No micros again.
Horses of Interest….
A couple that look worthy of closer inspection…
1.50 Sand – Shamshon – 7/1 – 3rd – late closer- may need bigger field/pace burn up – races to be won with him from this mark now…) an angle that has interested me within the geegeez racecards is ‘trainers in form’ with their in card indicators (very useful) and specifically when only one trainer appears to be ‘in form’. That doesn’t mean the others are out of form but that said trainer’s horses are going particularly well. I was playing around with this idea last night with some success and have probably used up all my luck for today. Anyway, S Williams is one such ‘in form’ trainer in here, his horses 4/18,6p in the last two weeks. This horse shows up well in instant expert, is 5lb below his last winning mark, and is a CD winner. He ran well enough at Epsom two starts ago and the trip/ground probably defeated him the last day. There is some pace on and he will need plenty of luck in running which isn’t a positive- but that’s how he runs. With any luck he is ready to go here. Oh and he is also top on geegeez speed ratings. They are running a test in the Forum over at geegeez towers, looking at top rated speed runners in 5f races. 20% sr, +97 points, 18% ROI at the moment. It’s looking promising. So, this one ticks that box also.
2.00 Donny – Dazzle Gold – 14/1– UP- weak in market, didn’t run that well)I would like to see some money for this one and as such may be one to watch. But Cowell is 5/14,4p in the last 14 days and is 10/55,10p with 1st time 2 year olds in the last 2 years, which is decent enough. Donny isn’t a track he tends to target in general and I think this may be his first unraced horse here. I also noted that trainer and jockey are 4/13,4p,+12 in 2 year old non handicaps. So, something else to go on. The front three in the market are being well supported and the money usually talks in such races. But, if you take nothing else from this one, do note the hot form of the Cowell yard in the coming days.
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Saturday… unless mistaken I don’t think there are any big sprint handicaps on, certainly not on ITV, but I could be wrong. So, there will be something up as usual, but not any ‘big race’ as such. I am sure Chris may have some stats/trends for the odd race! Also no nice 3m+ handicap chases to get stuck into. October is creeping closer…
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Good luck with any bets.
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17 Responses
7th July Sandown 5f Dragon
4.25 Havana Grey, Roussel, To Wafij, Formidable Kitt, Rebel Assault
3.75 Last Page
3.5
3.25
3 Connery
2 Ivy Leaguer
Preview – My view of the Windsor Castle in which Roussel finished 2nd is that it was a poor race so I see him as a false favourite particularly with his draw 9. Havana Grey and Formidable Kitt look the most likely winners and with Havana Grey top rated, drawn 2 and having a c&d win he is the selection. His chances at Ascot may have been compromised by the draw. Main dangers Formidable Kitt with the fillies allowance and Rebel Assault who has not been seen but has a poor draw. With Way of wisdom a non runner this moves Formidable Kitt into an effective stall 4. I would expect Havana Grey and Formidable Kitt to get the lead and duel for the win with Roussel making up ground late.
Prior race notes
Havana Grey – Efficiently made, compact, looking very fit. Bounced out on the rail and made all keeping on well. 84
Roussel – Small but strongly made, Improved from debut. 80
Last Page – Smuggler Evans somehow managed to get this one past me and into the paddock without a picture. He clearly has lots of ability in his narrow frame. But does his position here undermine the others? 75
To Wafij – Chunky little Kodiac. No better than this, size limited. 68
Formidable Kitt – another disadvantaged by racing far side. 80
Ivy Leaguer – Something I did get right as I had this one by far the lowest rated of those I had see. 65 given on debut a tad harsh and may be capable of picking up a nursery. 67
Connery – Plainer type than most. 76
Hugh
: 7th July Sandown 7f Novice
4.25 Petrus
3.75 Bathsheba Bay, Cuban Heel, Master Of Wine
3.5
3.25 Rivas Rob Roy, Trogon
3
2.75 Matewan
2.5
2.25 Amaretto, barford
1.5 Ahfad, Homerton
Preview – Falmouth Light who beat Master Of Wine on debut here in a Cl 5 was subsequently beaten in a Cl 4 at Leicester. Master Of Wine looks the most likely winner but it would only need something a bit different to down him.
I was concerned that I under-rated all the runners in Petrus’s debut won by expert Eye, particularly as Meehan tends to start his better ones at Newbury so he is clearly the main danger.
Bathsheba Bay is a Hannon debutant and consequently being supported but none of his 4 debut runners at Newbury last night whether supported or not looked ready to win.
Prior race notes
Master Of Wine – Lighter build than most but very fit. 78
Petrus – Lower slung lighter type, Lower medium, less scope than the first two. 68
Hugh
Cuban Heel – Close-coupled chunky fat boy, needed run. 66
Missed him off the 7f race prior notes.
I think trainer form is just so incredibly difficult to factor into the vast array of variables most of us use already. I end up pondering far too many factors when I look at trainer form so I tend to place my selections into 3 price categories, short ev-3/1 ish, long >10/1 ish and mid somewhere in between! I look at any shorties and if the trainer appears to be out of form then leave it, if it’s long and appears to be out of form 1/2 pt bet. The middle I leave in the lap of the gods as that’s where most of the winners come from anyway.
Fergal O’Brien looked like he was heading out of form the other day then goes and sticks a double in the next day! With Tangolan as well!!! Far too tricky…So I don’t feel aggrieved at missing a few shorties now and again as I know I’ll dodge enough to make it worth it.
