Free Daily Post: 29/06/17 (complete)

6 horses of interest…

No micros etc.

 

 

A busy day for my Bet of The Day test in the Members’ area. It could be a good day or a painful one. 6 selections are below. The starting point for all was that they qualified against my Summer Stats pack (trainer stats)… let’s see how they get on…

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 2/25,12p, -1.2) (Jumps: 8/55, +24.5) (total: 10/80, +22.3)

 

2.40 Newmarket – Mistress Quickly – 1 point win – 11/2 / 6/1  WON 4.4/1 (after R4)

5.50 Newb – Diable D’OR – 1 point win – 10/1 UP

7.25 Newb – Reamer – 1 point win 16/1  +  Buzz – 1 point win 11/1 (gen) (14/1 Bet365)

7.00 Ham- Wee Jock – 1 point win – 6/1 WON 5.4/1 > 5/2 (10p R4)

8.40 Ham- Black Grass – 1 point win – 8/1 2nd  7/1

Mistress Quickly – looks like a stayer and ran well enough on her first handicap start LTO. She pulled a bit but travelled into it well enough- she just seemed unable to change gears in the latter stages but stayed on well enough. None of these have raced on soft I don’t think and the hope is this added emphasis on stamina may play to her strengths. Her sire’s off-spring seem to get all sorts of going and her action suggested she may cope with it fine. I would like to think Beckett wouldn’t risk her on it if he was overly concerned. The ground and climb to the line at this track may play to her strengths and she should be getting more experience with racing. It is impossible they race here more handily here as she looks a strong galloper in the making, to my dodgy eye at least. With any luck she will pay for the rest of the bets..

Diable D’or – is lightly enough raced and is having his second start over 7f and I thought he was worth taking a punt on. Breeding suggests this distance and further should be within range. I have watched his last race and don’t think he handled Goodwood at all. He travelled into the race smoothly enough, then got buffeted around as he hung towards the rail. He wasn’t balanced at all to my eye and the jockey wasn’t too hard on him. I just want to see what he can do on this more conventional track where he should just be able to gallop, no excuses. Lightly raced in handicaps and over this trip there should be more to come. In form also, he was going forward at the finish in 4th LTO, not out the back.

Reamer / Buzz… two flyers, but at the prices I couldn’t resist. Reamer is 2/10 on the flat but it was the step up in trip I found of some interest, moving up by 2f. Again breeding suggests this should be within range. I watched his Nottingham win on the first run of the season- they went a hell of a pace in that I think, over an extended 8f – he travelled smoothly and ran on well to win. Since then I think the races may have been too tactical/slowly run, and he hasn’t had a pace to aim at over 8f. While there isn’t loads of pace on paper here the 10f may unlock more and at that price I will pay to find out. Buzz… very lightly raced having his 4th career start. The last day went all wrong. It was his first run of the season and he was unfancied at 16s, suggesting he may have needed the run anway. In the end his race seemed over early- he got into some real trouble on the bend and then stumbled really badly. I think that may have knocked his confidence and certainly broke his rhythm. From there he was just allowed to coast home, not given a hard time at all. I think that was a valid excuse. He has some smart enough form last season, winning a maiden and the race of his first start has produced a few winners etc. He has an interesting profile and is a price. These both may drift and do nothing but there are reasons why they may not be far away.

Wee Jock- makes handicap debut here… I like the fact he has shown speed and is drawn against the rail here I think. He could get out and bag it, playing catch me if you can. There is a chance he just isn’t very good but he has a basement mark here in a shocker of a race and he won’t need to be anything special. RF rides for the yard for the first time. I think that is a weight thing- he carries 8-4 here. O’Shea, who is the usual go to man and rides a couple later on, has a lowest riding weight in the last 12 months of 8-5. There do not look any other front runners in here and his Geegeez speed figure is up there. Could be anything, and as such at 6s worth a dabble for me.

