Top work. GL

      Reply