Members Daily Post: 29/06/17 (complete)

quals + ratings pointers+ 6x Bet of the day…

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT

Newmarket

2.40 – Mistress Quickly (all hncps) ES  H3 G3 6/1 WON 4.4/1 (after R4) 

4.25 –

Ice Lord (all hncps) ES I3  8/1 UP

Ballymore Castle (micro class) 13/2 UP

 

Nottingham

4.35 – Yeeoow (all hncps) 9/1 IP

5.45 – Miningrocks (all hncps) H1 I1 G3 6/4 WON 4/6

 

Newbury

5.50 –

Diable D’Or (all hncps) 10/1 30 UP 

Pursuing Steed (micro going) H3  3/1 WON 3/1

7.25 –

Reaver (all hncps) 16/1

Buzz (micro going) 11/1

9.00- Maestro Mac (micro going ) I3 11/2

 

Hamilton

6.00- Fillydelphia (4yo+, + micro age) 20/1 3rd 12/1

7.00- Wee Jock (3yo+, + micro handicap debut) G3 6/1 WON 5.4/1 (R4) >5/2

8.10 –

Souls In The Wind (3yo+) I3 5/1  UP

Peach Melba (micro class) H1 I3 10/3 UP

Forever A Lady (micro runs)  ES I3 G3 14/1 UP

Duck Egg Blue (micro going IF good to soft) 25/1 2nd 25/1

 

8.40 –

Black Grass (all hncps) 10/1 2nd 7/1

Casterbridge (micro TJC) 13/2 UP

Salvatore Fury (micro runs) ES I3 16/1 UP

9.00- Top Of The Bank (3yo+) 

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H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 20 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers from the report HERE

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 2/25,12p, -1.2) (Jumps: 8/55, +24.5) (total: 10/80, +22.3)

This day is going to go one of two ways. There are 6 bets below, mainly as there are a load of lightly raced/unexposed types racing today and I remain convinced that is the main place to focus on the ‘tipping’ side. But we shall see. I seem to have glanced past the Dalgleish winner yesterday who fitted that bill- distracted by the Ryan runner I think- but had handful of starts,won maiden on GS, ran well over CD LTO on first run for 100+ days. 12/1. Didn’t register. Poor. The two flat winners so far were both unexposed types, and most of jumps winners have been the same. So, this could be a good or painful day with 4 rather unexposed ones, and a couple more who could have more to come in conditions…

 

2.40 Newmarket – Mistress Quickly – 1 point win – 11/2 WON 4.4/1

5.50 Newb – Diable D’OR – 1 point win – 10/1 UP

7.25 Newb – Reamer – 1 point win 16/1  +  Buzz – 1 point win 11/1 (gen) (14/1 Bet365)

7.00 Ham- Wee Jock – 1 point win – 6/1 WON 5.4/1 (R4) >5/2

8.40 Ham- Black Grass – 1 point win – 8/1

 

Mistress Quickly – looks like a stayer and ran well enough on her first handicap start LTO. She pulled a bit but travelled into it well enough- she just seemed unable to change gears in the latter stages but stayed on well enough. None of these have raced on soft I don’t think and the hope is this added emphasis on stamina may play to her strengths. Her sire’s off-spring seem to get all sorts of going and her action suggested she may cope with it fine. I would like to think Beckett wouldn’t risk her on it if he was overly concerned. The ground and climb to the line at this track may play to her strengths and she should be getting more experience with racing. It is impossible they race here more handily here as she looks a strong galloper in the making, to my dodgy eye at least. With any luck she will pay for the rest of the bets..

Diable D’or – is lightly enough raced and is having his second start over 7f and I thought he was worth taking a punt on. Breeding suggests this distance and further should be within range. I have watched his last race and don’t think he handled Goodwood at all. He travelled into the race smoothly enough, then got buffeted around as he hung towards the rail. He wasn’t balanced at all to my eye and the jockey wasn’t too hard on him. I just want to see what he can do on this more conventional track where he should just be able to gallop, no excuses. Lightly raced in handicaps and over this trip there should be more to come. In form also, he was going forward at the finish in 4th LTO, not out the back.