Black Grass – slightly more exposed one but still only 4/16 on turf which is lightly enough raced for a sprinter. Firstly he is very consistent and knows how to win, which is always a positive! I will put a line through that Ponty run- it came after a longer break than you would have expected from debut win and in first time visor. His last two runs have been more promising – what lured me in was running at this track, up this climb to the line. I think he has been a tad out-paced the last couple of runs on flatter tracks. With some pace to aim at here this could be the perfect CD for him. He handles cut and this is an easier race than LTO. Hopefully he can run a good race from top weight. We should get a run for our money.

**

That’s all for today.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

22 Responses

  1. What is the opinion of you all on the Ascot Gold cup.

    Ryan Moore is a great jockey and his judgement is usually spot on
    but on fast ground when it was hard to peg back ground in the straight
    he switched off Order of St George to such an extent that he had 10l to make up turning for home.

    off course he sweep past all the others but found the line coming just to soon.
    I know that the tactic worked last year but with it so easy to travel on the fast ground
    did he need to be so far off Big Orange?

    I feel that next year in the same race he will still be held off the pace but not so far behind Big Orange
    as he was this year.

    The ground he made up in the straight was extraordinary and it will be interesting how they
    match up in the Goodwood cup.

    Looking at the horses profile he has run a few stinkers but I think that is down
    to the fact they he leaves nothing at the track and has to be fresh to run well.

    That may be the reason they switched him off at the back so he doesn’t have a hard race
    but the way the race panned out he had a real lung busting burst over the last four furlongs
    trying to catch Big Orange and the race may blunt him for the rest of the season.

    I hope they are both still in training next year because to me this Ascot Gold cup
    was the best race of the decade.

    Ryan Moore doesn’t often get it wrong but I think he did this time.
    he may prove that is the only way to ride the horse and make me eat my words
    but for now I think he would do it differently given the chance.

    I am interested what other people think as I may be talking through my pocket a bit
    because I had a lumpy bet on St George.

    1. If you look at past results for Order O S G he is not one to trust fully? Not as dominant as you would have thought he should be and not one to trust at a short price?

      1. Fair Point Martin but why do you think he is so un reliable
        when he is good he is fantastic( won gold cup by 4l and Irish st ledger by 7l)
        but has been turned over at odds on in 4 of his last six races.

        I think he is a horse that has to be spot on fresh and if not can run real stinkers
        in that light he makes limited appeal for the Goodwood Cup.

        I Would put him away till September skip the Goodwood cup and the Arc
        give him a low grade prep and then run in the cadran.
        Then next year follow the same prep as this year and then regain his Gold Cup crown.

        Was looking at us Army ranger for Goodwood as he was 2nd in the Derby last year
        and has loads of stamina on the dams side(Dalakani,Darshann, Shirley Heights, Alleged Caeleon).

        He ran ok at Chester but ran a stinker in the Coronation cup but I think 2 miles will suit.
        with Big Orange also having a hard race at Ascot
        would be looking to take him and OOSG on in GC with US ARMY RANGER

  2. My 3 to follow that ran yesterday all had excuses to some extent.
    Another Day Of Sun appeared to hate the ground.
    Polar Light still looks a nice animal but will surely need 8f minimum.
    Cosmopolitan Queen was 2nd but will also need further to show her best.

    29th June 6f Fillies Nov Auc
    4.25
    3.75 One for June, Shoyd,
    3.5
    3.25 Queen Of Kalahari, Show Of Force
    3 Lexington grace, Isabella Mayson
    2.75 Cove Beach, Controversial Lady
    2.5
    2.25 Sienna Says
    2 Magic Applause, Changing
    Preview – Looks a weak race. Jonny Portman loves to win his sponsored race so his Show Of force might be worth a second look. Rossa Ryan takes off 7lbs for Richard Hannon on Lexington Grace.

