Members Daily Post: 22/06/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Ripon 

3.20 –

Tarboosh (3yo+) 14/1 WON 12/1 (r4)

Twentysvnthlancers (3yo+) 11/1 UP

Bond Bombshell (micro age) ES* (detailed in KEY) 25/1  UP

Lawless Louis (micro age) ES 11/2 2nd 15/2 

Ascot 

None.

JUMPS

Ffos Las 

7.10 –

West Torr (all hncp + chase + micro TJC) 13/2 3rd

Strumble Head (micro runs) 14,30 I3 8/1 UP

8.10 – Awaywiththegreys (micro runs) 14,30 I1 8/1 WON 8/1>3/1

8.40 – Princess Roania (micro runs) 14,30 I3  7/1 UP

9.10 –

Little Pop H3 I1 4/1 3rd

Sioux Chieftan (hncp hurdle) 30  7/1 UP

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KEY:

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 20 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers from the report HERE>>>

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 2/22,12p, +1.8) (Jumps: 8/54, +25.5) (total: 10/76, +26.3)

Sioux Chieftain– 1 point win – 7/1 (general) UP

There seems to be some money around for this one which is never a bad sign with this yard. We shall see if it is sustained. He ticks a few boxes for me. Firstly he is unexposed over hurdles, 1/3,2 places. In theory there should be more to come at some point, this being his third handicap hurdle. It is also his third run after a lengthy absence and it could be that he is about to come right. It looks like they have been patient with him. His last run showed some promise and was 57 days after his initial return having been off for a year. He ran well to a point there and the front three were clear of the rest- albeit the front two way ahead of him. He gets a tongue tie fitted here for the first time which may help with any finishing effort and in any case that fits the ‘doing something different’ category and is a possible reason for improvement – as is the fact he may be in peak condition now. He has come down 6lbs in the last two runs and Charlie’s 7lbs will help further, esp taking some of the 12st off. And finally, Newland is in form. 3/17,10 places the last 30 days, 0/6,3 places the last 14 days. I am taking on Little Pop who may well win here but he reverts to hurdling having been chasing for a few runs which is never easy. And at the odds I prefer to give SC a chance- he has more to come, at some point.

Other notes…

The 3.20 – well always a tad annoying when a few qualifiers in one race. As I write I have backed ES qualifier Lawless Louis at 13/2 last night. Seems to be some money around. They will find the key again at some point, and add to his 2yo wins. The two runs at Beverley over 5f showed some promise. He may just not like the AW and that ‘could’ be an excuse for the last day. Before that he ran over a stiff 6f and as yet no evidence he stays that sort of trip- certainly not at that track. He is ‘doing something different’ also- 1st time visor. IF that works he should be in the mix here, and gets the 3yo allowances etc, + another handy 3lb off his back. This looks a very competitive race where you could make a case for plenty. My job in these notes is not to put you off horses, rather make a positive case for the odd one- so I won’t mention the rest.

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June Trainers

8.10 FL – Awaywiththegreys (any odds, 13/2< best) WON 8/1>3/1 

8.40 FL – Princess Roania UP

3.20 Ripon – Twentysvnthlancers (18/1<) UP

3.Any general messages/updates etc

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ROYAL ASCOT: Day 3

Micro Systems

AOB 1

3.05 – Orderofthegarter 2nd  / Taj Mahal UP

AOB 2 (20/1< guide, 150/1>66/1 placed horse Day 2)

2.30 – Sioux Nation WON 20/1>14/1

GOSDEN (any odds, now 0/14,3p bigger 12/1)

3.40 – Coronet WON 9/1

5.00 – Hyde Park UP

STOUTE (12/1 <)

3.40 – Mori 2nd 

COX (16/1<)

2.30 – Koditime UP

Notes (against stats)

2.30 – Mcerin UP

3.05 – Mirage Dancer 3rd

5.00 – City of Joy UP

5.35 – Homesman (Dundalk 1st run) / Master Singer / Tartini

My Fancies *

*to be treated with some caution and not placed with anywhere near the amount of confidence as at a Cheltenham for example. Plenty of work needed on my flat ‘tipping’ game. 

