Free Daily Post: 21/06/17 (complete)

Royal Hunt Cup notes…

No micro systems/angle qualifiers I don’t think.

 

ROYAL HUNT CUP

My top 6 stats:-

  • 20/20 carried 9-5 or less after claims
  • 20/20 0-3 wins at distance
    • 19/20 had 0-2 (3: 1/58,11p
  • 20/20 19/20 had 1-4 runs this season (0.. 0/51,7p)
  • 10/10 yet to run above Group 3: (had run at Group 1+2 in career: 0/79,7p)
  • 10/10 running at same distance or drop in distance from LTO: not moving up in trip (0/67,9p)
  • 10/10 had won at least once in last 5 starts (0/92, 9p had not)

(as an aside those with 0 handicap wins are 0/61,5p)

 

Those leave: Banksea / Another Touch / Ballet Concerto / BoomShakerlacker / Fastnet Tempest / El Vip / G K Chesterton / Withernsea / Cote D Azur

4 year olds are the place to focus and older horses rarely win this, which removes Boom and Withernsea.

Claiming jockeys are 0/25,0p… that will do for Another Touch 🙂 (Fahey also 0/11,0p in the race)

Ballet Concerto ran in a G3 LTO, 0/21,3p. It could be argued he doesn’t look that well handicapped now either? And he looks a bit out of sorts although was badly hampered the last day. Dangerous taking on Stoute/Moore but you can’t back them all.

Horses sent off 50/1+ are 0/135, 6 places in last 20 years. Cote D Azur looks up against it in general to my eye.

 

That then, would leave 4:

Banksea – in form and chance there is more to come. Also a chance the handicapper may have got him now or in any case there are better treated rivals in here. Of interest that Spencer picks El Vip for me. He goes well fresh. Fast ground fine. 

-Fastnet Tempest – another in form horse who seems to be going the right way. Conditions look ideal and like many in here will need luck in running. Has 3 distance wins to his name now which is a slight neg, suggests may be more ‘exposed’ at the trip than some. Those with 3 dist wins 1/58,11p. I wouldn’t just let that stat put you off though. 

-El Vip – Could well receive a Spencer special here. I like him as a jockey. You may not. But you should note that he is 5/24,13 places, +31 SP in 8f handicaps at the track. He rides these big fields well. His MO is to settle the horse, get them into a rhythm, and ensure they finish off their race. Often that means he can leave it too late or run into traffic. It can be frustrating but I know what I am getting and I have to take the medicine sometimes. But most jocks would like his hanicap stats over CD here. He is 1/17,3p in the race over the last 20 years. This one needs settling and they usually go a sound enough pace in these races. He can track GK below and Cote DA who should be up there. He won with any amount in hand LTO. I have no doubt he is ahead of the handicapper still. 8s is as short as you would want to go I think. 

-GK Chesterton –another unexposed in form horse. He races up with the pace and has been able to dictate the last twice which may well have contributed to his victories. But there may not be loads of pace on here and as long as Buick doesn’t get into a pace battle he could save a bit. And he may not have to lead. He has only been doing just enough and there could be more to come. Given the form of connections in general and how they have started this meeting I will find it hard to leave him at 14s+.

 

 

Do with that information as you please. I won’t be ‘tipping’ as such in this but I may well have a nibble on all 4 of those. Albeit I need to look through Johnny Gs, who is 2/6 in this and a load of his hit some of my stats in the Members’ Area. I will definitely be having a 5va on El Vip and GK. This meeting is a bit of fun for me and if I can make some beer money then even better. It’s no Cheltenham 🙂 (on the staking front) 

 

**

Nothing else to add today.

GL with any bets.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

17 Responses

  1. 5.00 Wednesday Royal Hunt Cup (584 runners over 20 years)

    Latest three runs, no top 2 : 4/212
    Last win 2 runs ago: 1/68.
    Last placed 5 or more runs ago: 1/88
    Ran at 1m more than 10 times: 0/117
    Ran in handicap races more than 25 times: 0/59
    0-1 wins: 1/120
    More than 2 wins at 1m: 1/102
    Handicap wins 4/-5: 0/77
    Last win NOT in Class 2-4: 1/78

    5-7-8-9-21-24-25-26-31

    Too many to have a go at so looked at 10 year trends:

    10 years, 281-10

    Last run at less than 1m: 0/67
    Last win was more than 5 runs ago: 0/92
    Total wins NOT 2-4 : 1/119
    More than 1 Class 2 or higher wins :1/68
    6yo: 1/48

    So, I think all that leaves us with…

    El Vip 9/1
    Banksea 10/1
    GK Chesterton 16/1
    Bravery 33/1

    Many firms offering 5 places.