    Prior race notes
    One For June – I found it hard to separate this one and Tulip Fever. Slightly less substance. Disappointing run. Must improve 2to, 70
    Controversial Lady – Small and modest looking filly. Typical Stan Moore debut. 60

    29th June Kempton 7f fillies Novice
    4.25 Dark Blue, Mahaarat, The Mums, Time Change
    3.75 Juliet Capulet, Tig Tog
    3.5
    3.25 Angel Of the South, Sunday Best
    3 Richenza
    2.75 So Crafty
    2.5 She Believes
    2.25 Arachina
    1.75 Dance Me, Moggy 1 Sukhovey .5 Filly Mignon
    Preview – Angel Of The South has been seen doing good work late and the step up to 7f might help. That said she was out early and is not the biggest and may yet again find one too good although she looks a solid place only bet.
    Dark Blue cost 75k which is top end for Mick Channon and he is in great from with his 2yos at present.
    Time Change would appear to be the obvious one and should not mind the going having only been beaten
    With 2 from John Gosden as well this looks as if it may be fun.

    Prior race notes
    Angel Of the South – Lightly made grey filly, well-proportioned if a fraction tubular. Not looking fully tuned but seems to have plenty of speed. Slightly harder ridden than Rock Of E. 77
    Angel Of The South – Happy with my pre-race assessment, broken by trying to go Mrs Gallagher’s pace early and her lack of scope found her out again. Quite a good front end but fizzles out, Should pick up a maiden but beginning to look expensive at 140k. 75
    Angel Of The South – Unlike Ascot, here she was held up just of the pace after a good start. Can’t criticize Robert Winston, just unlucky to have Ryan on the winner. This is what Angel Of The South is, a solid 75, tries hard but does not quite have the power to see of the better ones.
    Angel Of The South – Unlike Ascot, here she was held up just of the pace after a good start. Can’t criticize Robert Winston, just unlucky to have Ryan on the winner. This is what Angel Of The South is, a solid 75, tries hard but does not quite have the power to see of the better ones.
    Hugh

  3. From the other day…
    Fahey has shown to do well with his fancied (<25/1) handicap runners at Leicester/Nottingham/Warwick over 6f-1m1f.
    This year he is now 4/16,+3 BFSP, 2016: 9/41 +50, 2015:11/33 +77, 2014: 6/28 +18.
    He has one such runner today : 4.00 Nottingham, Golconda Prince, 5/2 available.

    1. Bernard; I have used a number of Tipsters, 90% awful about 5% decent blokes but poor tipsters and a few decent blokes and decent tipsters, the best all derived from independent proofing sites llike Racing Index or from reputable blogs like this. I have not heard of Paul Gargan; that should set off alarm bells as I have heard of most, but having looked at his website, one other thing alarms me greatly.

      He is based in Brighton, nice place and I will not slur it. However MANY known Betting/Tipping/Syndicate scams gave originated from Brighton and surrounding area, it seems a hot bed for 4-5 knows scammers and con men some of whom are/ have served time – Shoreham is the focal point for many.

      I would therefore tread with extreme caution and would never trust anyone who either does not proof or get recommended by sensible types on excellent blogs like this.

      1. Paul Gargantuan is OK I guess, my mate follows this guys tips but personally it’s not for me. This blog is better and helps form an opinion that is your own which is better for the long term game.

  4. 5.20 Newcastle

    20 years – 256 runners
    Class 2 or higher win, more than 1: 1/44
    7f places: 4-5: 0/43
    Days between last run and 2nd last run, more than 60: 0/29

    10 years – 116 runners
    Last five runs, NO top 2: 0/36
    Class 2 or higher runs, more than 10: 0/34

    Leaves Penwortham and Welliesinthewater both around 12/1.
    Strangely enough been in Penwortham this morning, if you believe in those sort of things – I don’t!
    🙂