(running total: 0/7,2 places, -4.5 points)

Hmm. That wasn’t a great day, esp as a clear draw bias appeared to develop- albeit pace was high on a few races – but in any case it is in the jockeys minds now. No luck in the Royal Hunt Cup. A couple of 3yo handicaps to close the card on Thursday and I think it best I leave those! I will see if anything above stands out albeit after 2 days my pin isn’t landing on the right ones.

From the main ‘micros’

2.30 – Koditime– 1/2 point EW- 18/1 (BV/PP/BSp) 16/1 (gen)

I have added this one in last and it would be typical for one of the two I have left for ‘tipping’, from the micros, to go and bolt up. It is hard to say this one can’t win given his draw and the impression he made over 5f on GF when winning on debut. The horse he beat since hacked up. The last day was over 6f on soft ground, and he pulled too hard. He still ran well enough considering. Cox does not tilt at windmills with his non handicappers here. Clearly if he goes off bigger than 16s then he could be in trouble. There are 4 places/5th odds with most bookies. Hopefully he can be thereabouts.

3.05 –

Order of The Garter – 1 point win – 11/2 2nd 10/3

Taj Mahal – 1/2 point win – 16/1 UP (4th)

Both of these ran decent enough races in the French Derby with the former having no luck up the rail/constantly blocked. Would have been closer but for that. He ran well on GF on his debut and hopefully copes with it here. Also gets the TT/CP combo for the first time. AOB does like to tinker and that may make the difference. TM is also running well enough and at that price I thought he was worth a dart. Pace was interesting also- I thought a slight chance one or both of these will try and make all… a 1-2 all the way round would be nice, if they can dictate they could be dangerous.

3.40 – Coronet – 1 point win – 8/1 WON 9/1

EW is probably wise as no doubt one of the top 2 will win and a saver on Mori may be no bad thing. But 8s seems decent enough. I wonder if Gosden will use his other two to set a strong pace here as she looks an out and out stayer I think- I was drawn to her win last October where the three horses who followed her home were Conco / Permian / Wings of Eagles. The first two have won some group races between them and the latter won the Derby. She clearly has ability. The hope is that she may be getting better with racing, this may have been the target, and this first run on proper fast ground may bring out more- it may not of course, but that is a difference. She was never going the last day and maybe just had a bad day at the office/didn’t like the track. I will trust in the micro and roll the dice.

5.00 Hyde Park – 1/2 point EW – 28/1 5 places (general, 6 places around) UP

Well I will ignore my own advice to leave the 3yo handicaps alone and may well pay for that! I will roll the dice with this one also at 28s. He is drawn on the right side on what we know and actually most of the pace seems high again. He also takes a step up in trip which is a reason for improvement. And I did note that Gosden/Lee are 4/12,6 places on the flat. I assume Frankie may have rode and Doyler is on his other in here- not sure if that was a choice or not. Lee’s record at the track is moderate enough but he can’t have ridden too many with chances, esp at the Royal Meeting. At that price I will take a flyer. On the right side, looks to be crying out for a trip, bred to stay further. May stay on and grab a place. Oh and Gosden liked winning this race in the early 2000s.

That will be it, tipping wise. A go hard, or most likely, go home day! I will trust the micros and you can make some sort of case for most of them to my eye. At least they all look progressive/open to further improvement. That should give us hope. Clearly Sioux Nation, the only micro not tipped, will bolt up now! (haha,well that was predictable,I hope you may have had something on! Over-thinking a 2 yo race from a man who prefers 3m chasers. As Mozzer would say, trust the stats!)  He looks like he has work to do and I am not sure the drop back to 5f on fast is in his favour, but who knows. Very best of luck if you follow me in. My 1 points are £5 notes at this meeting, as a sign of my own level of confidence in my flat ability at this meeting.