I don’t want to stop betting the shorties because they often run up sequences and break up losing runs in other areas and shine a little light in the inevitable dark times we all have. So yeah that’s my approach, not very insightful or helpful but that’s me! I am a pretty much a systems man now with the occasional fun dabble, because otherwise I would spend far too much time analysing everything and getting emotionally attached to it all, been there done that, didn’t work for me.
Today is a bit weird because most of the races I have selections in have 2 or 3 running for me and for some reason the last few days have seen far more bets per day than usual, up to 15! usually 5 or 6.
So 2 that are single entries are 3:35 Donc Claim The Roses and 4:20 NA Best Boy Barney.
I prefer systems too Chris….but get distracted and bet to many….negating my profits sometimes..lol.
I sometimes don’t bet my system horse as it’s to short…
Bol ….Tony Mc.
Yep when i talk about ‘trainer form’ in that context above it is a rather simplistic approach using the geegeez indicators… 14,30 (green symbols in the racecard) = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 = 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 = 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr
I am not looking at trainer’s ‘out of form’ in terms of using ‘trainer form’ as a way in. But sometimes when there is only one trainer ‘in form’ with those pointers above, it can be interesting. Only one part of the analysis but having ‘ways in’, whether that or systems or whatever, is useful. Can then look at horse separately and make a judgement…
was playing around with it last night… Haggas was only ‘in form’ trainer in 8f handicap at Newbury…he had two, one of them ridden by TQ, lightly raced… was moving up in trip by 1f (first run 8f on good to firm) and has CP on first time. Stayed on steadily over 7f LTO. 16/1, threw 5 at him… won.
John Butler had winner Epsom..returning after a break, again only trainer ‘in form’ as above- horse had run well after a break before and the pace map intrigued me- thought a chance he could make all. Another 5, 14/1, won. Made all, just clung on. Now that is some spectacular after-timing but that was the way in and thought process pre race… just wish I had got round to that by 10am in the morning!
Am going to write a blog post/article on my ‘is the horse doing something different’ philosophy as there is is plenty of mileage in that approach, as a way of attacking/thinking about racing.
GL today
Saturday 3.15 Haydock – Old Newton Cup
20 years – 298 runners.
Last run, class 1: 0/34,5p
Last run, non-handicap: 1/46,7p
Max.run >2m : 0/60
Max. win 1m2f or less : 0/51
10 years – 149 runners.
Last run,not class 2-3: 0/29,5p
Last run, not 1m2f / 1m4f / 2m: 0/35,6p
Last run, group / listed race : 0/19,2p
Last run, >45 days ago: 0/27
Career runs, NOT 6-25: 1/34
Class 2 or higher wins,1: 0/54,9p
Handicap wins, 2: 0/40
Places at 1m4f,1: 0/32,4p
Don’t think any tick all the boxes but those that miss out by just 1 stat are: Soldier In Action (12/1) / Baydar (33/1) / Tawdeea (25/1) / Toulson (20/1) .
Looking at the 10 years only stats then Soldier In Action (12/1) / Baydar (33/1) / Toulson (20/1) fit everything whereas 5-6-12-17 miss out by one.
Might update overnight.
🙂
Great stuff again Chris…. Just curiosity, but do you take draw into consideration?
BOL Tony Mc.
Hardly ever factor in the draw when in comes to trends. Think it’s more important to know where the pace is etc and the draw bias can change throughout the day never mind meeting to meeting!
Little look at the small sampled 1.50 Sandown race
1.50 Sandown
112 runners – 10 years
Aged older than 7: 0/22
LR, NOT class 3-4: 0/39
5f places, 1-3: 0/37
Last win , not class 4: 1/68
Last win, prizemoney 8k+ : 1/36
Zac Brown 4/1 and Fethiye Boy 7/1 tick all the boxes.
Great shout Chris…what a battler….I owe you a large….Cheers lad.
Tony Mc.
Oh bugger, you’ve picked out another and I threw the grand total of £0 at him. Well done! He is a bloody quick horse, and tough. Won that in first 2f, nice drift, and he battled on. One to follow I suspect for wiley old Ron,could win some nice pots with him at speedier tracks also- Goodwood say. Or any track with a bend.
I thought from your philosophy of liking quick starters…you may have had a dabble Josh…
too much going on in my head I think! Looked at race in context of horse above- but also assumed may be pressure on pace – and hadn’t watched his recent runs- if I had, I would have realised just how quick he was I think. A saver would have been nice. Never mind.
Sorry…meant to say, you were right about the first 2 f….That won it and it’s courage to fight back.
Yep, he was lightening to the eye, that will win him plenty of sprints. Jockey filled him up- he thought he was never headed- camera angle deceptive. Showed some guts. i’d put a lot of money on him winning at Goodwood over 5f – imagine him drawn against the rail- won’t see which was he has gone down that hill, fill him up a tad, go again. Harris sent a few sprinters there from memory down the years.
7.20 Haydock 1m
13 years – 107 runners
Last run, >1m: 1/30
Days between LR and 2nd Lr, >30 days: 0/24
NO win last 5 runs, 2/50
Max. run, >1m2f: 1/49
Max. win, 1m1f or more: 1/25
Last win, NOT flat turf: 1/22
Last win, non-handicap: 1/30
Lincoln Rocks (7/2) and Alnashama (14/1) both fit all the above.
🙂