Members Daily Post: 07/07/17 (complete)

quals+ratings pointers+ test systems +2x bets of day

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Sandown

1.50 – Seeking Magic (micro class) H3 9/1 UP

2.50 – Bathsheba Bay (2YO) ES  9/2 UP

 

Doncaster

4.10 – Pleasant Surprise (3yo+) H1 I3 G3 9/4 WON 2/1

4.40 –

All You (micro class) I3 G3 5/1 UP 

Up Ten Down Two (micro age, runs) 10/1

 

Haydock

5.50 –

Punkawallah (all hncps+ micro TJC) 6/1 WON 6/1-10/1

Sakurajima (3yo+) H3 G3 15/2 UP

Frontline Phantom (micro runs) 25/1 UP

7.20 –

Calder Prince (all hncps+micro TJC+runs) ES I3  6/1 WON 6/1 >7/2

Alnashama (3yo+) H3 I3 9/1 UP

Lincoln Rocks (micro TJC) H1 G1  5/1UP

 

Beverley 

6.40 – Eller Brook (2YO) 14,30 8/1 UP

8.10 – Tin Pan Alley (all hncps) G3 12/1 UP

8.40 – Sarabi (3yo+) I3 14/1 2nd 8/1

 

Bonus

8.20 Hayd- Teodoro ES H3 I3 9/2 WON 9/2> 10/3  

 

SUMMER JUMPS

Newton Abbot 

3.15 –

Miss Mobot (hncp hurdle) ES 9/1  2nd 20/1 (nearly!)

Katy P (hncp hurdle) ES H1 7/2 UP

Miss Serious (micro 90 days) I3 11/1 UP 7/1

4.20 –

Best Boy Barney (hncp chase) I1 12/1 UP

Beuvron (micro going+age) H3 20/1 UP

4.50 – Chillian’s Well (hncp hurdle) H1 I1 11/4 WON 6/4

5.20 – Horse Force One (NHF) H3 I1 15/8 WON 8/13

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers from the report HERE

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 5/39,17p, -0.9) (Jumps: 9/58, +29.5) (total: 14/97, +28.6)

Flat…

6.40 Beverley – Eller Brook – 1 point win – 7/1 (gen) (NR just before,7s gen after reformed market) UP

Jumps…

3.15 NA – Miss Serious – 1 point win – 12/1 (bet365) 11/1 (gen) UP 7/1 * beating the market the only positive there. I was hopeful when money came. A tad keen and ran as if needing it. Well, she neither went forward nor backwards. I’d place the same bet again tomorrow at 11s. 

 

Eller Brook- well I am not one to go wading in with unraced 2 year olds that often but this one ticks a lot of boxes. Firstly she is a nice price, the type to take a stab on. Secondly the trainer is in the form of his life at the moment – 10/32,17p the last 14 days. He is 3/7,5p with all runners here in the last year. Now, he doesn’t have that many 1st time winners but this is the track he likes to bring them to. The TTP stats are for 3 years, but his 5 year course record with 1st time 2 year olds is 3/8,5 places. Then there is the horse- breeding is far from a specialism or interest of mine in truth but I did not how ‘precociousness’ is likely to be in the blood- she doesn’t look a slow developer on paper given her dam won over 5f at 2, and she is related to a couple of other 2 year old winners. So, all in all, there is plenty to go on there. She can’t actually tick any more boxes really for first time starter in my eyes and as such at that price, I had to have a go. Clearly you would like to see market support- Sir Alex Ferguson and friends (believe these are their colours) to lump on, and any drift would be a concern. But, my money is down. 7s is fair.

Miss Serious – another where I would like to see market support given the time off the track. Fitness is the only question really. As if she is ‘in form’ and fit, she out-runs 11/1 and I just couldn’t help myself at that price. Firstly Scott can ready them and this horse’s record in 61-90 day breaks is 1/3,3p. She hasn’t had a break like this since her early years. Then there are the race conditions – 3/6,5p at Newton Abbot,3/5,4p on Good to Firm, 2/3,3p OR 111-120. She is 1/6,2p in handicap hurdles so hardly over-raced in these conditions. There should be some pace to aim at here and I personally don’t like either of the Hobbs’ horses at the prices albeit no doubt one will leave me spluttering into my tea. There is enough to go on there for me. I would like to see her backed into 8s< and if the price holds, drifts, that will be another point loaned back to the bookies. I think there are holes in those at the top of the market/questions they have to answer and if Scott wanted to get a run into this one he should have sent her to another track, before returning here to plunder a prize. Some logic there. Hopefully she will be ready.

 

Of the rest..

Pleasant Surprise- probably too short for me but no doubt many of you are better judges than I of value at that end of the market. You may wish to note that Cumani is 4/9,8 places with handicap debutants at Donny in the last 5 years, so you usually get a run for your money.

5.50 Haydock- I couldn’t make my mind up with the two more lightly raced ones, I didn’t want to back both, and knew I would probably pick the wrong one, so left it. A couple of niggles for how I look at these things but will leave that there as not to put you off a horse which is never my intention – mainly as I am wrong often enough. Hopefully they run well. I wasn’t confident for a ‘tipping’ point.

Hannon’s one in the 2.50- those are solid track stats he has for 1st time 2 year olds at the track, indeed in 5 years… 8/29,15 places, +27 SP… as good a micro as you will get with that type- a back them blind one I think, if you like such systematic approaches. 9/2, 5/1, + Ryan Moore- well I have had a go.

7.20/8.20 Hayd are covered by the odd test strategy so with any luck one can land there. The CD jockey micros below support a few above also.

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3.Micro System Test Zone

July Trainer (any odds)

7.10 Bev – Chupalla WON 20/1

CD Jockeys 

5.50 Hayd – Punkawallah (any,9/2< best) WON 10/1

8.20 Hayd – Teodoro (as above) WON 9/2 

7.20 Hayd – Lincoln Rocks (any) UP

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Nothing to add today really. Not much outwith the normal posts happening on Saturday- no big sprint handicaps that I can see to attack on Free post, and nothing on Sunday either. From next Thursday we have the July Meeting and I will endeavour to find some big meeting stats of interest for that.

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

8 Responses

    1. Couldn’t believe that price. I had a go. Didn’t like 6s this morning in truth a drink know I would have ‘tipped’ him had he been 10s as big enough to overcome my niggles.. market sometimes clueless. Covered in CD Jocks in any case.

  1. I decided to cash it in,thats 20 losers paid for,have single on Teodoro,so happy days either way

  2. Hand me the gun…i didn’t do Chupalla….won 20/1…….
    Barack room language again…. I need shooting.

    1. Chin up Tony a long way to go this month and always next July! Bigger the odds the better with him and form means sod all. But hopefully you backed a winner or two somewhere. We can’t be greedy!

  3. The same applies to the Dascombe runners,he might provide a real big party pooper before the seasons out

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