Reamer / Buzz… two flyers, but at the prices I couldn’t resist. Reamer is 2/10 on the flat but it was the step up in trip I found of some interest, moving up by 2f. Again breeding suggests this should be within range. I watched his Nottingham win on the first run of the season- they went a hell of a pace in that I think, over an extended 8f – he travelled smoothly and ran on well to win. Since then I think the races may have been too tactical/slowly run, and he hasn’t had a pace to aim at over 8f. While there isn’t loads of pace on paper here the 10f may unlock more and at that price I will pay to find out. Buzz… very lightly raced having his 4th career start. The last day went all wrong. It was his first run of the season and he was unfancied at 16s, suggesting he may have needed the run anway. In the end his race seemed over early- he got into some real trouble on the bend and then stumbled really badly. I think that may have knocked his confidence and certainly broke his rhythm. From there he was just allowed to coast home, not given a hard time at all. I think that was a valid excuse. He has some smart enough form last season, winning a maiden and the race of his first start has produced a few winners etc. He has an interesting profile and is a price. These both may drift and do nothing but there are reasons why they may not be far away.

Wee Jock- makes handicap debut here… I like the fact he has shown speed and is drawn against the rail here I think. He could get out and bag it, playing catch me if you can. There is a chance he just isn’t very good but he has a basement mark here in a shocker of a race and he won’t need to be anything special. RF rides for the yard for the first time. I think that is a weight thing- he carries 8-4 here. O’Shea, who is the usual go to man and rides a couple later on, has a lowest riding weight in the last 12 months of 8-5. There do not look any other front runners in here and his Geegeez speed figure is up there. Could be anything, and as such at 6s worth a dabble for me.

Black Grass – slightly more exposed one but still only 4/16 on turf which is lightly enough raced for a sprinter. Firstly he is very consistent and knows how to win, which is always a positive! I will put a line through that Ponty run- it came after a longer break than you would have expected from debut win and in first time visor. His last two runs have been more promising – what lured me in was running at this track, up this climb to the line. I think he has been a tad out-paced the last couple of runs on flatter tracks. With some pace to aim at here this could be the perfect CD for him. He handles cut and this is an easier race than LTO. Hopefully he can run a good race from top weight. We should get a run for our money.

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June Trainers

none.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

None.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Research Articles:-

I have re-posted the ‘repository’ post, with links to all past Members articles.

You can read that HERE>>>

It includes:-

Irish Angles: Read HERE>>>

Flat Jockey CD Specialists: Read HERE>>>

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Curragh: Irish Derby Festival…

I have done a bit of digging in HRB for this and have decided to focus on AOB. There are a few interesting micros/notes for the master of Ballydoyle that look exciting and with any luck may find us a decent priced winner or two. I post these up tomorrow. In the coming weeks we have the July Festival, Glorious Goodwood and Yorks Ebor Meeting later in August. Maybe a few other others in between. 

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

11 Responses

  1. Hi Josh,

    The weather’s creating a bit of guesswork but I’m presuming good/soft at Hamilton tomorrow…

    8.10 Duck Egg Blue (going gd/sft)???

    Also

    Newm- 4.25 Ballymore Castle (class)

    Mike

  2. Some Micros for the period July to September inclusive. I have kept them fairly simple. I have taken some from other places and came up with some myself. You can check them out via HRB etc if you wish? I will try to keep the site updated with performance subject to holidays.

    Warren Greatrex July to August, Hurdle races and NHF races;

    Sir Michael Stoute July onwards on the All Weather at Kempton, but 3YO’s only, class 4 to 6.

    Saeed Bin Suroor – Wolverhampton all weather, 7F+, 2 and 3YO’s only. And 2YO’s at Lingfield all weather, but not handicaps. Up until November.

    D Simcock – Handicaps at Chelmsford all weather up untl October.

    1. Hi Martin
      Always look forward to your input and will be looking with interest to the micros.

      Sir Michael Stoute micro you did not put a month when it ends

      Cheers
      Colin

  3. Nice start Josh. Only managed the 7/2 but at least it just about pays for the rest. (I dont suppose you can put them up the night before when you have so many up?)

    1. Hi Nick, god just pleased to get a winner.. that losing run was racking up! I’d rather not count it. Hopefully another can go in also.

      I try and get as much done the day before as I can. Sometimes not enough hours in the day and it gets to 6 ish, having been in the horse zone since 7am, and I just don’t want to look at horses anymore. A case can be made that attacking anything fresh in the morning is probably best. But I take your point. I try and get them posted asap, and these were up before 9- albeit if you are on your way to the office etc I doubt that helped much. 11/2 was around for a decent amount of time. I’ll endeavour to get any tips up asap.
      Josh

      1. Fair enough mate I understand. I do generally try and remember to get them on when I get to work but sometimes it can get in the way and when you have six its almost a case of getting them on as fast as you can rather than checking every bookmaker. Yeah fingers crossed for a couple more.

    1. Was it Paddy Power?? Apparently, according to the maths, R4s actually benefit the punter over time haha. Well I read that somewhere.

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