Members Daily Post: 10/07/17 (complete)

quals + ratings pointers + x3 bet

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Ayr 

2.15 –

Hit The Lights (3yo+) 14/1 UP

Racquet (micro distance+ runs) ES I3  9/2 WON 9/2

2.45 – Merdon Castle (micro distance) G3  16/1 UP

4.25 – Foxtrot Knight (micro runs) ES 10/1 2nd 22/1 (ah,close)

 

Windsor

6.05 – Forever Yours (4yo+) 8/1 UP 5/1

7.35 –

Jumping Jack (all hncps) I3 G1 7/2

Fast Dancer (micro TJC) I1 G3  9/2

Gilded Reflection (micro age) 11/2

8.05 – Marie Josephe (all hncps) 11/4

 

Ripon

7.15 –

So It’s War (all hncps) H3 I1 G1  3/1

Clenymistra (micro age) ES 4/1

8.15 Sunglider (micro age) ES I3 4/1

 

SUMMER JUMPS

Worcester 

4.40 – Full (hncp hurdles) 14  8/1 UP 10/1 

5.40 –

Money For Nothing (hncp hurdle) I3  8/1 UP

Magical Thomas (hncp hurdle)  14 H3 I3 7/2 3rd 

State The Obvious (micro class) 11/2 2nd 4/1

 

**

KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 20 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers from the report HERE

**

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 5/41,17p, -2.9) (Jumps: 9/59, +28.5) (total: 14/100, +25.6)

 

Flat 

6.05 Windsor – Forever Yours – 1 point win – 7/1 (general) UP 5/1 (ran on ok but never quite getting there)

This one is 0/2,0p on the flat turf and fits that unexposed bracket. He ran well enough in a maiden on GF and this horse has been in form on the AW to my eye.  On two of those runs he had trouble at the start and not much luck in running. In between he ran a decent enough second having had to travel wide. I don’t know what they will do tactically with him- a chance they try and make all, albeit a few pace angles, and they may sit behind and try and pounce. Hopefully he has more luck in running and can find the gaps when needed here. He drops in trip from that last run also. With this profile and the price I really need to get in the habit of backing them. There should be more to come at some point, hopefully today. There is about +25 odd points in the last couple of weeks that ‘unexposed’ flat horses have won,that were doing a few things different,that I just seem to have left for one reason or another. Too much over-thinking which can be a common disease with me from time to time. The winners are there to be found, and that keeps us all going. This one also has a very good apprentice on board and the jockey can make a big difference in these races.

 

Jumps 

4.40 Worc – Full – 1 point win – 15/2 (gen) UP 10/1 the dreaded drift which I never really like with those who have been off the track a time, travelled well enough into,ran as if needed it. That was one of the risks. 

5.40 Worc – State The Obvious – 1 point win – 11/2 (gen) 2nd ran well, no real excuses, close enough but couldn’t quite get up. 

 

Full- well he was very well backed the last day on his first start for the yard where he bled- that is a worry but they have clearly taken their time with him. This lightly raced french recruit will do something over hurdles one day and if he has any ability he should be showing it over the summer at some point. This isn’t a great race and they clearly thought they had something to work with the last day. He just has an interesting profile and we can’t have seen the best of him on these shores in his two runs to date. He may appreciate the hurdles at this track and it is more galloping than Fontwell. It is also a bigger field and with luck a stronger pace. He runs as if he may want further but has a long straight in which to wind up here. 15/2 looked decent enough. Trainer is 3/12 with handicap hurdlers returning 60+ days off at the track. The trainer’s horses are running well also.

State The Obvious – This one his having his third handicap hurdle start, his second after a break, and steps up in distance. There was some promise LTO and he may well have needed it. And that’s it really. Breeding suggests he should appreciate further and if it unlocks more, and he is now spot on fitness wise, he should run a decent race. I’m in danger territory given their are two other qualifiers in the race but Money For Nothing has a few too many questions to my eyes at the moment and Magical Thomas was too short- especially given that he has had a few chances and still hasn’t learnt to settle- pulling like  a train on recent starts. IF he does that again I struggle to see him staying this trip. In any case I can leave him at that price.

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Of the rest… well Guilded Reflection is in the unexposed camp. There are a couple of other quals in that race who have a decent chance on paper and who hit one of the test strategies. (Top Rated+Top3) The 47 day break seemed odd- not sure if suggests a hold up. 1st time blinkers – so doing something different,and may eek out more. But they are rarely a positive step. The race looks competitive enough.

 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

July Trainer (any odds)

3.50 Ayr – Byres Road UP

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

I’ll be trying to find some July Meeting pointers before Thursday.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

6 Responses

  1. When Paddy got unseated from Owen Na View (2.30 Worc)at Perth he threw away his helmet in disgust,at first i thought he had a serious injury but perhaps the real reason is he thought ONV was in with a great chance,he was lobbing along and about to make a challenge and then probably caught out Paddy with an overly exuberent jump.Paddy is either on a break for a while,or had harsh words with Owen that evening.I woudn’t worry too much about the distance but 5/1 is a bit skinny and had Paddy been riding i would be more confident

    1. I thought Paddy had a bad leg injury too G….. ONV seemed to land on top of the fence a bit and Paddy departed…but he did look hurt.

  2. Maybe he is just fulfilling his booked rides and taking a break to give it a rest Tony.Its one jockey we want fit and healthy for coming jumps season proper

  3. Owen Na View has drifted to value territory at 10/1 with an ominous drift,he will pick up a win at some stage,might not be today,but at the same time FOB is fairly shrewd

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