  5. One for tonight. I think Vincenzo Coccotti looks overpriced in the 20:30 at Newbury. Back down to his last winning mark (albeit on the AW) he gets to race on fast ground for the first time this season which should be ideal given his only flat win was over good/firm not to mention his breeding. His trainer has had 2 winners and a 2nd in the past 10 days after going without a winner for the previous 6 months. He doesn’t bring many to the course but clearly likes to target it given he has had 2 winners from 3 runners in handicaps at the track in the past 2 years. Its also interesting that Hector Crouch gets back on board for the first time this year considering he was on-board both the horse’s wins at the back end of last year (2/4 overall) and has ridden a winner for the trainer recently. All three of his wins have come in fields of 12+ so today’s big field should be a bonus with plenty of pace on offer. The drift is a concern but he was a double figure price on all his wins so I doubt this is much of a gambling stable.

  6. Colin. Thanks for your reply. I agree with all you say and will avoid joining this guy. He has been sending me free tips and whilst they have had some winners I have not really taken much interest. Thanks again

    1. Hi Bernard- I have never heard of him, if that helps! Not in any of my networks/various email lists I am on, but that may not mean much! I would take Colin’s advice and use those various proofing sites if you are after tipsters. There are some decent ones, and very much depends on betting preference/style etc.

    2. Bernard, if it helps and I have no links to either but recommend both, the best long term tipsters proofed on Racing Index are Northern Monkey Punter and SP2A. They deliver a nice long term profit and customer service is excellent, neither are too expensive and both open to Q/A and helping you with clear betting bank and staking plans. The other very good tipster I use is a guy called Russell Blair off Racing Proofing.

      1. I have used Russell Blair in the past and the prices on his tips get destroyed in a very short period of time so unless he has added a text service for alerts or is measuring results based on SP or best available price 30 mins after posting I would be careful using him.

        1. Nick a fair point; and that did used to happen to me; so I adopted an approach of waiting until mid morning of the race involved and if the price was still attractive then backing win or each way as appropriate and to SP makes a consistent return of around 12%.
          The others I mention slightly higher returns with caveats that NMP if you follow his very clever staking/doubles/trebles and SP2A who are looking more at the bigger price e/w end of the market but who achieve 12-15% return to SP.
          There are though some very good and free tipsters on this blog, and you are very much one I respect and look at, so thank you for that.

          1. That’s fair enough but in this day an age he really should be offering that sort of service particularly he is well aware of the speed of which prices drop. I would be interested about information with regards to SP2A particularly when they post their selections and price volatility since there wasn’t much on their website with regards to information and there doesn’t seem to be a free or reduced costs trial.

          2. Nick, SP2A are a bit of a rarity in a way. They send out tips normally between 7-9am rare it is later than that. They tip 3-4 horses a day, occasionally a mini dutch (2 horses) in 20+ runner races. All tips come with a written explanation and they advise the median best available price and tell you bookies with best price and any offering enhanced odds. All the results though are recorded to SP. This under-estimates the returns and I have in 4+ years rarely if ever not been able to get an advised price if I have bet on tip within 10 mins of getting the email (also online access). There are also times when they advise a median available price and SP is higher, may be 10% of the time. They do have good consistent profit, if/when they have a poor month, tend to be honest about it and make subtle changes, I’ve made a nice return over 4 years. I joined on a trial from an email so might be worth dropping a contact via website or email them. I don’t think they do free trials but know from a friend who joined that they did a 3 month offer with money back guarantee and discount on advert price. (mention Colin Cross if you want to; might help you get a deal because they will know me a one of their regulars). Hope this helps. Regards Colin

          3. Hi Colin, I have a ‘twitter’ relationship with the SP2A guys, and have just messaged them. Going to look at sorting out a free trial period/or money back guarantee for RTP readers. I am very picky with what I recommend in terms of tipsters but you have given a glowing recommendation and given their public proofing etc I suspect some may be interested in giving them a go. Josh

          4. Josh, that’s great I am pretty sure some of your members will enjoy what they do, cracking tips again today from their Elite Service 1st/2nd in big race at Newcastle. Fantastic day for you too well done, all adds to the pot!

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