  2. 5.35 Ascot. Sandringham.

    20 years, 334 runners.

    Latest three runs, NO top 3: 0/51.
    Latest five runs, NO win: 0/59.
    Runs in past 90 days: NOT 2-4: 1/111
    NOT 2-3: 2/133
    No place in last 2 runs: 1/99.

    10 years, 190 runners.

    1 handicap run:0/40
    1 handicap place: 0/34
    More than 45 days between last run and 2nd last run: 0/56
    Last win shorter than 7f: 1/49

    Had to ignore the US horse Con Te Partiro as unable to grasp it’s form relatively.

    Left with : 10,11,14,16,22,23.

    Looking at trainers involved: Bell is 2 wins from 7 runners, Elsworth 1 win from 2, Gosden is 8 places from 17 runners so siding with theirs. The others are yet to register a win between them in this race.

    Cheval Blanche 22/1
    Present Tense 16/1
    Tisbutadream 25/1

    Many going 5 places ew again
    🙂

  3. Unlike last year where I was fairly confident when putting up Portage on here (having patiently waited for him to run for eight months following the previous year’s Cambridgeshire) I am struggling to find a confident selection in this year’s Hunt Cup. I think George William brings the best form to the table but with most of the pace drawn middle to high he has arguably got the worst draw and Levey would need to do a Tudhope-esque like ride to get him positioned in the right place. This has been the target for Banksea but the draw and the fact that Spencer has deserted him doesn’t fill me with confidence. I do want to have a small e/w bet on Von Blucher who looks overpriced at 50/1. He ran a number of solid races at this sort of level last year when trained by Gosden including a 3rd at the track in a big field class 2 worth £80k. He is drawn on the right side, has his ground and is a hold horse which you want in a race like this. You would expect him to have improved from 3 to 4 and he should come on for his re-appearance run. You could argue he is one of the least exposed 4yr olds in the field. If he was still trained by Gosden he would probably be a 20/1 shot or better.

  4. On the day yesterday I went for Murillo from paddock side with an ew on Aqabah in the Coventry.

    Today it seems the American horse is going to be difficult to beat, I am leaning toward Out Of The Sun but will wait till I’ve seen them all.

    21st June Ascot 5f Queen Mary
    4.25 Formidable Kitt, Happy Like A Fool, One Minute, Out Of The Flames
    3.75 Chica La Habana, Darkanna, Emilia James, Heartache, Maybride, Mother Of Dragons, Mrs Gallagher,
    3.5 Go Bananas, Neola
    3.25 Lady Anjorica, Missy Mischief, Now You’re Talking, Pursuing The Dream, Sirici
    3
    2.75 Bath And Tennis, Debutante’s Ball,
    2.5
    2.25 Mamba Noire, Treasuring
    1.5 Rioticism, 1.25 Wings Of The Rock
    Preview – Happy with the top four plus Mrs Gallagher as a shortlist. The betting at present suggests Happy Like A Fool is expected by Ward. Although I have not seen her in the flesh Neola from Mick Channon will also need a close look. Of the UK runners I would hope that Mrs Gallagher and Out Of The Flames can repeat what they did when they met at Ascot fto with the positions reversed.
    Prior race notes
    One Minute – small and kept rugged. Short bodied, not a lot of room for the jock. Well prepared by Mr Haggas and simply scooted clear after having to overcome a lot of bumping from Demon’s Rock. A default 75 for winning a maiden but not given with any confidence that she is not better or worse than this.
    Out Of The flames – Oh those Hannons, they knew this was a good one but it was hard to see that, she did not look quite fit enough to do herself justice today. Medium sized and deep girthed, holds herself well. Perhaps slightly less tall than Ertiyad and hard to know who might come out on top next time. Plenty left to work on and this may be the reason Ryan resorted to using the stick, I think they expected to win. 88
    Out Of The Flames – Well she did this easily enough in the end but I would think it was soon enough after her Ascot run. It is instructive to look at her picture today and compare it with her after the Ascot run. She is certainly fitter but looks to be running up a bit light. Maybe I have marginally over-rated her at Ascot, the question is whether as this looked a bit soon it is an even better performance than it looks to go with an Evans speedster and then win comfortably. Not inclined to raise her mark despite the win. 88 but could be higher.
    Mrs Gallagher – Small, and suffering here from the worst photograph of the field. In the flesh she was not downhill as she appears here and because the photo caught her as she prepared to buck both rear hooves are off the ground and she looks a bit tucked up. In a normal walk she looked more like a tiny tank. What a ride from Silvestre, she was far too free for the first 2f and then was passed as she entered the last 2f by Out Of The Flames with Ryan up. To get back up from half a length down and take this after wasting so much petrol early was a really pleasing performance. Looks like a 5f animal and if she settles better nto could feature at Ascot. A tough little battler and if settling better should improve again. 85+
    Hugh

