No micros etc.
A busy day for my Bet of The Day test in the Members’ area. It could be a good day or a painful one. 6 selections are below. The starting point for all was that they qualified against my Summer Stats pack (trainer stats)… let’s see how they get on…
Bet of The Day… (test) (Flat: 2/25,12p, -1.2) (Jumps: 8/55, +24.5) (total: 10/80, +22.3)
2.40 Newmarket – Mistress Quickly – 1 point win – 11/2 / 6/1 WON 4.4/1 (after R4)
5.50 Newb – Diable D’OR – 1 point win – 10/1 UP
7.25 Newb – Reamer – 1 point win 16/1 + Buzz – 1 point win 11/1 (gen) (14/1 Bet365)
7.00 Ham- Wee Jock – 1 point win – 6/1 WON 5.4/1 > 5/2 (10p R4)
8.40 Ham- Black Grass – 1 point win – 8/1 2nd 7/1
Mistress Quickly – looks like a stayer and ran well enough on her first handicap start LTO. She pulled a bit but travelled into it well enough- she just seemed unable to change gears in the latter stages but stayed on well enough. None of these have raced on soft I don’t think and the hope is this added emphasis on stamina may play to her strengths. Her sire’s off-spring seem to get all sorts of going and her action suggested she may cope with it fine. I would like to think Beckett wouldn’t risk her on it if he was overly concerned. The ground and climb to the line at this track may play to her strengths and she should be getting more experience with racing. It is impossible they race here more handily here as she looks a strong galloper in the making, to my dodgy eye at least. With any luck she will pay for the rest of the bets..
Diable D’or – is lightly enough raced and is having his second start over 7f and I thought he was worth taking a punt on. Breeding suggests this distance and further should be within range. I have watched his last race and don’t think he handled Goodwood at all. He travelled into the race smoothly enough, then got buffeted around as he hung towards the rail. He wasn’t balanced at all to my eye and the jockey wasn’t too hard on him. I just want to see what he can do on this more conventional track where he should just be able to gallop, no excuses. Lightly raced in handicaps and over this trip there should be more to come. In form also, he was going forward at the finish in 4th LTO, not out the back.
Reamer / Buzz… two flyers, but at the prices I couldn’t resist. Reamer is 2/10 on the flat but it was the step up in trip I found of some interest, moving up by 2f. Again breeding suggests this should be within range. I watched his Nottingham win on the first run of the season- they went a hell of a pace in that I think, over an extended 8f – he travelled smoothly and ran on well to win. Since then I think the races may have been too tactical/slowly run, and he hasn’t had a pace to aim at over 8f. While there isn’t loads of pace on paper here the 10f may unlock more and at that price I will pay to find out. Buzz… very lightly raced having his 4th career start. The last day went all wrong. It was his first run of the season and he was unfancied at 16s, suggesting he may have needed the run anway. In the end his race seemed over early- he got into some real trouble on the bend and then stumbled really badly. I think that may have knocked his confidence and certainly broke his rhythm. From there he was just allowed to coast home, not given a hard time at all. I think that was a valid excuse. He has some smart enough form last season, winning a maiden and the race of his first start has produced a few winners etc. He has an interesting profile and is a price. These both may drift and do nothing but there are reasons why they may not be far away.
Wee Jock- makes handicap debut here… I like the fact he has shown speed and is drawn against the rail here I think. He could get out and bag it, playing catch me if you can. There is a chance he just isn’t very good but he has a basement mark here in a shocker of a race and he won’t need to be anything special. RF rides for the yard for the first time. I think that is a weight thing- he carries 8-4 here. O’Shea, who is the usual go to man and rides a couple later on, has a lowest riding weight in the last 12 months of 8-5. There do not look any other front runners in here and his Geegeez speed figure is up there. Could be anything, and as such at 6s worth a dabble for me.
Black Grass – slightly more exposed one but still only 4/16 on turf which is lightly enough raced for a sprinter. Firstly he is very consistent and knows how to win, which is always a positive! I will put a line through that Ponty run- it came after a longer break than you would have expected from debut win and in first time visor. His last two runs have been more promising – what lured me in was running at this track, up this climb to the line. I think he has been a tad out-paced the last couple of runs on flatter tracks. With some pace to aim at here this could be the perfect CD for him. He handles cut and this is an easier race than LTO. Hopefully he can run a good race from top weight. We should get a run for our money.
That’s all for today.