What follows is a work in progress. These results cover all qualifiers and ratings pointers since the start of the Flat season 2017 through to 6th June. I need to also update the main Jumps stats and the Summer Jumps also but that will come at a later date, most likely in a couple of weeks time.
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Flat 2017
Spreadsheets
1.All Qualifiers: CLICK HERE>>>
2. Ratings Pointers: CLICK HERE>>>
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All Qualifiers
- 412 bets / 52 wins / 140 places (inc wins) / 13% win / 34% w|p / +36 morning|BOG / -57 ISP / -8 BFSP
- 10/1 – 25/1 (morning prices…what has worked well for Jumps)
- 178 bets / 12 wins / +3 morn|BOG / -34 BFSP
More analysis/angles to follow on those if I can find any. There is a solid foundation there for all qualifiers at the moment. That win % and win/place % is decent enough given there are no odds caps.
- 2 Year Olds Only Angle: 24 bets / 4 wins / +9.5 morning BOG
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Ratings Pointers
- All RP Horses
- 224 bets / 27 wins / -34 morn|BOG / -70 ISP / -50 BFSP
- I find it interesting that collectively these are performing poorly against just the ‘all qualifiers’,so far.
- Ratings Pointers 10/1+ (which worked well over Jumps, esp Geegeez…+99 BFSP at last count for 2017 up to end April)
- 84 bets / 4 wins / -37 morning BOG
- All RP horses, 6/1-16/1 (at moment that is the main ‘winning range’)
- 117 bets / 16 wins / +28 morning|BOG / +6 BFSP (after comm)
- 14% win SR / 24% ROI
- 117 bets / 16 wins / +28 morning|BOG / +6 BFSP (after comm)
HorseRaceBase
Top Rated
- 43 bets / 11 wins / +16 morn|BOG/ +14 BFSP
Top 3
- 81 bets / 9 wins / -20 morn|BOG / -22.5 BFSP
Inform Racing Speed
Top Rated
- 31 bets / 6 wins / +3 morn|BOG / 0 BFSP
Top 3
- 70 bets / 7 wins / -12 morn|BOG / -26 BFSP
Geegeez Speed
Top Rated
- 47 bets / 8 wins / +5 morn|BOG / -7 BFSP
Top 3
- 79 bets / 7 wins / -33 morn|BOG / -31 BFSP
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Focusing on the Ratings Pointers it would appear that, systematically at least, it is the Top Rated runners to focus on. For whatever reason the Top 3 Rated (so 2nd or 3rd rated) are having a shocker. Whether that is the nature of Flat racing- generally bigger fields>results more down to split second decisions|incidents than over the sticks.
Ratings Pointers Top Rated
- All Top Rated Runners (inc multiple ‘double/treble’ Top Rated)
- 121 bets / 25 wins / +24 morn|BOG / +7 BFSP
- All Top Rated Runners, any odds, just counted once
- 98 bets / 16 wins / +6 early|BOG / -6 BFSP
- Any Top Rated Runner, backed once, 6/1-16/1 ( on morning prices,as noted next to horse on blog post. Quals if in that range, SP/BFSP irrelevant)
- 36 bets / 7 wins / 15 places (inc wins) +32.5 morn|BOG / +24 BFSP
- Any Top Rated Runner, 6/1+ (morning prices, as above, no upper cap)
- 43 bets / 7 wins / 18 places (inc wins) +25.5 morn|BOG / +17 BFSP
- Bigger than 16/1 morn prices: 0/7, 3 places
- Only a matter of time before one wins, and given those odds ‘could’ be decent EW material. Small samples at moment.
- 43 bets / 7 wins / 18 places (inc wins) +25.5 morn|BOG / +17 BFSP
- Top Rated x1 (at least once) + 1x other rating (so double rated when at least one of those ratings is a H1,I1,G1)
- 55 bets /11 wins / +18 morn|BOG
- Double Top Rated (at least,includes triple top… H1 I1 G1)
- 14 bets / 5 wins / +10 morn|BOG
- Treble Top Rated (within those stats above)
- 4 bets / 3 wins / +12 morn|BOG
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I will leave that there for now. Friday I will dive into them a bit more and all quals.
But, SYSTEMATICALLY… it looks like focusing on Top Rated may be the best course of action, on the evidence to date. And with those diff permutations etc above. As with Jumps it looks like those under 6/1 generally pay for themselves/lose- systematically.
Hopefully you find some of that useful for now.
I will update on Friday with any luck.
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5 Responses
Top stuff Josh, I did wonder myself at the start of the flat season that probably the top rated runners would be the way in, and yes looking like it is.
Yep always essential to look at results and there is some solid data/no.s building at least.
Am pleased with the all quals- they are solid enough numbers and give hope for then adding in our own approach -ie you through your test, me and ‘bet of the day’ – enough winners/placed horses at nice prices to give hope that we will get it right eventually and make steady profits.
Yep Top Rated seems the way to go and that 6/1+ approach looks decent. Well if those stats repeated every 36-43 bets I think we would take that! But even half or a quarter of that profit>ROI, would be bloody good over time. A nice little micro to have increased confidence in. And every now and then I suspect it will find a 16/1-25/1 winner to really boost the nos. Quite stress free also given the average number of bets – prob 4-5 a week maybe, we shall see. Fingers crossed a good foundation for us to then play around with the rest.
Time will tell. But am pleased there seems to be a systematic way in with the RPs…was dreading there wasn’t when first looking!
Great stuff and thanks Josh for your sterling work. Racing To Profit goes from strength to strength. Not to mention the incomparable quality of analysis and comments from many of the members.
Is it possible for you to do these monthly results/ price analysis to BSP as well? Personally, I find morning/BOG prices prices out of reach quite frequently, whereas I can always bet to Betfair’s SP.
Thanks.
Hi Patrick,
cheers. Always trying…possibly unlike some of the horses i back haha.
Yep I will take a look at BFSP.. I know it won’t be as good but as an ROI may not bee too bad actually, esp for the Top rated ratings pointer stuff. It is a good sign they are backed generally, but agree if they could do well to BFSP that would help. I don’t think too many of them drift massively so could be a case of taking a price on the machine also/
With the morning/BOG odds I put on blog I try and take a fair assessment across a few bookies etc. And of course many will bet them the evening before, often possibly at bigger odds.
I suppose that depends on what accounts you have available and what time you look though.
Josh
Hi Josh,
You are talking about top rated from three different sources. I have access to Geegeez but wondered where I might find the other two ratings. Are they all available somewhere on your site or do they have to be purchased? Regards Ken