  5. Paid Tipster I use (name irrelevant) had a great 1-2 in the 5.35 at RA yesterday and seems to do very well with his 2 year of tips his selections in the closing race today are-: On Her Toes advised at 11/1 + Dancing Breeze advised at 22/1 (Lads/Coral/ PP/ Sky g odds to 5th) – had 16/1 (adv 20/1) and 12/1 (adv 12/1) yesterday so hoping for a repeat! GL all

    1. oh nearly forgot his Hunt Cup tips are YUFTEN / GEORGE WILLIAM!…both each way odds to 5th and like Nick he tipped Portage last year.

  6. I like El vip in the royal hunt cup but this is putting me off.
    Michael Bell (31) and Luca Cumani (30) have seen all their runners since 2011 get beat at Royal Ascot. These 61 losers include 18 last time out winners and 15 horses at 8/1 or shorter.
    Handicap runners that had their last start on the All-Weather are just 1 win from 63 runners since 2011

    1. Hmm. Well, stats are there to be broken! El Vip is fairly short in truth for a race like this, not a ‘wade in’ wager.
      Cumani is 0/14 in this race over last 20 years, but 6 have been in the top 6, so enough of them seem to run well.
      In terms of AW- it will be interesting to see how Newcastle impacts that stat, if at all – esp as up to 1m it is all straight, no bends? It is very different to the other AW tracks, in that sense.
      But, those stats are not brilliant. Cumani is in fine form though. I have £5 on him for interest, we shall see.

    1. Oh it is a minefield. I have had a couple of small plays as above…having looked at the stats I felt I had to have a go at something Does look a right puzzle, probably wise leaving it alone.

    1. Ah.. well.. tricky.. in my geegeez cards it is down as 8f LTO, but RP says technically 7.5f… now most of those stats, all bar 4 runners i think, refer to horses running over 7f or less reallty- it is one of those- not many turn up having run over 7.5f LTO. Do with that as you please- if you like him and that is the one stat putting you off, I would still have a nibble. I prefer a couple of others over him but you never know. GL

  7. Ascot Royal Hunt Cup:
    Re miles per hour and named horses in stats:
    El Vip 35.84
    Banksea 36.44
    Fastnet Rock 36.41 (behind Banksea in same race “No Extra” was comment in RPost
    GK Chesterton 36.40.

    Other horses worth a mention are: Abe Lincoln 36.48
    Bravery 36.51
    Bullet Concerto 36.54
    Yuften 36.69

    Dark horse could be George William as only a nk behind GK Chesterton
    Gd lck

  8. 1 have recently placed two or three bets a week with Betfair Sportsbook. Nothing more than twenty pounds and no life changing wkns. First they decided to limit my take out to fifty pounds but now they have really co fused me. I can either have £00.00min or £00.00 max. This even applies to Ascot and football. The rule four adjustments are usually amongst this highest as are Paddy Power. Does anyone else have this problem.

  9. 5.00 Ascot (Thursday) Britannia

    20 years, 576 runners

    Last three runs, no top 2 : 0/121
    90 days runs NOT 1-4: 0/49
    Last placed 4 or more runs ago: 0/76
    3 or more runs at 1m: 0/127
    2 runs in class 2 or higher: 0/94
    2 handicap wins:1/68
    3 or more places at 1m: 0/39
    Last run, at 1m1f or further: 1/94
    Last run, NOT top 5: 1/165
    Break between lat run and 2nd las run, more than 180 days: 0/63
    Latest win on the AW: 1/80
    Latest win further than 1m : 0/55

    286-10 years
    Best in three runs, NOT top 2: 0/52
    90 day runs, NOT 1-3: 0/53
    Last run, NOT 1m: 2/145

    Rusumaat and Gilgamesh miss out by just one trend I think and Capezzano has done almost all his running in Meydan so very tricky to gauge here.

    I think it’s just Leader’s Legacy (14/1), Afaak (16/1) , Moritzburg (40/1), Lightening Fast (20/1) and Via Serendipity(40/1) who pass through unscathed.
    Pleased to see a couple of Irish ones make it through – those registering their latest win in Ireland are 2/18.

    🙂

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